The FTSE 2006

[downbytheriver7]

Hi Down - I think FTSE should come off - but I think that the dow may still have a bit more to go tonight- depends how it closes

Might go short in the morning or maybe tonight - this will be a bet to nothing.

I wouldnt be shorting the FTSE until atleast 5750-5800 otherwise your asking for a kicking. Will be lots tommorrow who think the bottom is in due to today's action and will now buy any dip. The easy money on the short side has been made. Same for the DOW, SPX and NDX. I sold all my longs gradually over the day and did miss abit as I was watching the world cup, but hey ho can't complain. Will be looking to buy any dip short term.

Cheers All.

 

[ukhero]

Hi Down - I think FTSE should come off - but I think that the dow may still have a bit more to go tonight- depends how it closes

Might go short in the morning or maybe tonight - this will be a bet to nothing.

You are correct about the US markets - look at um go....

I don't know about a short in the morning as it's too early to tell. But factors are certainly leaning that way.

Good trading

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 16th June 2006

Thursday's results:
Close: 5619, up 112pts [2.04%]
Range: 5636 - 5536.

Last 5 TD: down 0.62%.
OTM: -1.76%.

DOW:
11015, up 198pts [1.83%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.73%.
OTM: -1.33%

S&P 500
1256.16, up 26.12pts [2.12%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.34%.
OTM: -1.04%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays had no strong indication but favoured the rise above a fall. Fridays, due to today's outstanding rise they are difficult to read and therefore show no clear direction for tomorrow.

The PoM System: +3.75, interpretation: a minor rise, also recommends a 'No bet.'

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Centrica.

Economic Data:
None UK.
13:30 US Current Account Balance Q1 -224.9bn -222bn
14:45 US Michigan Sentiment June.

Note: June Triple-witching tomorrow.

Areas to watch: Oil, set to rise further; miners, may end the day at evens.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: expect the FTSE to open up by 20pts; the US markets continue to power ahead and some say 'about time,' I say a little too fast, so I'm expecting a minor decline; charts are unclear and the PoM favours a minor rise coupled with a 'No bet' due to the triple-witching; CR should be positive, no UK ED but the US ED results may cause an unbalance with the markets.

Early gut feeling: Neutral.

Will I bet? My late Wednesday Long is still running with a 25pt stop gap. looking at hourly Binary/SB scalping tomorrow.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[sean01]

Dow should come off later on tonight. (might go up a bit) Still got the short from last night.

Regards


Sean

 

[sean01]

My thoughts for Monday - THE FTSE will open down on Monday- (wave 5 or a larger wave 1) , - has to complete but will recover during the afternoon/Tuesday

Hopefully, the Dow might open up a bit - then I will be putting a sell order order in on the Dow- as it should come off will put the stop at about 11050. I reckon that the Dow turned late on Friday night. Although only a correction going down - it should come down about 150 points- fingers crossed!

Tuesday - will then be going short on the FTSE

Good luck

sean01

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 19th June 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 5597, down 21pts [0.39%]
Range: 5701 - 5594.

Last 5 TD: down -1.01%.
OTM: -2.15%.

DOW:
11014, down 0.64pt [0.01%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.15%.
OTM: -1.33%

S&P 500
1251.54, down 4.62pts [0.37%].

Last 5 TD: down 0.02%.
OTM: -1.41%.

News items of note:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Top executives at three big U.S. oil companies defended record profits on Sunday as necessary to finance future investment, and one cautioned that summer gasoline pump prices could go higher with hurricane season underway.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays, due to the outstanding rise on Thursday they were difficult to read and therefore showed no clear direction. Monday, a debatable rise.

The PoM System, as it stands, with data still to come in: -1.25, interpretation: a minor dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
News system down.

Economic Data:
News system down.

Areas to watch: the Nikkei tomorrow will be a good indication as to the markets early morning direction.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE is expected to open up by 5-8pts; charts favour the rise which conflicts with the PoM result [although there's data still to be added] which favours a minor decline; CR and ED have yet to be added; as it stands, the markets appear to be neutral in manor with no clear signal as to which way they will move; the FTSE will be easily moved by daily news;

Early gut feeling: no clear direction. It's a neutral day and can go either way.

Will I bet? Favour the dip but will be looking towards scalping the day.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 20th June 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 5626, up 28pts [0.51%]
Range: 5701 - 5594.

Last 5 TD: up 0.13%.
OTM: -1.64%.

DOW:
10942, down 72pts [0.66%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.15%.
OTM: -1.33%

S&P 500
1240.14, down 11.40pts [0.91%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.34%.
OTM: -2.32%.

