The FTSE 2006

The FTSE, Thursday 29th June 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 5678, up 26pts [0.47%]
Range: 5702 - 5633.

Last 5 TD: up 0.33%.
OTM: -0.62%.

DOW:
10973, up 48pts [0.45%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.95%.
OTM: -1.69%

S&P 500
1246.00, up 6.80pts [0.55%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.49%.
OTM: -1.83%.

News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose on Wednesday, helped by gains in energy shares, but the advance was limited as investors were reluctant to place major bets while waiting for the Federal Reserve's statement on interest rates on Thursday.

Well worth a read: Mining chiefs cast doubt on strength of copper price
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-2246769,00.html#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=Business

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays was unclear and likewise Thursdays.

The PoM System has two figures for tomorrow: +0.25 [miners remain steady] and -1.75 [miners drop further]. However, the system recommends a 'no bet'

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Consumer Credit (GBPbn) May
09:30 UK Mortgages (000's) May
13:30 US GDP Q1
13:30 US Jobless claims
19:15 US FOMC decision

Note: FOMC day two/result. The markets will be looking for any indication towards further rises.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: as anticipated the US markets shuffled higher after yesterdays dramatic and overly heavy drop; expect the FTSE to open 12-18pts up; charts are unclear and the PoM recommends a 'No Bet;' no CR, but as we all know the ED is the one to watch; copper prises are in the lamp light and are expected to drop over the coming weeks - if correct this should put a heavy strain on the mining sector and therefore the FTSE as a whole.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? I've no idea what's going to happen to the market tomorrow. Result of the FOMC is due out at 1815hrs UK time, so don't leave any unnecessary positions open over night. In all, I may go a '10pt range' Binary as I'm expecting a flat day tomorrow, but when I say this I'm usually wrong!

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
The FTSE, Friday 30th June 2006

Thursday's results:
Close: 5791, up 112pts [1.99%]
Range: 5791 - 5678.

Last 5 TD: up 1.98%.
OTM: 1.37%.

DOW:
11190, up 216pts [0.45%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.575%.
OTM: 0.29%

S&P 500
1272.87, up 26.87pts [2.16%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.20%.
OTM: 0.32%.

News items of note:
Telegraph - 'British supermarket chain Asda and the GMB union have reached a settlement that avoids a planned five-day strike in a dispute over union recognition.'

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks soared on Thursday, sending the Nasdaq up nearly 3 percent as investors interpreted the Federal Reserve's policy statement as a signal the central bank may pause after its latest interest-rate increase.

In a decision widely expected on Wall Street, the central bank's policy-setting arm voted unanimously to lift the benchmark federal funds rate a quarter-percentage point to 5.25 percent. But the Federal Open Market Committee also said moderating economic growth could limit inflation going forward.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays was unclear. Fridays are distorted due to the FOMC result but do indicate a further rise

The PoM System: +2.50, interpretation: a rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Xstrata [EGM]

Economic Data:
09:30 UK GDP
09:30 UK Current Account
10:30 UK GfK consumer confidence

Areas to watch: Miners and copper prices, and the retail sector; Oil is expected to dip.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all the markets reacted positively today, not so much as to the anticipated quarter point rise but more towards the possibility of an interest rate pause at the next meeting; expect the FTSE to open up by 40-50pts; charts and PoM support an additional rise; CR should be positive and ED is moderate.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? Like I said late Thursday night, "I'm expecting a flat day Friday, but when I say this I'm usually wrong!" Such is fate. A decent entry point will be difficult tomorrow so I'll be considering a 'up on the day' Binary.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
ukhero said:
The FTSE, Friday 30th June 2006

Thursday's results:
Close: 5791, up 112pts [1.99%]
Range: 5791 - 5678.

Last 5 TD: up 1.98%.
OTM: 1.37%.

