The FTSE 2006

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 5th May 2006

Thursday's results:
Close: 6037, up 27pts [0.45%].
Range: 6001 - 6045.

Last 5 TD: down 1.08%.
OTM: up 0.25%.

Thursday's DOW:
11438, up 38pts [0.34%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.50%.
OTM: 0.63%

Thursday's S&P 500
1312.25 up 4.40pts [0.34%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.20%.
OTM: 0.13%.

News items of note:

Timesonline - 'The Bank of England today kept interest rates on hold amid growing uncertainty over the future course of the cost of borrowing. The decision to delay any change to interest rates, which have been held since August 2005, was widely expected in the City, where the key debate is now over where rates will head from here.'

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - 'The European Central Bank kept rates on hold at 2.5 percent on Thursday as expected, leaving markets awaiting guidance on an expected rate rise next month and the pace of hikes for the rest of the year.

FT.com - 'Copper prices soared to new highs on Thursday as shrinking stockpiles of the metal and the continuing threat of production disruptions stoked supply fears.
BHP Billiton, the world’s largest miner, said that labour disputes and equipment shortages, added to rising global demand, would be likely to result in a shortfall of copper concentrate through to the end of 2008, while planned new mines and production plants come online.' - Could we see copper as the new oil!

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's was uncertain. Fridays also have no clear direction. Not much help there then!

The PoM System: +1.00, interpretation: favours the rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.

Economic Data:
No ED for the UK
13:30 US Nonfarm payrolls Apr.
20:00 US Consumer credit Mar.
Areas to watch: Oil, copper.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: judging by the news copper is set to rise even higher in the coming weeks, which in turn will push the miners even higher; expect the FTSE to open up close to evens in the morning; charts are not clear and a weak possibility of a rise from the PoM result; no companies reporting or ED; the last US Non farm saw the FTSE drop 54pts; the FTSE has risen 12 out of the 16 Fridays this year.

Early gut feeling: a rise

Will I bet? Holding yesterdays Long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Out my NDX @ 1705 looking to reenter @ 1700 holding the FTSE long looking for 6045 to give way to 6080

Closed the FTSE long @ 6076 and long the NDX @ 1704

 

[kriesau]

Closed the FTSE long @ 6076 and long the NDX @ 1704

Are you going to hold your NDX long over the weekend ?
NDX rise looking quite anaemic in comparison to the Dow and SPX.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Are you going to hold your NDX long over the weekend ?
NDX rise looking quite anaemic in comparison to the Dow and SPX.

Added to it largely, and holding over the weekend, I am looking for NDX 1720-1740 next week.

 

[downbytheriver7]

All, I know this is a FTSE board put I do post my other trades as I trade them along with the FTSE as they have relevance. Cheers.

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 8th May 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 6091, up 54pts [0.91%].
Range: 6093 - 6033.

Last 5 TD: up 0.55%.
OTM: up 1.16%.

Neutral.

Friday's DOW:
11577, up 138pts [1.21%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.85%.
OTM: 1.85%

Overly high.

Friday's S&P 500
1325 up 13.51pts [1.03%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.16%.
OTM: 1.16%.

Moderate high.

News items of note:

Worth a read: Record numbers go bankrupt as debt mountain builds up.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-2167433,00.html#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=Business

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays had no clear direction. Mondays a rise.

The PoM System: +1.50, interpretation: favours the rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Reuters

Economic Data:
09:30 UK PPI

Areas to watch: Copper, Banking sector.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE has been falling in line with the American markets of late and with the DOW flirting at a record high, and due for a breather, we may see a small tumble in the next day or so; both charts and POM predict a weak rise; companies and economic news are tame.

Early gut feeling: early rise.

Will I bet? Several warning signals from my data show that the DOW has climbed to fast over the past 25 days, and as such I intend to go a small short; the FTSE is in a solid neutral position, but without the American markets support I doulbt it will shuffle past and stay beyond the 6100 tomorrow. If early morning idicators are positinve will be going Long on the FTSE and canceling mid afternoon.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

All, I know this is a FTSE board put I do post my other trades as I trade them along with the FTSE as they have relevance. Cheers.

