The Next US President

tomorton said:
Hi TexasRangersFan - your feelings behind your post on US / western policy in the Middle East seem really genuine, and you sound concerned with peace and freedom in the region.

That's all fine, but surely wrong. The foreign policy of any country is the furtherance of its own national interests, not other people's. Our strategy in the Middle East can be seen as a campaign to destabilise aggressive hostile regimes. Some regimes have been toppled externally some internally and some are currently neutered by insurrection and civil war - Iraq, Syria, Libya for sure. Maybe also Egypt, Tunisia, the Yemen, Turkey. And let's not under-estimate how Russia feels obliged to ramp up its commitment to Syria, right at a time when they can least afford it and would rather be possibly committing to other fronts.

Its a dirty game, but I'd rather be on the winning side.
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Yeah, you are right, it's a dirty game. And I would rather live my life at the top of the food chain than at the bottom.
 
There are a lot of smart,informed people on this forum...it's interesting.

Here is the most recent update a day before the election.

We'll see how it goes.

-------------------


It is becoming increasingly possible for there to be a tie in the Electoral College with each candidate winning 269 electoral votes. In that case, Trump would win since, in the House, the Republican Party controls 33 state delegations and each state has one vote regardless of how many Congressmen it has.

Here's how it could happen:

• Start with Trump winning all of the states Romney won, including North Carolina -- which now appears likely. That's 206 votes.

• Then, add in Trump wins in Ohio and Iowa where he is and has been ahead. That's 230.

• Then, add Florida where Trump is now tied, having come back in recent days. Early voting tells the story. Romney lost the early voting by 161,000 votes and then gained among Election Day voters but only enough to lose the state by 74,000. Trump is now only 32,500 behind in early voting, so, if he gets the same Election Day bounce, he'd win by 60,000 votes. That's 259.

• And in Colorado, entirely a vote by mail state, 7,000 more Republicans than Democrats have voted so far and Trump is likely to carry the large unaffiliated vote by a good margin. That's 268.

• For the one remaining vote Trump needs to tie, Maine has changed its system so the statewide winner only gets two electoral votes and the remaining two are determined by how each Congressional District votes. One of the districts is solidly Democrat and the other is Republican. That's 269 and a tie.

• Beyond 269? That's iffy. Trump needs to pull an upset in New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20) or Michigan (16).


http://www.dickmorris.com/come-269-...s&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
 
TexasRangersFan said:
There are a lot of smart,informed people on this forum...it's interesting.

Here is the most recent update a day before the election.

We'll see how it goes.

-------------------


It is becoming increasingly possible for there to be a tie in the Electoral College with each candidate winning 269 electoral votes. In that case, Trump would win since, in the House, the Republican Party controls 33 state delegations and each state has one vote regardless of how many Congressmen it has.

Here's how it could happen:

• Start with Trump winning all of the states Romney won, including North Carolina -- which now appears likely. That's 206 votes.

• Then, add in Trump wins in Ohio and Iowa where he is and has been ahead. That's 230.

• Then, add Florida where Trump is now tied, having come back in recent days. Early voting tells the story. Romney lost the early voting by 161,000 votes and then gained among Election Day voters but only enough to lose the state by 74,000. Trump is now only 32,500 behind in early voting, so, if he gets the same Election Day bounce, he'd win by 60,000 votes. That's 259.

• And in Colorado, entirely a vote by mail state, 7,000 more Republicans than Democrats have voted so far and Trump is likely to carry the large unaffiliated vote by a good margin. That's 268.

• For the one remaining vote Trump needs to tie, Maine has changed its system so the statewide winner only gets two electoral votes and the remaining two are determined by how each Congressional District votes. One of the districts is solidly Democrat and the other is Republican. That's 269 and a tie.

• Beyond 269? That's iffy. Trump needs to pull an upset in New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20) or Michigan (16).


http://www.dickmorris.com/come-269-...s&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
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Knife edge stuff. Is it really that close ! The markets would suggest not, however, the markets got Brexit completely wrong. My own canvasing re the Brexit vote (even in Scotland) was that remain voters were thin on the ground. All anyone was talking about was leaving the corrupt EU and their opportunity to kick our own establishment.

The markets this time are suggesting a Clinton win, but again that is based largely on polling. You could have the same situation here, where the silent majority, all with axes to grind, vote for the anti establishment candidate ! They are hardly likely to go around voicing their support for such a devisive candidate, but will be very vocal in their distrust of all things Government.

My own thoughts are that certain disadvantaged demographics are going to turn this result, just as happened in the UK.

Be prepared for a shock result. I think you have it coming !
 
counter_violent said:
Knife edge stuff. Is it really that close ! The markets would suggest not, however, the markets got Brexit completely wrong. My own canvasing re the Brexit vote (even in Scotland) was that remain voters were thin on the ground. All anyone was talking about was leaving the corrupt EU and their opportunity to kick our own establishment.