DOW:
11190, up 216pts [0.45%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.575%.
OTM: 0.29%

S&P 500
1272.87, up 26.87pts [2.16%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.20%.
OTM: 0.32%.

News items of note:
Telegraph - 'British supermarket chain Asda and the GMB union have reached a settlement that avoids a planned five-day strike in a dispute over union recognition.'

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks soared on Thursday, sending the Nasdaq up nearly 3 percent as investors interpreted the Federal Reserve's policy statement as a signal the central bank may pause after its latest interest-rate increase.

In a decision widely expected on Wall Street, the central bank's policy-setting arm voted unanimously to lift the benchmark federal funds rate a quarter-percentage point to 5.25 percent. But the Federal Open Market Committee also said moderating economic growth could limit inflation going forward.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays was unclear. Fridays are distorted due to the FOMC result but do indicate a further rise

The PoM System: +2.50, interpretation: a rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Xstrata [EGM]

Economic Data:
09:30 UK GDP
09:30 UK Current Account
10:30 UK GfK consumer confidence

Areas to watch: Miners and copper prices, and the retail sector; Oil is expected to dip.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all the markets reacted positively today, not so much as to the anticipated quarter point rise but more towards the possibility of an interest rate pause at the next meeting; expect the FTSE to open up by 40-50pts; charts and PoM support an additional rise; CR should be positive and ED is moderate.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? Like I said late Thursday night, "I'm expecting a flat day Friday, but when I say this I'm usually wrong!" Such is fate. A decent entry point will be difficult tomorrow so I'll be considering a 'up on the day' Binary.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
uk hero
thought this link may be of interest to you.http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=5456944&from=6147
 
The FTSE, Monday 3rd July 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 5833, up 41pts [0.72%]
Range: 5865 - 5791.

Last 5 TD: up 2.56%.
OTM: 2.09%.

DOW:
11150, down 40pts [0.36%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.48%.
OTM: -0.07%

S&P 500
1270.2, down 2.67pts [0.21%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.07%.
OTM: 0.11%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays were distorted due to the FOMC result but did indicate a further rise. Mondays a dip.

The PoM System: -1.5, interpretation: a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI Manufacturing.

Areas to watch: Oil sector.

Note: US markets close early at 1pm [5pm UK time] for the July 1st holiday.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data:
the FTSE rose for a third day in a row on Friday for a total of 176pts, this makes the market top heavey in the short period and moderate for the 20 -30 day period; charts and PoM agree with a dip; no CR and ED is tame; first of the month favours the rise.

Early gut feeling: against all the data I still favour the rise.

Will I bet? Intend to scalp Monday.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
The FTSE, Tuesday 4th July 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 5884, up 51pts [0.87%]
Range: 5884 - 5833.

Last 5 TD: up 3.62%.
OTM: 2.09%.

DOW:
11228, up 78pts [0.70%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.67%.
OTM: 0.70%

S&P 500
1280.19, up 9.99pts [0.79%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.37%.
OTM: 0.79%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts:
Monday stated a dip. Tuesday's an early morning rise.

The PoM System: -4.5, interpretation: a drop.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
None.

Areas to watch: Oil sector.

Note: US markets are closed tomorrow, 4th July. BOE on the 7th.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the markets continue to push forward to claw back recent weeks losses, but data suggests a touch too fast; charts predict an early morning rise whereas the PoM favours a drop on the day; no CR or ED which favours the rise; second day of the month favours the drop; oil sector appears over buoyant and is overdue a retraction.

Early gut feeling: Neutral.

Will I bet? looking to enter a Short position.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
The FTSE, Wednesday 5th July 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 5883, down 0.9pts [0.02%]
Range: 5884 - 5848.

Last 5 TD: up 4.04%. Top heavy for this time period.
OTM: 0.86%.

DOW Monday:
11228, up 78pts [0.70%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.67%.
OTM: 0.70%

S&P 500 Monday:
1280.19, up 9.99pts [0.79%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.37%.
OTM: 0.79%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's stated an early morning rise. Wednesdays are unclear but favour the rise above a dip.

