The Journey from the Basement

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Cognition
:eek:
i thought pre-cognition was the main requisite in the start chamber :LOL: ...
Anyway :| when we gonner stop messing around with volume and get onto some pure price action!? :cheesy:
 
First test.

That's right. Up till my appearance on this thread a lot of cheek and rudeness and disrespect was offered wholesale. All this is stopped. I will not tolerate it neither will the others, the difference is that I am prepared to do something about it, whilst the others duck it. Any more of it and out comes the Mallet.

Not withstanding the previous we welcome like minded people who behave properly.

I have just had a cup of tea and a muffin in my garden with another Market Veteran who came
to visit and has jsut left. He is older than me and a pioneer in his own right. We have different
perspectives on all this but in the end agree on nearly everything albeit from different viewpoints. This afternoon we were talking about how it is that traders can be made to see in
a chart anything they want to see. I mention this because it is relevant to what follows:~

First part:~

In the chart above the timeframe is 6 minutes.

If you look at the same market action in a slower chart, say 10 minutes or 12 minutes,
you will see the same information. The difference is in the detail. Otherwise either chart
will show the same outcomes developing.

In the 6 minute chart displayed above, in pure supply demand terms, the two big volume bars do not look right, that is the visual problem. This visual problem may prevent you from being certain of the most likely direction the action would be likely to take. This is because you are
too close to the action to be able to see the whole picture. I will expand further.

Let us suppose we visit an art museum, like the Tate in London, the Louvre i n Paris, or the
Museo del Prado in Madrid, or the Rijksmuseum in Amsterdam. It does not matter which one
we visit all of them have paintings on display. Many of these are very large canvases.

Suppose we approach a large painting. The best way to look at and enjoy(benefit) from it is
to stand back and take in the whole scene. Then if there is some detail in it that attracts our
attention we are likely to approach it to get a closer look.

When we have thus approached it we can now focus on the detail that caught our eye in the
first place. In doing this there is and opportunity cost (This means going without one thing
in order to have another), meaning that if we are too close we cannot now enjoy (benefit from)
the whole thing.

In this there is a lesson :~ You have to choose between the detail and the whole thing.
Fortunately with regard to the painting it is easily achieved by approaching and withdrawing.
Fortunately with software it is also achievable by alternating from one timeframe to another in order to attain the same effect. You don't have to lock your interest onto one timeframe only.

Second part:~

If you try to analyse all of what happens in the chart in great detail, you miss the major detail. very similarly to people who are not accustomed to visiting Art Museums and Galleries.
Thae major detail in this chart is that at the beginning we see a top with considerable volume
under it, this volume up till this point has been causative. The mood changes and the volume drops off and the price begins to decline. We now observe that the price does not recover.

The price is nowhere near breaking the previous top and going higher.
The price is sliding down gently down a gently inclined but slippery slope, and inexorably,
it is losing ground all the time. The presence of the volume is inconsequential because it only serves in this case of a 6 minute chart to distract the eye from the real drama developing, which is that the price is going down, not up!

If you allow your attention to be diverted away from the MAIN EVENT IN THE OFFING of course you will become confused. As far as this chart diplays, there still is no bottom announced.
Therefore this market action is not finished, this means this falling price has more potential distance to fall until it does stop, which is not yet.

You see how concentrating on the wrong things can mislead you into uncertainty.
You must try to eliminate uncertainty and train yourself to act decisively and stick to it.
 
darktone said:
:eek:
i thought pre-cognition was the main requisite in the start chamber :LOL: ...
Anyway :| when we gonner stop messing around with volume and get onto some pure price action!? :cheesy:

Be patient Darktone, all in good time I promise.
 
Animal Lessons

Now , what about the Animal Lesssons ?
Have any of you had any realisations ?
Otherwise I am not going to post if you are not going to derive benefit, I am prepared to put in effort to help you ~ now let us have some feedback please.
 
Well – I said things about the Alice allegory so here’s a bit more


1 What does the queen most closely represent? I think she is the market.
“In her mind there is no distinction between what is true and what is false, what is a crime and what is mere folly or mistake. She does not understand what is happening around her, so she chooses simply to punish what is beyond her and keep things at her intellectual level”. “She is a tyrant whose main fiat is “off with his head””.