Both US markets have now slipped into a negative figure for the year. This was expected, although somewhat delayed, due to the continuing threat of a global rise in interest rates. Is there more to come? Several analysts agree that, the markets will be down on the year by 3-7%. Lets see.

News items of note:

FT.com - 'Crude oil futures slipped on Monday after Iran made a more conciliatory tone in its negotiations over its planned nuclear programme.

Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran’s foreign minister called a Western package of incentives aimed at persuading Tehran to stop enriching uranium a “step forward,” echoing comments by the country’s president a day earlier.

A press reports on Monday said that Iran is ready to limit its nuclear program but won’t suspend uranium enrichment as a condition for talks, citing two administration insiders.

IPE Brent for August delivery slipped 71 cents to $68.09 a barrel in early morning London trade.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays indicated a debatable rise. Tuesdays a dip.

The PoM System: -7, interpretation: a confident drop.

[Yesterdays PoM result was adjusted from -1.25 to +0.25 after receiving delayed data]

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
British Energy

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Public Finances.

Areas to watch: Oil, expected to dip further; Miners, weakening due to lower metal prices; banking sector, due to being overly buoyant on Monday we may see a minor dip tomorrow.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: one step forward, two back. The US markets are still in a decline mode until the FOMC result on 28th June, and until then, expect the markets to shuffle up and down from there present positions; charts and PoM agree with a decline - the PoM has an abnormaly high factor [which is making me nervous]; news favours a decline in Oil price, which is good overall, but there seems to be a time delay for the markets to reflect this; CR and ED are tame. Expect the FTSE to open down by 8-12pts.

Early gut feeling: a decent drop before noon. Thereafter, not sure.

Will I bet? Today's scalping was dire. Need more practice! Already short for tomorrow morning.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[sean01]

Thoughts:

Did well on the Dow today - 80 + points

Will wait for this to recover- tomorrow before putting another sell order in.

The FTSE- have missed the boat a bit - should come off a bit more - say to about 5500-tomorrow morning -

Good luck

Sean01

 

[downbytheriver7]

Thoughts:

Did well on the Dow today - 80 + points

Will wait for this to recover- tomorrow before putting another sell order in.

The FTSE- have missed the boat a bit - should come off a bit more - say to about 5500-tomorrow morning -

Good luck

Sean01

Doubt the FTSE goes to 5500, actually think we might get a small rally today as most are expecting a retest of recent lows, same for NDX, SPX and DOW. FTSE already reversed nicely of earlier lows to the upside.

Sell the rallies still seems the favoured approach for now but I'll be buying the dips short term until resistance gives rise for a short oppourtunity - NDX my main place to be.

 

[dcarrigan]

Doubt the FTSE goes to 5500 tommorrow, actually think we might get a small rally today as most are expecting a retest of recent lows, same for NDX, SPX and DOW. FTSE already reversed nicely of earlier lows to the upside.

Sell the rallies still seems the favoured approach for now but I'll be buying the dips short term until resistance gives rise for a short oppourtunity - NDX my main place to be.

spot on d river. would of made a lot of points selling rallies on ft today.

 

[sean01]

Hi - its a different way of trading - at the moment I have an account with CMC. If I try scapling -buying dips/selling rallies - the spreads are just too much- risk reward ratio is not worth it..

I just try and get the home runs

Regarrds

Sean01

 

[downbytheriver7]

Hi - its a different way of trading - at the moment I have an account with CMC. If I try scapling -buying dips/selling rallies - the spreads are just too much- risk reward ratio is not worth it..

I just try and get the home runs

Regarrds

Sean01

I use IG Markets, spreads on FTSE are only 2pts for the Mini (£2 contract), min commission amount £10, but otherwise its just based on the spread. Low enough to be able to enter and exit positions without worrying about the commission really. I normally trade between 2 - 15 mini contracts at a time. So if you are scalping you dont need more than 5-10pts really anyhow. Not great for the NDX and SPX though but the DOW is reasonable.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Doubt the FTSE goes to 5500 tommorrow, actually think we might get a small rally today as most are expecting a retest of recent lows, same for NDX, SPX and DOW. FTSE already reversed nicely of earlier lows to the upside.

Sell the rallies still seems the favoured approach for now but I'll be buying the dips short term until resistance gives rise for a short oppourtunity - NDX my main place to be.

There's that rally!....5500 very unlikely.

 

[sean01]

I did say nearly - the market went to 5587( in the morning)- I am not trading the FTSE anyway- I am looking at the Dow.

I take it that you have never called the market incorrect-

not posting here again-

 

[downbytheriver7]

I did say nearly - the market went to 5587( in the morning)- I am not trading the FTSE anyway- I am looking at the Dow.