Read your comments with interest. Please carry on.

Yours

UK

 

[aspex]

Is there a thread for specific stocks within the FTSE100?
With the current choppy performance, I feel there is an opportunity to "pair" longs and shorts within the index.
For example : EMG (long) with BAY or SN.(short) -ignoring the commodity stocks of course.
Gives some protection against sudden swings.

Any thoughts?

 

[Dinos]

Morning to you all, I haven't traded for a couple of years, but am moving back into the environment. I trust I can join you on these charts and will once back to speed hopefully contribute to the board. In the meantime, I'm trying to update myself with the products currently availble on the market to assist me in my charting and analysis, I would like to ask your views and opinions on which products (free and purchase) you use and favour. Thanks in anticipation. Dinos

 

[ukhero]

Is there a thread for specific stocks within the FTSE100?
With the current choppy performance, I feel there is an opportunity to "pair" longs and shorts within the index.
For example : EMG (long) with BAY or SN.(short) -ignoring the commodity stocks of course.
Gives some protection against sudden swings.

Any thoughts?

Apex,

There's a 'UK Shares' within the forum under the Sub-forum title of 'Markets.'

You could still post here within the FTSE forum if you believe various stocks will shuffle the market one-way or another. Or, as you say, anotherway to edge your positions.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

Morning to you all, I haven't traded for a couple of years, but am moving back into the environment. I trust I can join you on these charts and will once back to speed hopefully contribute to the board. In the meantime, I'm trying to update myself with the products currently availble on the market to assist me in my charting and analysis, I would like to ask your views and opinions on which products (free and purchase) you use and favour. Thanks in anticipation. Dinos

Dinos,

Welcome.

Approx 90% of data comes from my growing list of Excel spread sheets. I also use ADVFN and own my spread sheets for charts; ADVFN, Digital Look, Timesonline, FT.com and Reuters for additional info on companies, news and worldly happenings. Haven't had a need so far to pay a monthly subscription to any of the many data providers on the Internet.

UK

 

[ukhero]

FTSE @ 6080, down 11pts.

Miners are handsomely up, and seeing that Copper has just opened: down 480, we'll see the miners drop.

Expect the FTSE to drop further in the next hour.


UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 9th May 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 6067, down 24pts [0.39%].
Range: 6059 - 6133. Opened up exceptionaly high.

Last 5 TD: up 0.77%.
OTM: up 0.77%.

Position: Neutral.

Monday's DOW:
11587, up 6pts [0.06%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.11%.
OTM: 1.90%

Position: still over par. I believe the market is anticipating a null interest rate on Wednesday.

Monday's S&P 500
1324.66 down 1.10pts [0.08%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.49%.
OTM: 1.08%.

Position: moved from moderate high to over par.

News items of note:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil fell $1 on Monday on hopes tension over OPEC member Iran's nuclear ambition will ease after Tehran made an unprecedented move to contact Washington.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays favoured a rise [which we had]. Tuesdays have no clear direction.


The PoM System: -2.25, interpretation: favours a minor dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
BAA [Traffic]
Compass
Corus
Sage
Unilever
Xstrata [Expected to be good. But whatever the result, it will be the bench mark for the miners for the remaining week. Watch closely]

Economic Data:
BRC sales monitor

Note: FOMC Wednesday. And prior to the release expect the markets to stagnate to a small degree.

Areas to watch: Oil, copper, miners, gold.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE was dragged lower by profit takers, the oil and the mining sectors, expect similar tomorrow, and as such don't expect any large leaps one way or another; charts are unclear and the PoM predicts a weak dip; Company results have been factored in and should be positive on the whole, ED is tame.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? At the moment I favour the short.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Well back from a long w/e in Rome where I still managed to find an internet cafe where I closed out a late friday FTSE short for a small gain, closed out my NDX long for evens and kept open my DOW and Gold short. No strong signals on anything yet! Sidelines for me....but that can always change quickly!