The PoM System: -2.75, interpretation: a drop. Also recommends a 'No Bet.'

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
BP BP.L UK Trading
British Airways

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI Services June

Note: BOE on the 7th.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE's dip today was anticipated, but its late end of day claw back was not; charts are unclear and the PoM favours another dip but recommends a 'No Bet;' news in general is somewhat laconic so the market will be driven, in general early morning, by market sentiment; CR should be positive and ED is tame; historically the third day of the month favours a dip.

Early gut feeling: Neutral.

Will I bet? Went a 'Down on the day' Binary today - and heavy. I need a drink... Tomorrow I'm unsure, so I'll be waiting in the wings.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
The FTSE, Thursday 6th July 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 5826, down 56pts [0.97%]
Range: 5883 - 5815.

Last 5 TD: up 2.61%. Still top heavy for this time period.
OTM: -0.11%.

DOW
11151, down 76pts [0.68%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.08%.
OTM: 0.02%

S&P 500 Monday:
1270.91, down 9.28pts [0.72%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.56%.
OTM: 0.06%.

News items of note:
Worth a read, 'Oil hits record:'
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060705/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc_18

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays were unclear but favoured the rise above the dip. Thursday's a rise.

The PoM System: +2.00, interpretation: a rise. Also recommends a 'No Bet.'

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Industrial Production
12:00 UK Bank of England rate

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the dramatic surge in Oil price today did little to lift the Oil sector related companies and one wonders if this rise is about to suddenly drop back to the $72 mark tomorrow; charts and the PoM result agree with the rise; ED is the one to watch; the FTSE has drifted to 5845, up 19pts from last close.

Early gut feeling: a debatable rise.

Will I bet?
I'll be looking at a 'On the hour' Binary for the 12-1pm slot.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
The FTSE, Friday 7th July 2006

Thursday's results:
Close: 5890, up 63pts [1.09%]
Range: 5897 - 5826.

Last 5 TD: up 1.70%.
OTM: 0.98%.

DOW
11225, up 73pts [0.66%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.30%.
OTM: 0.68%

S&P 500
1274.07, up 3.16pts [0.25%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.26%.
OTM: 0.31%.

News items of note:
Telegraph - 'House prices have taken an unexpected tumble, suffering their biggest one-month fall in almost four years, according to new figures.

Property prices dropped by 1.2pc in June, according to Halifax, the UK's biggest mortgage lender. The data will relieve pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, which it kept on hold at 4.5pc today for the eleventh month in a row.' - I'm very surprised that the market did not react to this news. Perhaps tomorrow!

FT.com - 'European stock markets ticked higher on Thursday after the European Central Bank, which earlier left eurozone interest rates on hold, said it must remain vigilant on inflation.

The Bank of England held at 4.5 per cent, while the ECB left its unchanged at 2.75 per cent.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts:
Thursday's stated a rise. Fridays have no clear direction.

The PoM System: -0.50, interpretation: a weak possibility of a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Tesco AGM

Economic Data:
None UK.
13:30 US Non-farm payrolls [the one to watch].

Areas to watch: Mining sector.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all the markets reacted positive to the IR being placed on hold, so is that it! Will the markets push forward or continue to shuffle around their present positions? I believe the latter; charts are unclear and the PoM favours a weak dip; CR should be interesting, and I have a strange feeling in my guts that it won't be all Pop, Jam Tarts and Crinkle Crisps for Tesco, no ED for the UK but the US is the one to watch closely as it may switch the markets direction; the mining sector has been holding back of late, add to this today's heavy rise in copper prices and we may see the miners propping up, or at least, cancelling out any other market negativity tomorrow.

Early gut feeling: neutral/a dip.

Will I bet? I could be wrong, but I see the market having a yo-yo day tomorrow, and if correct, keep your stop gaps tight. Will be looking to scalp the day.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
The FTSE, Monday 10th July 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 5888, down 1pt [0.02%]
Range: 5908 - 5856.

Last 5 TD: up 0.96%.
OTM: 0.96%.

DOW
11090, down 134pts [1.20%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.88%.
OTM: -0.52%

S&P 500
1265.48, down 8.59pts [0.67%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.57%.
OTM: -0.36%.

News items of note:
Worth a read: 'Oil hits record high'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/07/07/uoil07.xml

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays had no clear direction. Mondays a dip.

The PoM System: -2.00, interpretation: a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PPI Output
09:30 UK ODPM House prices

Areas to watch: Mining and Oil sectors.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data:
The US markets are still shuffling south, albeit slowly, with a day by day up down motion, and I still believe we are in a weak down / neutral market; expect the FTSE to open down 20pts; charts and PoM both favour the dip; no CR and ED is moderate, house price ED is already expected to be poor; Oil is the one to watch. A moderate drop in the price of crude tomorrow will send the Oil sector spinning south which in turn will drag the FTSE down early morning. From what I can surmise, market sentiment appears hesitant.

Early gut feeling: early drop. Also a possible late rise if the US profit takers jump on board after Fridays strong southern drop.

Will I bet? Monday has all the hallmarks of being one of those days when you end up chasing the market rather then predicting its direction. Past experience tells me to sit this one out.

For the week: down.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Gosh its been quiet on this board! Been up in Whistler for 2 weeks so just getting back into it. Left some longs open and managed to close them after that stellar Friday a week or so ago. Just opened a NDX long @ 1540, FTSE doesn't seem good risk/reward on either long or short side yet.
 
downbytheriver7 said:
Gosh its been quiet on this board! Been up in Whistler for 2 weeks so just getting back into it. Left some longs open and managed to close them after that stellar Friday a week or so ago. Just opened a NDX long @ 1540, FTSE doesn't seem good risk/reward on either long or short side yet.


Agree, it’s so quiet you can almost hear a mouse fart. Plenty read but few comment. It matters not.

I’m not expecting much from the FTSE this week, and yes there may be more action elsewhere, but I’m a FTSE marketer at heart and a suborn one at that!

Good trading.


UK
 
ukhero said:
Agree, it’s so quiet you can almost hear a mouse fart. Plenty read but few comment. It matters not.

I’m not expecting much from the FTSE this week, and yes there may be more action elsewhere, but I’m a FTSE marketer at heart and a suborn one at that!

Good trading.


UK

UK Hero you do sterling work here and as a newby to trading the index I count this thread as a must on my "research". Personally I favour a bit of a fall back for the moment due to the holidays and a bit of profit taking after the rapid advance of the index over the last two weeks.

Once that is over and things have settled a bit I think new highs for the year will be tested....we'll see.

Keep up the good work.
 
The FTSE, Tuesday 11th July 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 5896, up 8pts [0.14%]
Range: 5901 - 5856.

This is the second time in two days that the markets tipped the 5900 mark without any great impetus, so expect the 5900 to be a major position in any future rises.

Last 5 TD: up 0.96%.
OTM: 1.10%.

DOW
11103, up 12pts [0.12%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.41%.
OTM: -0.41%

S&P 500
1267.34, up 1.86pts [0.15%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.22%.
OTM: -0.22%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays stated a dip. Tuesdays favour the rise.

The PoM System: -0.25, interpretation: a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
BAA
Man Group
Marks & Spencer

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Trade in goods & services May
11:00 UK BRC sales monitor

Areas to watch: Mining sector.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: there was no major movement in any of the markets today and I anticipate the same format tomorrow; as I write, SB companies have the FTSE down 11pts prior to open; charts predict a rise whereas the PoM favours the down; profit takers may step in tomorrow and Wednesday; MG and M&S are the ones to watch for early market direction, ED is moderate but results are not expected to rock the market; the miners may be the main movers of the day, if not, expect a repeat of Monday.

Early gut feeling:
Neutral

Will I bet? Nope! Unless the market shows a clean pair of heels in one direction or another I'm happy to remain on the fence. Although, I may go a small Binary '0-10pts down on the day.'

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
SAHD72 said:
UK Hero you do sterling work here and as a newby to trading the index I count this thread as a must on my "research". Personally I favour a bit of a fall back for the moment due to the holidays and a bit of profit taking after the rapid advance of the index over the last two weeks.

Once that is over and things have settled a bit I think new highs for the year will be tested....we'll see.

Keep up the good work.

Agree.

Sticking my neck out, which I do a lot, I don't see the FTSE going above and beyond 6000 by year end. In fact, I see it yo-yoing between 5510 and 5990 for the rest of the year. If right, it's going to be awfully difficult to make any decent profit. Lets hope I'm wrong.

Wish you well in your trading SAHD72


UK
 
Plenty read but few comment. It matters not.

Take it as a compliment ukhero, it's my observation that people mostly post when they want to bitch about something.

This is the only thread that I consider crucial reading on my brief daily visits.
 
Umm FTSE holding up relatively well today against the other indices, is it a matter of time before it trades down or a good sign. Don't think there is much upside on it above 5900 and I am tempted to short against a long on the NDX. Tough markets at the moment.
 
The FTSE, Wednesday 12th July 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 5857, down 39pts [0.67%]
Range: 5896 - 5844.

Last 5 TD: down 0.43%. First negative for this time period since 27th June, and shows the recent sharp upward trend has at last slowed to a modest climb. The 39pt drop today was well overdone by 15-20pts. The US markets late reversal today clearly shows a positive reaction that they are under valued. The 5845 [FTSE], 11130 DOW and 1260 S&P are now all key positions.

OTM: 0.43%.

DOW
11134, up 31pts [0.28%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.82%.
OTM: -0.12%

S&P 500
1272.52, up 5.18pts [0.41%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.59%.
OTM: 0.19%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays favoured the rise and Wednesdays also.

The PoM System: +4.75, interpretation: a rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
3i
BT
J Sainsbury
JP Morgan

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Unemployment May/June [expected to be positive]
09:30 UK Average earnings
13;30 US Trade balance

Areas to watch: Miners. They're exceptionaly hesitant as to which direction they should go. However, I favour the rise overall.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE's drop today was over baked and as we've seen the US markets reversed late in the day, so expect a positive early morning opening; SB companies have already pegged the FTSE up by 30pts; charts favour the rise and the PoM predicts a bold rise; CR should be mixed, ED is the one to watch throughout the day as it will be the deciding factor for all three Indices.

Early gut feeling: early rise.

Will I bet? I fancy the rise, but I think I've missed the boat. It will be difficult if not impossible to obtain a decent entry level unless the 09:30 ED results rattle the market only to reverse later in the day with a positive US ED result. In all, it should be an interesting day.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Vorbis said:
Take it as a compliment ukhero, it's my observation that people mostly post when they want to bitch about something.

This is the only thread that I consider crucial reading on my brief daily visits.

Vorbis, thanks for your comments.

Let them bitch away.

From time to time there's been, and still is, some very astute commentators in regards to the FTSE's direction, and I'd like to think that most have strayed into other markets/FX/commodities to best capitalise their profits. So they should, as I'm sure they'll return with vigour when the Market either kicks of its slippers and puts on its trainers or stumbles down the stairs hitting every step with a thump.

And it's easy to see that the column has plenty of daily readers [between 200 - 400 per day]. This pleases me, spurs me on to write more with added gusto. My only concern is that my daily commentary does justice to the forum, as readers are aware, I'm a gluten for sticking my neck out by stating the markets direction, but from the e-mails I receive, this appears not only entertaining but exactly what they want.

Wish you well in your trading.

UK
 
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