dbphoenix
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Not necessarily. He doesn't assume the office for another two months.
Not necessarily. He doesn't assume the office for another two months.
yes but I referring to the now, personally I do not take trades based on "what is going to happen".
Dollar is back up, yen is the weakest, Swiss went soft after being the strongest (now in no man land with aud and cad), euro went down quite a bit (union next to break after the brexit and Us election.... power back to the people....f@ck the establishment and the radical chic), kiwi is still strong (but rate reduced).
EDIT: Sterling gently shifting up.
The anxiety of the financial world has dissolved in less than a day and are backing the results......for now.
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dbphoenix
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One bright spot, for those who know the context:
The 2016 election was a catastrophe for LGBTQ rights. There was, however, one bright spot in this suffocating brume: In North Carolina, Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper appears to have unseated Republican Gov. Pat McCrory. On Wednesday, Cooper claimed victory over McCrory with 100 percent of precincts reporting. A margin of 4,772 votes separates the two candidates; McCrory can request a recount, but it’ll be difficult to overcome that relatively sizable margin.
The 2016 election was a catastrophe for LGBTQ rights. There was, however, one bright spot in this suffocating brume: In North Carolina, Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper appears to have unseated Republican Gov. Pat McCrory. On Wednesday, Cooper claimed victory over McCrory with 100 percent of precincts reporting. A margin of 4,772 votes separates the two candidates; McCrory can request a recount, but it’ll be difficult to overcome that relatively sizable margin.
dbphoenix
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And another . . .
This was one of those races that by 3 a.m. I had just assumed Democrats had lost hours earlier, but hey look at that: New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte is still trailing her Democratic challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan, by about 700 votes with all precincts in. Hassan has declared victory, but the race hasn't been called and Ayotte hasn't conceded. How about that?
If Hassan holds on through whatever last-minute ballots may be discovered and assorted other lawyering, Democrats would end the night with a net pickup of two Senate seats for a total of 48, if you include the two independents who caucus with Democrats. That sure is something.
This was one of those races that by 3 a.m. I had just assumed Democrats had lost hours earlier, but hey look at that: New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte is still trailing her Democratic challenger, Gov. Maggie Hassan, by about 700 votes with all precincts in. Hassan has declared victory, but the race hasn't been called and Ayotte hasn't conceded. How about that?
If Hassan holds on through whatever last-minute ballots may be discovered and assorted other lawyering, Democrats would end the night with a net pickup of two Senate seats for a total of 48, if you include the two independents who caucus with Democrats. That sure is something.
Does she turn you on?
piphoe
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Some one please explain to me, other than being despised, what crime did she actually commit that deserve her going straight to jail?
maybe you'll be the first
dbphoenix
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George Bush lost 22 million.
How is it even possible to email that much?
piphoe
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Oscar Reed
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From IG in Melbourne.
Can the Don deliver inflation?
Very few predicted a Republican clean sweep. One US investment bank had this outcome at a 6% probability in their trading playbook around the event. I admit I had succumbed to the various election probability models on offer from various pollsters and aligned my strategies around these. Never again it seems, the social change happening in the developed world is for all to see, and one has to wonder about the French and German elections in 2017. A win for Marine Le Pen in France or the AfD party in Germany may not result in a one day sell-off as it will radically increase the prospect of a break-up of the European Monetary Union (EMU). A worry for another time.
What we have seen in financial markets has been breath-taking and led by the US fixed income market. Like many, I had been concerned market participants would be worried about Trump’s relationship with the Federal Reserve and a number of their key trade partners (such as China and Japan), but again this concern is for another time. Right here, right now, traders have viewed the combination of a cut in corporate tax (equating to around 0.5% of GDP), sizeable infrastructure spend (I’ve seen numbers between $500 billion to $2 trillion) and a corporate tax repatriation window providing a massive boost to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Throw in trade barriers (such as a 45% trade tariffs on Chinese goods) and a move to bring production back to the US means that prices will increase (inflation) and in-turn the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to be more aggressive in tightening policy in 2017. Trump will borrow and build – it’s what he has done his whole life and it’s what he will do as President of the United States.
The US ten-year treasury closed Tuesday’s trading session at 1.85%, but fell 14 basis points (bp) to 1.71% during the panic and pandemonium in Asia when it was clear that Florida was not going Clinton’s way. It is now at 2.06%, so an incredible 35bp reversal! US five-year inflation expectations (again, I’ve looked at the bond market) have increased to 2.10%, a huge 17bp increase and US inflation expectations are now at the highest level since August 2015. The US yield curve has steeped dramatically (longer maturity bonds have sold off more than shorter maturity bonds) and US financials have flown as a result, with the financial sector up 4.3%.
