The FTSE 2006

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 5th September 2006

Monday's results:
Close:5986, up 37pts [0.63%]
Range: 5986 - 5947.

Last 5 TD: up 1.83%.
OTM: 0.73%.

DOW Friday
11464, up 83pts [0.73%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.59%.
OTM: 0.73%

S&P 500 Friday
1311.01, up 7.19pts [0.55%].

News items of note:
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil fell more than a dollar to less than $68 a barrel on Monday, pulled lower by expectations that any sanctions against oil producer Iran were some way off and would not necessarily disrupt export flows.

U.S. light sweet crude was down $1.17 to $68.02 a barrel, just off a session low of $67.77.

London Brent crude settled at $67.71, $1.44 a barrel below Friday's close. Its session low was $67.59, the lowest level since June 21.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday’s favoured the dip; Tuesday's are unclear.

The PoM System: -0.25, interpretation: favours the weak possibility of a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
British Airways UK Traffic
Cairn Energy

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI services Aug
11:00 UK BRC Sales monitor Aug

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: While the US markets were closed the FTSE made hay, and tomorrow also looks a tad promising with Oil continuing with its slow southerly decline; charts and PoM have no clear direction; CR and ED are tame and the SP companies have the FTSE opening up at evens.

Early gut feeling: still neutral

Will I bet? Thursdays Long is still running @ 5897, have changed the stop gap to 7pts. Again no strong clues as to the markets direction for tomorrow, but as it stands, the market is considered as riding a high. Whether it can contain this pace and move beyond the 6000 mark will become clear sometime prior to this coming Thursdays BOE rate announcement.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

Hi UK,

Thanks. I've just started reading the thread and your daily diagnosis and I was wondering about The PoM System and how it's calculated?

Regards,

N.

Basically, known variants [or factors] are given a numerical value. You add up all the values to end up with a plus or minus figure. It is a manual system. Principally I look for a factor of 3 or more before I consider the system to be worth taking into my betting strategy.

Here's an example for tomorrow:

FTSE today: -2
FTSE 3 days: -2
Direction of market over 5 days [rising]: +1
DOW yesterday: +2.75
Oil [decline]: +1
CR [tame]: +0
ED: [tame]: +0
Day of the week: -1
Time of month: -.25

There are several other factors I add from time to time which may, or may not, play a significant part in effecting the market such as the mining and banking sectors, known news [the Middle East crisis] and 3 day CR and ED results to name a few [off the top of my head]. Although its a manual system each variant has its own sliding scale and therefore takes approx 3-6 minutes to add up the points. As I've said before in the forum, it's a tool. It supplements other data and provides me an additional consensus as to the markets daily direction. I never use it as a sole indicator.

Below is its current success rate:

0-2, 59%
2-3, 69%
3-4, 83%
4 or above, 92%

Good trading

Yours

UK

 

[Nechro]

Basically, known variants [or factors] are given a numerical value. You add up all the values to end up with a plus or minus figure. It is a manual system. Principally I look for a factor of 3 or more before I consider the system to be worth taking into my betting strategy.

Here's an example for tomorrow:

FTSE today: -2
FTSE 3 days: -2
Direction of market over 5 days [rising]: +1
DOW yesterday: +2.75
Oil [decline]: +1
CR [tame]: +0
ED: [tame]: +0
Day of the week: -1
Time of month: -.25

There are several other factors I add from time to time which may, or may not, play a significant part in effecting the market such as the mining and banking sectors, known news [the Middle East crisis] and 3 day CR and ED results to name a few [off the top of my head]. Although its a manual system each variant has its own sliding scale and therefore takes approx 3-6 minutes to add up the points. As I've said before in the forum, it's a tool. It supplements other data and provides me an additional consensus as to the markets daily direction. I never use it as a sole indicator.

Below is its current success rate:

0-2, 59%
2-3, 69%
3-4, 83%
4 or above, 92%

Good trading

Yours

UK

Hi UK,

Thanks for taking the time to explain the system; very interesting and great to see the success rate too. I'll look forward to keeping an eye on that.

It sounds as though this is your own econometric model or is this a mainstream indicator?

Regards,

N.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 6th September 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close:5981, down 5pts [0.08%]
Range: 5991 - 5956.

Last 5 TD: up 1.58%.
OTM: 1.28%.

DOW
11469, up 5pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.03%.
OTM: 0.77%

S&P 500 Monday
Bad data feed is preventing S&P update.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's were unclear; Wednesdays favour an early rise.

