The FTSE 2006

The FTSE, Thursday 27th July 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 5877, up 25pts [0.44%]
Range: 5878 - 5851.

Last 5 TD: up 1.73%.
OTM: +0.82%.

DOW
11102, down 1pt [0.01%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.84%.
OTM: -0.35%

S&P 500
1268.4, down 0.48pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.70%.
OTM: -0.08%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays favoured the dip. Thursday's favour the dip.

The PoM System: -0.75, interpretation: a weak dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Amvescap
Atrazeneca
British American Tobacco
BT
Carphone Warehouse
Centrica
Kingfisher
Legal and General
Reed Elsevier
Rolls-Royce
Royal Dutch Shell
Scottish & Southern Energy

Economic Data:
None UK
Jobless claims US

Areas to watch: BT [long term rise], Carphone Warehouse [drop].

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: all three markets appear to be running out of steam, or is that a pause for breath! charts and PoM still favour a minor dip; CR should really bubble the market with their results; US ED needs to be watched; SB companies have the FTSE opening up between 7 -12pts.

Early gut feeling: early rise.

Will I bet? Still Long for the week. Stop gap adjusted to 5848.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
SirFrancis said:
Hello UKHero.
I just thought I'd let you know that I still read your market prognosis on a daily basis - it is appreciated!!

Ta
Click to expand...
Ditto !
 
Scaling out the NDX long and into the FTSE short here, 1515 target on NDX and looking at 5930-50 to short on the FTSE. Cheers all. Ditto on UK hero!
 
The FTSE, Friday 28th July 2006

Thursday's results:
Close: 5929, up 52pts [0.89%]
Range: 5936 - 5877.

Last 5 TD: up 2.74%.
OTM: +1.71%.

DOW
11100, down 2pt [0.02%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.58%.
OTM: -0.37%

S&P 500
1263.19, down 5.21pts [0.41%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.14%.
OTM: -0.49%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's favoured a weak dip. Friday's favour a drop.

The PoM System: -4.00, interpretation: a drop.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Alliance & Leicester AL.L UK H1 BMO
BSkyB BSY.L UK Prelim BMO
Prudential PRU.L UK H1 BMO
Sabmiller SAB.L UK AGM

Economic Data:
None UK and US.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE continues to surge ahead on the back of strong company results and one wonders at what point the bears will step in and spoil the party, the US markets showed a positive reversal, and like the FTSE, being over par over the short term period, data suggests an additional move south; no major news items, but in general for the FTSE market news is positive; charts and PoM still favour a southern move; again, CR is expected to be positive, historically, no ED is also regarded as a market positive; SB companies have the FTSE pegged down between 28 - 34pts. The last trading day of the month favours a southern move. In all, some facts and data contradict, but the Southern move has the edge.

Early gut feeling: a decent drop.

Will I bet? Still Long for the week. Stop gap was adjusted to 5892 prior to market close and it looks as though its about to be bounced. Will be looking to go a days Short tomorrow with a Long for Monday prior to market close.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Last edited:
downbytheriver7 said:
Yeap looks like a small double top at 5930 over last 2 days. I am short.
Click to expand...

closed that for a small loss on the break of 5935, still long the ndx will look to reshort the ftse on the approach to 6000
 
downbytheriver7 said:
closed that for a small loss on the break of 5935, still long the ndx will look to reshort the ftse on the approach to 6000
Click to expand...


Did the same and lost 12pts. Hay Ho, you can't win um all.

UK
 
The FTSE, Monday 31st July 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 5974, up 45pts [0.77%]
Range: 5982 - 5904.

Last 5 TD: up 4.39%.
OTM: +2.48%.

A 255pt rise in 5 days might sound a bit excessive, and it is, but you have to analyse what is was that dragged the market South for it to reverse with such gusto: the ME crisis, the future of the US economy and the threat of an $80 barrel of Oil to name but a few. The ultimate question now is, 'have we hit a top?' My answer is, the market is where it should be, no more no less. Hereafter it becomes a little more difficult to predict the Long Term.

In my eyes the market can go a touch further, but then again, I'm not the one buying 100's of millions of shares. Therefore, over the coming weeks expect hesitancy and plenty of early morning rises followed by late afternoon dips.

The 6000 mark is indeed a tenuous position. It's like arriving at the top of Mt Everest only to ask the question 'what do we do now,' and between the puffing, due to shortness of breath caused by a wiliness to get there, the answer always comes back as a howling echo, 'lets go down a bit, take a break, do it again!' Be cautious of the 6000 position.

In general, if my prognosis is correct, how can we best predict the markets daily direction for the coming month, As said, expect a greater abundance of days when the markets rise early only to fall later in the day; the Banking and retail sectors are the ones to watch: in order for the FTSE to climb over the 6000 mark and continue with any degree of determination the long term view of the economy has to be positive. I also believe that any other sector that provides a push upward, such as Oil and Mining, will be short lived and therefore leave the market susceptible to an equal reverse.

DOW
11219, up 119pt [1.07%].

Last 5 TD: up 3.20%.
OTM: 0.70%

S&P 500
1278.55, up 15.36pts [1.22%].

Last 5 TD: up 3.06%.
OTM: 0.73%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's favoured a drop, Mondays also.

The PoM System: -2.00, interpretation: a minor drop.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
HSBC [the results will be a good clue to the FTSE's weekly and medium term direction]

This coming week also sees a lot of FTSE CR and therefore the week should be buoyant/positive. Watch Barclays, Bank of Scotland and LLoyds.

