The oil thread

[cyrustajik]

hey
Any one know whats the deal with Oil forward curve at the moment?
Spreads have gone crazy. Fronts are heading up and backs are still going lower!!!
any info would be appreciated.
Cyrus

 

[SAINT]

The drop on friday was due to the weaker durable goods orders.

Alphaville has a couple articles relating to the flattening of the curve.
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Discorrelation alert
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » The perils of a flat WTI curve and a cold winter

 

[Nostradamus359]

my view for today

 

[stuey]

I will post up the api and doe figures on this thread from now on. I will get them on here 2 mins after they come out on bloomberg

 

[Nostradamus359]

sure

 

[stuey]

API for 10 nov 2009

Expected- CL -3.2m, Gas +0.5m, Dis +1.7m
Actual- CL +1.2m, Gas +1.4m, Dis +0.6m

 

[SanMiguel]

Took the short from 79.75 today from 1hr resistance and 2 candles spiking - worked out nicely.
Seemed like the USD was bought in big quantities as it went up across the board or down on xxxUSD pairs so wa sprobably due to that particularly on USDCAD.

 

[SanMiguel]

Am looking to buy in the 76.75 region.
Does anyone use volume analysis in their trading for WTI?

 

[piparb]

I also short oil

Took the short from 79.75 today from 1hr resistance and 2 candles spiking - worked out nicely.
Seemed like the USD was bought in big quantities as it went up across the board or down on xxxUSD pairs so wa sprobably due to that particularly on USDCAD.

Oil will come down now , maybe 5 dollars more , take care with long trading at oil.
Once I buy a long after the oil go 10 $ down , than the oil fall again 8$ .
Loss of 160000 $ on my account , so I learn : long shorts are longer than longs....:cheesy:

 

[piparb]

Volume for oil

Am looking to buy in the 76.75 region.
Does anyone use volume analysis in their trading for WTI?

Yes I use it to messure the mass of the oil :smart:
More mass , more longer move .....more points per trade .... more $$$$ :cheesy:

 

[SanMiguel]

What strategies do you guys use to trade WTI?

 

[yiehom]

My strat

What strategies do you guys use to trade WTI?

I am on the learning curve.
I like to trade oil on the inventories, when volatility is at its best.
I wait 20' after the release then I follow the trend. That's it.
I have also noticed that it reacts at other releases, such as NFP as well.
Anyone got an idea what is best correlated to oil, directly or inversely?

yiehom

 

[piparb]

correlation on oil

Watch the devises and the share indexes , I had 4 charts open of each = sum 8!!!
If any of them make long moves than oil will come later in this direction .
How long I don't know , but I take this moves to make entries .
Also take care of long shorts , you will never get them
I scalp my 50 to 300 pips a day , so I got enough points win :cheesy:
Long moves over 2 hours at not my thing , because I got not enough patience to break
even ..... You must not have patience , because noboby could trade longer than 2
hours through !!!! exept newbies ...
I trade 6 years and now my trades are 10 minutes to 1 hour long and when I let them go
longer I get a margin call on the account .
The most nessesary is a good stopmanagment and the entries are very difficult to find.
It takes me 4 years to learn my entries chose well , that is very difficult to learn .
Today I practise my stopmanagment , I'm not shure in this after 6 years !!!

Good trading to all , and never give up :clover:

piparb

I am on the learning curve.
I like to trade oil on the inventories, when volatility is at its best.
I wait 20' after the release then I follow the trend. That's it.
I have also noticed that it reacts at other releases, such as NFP as well.
Anyone got an idea what is best correlated to oil, directly or inversely?

yiehom

 

[SanMiguel]

I trade 6 years and now my trades are 10 minutes to 1 hour long and when I let them go
longer I get a margin call on the account .

lol - you obviously have no idea about money management then?!

 

[yiehom]

I believe the best inex to watch for correlation is SnP , but can't figure out wich currency ?

Watch the devises and the share indexes , I had 4 charts open of each = sum 8!!!
If any of them make long moves than oil will come later in this direction .
How long I don't know , but I take this moves to make entries .
Also take care of long shorts , you will never get them
I scalp my 50 to 300 pips a day , so I got enough points win :cheesy:
Long moves over 2 hours at not my thing , because I got not enough patience to break
even ..... You must not have patience , because noboby could trade longer than 2
hours through !!!! exept newbies ...
I trade 6 years and now my trades are 10 minutes to 1 hour long and when I let them go
longer I get a margin call on the account .
The most nessesary is a good stopmanagment and the entries are very difficult to find.
It takes me 4 years to learn my entries chose well , that is very difficult to learn .
Today I practise my stopmanagment , I'm not shure in this after 6 years !!!

Good trading to all , and never give up :clover:

piparb

 

[piparb]

Ideas yes money no

Sometimes my strategies work but sometimes not , so I must control my managment.
I think the diszipline is the problem .... better I make a programm for this , let me
say that controls me , when I trade .

lol - you obviously have no idea about money management then?!

 

[macdSurfer]

Revealed: 50 oil tankers loitering off British coast as they lie in wait for fuel price hikes
Last updated at 9:56 AM on 20th November 2009
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/wor...ering-British-coast-lie-wait-price-hikes.html

 

[pelzar]

i believe the best inex to watch for correlation is snp , but can't figure out wich currency ?

eur/usd

 

[SanMiguel]

eur/usd

or usd/cad for inverse.

 

[pelzar]

You trade alot of oil sm?