The PoM System: -1.5, interpretation: favours the weak possibility of a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
GALLAHER

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Industrial production July
13:30 US Non farm productivity [the one to watch]

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The FTSE did well to end 5pts down from a low of 30pts, and it was clear to see that it was more of investors swapping shares rather then selling and holding back. This is good news as it shows that the market continues to remain Bullish rather then Bear. Charts and PoM are mixed and fail to provide any strong indication as to direction; CR is tame but the US ED is the one to watch. SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 5pts.

Early gut feeling: still neutral

Will I bet? Thursdays Long @ 5897, was pulled by its stop gap; I'm in no rush to re-enter until after the BOE on Thursday. Will be watching the FTSE Binary between 1pm - 2pm for a potential bargain.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

Hi UK,

Thanks for taking the time to explain the system; very interesting and great to see the success rate too. I'll look forward to keeping an eye on that.

It sounds as though this is your own econometric model or is this a mainstream indicator?

Regards,

N.

I would say more of a mainstream indicator.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 7th September 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close:5929, down 52pts [0.88%]
Range: 5981 - 5926.

Last 5 TD: up 0.01%.
OTM: 0.40%.

DOW
11406, down 63pts [0.55%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.32%.
OTM: 0.22%

S&P 500 Monday
Bad data feed is preventing S&P update.

News items of note:
Stocks tumble on fears of Fed rate hike
NEW YORK - Wall Street turned sharply lower Wednesday after a series of economic reports left investors questioning whether the Federal Reserve might resume its string of interest rate hikes when it meets later this month.

A Labor Department report that wages rose at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the second quarter, above the 4.2 percent the agency estimated, was an unpleasant surprise for a market that had reached three-month highs on hopes of stable rates. For the first quarter, the department said labor costs jumped 9 percent.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays favoured an early rise; Thursdays foresee a drop.

The PoM System: +2.25, interpretation: favours the rise. Also recommends a 'No bet' due to the ED.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
12:00 UK Bank of England rate announcement Sep
13:30 US Jobless claims

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the US ED turned the markets today with a possible two more nails resting in the palm of the great Economic Dataman just waiting to be hammered home. If both are negative expect the FTSE to tumble a further 60pts, if positive a modest rise of 30-40pts. Charts anticipate a drop, but the PoM's making me nervous with a positive factor, although low it does show that the market has room to rise; no CR but UK and US ED's are the one's to watch. SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 6-9pts.

Early gut feeling: a drop.

Will I bet? No bargains gained on Wednesday for me, but all will come to he who waits. Will be watching the ED data before committing to a Long/short.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[DepthTangent]

I can only assume most of the boys awoke with a hangover this morning as its been quite negative so far. Remember, buy the dips!

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 8th September 2006

Thursday's results:
Close:5858, down 71pts [01.20%]
Range: 5929 - 5853.

Last 5 TD: down 0.80%.
OTM: -0.80%.

The FTSE is well under par for the 3 day Average. This alone is not enough to go Long unless other data adds support.

DOW
11331, down 74pts [0.66%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.45%.
OTM: -0.43%

S&P 500
1294.02, down 6.24pts [0.48%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.87%.
OTM: -0.75%

News items of note:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans submitting new claims for jobless aid dropped 9,000 last week, while stockpiles of wholesale durable goods rose for the 35th straight month, government data released on Thursday showed. - Even so, the US markets turned Bear, no doubt believing that the markets were too high in regards to current economic conditions.
The Bank (TBHS - news) of England held interest rates at 4.75 per cent on Thursday, choosing not to shock markets with a rise for the second month running.

Economists and investors in financial markets expected the Bank to sit tight this month and had been betting that there was almost no chance of a rate rise.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays saw a drop. Fridays see a mixed fall /rise

The PoM System: +4.25, interpretation: favours the rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: as anticipated the markets tumbled further South, the question now is 'are we at the bottom.' Charts are mixed with a view of an early dip coupled with a late rise, and the PoM predicts a strong possibility of a rise; no CR or ED which favours the rise; so far this year, Fridays have a 2 to 1 chance of a rise; SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 3-5pts.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? I was surprised the FTSE continued to shuffle South as far as it did and as such I consider it a good buy. I was unable to enter the market prior to close and I'm hoping that I can get in early for a Long at 8am, SG will be 22pts. I'm not overly confident so I'll be betting small.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

I can only assume most of the boys awoke with a hangover this morning as its been quite negative so far. Remember, buy the dips!

Are we at the bottom yet!

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 11th September 2006

Friday's results:
Close:5879, up 21pts [0.36%]
Range: 5899 - 5858.

Last 5 TD: down 1.17%.
OTM: -0.44%.