2 In the market who most closely represents the three gardeners? The garden ers are 5the small market players
“"And who are these?" said the Queen, pointing to the three gardeners who were lying around the rose - tree; for you see, as they were lying on their faces, and the pattern on their backs was the same as the rest of the pack, she could not tell whether they were gardeners, or soldiers, or courtiers, or three of her own children.”


3 Why is it that Alice did not lose her head?
When the procession came opposite to Alice, they all stopped and looked at her, and the Queen said, severely, "Who is this?" She said it to the Knave of Hearts, who only bowed and smiled in reply. "Idiot" said the Queen, tossing her head impatiently; and, turning to Alice, she went on :"What is your name, child?"
"My name is Alice, so please your Majesty," said Alice very politely; but she added to herself,
"Why, they are only a pack of cards, after all. I needn't be afraid of them!"


"And who are these?" said the Queen,

"how should I know?" said Alice, surprised at her own courage. "it is no business of mine".The Queen turned crimson with fury, and, after glaring at her for a moment like a wild beast, began screaming, "Off with her Head!". "Off - "Nonsense!" said Alice, very loudly and decidedly, and the Queen was silent.

Perhaps Alice was lucky or perhaps she was naïve. Or perhaps she had already learned a lot about the cards that made up the Queen’s court


4 Why is the duchess under sentence of execution?
"Where's the Duchess?" "Hush! Hush !" said the Rabbit in a low, hurried tone. "She is under sentence of execution." "What for?" "She boxed the Queen's ears---" the Rabbit began. Alice gave a little scream of laughter. "Oh Hush!" The Rabbit whispered in a frightened tone. "The Queen will hear you!

The Duchess had perhaps disobeyed the rules and punished some players who then resolved to destroy her


5 What parallels do you see between the markets and


"Go to your places!" shouted the Queen in a voice of thunder, and people began running about in all directions, tumbling up against each other; however, they got settled down in a minute or two, and the game began” ??

How does the trading day open?

and with this

“Alice thought she had never seen such a curious croquet-ground in her life; it was all ridges and furrows; the croquet balls were live hedgehogs, and the mallets live flamingos, and the soldiers had to double themselves up and stand on their hands and feet, to make the arches.”

How easy is it to play a game on this sort of pitch, with this sort of equipment and knock balls through indistinguishable targets?



No one has responded to discuss my little questions so far –these are some possible responses – what do you think of them.



If you were Alice what would you have done?
 
Blimey Rog - that's enough to give me a migraine!
I'll need to go out and get some reading glasses now!
Computers hey!
Q
PS - I'm having a few issues myself with this rollover day! :LOL:
 
Ron, your point size is rapidly diminishing again.

Or, am I missing the point?
 
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I don't understand why its happening but I understand how.
I am copying and pasting froma word document and it comes out HUGE in the wisiwyg editor so to reduce the size I use letter size 1 - this still leaves it big on my screen.

Is this any better - To do this I copied and pasted from the post back into the editor

Well – I said things about the Alice allegory so here’s a bit more


1 What does the queen most closely represent? I think she is the market.
“In her mind there is no distinction between what is true and what is false, what is a crime and what is mere folly or mistake. She does not understand what is happening around her, so she chooses simply to punish what is beyond her and keep things at her intellectual level”. “She is a tyrant whose main fiat is “off with his head””.




2 In the market who most closely represents the three gardeners? The garden ers are 5the small market players
“"And who are these?" said the Queen, pointing to the three gardeners who were lying around the rose - tree; for you see, as they were lying on their faces, and the pattern on their backs was the same as the rest of the pack, she could not tell whether they were gardeners, or soldiers, or courtiers, or three of her own children.”


3 Why is it that Alice did not lose her head?
When the procession came opposite to Alice, they all stopped and looked at her, and the Queen said, severely, "Who is this?" She said it to the Knave of Hearts, who only bowed and smiled in reply. "Idiot" said the Queen, tossing her head impatiently; and, turning to Alice, she went on :"What is your name, child?"
"My name is Alice, so please your Majesty," said Alice very politely; but she added to herself,
"Why, they are only a pack of cards, after all. I needn't be afraid of them!"

"And who are these?" said the Queen,

"how should I know?" said Alice, surprised at her own courage. "it is no business of mine".The Queen turned crimson with fury, and, after glaring at her for a moment like a wild beast, began screaming, "Off with her Head!". "Off - "Nonsense!" said Alice, very loudly and decidedly, and the Queen was silent.