The markets this time are suggesting a Clinton win, but again that is based largely on polling. You could have the same situation here, where the silent majority, all with axes to grind, vote for the anti establishment candidate ! They are hardly likely to go around voicing their support for such a devisive candidate, but will be very vocal in their distrust of all things Government.

My own thoughts are that certain disadvantaged demographics are going to turn this result, just as happened in the UK.

Be prepared for a shock result. I think you have it coming !
Click to expand...


Hope you right.

DT wins.

Same strat as the Brexit.

Buy some shares you want dirt cheap and hang on to them for a few months.

Might pick up some divs and bit of capital growth.

But if HC wins, keep trading small ranges for a few days at a time.
 
Oscar Reed said:
Hope you right.

DT wins.

Same strat as the Brexit.

Buy some shares you want dirt cheap and hang on to them for a few months.

Might pick up some divs and bit of capital growth.

But if HC wins, keep trading small ranges for a few days at a time.
Click to expand...

Woah, don't get ahead of yourself.

If Trump wins.......the markets tank !
If Clinton wins......the markets tank less !

In any event, I don't see upside.

Remember, if Clinton wins, there is a rate hike just around the corner.
 
counter_violent said:
Woah, don't get ahead of yourself.

If Trump wins.......the markets tank !
If Clinton wins......the markets tank less !

In any event, I don't see upside.

Remember, if Clinton wins, there is a rate hike just around the corner.
Click to expand...

The shares I look at are yielding around 6% at the moment.
Decent tank might be able to pick up at 9%
It will force Aussie/Asia fund managers back into the market.
3% in the bank at the moment.

Also Asian funds are leveraging into commodity's at the moment.
Any correction there will be picked up.
Commodity rally should carry on into 2017.
Plenty of demand for grains.


And don't forget the Santa rally.:LOL:

All IMO
 
EARLY voting: Trump 32, Clinton 25
from midnight vote totals in the state of New Hampshire!

Going to be a loooong day...

GO TRUMP
 
I am not sure who I prefer to win, maybe my heart tells Trump, he needs help (who does not?), he is fragile, but through his fragility you can perceive humanity.

Clinton, she seems flat, she does not inspire me, I would never talk to her...

My mind prefers Clinton to win, so Us put the rate up, Australia will follow and the housing market in Sydney collapses so I can buy at the bottom....
 
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Fugazsy said:
I am not sure who I prefer to win, maybe my heart tells Trump, he needs help (who does not?), he is fragile, but through his fragility you can perceive humanity.

Clinton, she seems flat, she does not inspire me, I would never talk to her...

My mind prefers Clinton to win, so Us put the rate up, Australia will follow and the housing market in Sydney collapses so I can buy at the bottom....
Click to expand...

 
Well today is THE BIG DAY and it is finally decided. At last some may say. Dump will query the result if he loses, but what the heck............

The bookies odds are Hillary 1/5
Trump 4/1

Looks like Hillary will win then

:clap:
 
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The main 2 candidates may not be very popular so why don't the voters vote for a 3rd candidate ?
I suppose nobody really knows much about them to answer my own question. Big money and vested interests don't want some veggy chewing unknown to take over, so it is not even on the cards of possibility yet. It takes someone of Trumps outgoing personality to force himself onto the attention of the voters. A pity he has such a poor quality in other fields.
 
Pat494 said:
The main 2 candidates may not be very popular so why don't the voters vote for a 3rd candidate ?
I suppose nobody really knows much about them to answer my own question. Big money and vested interests don't want some veggy chewing unknown to take over, so it is not even on the cards of possibility yet. It takes someone of Trumps outgoing personality to force himself onto the attention of the voters. A pity he has such a poor quality in other fields.
Click to expand...

I think that they appeared earlier on- are they called the primaries?--an American is needed to put me right on that. These are the two remaining ones--God Help America!(y)
 
I have a question for our U.S. friends voting today . . .

Here in the U.K., if a voter doesn't like any of the candidates on offer, they have the option of 'spoiling' their paper. This can take a number of forms, e.g. putting an 'X' in all the available boxes or scribbling 'none of the above' - or something to that effect. The returning officer notes the number of spoiled ballot papers which then goes on public record. I always encourage people (usually youngsters) who otherwise wouldn't vote to do this because, by doing so, they are exercising their right to vote and thereby acknowledging the democratic system - albeit with many flaws - and, at the same time, making a powerful statement that their views are not represented by any of the candidates. IMO, it's a great pity more people don't do this for, if they did, politicians would sit up and take notice.

So, my question is: does the same thing happen in the U.S. - will spoiled ballot papers be officially recorded? If so, and if I was a U.S. citizen voting today - this is what I'd do.
Tim.
 
Splitlink said:
I think that they appeared earlier on- are they called the primaries?--an American is needed to put me right on that. These are the two remaining ones--God Help America!(y)
Click to expand...

Primaries are over, we're in general election.
Only way clinton can lose it is if Trump wins Pennsylvania...if this happens I think my brain will explode
 
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