DOW
11392, up 60pts [0.54%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.10%.
OTM: 0.10%

S&P 500
1298.82, up 4.90pts [0.38%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.37%.
OTM: -0.37%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays favoured a fall followed by a rise; Mondays show no clear direction for the day.

The PoM System: +2.5, interpretation: favours a moderate rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Associated British Foods

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PPI
09:30 UK Trade in goods & services

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the market bounced a little from Thursdays heavy drop, but not as much as anticipated so there may be some residual come Monday. Charts are undecided, but the PoM still favours the rise; CR is tame and ED is moderate; SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 10pts.

Early gut feeling: early rise with a possible late fall.

Will I bet? Fridays Long didn't do as well as anticipated, but a positiive is a positive. I'm not overly confident one way or another for Monday, so best wait and watch.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 12th September 2006

Monday's results:
Close:5850, down 28pts [0.48%]
Range: 5899 - 5858.

Last 5 TD: down 2.28%.
OTM: -0.92%.

DOW
11396, up 4pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.58%.
OTM: 0.15%

S&P 500
1299.54, up 0.62pts [0.05%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.87%.
OTM: -0.32%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays showed no clear direction for the day. Tuesdays favour the rise.

The PoM System: +2.75, interpretation: favours a moderate rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Drax.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK CPI (RPI)

Areas to watch: Most of the mining related companies took a heavy tumble today and as such I anticipate either a minor decline / minor rise tomorrow; Banking sector is top heavy and due for a retraction; with oil dropping to $64 a barrel I'm wondering when the market will wake up! Hurricane season is at hand so watch weather news with increased interest over the coming weeks.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE fell in line with the days early fall in the US markets only to struggle to catch up later in the day when the US markets reversed. Its easy to see that the FTSE is presently overly sensitive to US market movement and will continue to be so until the S&P either climbs the 1300 fence and gallops on or retracts to the 1250 point. Charts favour the rise and likewise the PoM; CR and ED are tame; SB companies have the FTSE pegged opening up by 12pts.

Early gut feeling: same as yesterday, early rise with a possible late fall.

Will I bet? Well I watched the market all day long and nothing seemed to leap out and say 'GO! GO! GO! Am I a chicken? Or just boringly cautious? By my reckoning the market is below where it should be by 43pts. Tomorrow I fancy a Long. Anybody agree?

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[Nechro]

Hi UK,

My feeling today was that we would most likely see a fall because of the sentiment surrounding the anniversary of 9/11. I was looking to support at 5865 and 5852 and once the latter was breached it turned to pretty strong resistance for most of the remainder of the day.

Tomorrow - I think a rise is more likely too, all things considered, but always ready to change my mind. I've found that thinking of where the Index is relative to where it ought to be has tripped me up in the past, but I do reckon it's probably been undervalued since about the middle of May.

"Am I a chicken?" - I don't keep positions open overnight, so you're braver than me!!

Regards,

N.

 

[datav]

is anyone aware of any "virtual trading room" for th EU markets? I know there are dozens for the US markets, but I never found one for the FTSE or Dax

 

[ukhero]

Hi UK,

My feeling today was that we would most likely see a fall because of the sentiment surrounding the anniversary of 9/11. I was looking to support at 5865 and 5852 and once the latter was breached it turned to pretty strong resistance for most of the remainder of the day.

Tomorrow - I think a rise is more likely too, all things considered, but always ready to change my mind. I've found that thinking of where the Index is relative to where it ought to be has tripped me up in the past, but I do reckon it's probably been undervalued since about the middle of May.

"Am I a chicken?" - I don't keep positions open overnight, so you're braver than me!!

Regards,

N.

If anything the markets will rise in regards to the 9/11. If you look at historical data, any fall due to terrorist activity is followed by a rise. I don't know whether this is just profit taking / bargain hunting or an unmentioned attitude to a 'we'll not be beaten, belittled or allow the market to be influenced to a long term degree by radical Fundamentalists' concept. I could be wrong, but data is data.


UK

 

[ukhero]

is anyone aware of any "virtual trading room" for th EU markets? I know there are dozens for the US markets, but I never found one for the FTSE or Dax

Without sounding coy, and in one word: nope!

Let me know if you do.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 13th September 2006

Tuesdays results:
Close:5895, up 44pts [0.76%]
Range: 5896 - 5824.

Last 5 TD: down 1.44%.
OTM: -0.16%.

