The FTSE 2006

[downbytheriver7]

good reading

always some interesting reading to be found here;

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/market/stockindices.asp

I am still daring to buy the dip here and have a small additional FTSE long that I am looking to increase.

 

[High Risk]

At 9.11am UK it's 3504 STOX and FTSE 5625, looks a great BUY on daily chart...and Asia held up well today....

I'm just back, checked the markets, and lower after bouncing initially at that level. Stox, which I'm studying these days, went up to 3522 before dropping through 3500 (a clear danger/opportunity level)..and is now 3495. if I was trading Stoxx today, I'd have taken profit near 3520, then looked for a bounce from under 3495 and rode any momentum up.

I'm long another market already, so obviously feel there will be upside-but could easily be wrong. If I was using my model on these Euro markets I'd play both sides easily, but haven't worked out a good data feed yet-so right now any trades/calls areentirely discretionary .

 

[downbytheriver7]

I think today will be pivotal, a low open followed by a good close or semi-positive close will really turn up a few charts and make this look like some retracement of the big rally on thursday before potentially more upside. A bad day today will make Thursday's rally look like another one-off.

For me I am looking at these to hold FTSE 5600, NDX 1554 , SPX 1241 and DOW 10950 on a closing basis.

 

[downbytheriver7]

I think today will be pivotal, a low open followed by a good close or semi-positive close will really turn up a few charts and make this look like some retracement of the big rally on thursday before potentially more upside. A bad day today will make Thursday's rally look like another one-off.

For me I am looking at these to hold FTSE 5600, NDX 1554 , SPX 1241 and DOW 10950 on a closing basis.

Sold 2/3 my long positions into this rally - will either close out or add more depending on how midday (US) pans out...another sell off or a step higher?

 

[downbytheriver7]

Closed out the longs...tommorrow is another day. Think we close (US and UK) at decent levels but slightly of the highs, this action is postive for the short term if it holds and will support more of a rally to the upside.

 

[High Risk]

Closed out the longs...tommorrow is another day. Think we close (US and UK) at decent levels but slightly of the highs, this action is postive for the short term if it holds and will support more of a rally to the upside.

Congrats. Hope you made heaps.

I'll take profit tomorrow 20 minutes after the open in Asia, then day trade/scalp for another few ticks. May buy at close tomorrow for another jump, since I do suspect this rally is the real deal...but will watch for further evidence.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Congrats. Hope you made heaps.

I'll take profit tomorrow 20 minutes after the open in Asia, then day trade/scalp for another few ticks. May buy at close tomorrow for another jump, since I do suspect this rally is the real deal...but will watch for further evidence.

Yeap, agree, I am looking for a pullback to re-enter longs, will see what happens by time I get home, might leave some cheeky 'orders to open' open incase we get a pullback when I am on the tube!

Cheers.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 22nd June 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 5665, up 6pts [0.12%]
Range: 5658 - 5585.

Last 5 TD: up 2.86%.
OTM: -0.95%.

DOW:
11079, up 104pts [0.95%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.50%. [looking a tad heavy over this period]
OTM: -1.69%

S&P 500
1252.19, up 12.07pts [0.97%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.82%.
OTM: -1.35%.

News items of note:
Worth a read: Timesonline:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,16849-2232003,00.html#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=Business

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays had no clear direction. Thursdays show the market rising steadily after 13:30hrs, which has yet to show any signs of reversing. A rise.

The PoM System: +1.25, interpretation: a weak rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
9:30 CBI Industrial Trends

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: after 13:30pm the FTSE kicked into overdrive and clawed back all its early morning loses to end the day on a weak but positive 6pts. Sadly it missed the best part of the US markets rally; expect the FTSE to open up by 8-12pts; charts are slightly distorted but favour the rise which is supported by the PoM result; no CR and ED is tame.

Early gut feeling: early rise.

Will I bet? My computer system is still down so I won't be able to follow the markets tomorrow. So once again, but this time, it's a reluctant fence.

Out of interest: if my system had been up and running today, and having now studied today's data, I would have gone a small short around 10-11am. Someone up in the heavens must be smiling on me!

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Trickey day today. Not sure either way here. Maybe a flat to slightly up/down day would be healthy, still looking to buy dips and only sell a big rally. FTSE 5750-5800 resistance.