Perhaps Alice was lucky or perhaps she was naïve. Or perhaps she had already learned a lot about the cards that made up the Queen’s court


4 Why is the duchess under sentence of execution?
"Where's the Duchess?" "Hush! Hush !" said the Rabbit in a low, hurried tone. "She is under sentence of execution." "What for?" "She boxed the Queen's ears---" the Rabbit began. Alice gave a little scream of laughter. "Oh Hush!" The Rabbit whispered in a frightened tone. "The Queen will hear you!

The Duchess had perhaps disobeyed the rules and punished some players who then resolved to destroy her


5 What parallels do you see between the markets and


"Go to your places!" shouted the Queen in a voice of thunder, and people began running about in all directions, tumbling up against each other; however, they got settled down in a minute or two, and the game began” ??

How does the trading day open?

and with this

“Alice thought she had never seen such a curious croquet-ground in her life; it was all ridges and furrows; the croquet balls were live hedgehogs, and the mallets live flamingos, and the soldiers had to double themselves up and stand on their hands and feet, to make the arches.”

How easy is it to play a game on this sort of pitch, with this sort of equipment and knock balls through indistinguishable targets?



No one has responded to discuss my little questions so far –these are some possible responses – what do you think of them.



If you were Alice what would you have done?
 
I would like some help with the twig bird from Socrates please. My post 809 and Neil’s 810 refer.

Neil has given me a pm explanation of my water muddying – I hope he will not mind if I publish it now.

The few accumulate (feed), others notice and a feeding frenzy ensues (value of product goes up).

The few notice that supplies have run out or will do so. The many keep bidding for resources that suddenly are not there

Prices crash as each "Prescott" (more than one = nightmare) sees that resources have dried up and tries to sell his "promissory note" to a dimmer "Prescott", but even the "Dimmers" notice the empty cupboard. The Twig Birds are long gone, but put the log on the scanner to detect new activity as worms re-colonize the log.

If you see the bandwagon - don't get on: because it's too late.

Now - I just want confirmation of “The many own a bit of paper that says " pay the bearer one juicy worm", but no worms are left, not even a few to push prices higher on scarcity value”
I have been under the impression that there are always a few who will pay a high price for a scarce desirable product. Am I being stupid or difficult or both when I do not understand why the product is not seen as desirable?
 
The Twig Bird

Rognvald, I can see you are working very hard at this and therefore you deserve an explanation.
The Twig Bird is an allegory to represent a very astute category of trader. Bramble pay attention.
This trader does not employ a scattergun technique and trades for the sake of trading,
because of boredom, or greed, or impatience, or other inalbilities. This one knows exactly
what he ought to be doing and does it. he does not do what he should not be doing.
He waits for a price to hit a bottom, he wants to be assured it is the the bottom.
The indicators will not tell him, but what will tell him is that the price does not fall further
and in addition bigger players have entered the market and are buying. He deduces that
they are buying because their footprint is volume. These big players keep on buying
until there is no more available stock. They have now temporarily cornered the market.
You will notice that on every subsequent buying raid, the volume diminishes. This is
because what is available is becoming more and more scarce. When it becomes so
relatively scarce that demand overcomes the supply available, there has to be an
adjustment to the price, North. The other asute players who are watching this recognise
what is going on and join in. Now there is present in this scenario in this particular theatre a core of bullish participants.
The scarcity has not gone away, because as higher prices can now palpably be anticipated,
only those who do not understand or are mad gamblers go short. The price continues to
climb until the move is exhausted.

On No Indicators Revisited thread:
See Postings nos.785# 765# Page 20
687# Page 18
645# Page 17
625# Page 16
536# 558# Page 14
483# 490# 493# Page 13
474# Page 12

All the attached thumbnails to these postings illustrate variants of the Twig Bird technique.

[Mods note: the above references start from this point on the No Indicators Revisited thread, and while the numbers don't exactly line up with the posts, Socrates is referring to his description of price and volume action on charts posted by others
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=101512&postcount=527]
 
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SOCRATES said:
No, not a climax. A climax is accompanied by exceptionally hi vol.

OK, hope u like it and it helps you.

