The oil thread

[LeoE]

Damn, so much for that H&S pattern

 

[WallStreetHero]

ive got in at 50, hoping to sell at 51.

 

[Mike2000uk]

I was short Brent Monday at 51.08. Bottled it after it bounced off 48.00 and closed at 49.20 but made a half decent profit.
I was hoping the Euro would be weakening before Thursday, as the ECB should be cutting rates or quantative easing, thus strenthening the dollar and putting downward pressure on crude. Doesnt seem to be happening though and Im not a currency expert so maybe Im just completey wrong!

Anyone got thoughts on this?

Threads a good idea.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Also. How do people think the G20 summit will affect prices? Will people be euphoric about the possibilities, or is the lack of demand just too much?

 

[elitejets]

Awful demand fundamentals did not stop the price rallying last week but signs that Opec members are relaxing cuts with the rise in prices will be more negative.
If the US dollar gets stronger it will put downward pressure on prices ... thats the only way I see the G20 affecting crude.
Weekly candle/bar for crude is very bearish so I'm sticking to the charts ...
Nicola

 

[Mike2000uk]

I dont think it will do too much, unless it really lifts the equity markets. Crude seems to following the optimsim in the markets a lot during the recent rally and even ignoring worsening fundementals.

Im dithering about whether to short again before tomorrows ECB meeting. Dont have enough faith in my convictions.

Potentially a new support level between 46.00 - 47.50?

 

[elitejets]

A lot of the equity rally seems to be due to the financials here and tne anticipation that FASB will relax mark to market rules so its not really lifting crude (really what has changed?).
I show we just broke a rising trendline on the 4hr from Feb so I am holding my short.
Nicola

 

[Mike2000uk]

well, no ECB quantative easing, a measly .25 cut, stronger euro, doller weakens. Crude surges!

What a difference a day makes.

Im regretting that short position now

 

[escudoturbo]

Noticed in FT this morning WTI is cheaper then Brent, anyone know a reason for this? production/refinement capacity down somewhere? any room for exploitation (I dont trade energies so can't do anything myself)

 

[elitejets]

Noticed in FT this morning WTI is cheaper then Brent, anyone know a reason for this? production/refinement capacity down somewhere? any room for exploitation (I dont trade energies so can't do anything myself)

WTI numbers have been cheaper than Brent for months because of the big build in inventories of US crude and the contango.
US prices are skewed IMO and 25% of the lots in US crude traded are the USO ETF, which is swayed by public sentiment.
Short of renting a tanker and sending it west across the atlantic not sure how you can profit from it.

 

[SSINGH]

crude oil inventories increase and oil ticks up in price.....does this make sense???

Can anyone explain this??

 

[SSINGH]

i just heard on Bloomberg that this is a relief rally.....relief of what... relief that inventories didn't go down...so prices go up?....

starting to get the feeling of market manipulation!

 

[elitejets]

crude oil inventories increase and oil ticks up in price.....does this make sense???

Can anyone explain this??

The industries own figures released last night showed a build had doubled, the market priced that in and then the govt figures today were better than that. There was a big drop in the distillates which was also a factor today.
Two other factors affect crude prices ... the indices (watch the dow or S&P) as it is seen as a forecast of future demand so crude will often follow direction of indices ... and the US dollar, crude is priced in USD so if the value of dollar decreases then it is upward pressure on crude price.

Best way to trade it is TA on the charts
Nicola

 

[LeoE]

crude oil inventories increase and oil ticks up in price.....does this make sense???

Can anyone explain this??

What elitejets said, the inventories rose less than expected, which is, in a very odd way, good news

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I wonder if $50.00 May CL will be tested on the close tonight, or whether we'll see steady prices?

It's a significant level psychologically so will be interesting....

$50.40 as I type this

 

[investcdn]

Recession vs. depression?
How about recession vs. collapse? This is the question Gregor Macdonald asks, and he favors the latter answer. His prognosis? “Based on historical studies, the asset that will survive any endgame of global deflation is gold – with oil also being considered ‘Not as money, but as a store of value.’”

Market Data and Economic Research for Mining, Oil and Gas

 

[LeoE]

Although oil will disappear eventually, gold won't. I've often wondered how much the last barrel of oil will sell for? It's a weird concept to think of.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

When we get to that point, we'll have found something else or else we will all have disappeared.

 

[bigtymer292929]

I trade it soley using candlesticks, pivot points, and volume. Sometime especially here lately it is like a slot machine that cannot miss. I also employ stochastics. With the volatility of the market right the the price swings are phenomenal to take advantage of.

 

[bigtymer292929]

I think there are to many systems out there right now if people would just get back to the basics like the old timers I think they would see improved results. Keep It Simple Stupid that's so true