DOW
11498, up 101pts [0.89%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.26%.
OTM: 1.03%

S&P 500
1299.54, up 0.62pts [0.05%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.87%.
OTM: -0.32%

Of the Indices above the S&P is the stronger of the three, so much so that it has hit four of my seven indicators that say its too high.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts:Tuesdays favoured the rise. I'm unable to decipher Wednesdays, some indicators say up others down; could be early rise late fall.

The PoM System: +0.50, interpretation: favours the weak rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
BAE SYSTEMS
NEXT

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Unemployment Aug
09:30 UK Average earnings July

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The FTSE is still looking weak compared to the US markets and therefore, in my eyes, continues to be a 'buy;' charts are unclear and likewise the PoM; CR should see an element of profit taking and the ED is moderate, however the ED should still be watched closely as it could rattle the market; the S&P has hit the 1300 point and marched on [as highlighted yesterday], but will it retract? And as such drag the FTSE down. SB companies have the FTSE tipping the 5900 mark by opening up some 17pts.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? Well, my prediction of the FTSE being under par by 43pts was pretty much on the ball; I watched the markets open, and to be honest, I was a touch rattled well it fell 20pts plus. Even so, I went with my data: a Binary @ up 40-50pts and a small SB Long has now topped up my larder with 'Tesco's Whisky' for the next few months. Tomorrow I'm not sure, could go either way by 15pts. Happy to watch and choose my moment. Favour the Binary up @ 10-20.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[Nechro]

If anything the markets will rise in regards to the 9/11. If you look at historical data, any fall due to terrorist activity is followed by a rise. I don't know whether this is just profit taking / bargain hunting or an unmentioned attitude to a 'we'll not be beaten, belittled or allow the market to be influenced to a long term degree by radical Fundamentalists' concept. I could be wrong, but data is data.


UK

Hi UK,

I'm not sure what you mean exactly: are you saying that a sharp intra-day decline, in response to a terrorist act, is likely to be followed by a rise (on the same or the following day) and/or that the markets have tended to rise on the anniversaries of terrorist acts?

I think the FTSE rose on the first anniversary of 9/11, fell on the second anniversary and the anniversaries have fallen on the weekend for the last two years; but my feeling was just a feeling, rather than being anything data derived.

Regards,

N.

PS Tesco's whisky - that's gotta hurt!!

 

[ukhero]

Hi UK,

I'm not sure what you mean exactly: are you saying that a sharp intra-day decline, in response to a terrorist act, is likely to be followed by a rise (on the same or the following day) and/or that the markets have tended to rise on the anniversaries of terrorist acts?

I think the FTSE rose on the first anniversary of 9/11, fell on the second anniversary and the anniversaries have fallen on the weekend for the last two years; but my feeling was just a feeling, rather than being anything data derived.

Regards,

N.

PS Tesco's whisky - that's gotta hurt!!

I think it's a question that any anniversary of any particular terrorist activity does not lend support to markets falling in sympathy, it just wouldn't wash with the investors.

As to tesco's Whisky, I've another 19 bottles to get through. Owww my head!

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 14th September 2006

Wednesdays results:
Close:5892, down 3pts [0.06%]
Range: 5913 - 5892.

Last 5 TD: down 0.62%.
OTM: -0.22%.

DOW
11543, up 45pts [0.39%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.20%.
OTM: 1.43%

S&P 500
1318.07, up 4.96pts [0.38%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.37%.
OTM: 1.10%

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays was unclear. Thursdays show an indication towards a charge and most likely in favour of the rise; although this may kick in on Friday.

The PoM System: +1.75, interpretation: favours the rise. However, the PoM slips into negative territory when the US markets open with a -1.25 figure.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
KINGFISHER
OLD MUTUAL

Economic Data:
00:30 UK RICS house prices Aug
09:30 UK Retail sales Aug
13:30 US Jobless claims
13:30 US Retail Sales Aug
15:00 US Business Inventories

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The FTSE appears to be holding back, but I guess its a question of how confident UK investors are in the UK economy at the moment. Charts see a reversal and favour the rise; the PoM sees a rise and then a fall later in the day; CR is tame but the ED is the one to watch; SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 7-9pts

Early gut feeling: an interesting day ahead.

Will I bet? Too many unknown variables for tomorrow. Will be looking at hourly Binary for bargains during the ED hours.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[datav]

<<The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: The FTSE appears to be holding back, but I guess its a question of how confident UK investors are in the UK economy at the moment. Charts see a reversal and favour the rise; the PoM sees a rise and then a fall later in the day; CR is tame but the ED is the one to watch; SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 7-9pts>>

You hit the nail on the head with that UK. Great stuff Hopefully you can now start your own whisky distillery and put Tesco out of the trade!