BTW, all the above takes place in Net Present Time,
by professionals who have a view,
and not by amateurs with opinions
see above.
 
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Animal Lesson No 2 ~ Alice and the Croquet Ground

The explanation relating to Alice in Wonderland is imminent, and is currently in the final stages of preparation.

Right here we go:~

I consider it a shame that wonderful allegories such as The Adventures that Alice experienced in Wonderland which Lewis Carroll wrote for young chlildren is ignored by older children, much older children and much much older children who would derive great benefit from reading them as they deliver very valuable models, which when examined from the point of view of traders and aspiring traders are apt to yield for the imaginative and alert, very valuable realisations.

Throughout the story the important fact to grab is that Alice is a little girl who does not lose
sight of the fact that she is a little girl, albeit in an unfamiliar environment, in which she
may be often puzzled, but retains the ability to reason and to challenge, and ultimately
to remain calm and to act according to her reason. These are key points you should not
ignore.

The world she encounters is a topsy turvy world, in which nothing is as it seems and nothing seems as it is. This is very much like the world that you encounter when you enter the domain of trading. If you enter this world as a playing card or a white rabbit it would appear to be a normal one, but to a little girl in full control of her faculties it is very far from being normal.
But this world has a structure all of its own, with its own rules and customs, pecking order,
power structure and so on. The world of trading is not unlike in it some respects, and if it were not so serious, it would be funny.

But it cannot be funny when ordinary people enter a domain with which they are not only not familiar, but they do not consider it merits the gravity of attention that it does, and think that this is a game anyone can play, of course.

Here we have a scenario in which everything is baffling. The Croquet Ground is uneven, the Cards make up the hoops, the Hedgehogs are the balls and the Flamingoes the mallets.
Everyone plays at once, no one bothers to take turns. The Cards move about and swap places.
The Flamingoes cannot be relied upon to cooperate. The Hedgehogs unroll themselves at will and perversely wander off. Everybody fights over whose turn it is and over the Hedgehogs.
The Queen gets more and more into a furious passion, stamping about and shrieking.

Here are the parallels:~

The markets are not there for your benefit.
They have their own rules of
play and engagement that you are prevented from understanding.
Your own human inabilities ensure thet even when everything is explained very clearly,
you still do not grab it.
Therefore all the outcomes appear random, perverse, contrary, unexpected.
From time to time the rules are suddenly changed without warning.
And often the field is given sudden tilt away from the level.
And in addition, the goal posts keep being changed all the time.
And the boundary lines of the field itself are also moved about.

No wonder indicators do not work, or other excuses to exonerate you from grafting.
For you to have realisations you have to do more than change the way you think , you have to change yourselves, and ultimately the way you are.
When you have changed yourselves you can never be the same again, ever.
This is why darksiders are in the absolute minority.
If you enter this domain of darksiding you need not look to find a challenge,
the challenge will find you instead. That is the lesson.
 
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spike said:
Nice one.

"We do not see things as they are but as we are".

When we are ordinary human beings, we are conditioned to view everything from the point
of view that prioritises our survival. Therefore the survival mechansism is the strongest
reflex humans naturally develop in order to conform with this natural survival prioritisation.

This causes us to behave in certain ways in ordinary life. This is accepted human behaviour.
It is even accepted if not fully understood even when we are wrong.
Laws are put in place to protect society when the consequences of persistenty being wrong as a consequence of this innate reflex crosses boundaries that infringe the collective well being of society.

Therefore in civilised societies certain safety nets can be put in place for this purpose
for the common good.

This survival prioritisation mechanism does not work in the markets.
Because there are only two outcomes, either right or wrong, and both are irrevocable.
This delivers a shock to the unprepared.

Ordinary life does not prepare individuals for the shocks the relentless merciless cruelty they percieve the markets deliver as information shocks when viewed though this set of values.

In order to succeed these values have to be replaced by other values, so ALIEN to most ordinary people that it is beyond their ability let alone their desire to be able to recognise the need to change.

This is the problem. You have to recognise the problem first before you can deal with it.

I will be expanding on this in due course.

Your reply, Very Good Indeed ~ Explore this further and you will make progress !
 
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QUOTE: "if it were not so serious, it would be funny."

SOCRATES, rarely have i heard an explanation of what the markets are in 10 words. EXEPTIONALLY well said! :)
 
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