Economic Data:
09.30 UK Consumer Credit [Month on month this ED is becoming increasingly market sensitive and therefore should not be engored as a minor]
09.30 UK New Mortgages
10.30 UK GFK Consumer Confidence

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the US markets made a mad dash to the finishing line on Friday, but I think they've over spent. Expect a minor decline Monday. Market News is abnormally positive; charts and PoM predict a dip; CR and ED are the ones to watch; last day of the month favours a dip; SB companies have the FTSE up by 3-6pts.

Early gut feeling: a dip.

Will I bet? Last weeks Long is still intact and jogging, although fat in size [240pts] I can afford to let it run further. Stop gap at 5924. Fridays Short lost 12pts; Monday's now looking good for a separate Short.

On the week: a small rise.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
The FTSE, Tuesday 1st Aug 2006

Monday's results:
Close:5928, down 46pts [0.78%]
Range: 5977 - 5928.

Last 5 TD: up 1.62%.
OTM: +1.70%.

DOW
11185, down 34pts [0.30%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.22%.
OTM: 0.40%

S&P 500
1276.66, down 1.89pts [0.15%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.25%.
OTM: 0.58%.

News items of note:
Well worth a read:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/07/31/ucredit31.xml

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its two-year run of interest rate increases as the United States economy enters a stretch of slower economic growth, Fed officials said on Monday.

But a higher-than-desired rate of U.S. core inflation was making the prospects for the August Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and an end-point for rate increases, hard to peg.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's favoured a drop> Tuesday's are mixed, some indicators point up, others down.

The PoM System: +2.0, interpretation: favours the rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Antofagasta
HBOS
Ladbrokes

Economic Data:
07.00 UK Nationwide House Prices Jul
09.30 UK PMI Manufacturing Jul

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: profit takers did come out to play today but only in small numbers, I guess the consensus is 'Hold On;' Charts are undecided but the PoM favours the rise; tow heavy weights reporting tomorrow which will be a positive for the market, ED is moderate; News appears positive with the FOMC comments; SB companies have the FTSE up by 3-5pts.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? Last weeks Long has been pulled by its stop gap; a separate short did well; tomorrow a Long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Looking around threads I don't usually get into...


The FTSE index has a higher probability of rising to above 5950 tomorow than to falling much below 5930.
 
TheBramble said:
Looking around threads I don't usually get into...


The FTSE index has a higher probability of rising to above 5950 tomorow than to falling much below 5930.
Click to expand...

Whats that based on then? Guess you mean its just going to be a flat day! I personally think we might see 6000 print before we get a good pullback, but I will let the price action show me the way.
 
downbytheriver7 said:
Whats that based on then?
Click to expand...
It's based on my prototyping a method for establishing the longer timeframe players' intent. I always use an instrument I don't trade or even look at regularly when I prototype to precisely avoid bias or influence from accretions of instrument knowledge, characteristics or profile.

And is quite at odds with the Bearish bias I would otherwise have had from the descending triangle initiated at the close last Friday. If I were trading my normal intraday setups and trading this instrument right now, I'd be looking for a break out from either side of that triangle. But if the longer-term view has the Bulls having a higher probability of coming into action, I'd be better off just looking to trade a break to the upside only. Wouldn't I.

I think Donchian had a phrase that covered this. Something about not needing to chase the lower probability trades as there would always be another higher probability one along soon.

hth
 
TheBramble said:
Looking around threads I don't usually get into...


The FTSE index has a higher probability of rising to above 5950 tomorow than to falling much below 5930.
Click to expand...

Based on my own data I agree. However, I'm getting a small kicking with my Long at the moment. Any further South and my SG will kick in. Lets see.

UK
 
TheBramble said:
Looking around threads I don't usually get into...


The FTSE index has a higher probability of rising to above 5950 tomorrow than to falling much below 5930.
Click to expand...
Works every time.....

:eek:

Well, it is just a prototype....

Interestingly though, even if I had been trading this one today and after getting the breakout, I always wait for a re-test. This didn't occur and therefore wouldn't have ended up taking a trade anyway.

I'm probably way too cautious for my own good.
 
The FTSE, Wednesday 2nd Aug 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close:5880, down 47pts [0.80%]
Range: 5949 - 5867. A swing of 82pts.

Last 5 TD: up 0.08%.
OTM: -0.80%.

DOW
11125, down 60pts [0.54%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.20%.
OTM: -0.54%

S&P 500
1270.92, down 5.74pts [0.45%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.21%.
OTM: 0.45%.

News items of note:
Well worth a read:
HBOS Debts soar
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/08/01/uhbos01.xml

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's were mixed. Wednesdays show a bottom in the last forty minutes of trade.This does not mean that the market will turn, more of 'that's enough for now.'

The PoM System: +4.0, interpretation: favours the rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
BOC
Cadbury Schweppes
Lloyds
Xstrata [Expecting decent results]

Economic Data:
09.30 UK PMI Services Jul
12.00 UK BOE Interest Rate Announcement [the one to watch]
Also of importance:
13.30 US Initial Jobless Claims


The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the market fell fowl to profit takers today ahead of tomorrows BOE rates announcement, so if the news is good expect a 80-90pt rise, or a 30-40pt drop if bad; charts are unclear, but the PoM still favours the rise; CR results are expected to be positive but will be drowned by the ED results; US markets are favoured to rise; SB companies have the FTSE up by 6pts on opening.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? Tuesday's Long lost 18pts. I take it on the chin and move on. Tomorrow I'm not overly confident for either direction, although I prefer the Long. Will be watching from the fence.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
TheBramble said:
Works every time.....

:eek:

Well, it is just a prototype....

Interestingly though, even if I had been trading this one today and after getting the breakout, I always wait for a re-test. This didn't occur and therefore wouldn't have ended up taking a trade anyway.

I'm probably way too cautious for my own good.
Click to expand...

Perhaps its the timing. Tomorrow may see 5950 rather then 5830

UK
 
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