The prospect of a Fed hike in December fell below 50% in Asian trade yesterday, as traders saw the uncertainty of a Republican clean sweep as cause for concern. However, this probability now stands at 82%, so with equities finding buyers, the Fed have been given a green light to hike. More importantly though, the interest market has got excited about the prospect of inflation (driven by fiscal stimulus) and is now pricing in not just one full rate hike in 2017, but a 16% chance of a second. We have seen three and a half quantitative easing (QE) programs from the Fed since 2009 and now ‘Trumpnomics’ and fiscal stimulus is going to finally create growth...let’s see.
The S&P 500 is up over 1%, and it’s hard to remember whether the S&P 500 futures have ever traded down to their daily limit (of 5%) only to finish in positive territory! We have also seen buying in commodities, with incredible gains in iron ore futures (+9%), steel futures (+2.6%) and copper futures (+3.4%). US crude has rallied 5.5% from its low and this all means huge gains for Aussie stocks today.
As things stand, the ASX 200 is eyeing an open at 5331, so a gain of 3.4%. The Nikkei 225 should open 1000 points or 6% higher, led by a huge reversal in the JPY (USD/JPY is up 450 pips from the low of ¥101.20). BHP is likely to open 10% higher (based on its ADR), while CBA should push over 3% higher. Gold stocks may struggle given spot gold is $65 off its session high of $1337.
Given the monster sell-off we are likely to see in Australian fixed income, I would expect sharp underperformance in any stocks that trade as a quasi-bond. Sectors like REITS, staples and utilities may struggle today, but for today, the combination of huge gains in materials, fiscals and energy should push the ASX 200 3.4%. If it closes at that level, it would be the strongest gain since 6 October 2011
Can the Don deliver inflation?
Very few predicted a Republican clean sweep. One US investment bank had this outcome at a 6% probability in their trading playbook around the event. I admit I had succumbed to the various election probability models on offer from various pollsters and aligned my strategies around these. Never again it seems, the social change happening in the developed world is for all to see, and one has to wonder about the French and German elections in 2017. A win for Marine Le Pen in France or the AfD party in Germany may not result in a one day sell-off as it will radically increase the prospect of a break-up of the European Monetary Union (EMU). A worry for another time.
What we have seen in financial markets has been breath-taking and led by the US fixed income market. Like many, I had been concerned market participants would be worried about Trump’s relationship with the Federal Reserve and a number of their key trade partners (such as China and Japan), but again this concern is for another time. Right here, right now, traders have viewed the combination of a cut in corporate tax (equating to around 0.5% of GDP), sizeable infrastructure spend (I’ve seen numbers between $500 billion to $2 trillion) and a corporate tax repatriation window providing a massive boost to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Throw in trade barriers (such as a 45% trade tariffs on Chinese goods) and a move to bring production back to the US means that prices will increase (inflation) and in-turn the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to be more aggressive in tightening policy in 2017. Trump will borrow and build – it’s what he has done his whole life and it’s what he will do as President of the United States.
The US ten-year treasury closed Tuesday’s trading session at 1.85%, but fell 14 basis points (bp) to 1.71% during the panic and pandemonium in Asia when it was clear that Florida was not going Clinton’s way. It is now at 2.06%, so an incredible 35bp reversal! US five-year inflation expectations (again, I’ve looked at the bond market) have increased to 2.10%, a huge 17bp increase and US inflation expectations are now at the highest level since August 2015. The US yield curve has steeped dramatically (longer maturity bonds have sold off more than shorter maturity bonds) and US financials have flown as a result, with the financial sector up 4.3%.
The prospect of a Fed hike in December fell below 50% in Asian trade yesterday, as traders saw the uncertainty of a Republican clean sweep as cause for concern. However, this probability now stands at 82%, so with equities finding buyers, the Fed have been given a green light to hike. More importantly though, the interest market has got excited about the prospect of inflation (driven by fiscal stimulus) and is now pricing in not just one full rate hike in 2017, but a 16% chance of a second. We have seen three and a half quantitative easing (QE) programs from the Fed since 2009 and now ‘Trumpnomics’ and fiscal stimulus is going to finally create growth...let’s see.
The S&P 500 is up over 1%, and it’s hard to remember whether the S&P 500 futures have ever traded down to their daily limit (of 5%) only to finish in positive territory! We have also seen buying in commodities, with incredible gains in iron ore futures (+9%), steel futures (+2.6%) and copper futures (+3.4%). US crude has rallied 5.5% from its low and this all means huge gains for Aussie stocks today.
As things stand, the ASX 200 is eyeing an open at 5331, so a gain of 3.4%. The Nikkei 225 should open 1000 points or 6% higher, led by a huge reversal in the JPY (USD/JPY is up 450 pips from the low of ¥101.20). BHP is likely to open 10% higher (based on its ADR), while CBA should push over 3% higher. Gold stocks may struggle given spot gold is $65 off its session high of $1337.
Given the monster sell-off we are likely to see in Australian fixed income, I would expect sharp underperformance in any stocks that trade as a quasi-bond. Sectors like REITS, staples and utilities may struggle today, but for today, the combination of huge gains in materials, fiscals and energy should push the ASX 200 3.4%. If it closes at that level, it would be the strongest gain since 6 October 2011
piphoe
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5. You must say this sentence to everyone you meet today: "HILLARY CLINTON WON THE POPULAR VOTE!" The MAJORITY of our fellow Americans preferred Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Period. Fact. If you woke up this morning thinking you live in an effed-up country, you don't. The majority of your fellow Americans wanted Hillary, not Trump. The only reason he's president is because of an arcane, insane 18th-century idea called the Electoral College. Until we change that, we'll continue to have presidents we didn't elect and didn't want. You live in a country where a majority of its citizens have said they believe there's climate change, they believe women should be paid the same as men, they want a debt-free college education, they don't want us invading countries, they want a raise in the minimum wage and they want a single-payer true universal health care system. None of that has changed. We live in a country where the majority agree with the "liberal" position. We just lack the liberal leadership to make that happen (see: #1 above).
Let's try to get this all done by noon today.
https://www.facebook.com/mmflint/posts/10153913074756857
Let's try to get this all done by noon today.
https://www.facebook.com/mmflint/posts/10153913074756857
mike.
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It's been a good and interesting thread Pat started here, proves that everyone on here with their different views and beliefs can actually get on with each other and have a intelligent and interesting debate without personal insults....I wasn't a trump fan, nor hillary for that matter, but it was not our election, the people of America voted for their president like we voted for Brexit, love it or loath it but that's democracy... I hope he can achieve what he claims he's going to do, Maybe all the nasty comments were just campaign hot air, Anyway, time will tell...Now, get that UK trade deal signed off big Don. 
Dodgy as hell. I never heard about this.
dbphoenix
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Clinton's chief crime was and is being a woman. She was under attack from the moment she dared to consider herself an equal to her husband, back when they first married. She knew she had something to contribute. She was expected by her family to contribute. Unfortunately, she chose politics in a misogynistic society. She and Obama had one chief characteristic in common: they were both "uppity". And it drove the right crazy that they weren't paying for it. And now Republicans are practically giggly about the situation in which they find themselves, particularly McConnell.
Atilla
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9/11 inside job, false white flag wars on Iraq. You sure you didn't hear about any of this? No WMD found! How were they supposed to cover up all that mess.
Bush asked other countries for donations to help rebuild Iraq and in exchange for donations they'd get lucrative contracts. $20+ bn dollars just disappeared from Iraq, could not be accounted for.
Dick Cheney's Halliburton went from being a $500m company to being one that is worht $40bn with the Iraq war. (Click on the MAX to see chart in years).
They'd sell an HP printer for $5K and charge $50m for delivery due to security concerns. All those black ops and private security companies are just ex soldiers in private holding charging 100x more being paid in cheap oil. It is literally a private army. Iraq war cost US trillions. Didn't all go on weapons as they were already built if you think about it. Paying off all the war machine whilst US marines died killing innocent people and torturing them.
They effed Latin America, with their big banks lending money to juntas whilst people tried to service debt they couldn't afford at interest rates that were exorbitant. Then they turned their attention to ME once communism died out and there were no more commy geurillas to fight.
Axis of evil and all that sh!t. Spring uprising and they don't like our freedoms. I keep telling ya dude, they love our freedoms and democracy cause that's why they are all coming over.
People here talk about Obama raising US debt Bush did the same killing innocent people. Obama has done it improving the health and well being of US citizens.
Republicans are about as dirty filthy cheating thieving liers as anyone else if not more.
I reckon every administration has dirty laundry and no one will want private correspondence to be leaked or discovered so simply erase it. Job done.
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