 

[Dinos]

UKhero, we do you / we can I get details on the PoM you use?, thanks in anticipation

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 10th May 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 6105, up 38pts [0.63%].
Range: 6054 - 6109.

Last 5 TD: up 0.41%.
OTM: up 1.40%.

Position: Neutral.

Monday's DOW:
11639, up 55pts [0.48%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.95%.
OTM: 2.38%

Position: still over par.

Analysts predicted that US stocks would remain flat on Tuesday [self included] as investors kept their powder dry ahead of Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. How wrong we were. The DOW continues to surge ahead. If it goes pear shaped on Wednesday expect a lot of broken Longs.

Monday's S&P 500
1325.14 up 0.48pts [0.04%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.91%.
OTM: 1.11%.

Position: moved from over par down to moderate high.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesdays had no clear direction. Wednesdays favour an early morning dip.

The PoM System: -0.50, interpretation: favours a weak dip. Also recommends a 'No Bet.'

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Aviva
Gallaher
ITV
Old Mutual

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Trade in goods & services
10:30 UK Bank of England inflation report
19:15 US FOMC

Areas to watch: Oil, miners and copper.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW and FTSE feel positive about the rates decision tomorrow more so then the S&P, and as such are distorting charts and data; expect the FTSE to open up 3-7pts; charts and PoM predict an early morning dip; company results should be positive but the economic results are the ones to watch.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? The last two days have been difficult to predict and again ever more so tomorrow; the American rates decision is paramount to all the markets direction. It's the fence for me.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

UKhero, we do you / we can I get details on the PoM you use?, thanks in anticipation

Hi Dinos,

The PoM system is a mathematical system which I use to ascertain the most likely direction of the market. It is my own system. You won't find it else where.

It has it's strengths and weaknesses. The last two days have been incorrect!

It's a tool I use to supplement others in order to give me a greater understanding of the markets potential direction. I don't hold much to its result unless its spits out a factor of four in either direction.

In interest, year to date:

Correct prediction versus incorrect prediction: 56 /28

However, its strength lies in the points attributed to the direction:

Points correct versus points incorrect: 156.4 / 40.8

In all, it has merit. It is a supplement to data, charts, news, general observation of the market and hard nosed home work. I don't believe there's any solitary module that will give a marketeer that cutting edge above of other. But I'll keep searching.

Good trading.

yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 11th May 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 6083, down 22pts [0.36%].
Range: 6079 - 6110.

Last 5 TD: up 1.23%.
OTM: up 1.04%.

Position: Neutral.

Wednesday's DOW:
11642, up 2pts [0.02%].

Last 5 TD: up 2.11%.
OTM: 2.41%

Position: still over par.

Wednesday's S&P 500
1322.85 down 2.29pts [0.17%].

Last 5 TD: up 1.15%.
OTM: 0.94%.

Position: moderate high.

News items of note:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve lifted U.S. interest rates for a 16th straight time on Wednesday, and said it may need to raise rates more to keep inflation risks down in its nearly two-year-old credit-tightening campaign.

As widely expected, the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the benchmark federal funds rate target a quarter-percentage point to 5 percent, its highest level since April 2001.

The FOMC -- meeting for only the second time under new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke -- said in a post-meeting statement that further policy firming may be needed.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays favoured an early morning dip. Thursdays have been distorted due to the FOMC.

The PoM System: -0.75, interpretation: favours a weak dip.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
3I
BOC
Lloyd's
Royal Sun & Alliance

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Industrial Production.

Areas to watch: Oil and miners

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the American markets seem somewhat mixed after the FOMC result, this may have a knock -on effect early morning; charts are distorted, but the PoM predicts a weak dip; company results should be positive on the whole, ED is tame.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? Holding back. Will be watching the FTSE closely but I'm not expecting any major movement.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[Dinos]

UK, thanks for your response, good trading to you to. Dinos

 

[downbytheriver7]

Well quick update gone short the DOW @ 11660, long the NDX @ 1695, short Gold @ 706 and finally looking for a small short on the FTSE....