I take it that you have never called the market incorrect-

not posting here again-

aplogies if u took that the wrong way..of course i have made plenty of incorrect calls. i thought from your posts you were trading the ftse, confusing....

the point of this board is that we all have different opinions and i justified my thinking for a rally today due to all looking for a retest would mean we wouldn't get one, don't see why u find it so offensive, at the end of the day we all all either wrong or right, if no-one made a call or statement then there would be no posts on this board!!!!

5587 and 5500 is a big difference as the latter suggests a potential break to new lows where as 5587 is some back filling of the recent low....the FTSE and DOW trade in a somewhat disjointed tandem so its beneficial to be looking at them both.

anyway good luck with your trading

 

[ukhero]

aplogies if u took that the wrong way..of course i have made plenty of incorrect calls. i thought from your posts you were trading the ftse, confusing....

the point of this board is that we all have different opinions and i justified my thinking for a rally today due to all looking for a retest would mean we wouldn't get one, don't see why u find it so offensive, at the end of the day we all all either wrong or right, if no-one made a call or statement then there would be no posts on this board!!!!

5587 and 5500 is a big difference as the latter suggests a potential break to new lows where as 5587 is some back filling of the recent low....the FTSE and DOW trade in a somewhat disjointed tandem so its beneficial to be looking at them both.

anyway good luck with your trading

My works computer has been down all day [and will be for the foreseeable future] so I've been unable to follow the markets or comment within the Forum.

You are quite correct DBTR, we all make the odd bad call from time to time, and believe me when I say, I've made some howlers! But we move on.

Sean01, don't take it so personal. You made a bold call and that takes an element of guts. So it matters not, at the end of the day I'd like to read more of your comments, right or wrong.

Good trading.

P.s England 2 Sweden 2. This will have no effect on the markets tomorrow.

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 21st June 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 5658, up 32pts [0.57%]
Range: 5658 - 5585.

Last 5 TD: up 2.50% [a touch heavy here]
OTM: -1.07%.

DOW:
10974, up 32pts [0.30%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.50%.
OTM: -1.69%

S&P 500
1240.12, down 0.02pts [0.00%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.36%.
OTM: -2.32%.

News items of note:

Telegraph - 'UK public finances recorded their worst ever May performance, suggesting that the rest of the fiscal year will have to improve in order for Chancellor Gordon Brown to meet his targets, official figures showed today.

The Office for National Statistics revealed that public sector net borrowing, the government's preferred measure of the public finances, stood at £10bn in May, wider than the £9.4bn recorded during the same month in 2005.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays stated a dip. Wednesdays have no clear direction.

The PoM System: -0.25, interpretation: a weak possibility of a dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
DSG INTERNATIONAL
HBOS [the one to watch]
SAINSBURY

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Bank of England minutes.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE turned late afternoon assisted by the rising US markets, which presents us with the question 'is the market top heavy by 30-40pts.' Lets see. Charts are unclear and the PoM predicts a weak possibility of a dip; CR is moderate but we've already seen the buying, so tomorrow should be the reverse, ED should be interesting; expect the FTSE to open up at evens.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? To be honest, I don't know which way the market will turn tomorrow. It's the fence for me.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

It's 02:10Am and the Nikkei is struggling. Down 140pts. Good indication here as to how the FTSE will open.

Still sitting on the fence.

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

It's 02:10Am and the Nikkei is struggling. Down 140pts. Good indication here as to how the FTSE will open.

Still sitting on the fence.

UK

Umm not sure about the FTSE but I think the US markets all look to be basing now above their recent lows, I see this action as a positive for now aslong as we don't go to near to the recent lows, same for th FTSE I feel. Although I will be eating humble pie if we touch 5500 today!

Only long SPX and NDX but looking to enter a long on the FTSE if we get a small but stable pullback. Markets look even to slightly up, currently....still think 'sell the rallies' is giving way to 'buy the dip'....we'll see in hindsight.

 

[High Risk]

Umm not sure about the FTSE but I think the US markets all look to be basing now above their recent lows, I see this action as a positive for now aslong as we don't go to near to the recent lows, same for th FTSE I feel. Although I will be eating humble pie if we touch 5500 today!

Only long SPX and NDX but looking to enter a long on the FTSE if we get a small but stable pullback. Markets look even to slightly up, currently....still think 'sell the rallies' is giving way to 'buy the dip'....we'll see in hindsight.

At 9.11am UK it's 3504 STOX and FTSE 5625, looks a great BUY on daily chart...and Asia held up well today....