 

[SAHD72]

Trickey day today. Not sure either way here. Maybe a flat to slightly up/down day would be healthy, still looking to buy dips and only sell a big rally. FTSE 5750-5800 resistance.

Just wondered DBTR if you are keeping these longs overnight or taking them strictly on a day basis?

Must say Im tempted by a small long at 5710 but am wary of a pull back tomorrow due to a bit of possible profit taking before the weekend.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Just wondered DBTR if you are keeping these longs overnight or taking them strictly on a day basis?

Must say Im tempted by a small long at 5710 but am wary of a pull back tomorrow due to a bit of possible profit taking before the weekend.

Normally hold either intraday and close out before I head home or for max a few days if playing more a swing trade between levels. Recent price action of the last month has forced me to hold slightly longer - a few days on average and scale in and out the positions as the volatility has been way up.

I am looking at either long FTSE 5703, stop 5690 target 5733+ (new *recent* high)
or short FTSE 5700-5715, stop 5730, target 5650+ (some *recent support*)

Not sure either way yet today, and also favouring long the SPX today around 1250 with a tight stop. Might go long one index and short the other. Sidelines for now until US markets open!

 

[downbytheriver7]

Normally hold either intraday and close out before I head home or for max a few days if playing more a swing trade between levels. Recent price action of the last month has forced me to hold slightly longer - a few days on average and scale in and out the positions as the volatility has been way up.

I am looking at either long FTSE 5703, stop 5690 target 5733+ (new *recent* high)
or short FTSE 5700-5715, stop 5730, target 5650+ (some *recent support*)

Not sure either way yet today, and also favouring long the SPX today around 1250 with a tight stop. Might go long one index and short the other. Sidelines for now until US markets open!

After further thought today I am inclined to buy the dips on the NDX and SPX and sell the rallies on the FTSE and DOW.

 

[SAHD72]

After further thought today I am inclined to buy the dips on the NDX and SPX and sell the rallies on the FTSE and DOW.[/QUOTE

Thanks DBTR.... I didnt make the long in the end as it didnt feel right glad I didnt now as most of the days gains have been given back.

 

[downbytheriver7]

After further thought today I am inclined to buy the dips on the NDX and SPX and sell the rallies on the FTSE and DOW.[/QUOTE

Thanks DBTR.... I didnt make the long in the end as it didnt feel right glad I didnt now as most of the days gains have been given back.

Nibbling a long on the NDX and SPX here, looking for support on this pullback at 1550 and 1245 respectively, FTSE sidelined still.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 23rd June 2006

Thursday's results:
Close: 5684, up 19pts [0.34%]
Range: 5736 - 5657.

Last 5 TD: up 1.15%.
OTM: -0.61%.

DOW:
11019, down 60pts [0.54%].

Last 5 TD: 0.04%.
OTM: -1.28%

S&P 500
1245.60, down 6.59pts [0.53%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.83%.
OTM: -1.87%.

News items of note:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady after capping a long rate increasing cycle with a final quarter percentage point increase next week, a panel of top bank economists said on Thursday.
The American Bankers Association's Economic Advisory Committee said a slower pace of U.S. economic growth should allow the U.S. central bank time to assess the impact of earlier rate increases, although an acceleration in core inflation raised the risk the Fed could decide to continue to push borrowing costs up.

"Anchoring inflationary expectations has been a top priority," said U.S. Trust Company Chief Economist Robert McGee, chairman of the ABA panel. "Further rate increases, however, raise the risk of a bumpier landing in 2007 as the economy may slow more dramatically."

The forecasting panel said the U.S. economy was likely to grow at a 3 percent annual rate "at best" for the remainder of 2006.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays stated a rise. Fridays state a rise.

The PoM System: -1.00, interpretation: a weak fall.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the US markets decline from yesterdays high did little to deter the FTSE today, although the FTSE dropped from its early high it still managed to end the day on a decent rise; charts predict a rise which conflicts with the PoM result; no CR or Ed which historically favours a rise; expect the FTSE to open up at evens in the morning;

Early gut feeling: a small rise.

Will I bet? Computer system is now back up, so I'll be betting like a demon. Looking for a decent entry point for a Long.


If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Holding my NDX and SPX longs after 1550 and 1245 looks to have held as support. Still wating for FTSE long entry point although I may go a small long about now 5690. A close on a small rise across the board would make the charts look alot better. There are a few drags on the FTSE so I see any weakness as not attributed to the same mentality of the last few weeks.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Holding my NDX and SPX longs after 1550 and 1245 looks to have held as support. Still wating for FTSE long entry point although I may go a small long about now 5690. A close on a small rise across the board would make the charts look alot better. There are a few drags on the FTSE so I see any weakness as not attributed to the same mentality of the last few weeks.

Might be stopped out of these early action is looking poor but not gone long the FTSE yet. NDX stop 1544 and SPX 1239. FTSE buy at 5650-60.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 26th June 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 5692, up 8pts [0.14%]
Range: 5716 - 5667.

Last 5 TD: up 1.68%.
OTM: -0.47%.

DOW:
10989, down 30pts [0.27%].

Last 5 TD: -0.22%.
OTM: -1.56%

S&P 500
1244.5, down 1.10pts [0.09%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.55%.
OTM: -1.96%.

News items of note:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is expected to lift interest rates again this week to 5.25 percent in its seventeenth straight quarter percentage point hike and signal that further increases may be needed to keep inflation at bay.

The U.S. central bank meets over two days and is scheduled to announce the decision around 2:15 p.m. (1815 GMT) on Thursday.

Interest rate futures even indicate a small chance of a 50 basis point move, and some analysts point out the Fed has ended several previous rate hike cycles with increases of that scale. But the odds look slim this time around.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays stated a rise. Monday a rise.

The PoM System: -1.75, interpretation: a weak drop.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Persimmon.

Economic Data:
None.

Note: FOMC June 28th

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: although the US markets ended the day down on Friday expect the FTSE to open up with little change; Oil was on the march again due to Oil workers striking in Norway, but there may be a minor reverse tomorrow; charts predict a rise whereas the PoM predicts a minor dip; no major CR or ED which favours the rise.

Early gut feeling: another small rise.

Will I bet? I've no idea what the markets will do this week so I intend to scalp as and when.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 27th June 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 5681, down 10pts [0.19%]
Range: 5716 - 5677.

Last 5 TD: up 0.41%.
OTM: -0.66%.

DOW:
11045, up 56pts [0.51%].

Last 5 TD: 0.95%.
OTM: -1.04%

S&P 500
1250.56, up 6.06pts [0.49%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.84%.
OTM: -1.47%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays stated a rise. Tuesdays have no clear direction.

The PoM System: +2.75, interpretation: a moderate rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the US markets rose later in the day so expect a 8-12pt early morning rise; charts are unclear but the PoM predicts a rise; oil and the mining sector have slipped into the realms of unpredictability; no CR or ED.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? I was happy to stand back and study the FTSE hour by hour, although come 1pm I fancied the market ending the day down by 10pts and therefore should have gone a binary! 'But It's amazing what you see when you don't have your gun! Tomorrow I anticipate the market reversing, perhaps 10-20pts up. Lets see.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 28th June 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 5657, down 24pts [0.42%]
Range: 5729 - 5650.

Last 5 TD: down 0.02%.
OTM: -1.08%.

DOW:
10924, down 120pts [1.09%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.44%.
OTM: -2.14%

S&P 500
1239.20, down 11.36pts [0.91%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.06%.
OTM: -2.38%.

News items of note:
Telegraph - 'Britain's household debt mountain has continued to rise, according to new figures from the British Bankers' Association.

An unexpectedly strong jump in mortgage lending during May suggests that the housing "mini-boom" could continue well into the second half of the year.

The BBA said that banks approved 81,298 mortgages for house purchases last month, 20pc higher than last year.'


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays had no clear direction. Wednesdays are also unclear.

The PoM System: -1.25, interpretation: a drop. Recommends a 'no bet.'

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Hanson
STANDARD CHARTERED.

Economic Data:
11:00 UK CBI distributive trades support.

Note: FOMC June 28th

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the US markets heavy southern move was a tad unexpected, most, including myself, had anticipated a flat day and one in which little profit could be made. Back to Ye Olde drawing board. Expect the FTSE to open down by 18-25pts; charts are unclear and the PoM recommends a 'no bet;' CR should be positive and ED is moderate.

Early gut feeling: favour the drop.

Will I bet? Happy to sit back and watch.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK