downbytheriver7
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dc2000 said:
Yes it is rather! Could either work out very well or not very well...FTSE still not decided on the short yet could turn it to a small long as a hedge..not sure yet. But if the rally is to continue then tech (NDX) needs to join the party and the DOW and Gold might fall out of favour/underperform. Oil prices seem to be stablizing so that could cap the FTSE at a double top for now.
downbytheriver7
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kriesau said:
Looking for some rotation! But its bit of market call - normally I just go with TA signals particularly the SAR and MA. Gold is the most risk for me - I have a little room and will increase my short position if it gets to $750 but after that it will be time to take a loss.
All this chatting - should have put on my FTSE short @ 6114 (LOL).
downbytheriver7
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downbytheriver7 said:
Gold ouch, NDX big big ouch, FTSE ok, DOW ok
Dare I average my NDX position down for a relief bounce, not sure....
downbytheriver7
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Peter6 said:Muchos respect.
Hope you got the short on the FTSE. Had my long in place and got seriously hurt.
Actually down for the day as my NDX long and Gold short got hit more than my DOW and FTSE short. Closed my DOW and FTSE short and marginally increased my NDX long right at the lows (well lows so far today)..
There has been a rotation - out of stocks it seems and into commodities (yet again)! LOL.
I am looking at it as a possible a blow off top in commodities and a bottom in tech.
Was it just me ?
Hi all,
I was going so well this week and then today's sudden continuous drop just slapped me in the face. I had expected a reversal @6062 at 15:30 and thought that this was the end and start of the next rise, so put a small long in place.
Had to go into a meeting so just set a small profit limit but forgot to shorten my stop. I came back to my desk to find an ugly cascading candle set-up...Must admit I then panicked and just closed it (Which was lucky).
But I was wondering, did anyone else not see it ( Will make me feel better) and for those who did see it, could you explain what you saw to continue or set a short.
Thanks all, and a great thread.
Rob
Hi all,
I was going so well this week and then today's sudden continuous drop just slapped me in the face. I had expected a reversal @6062 at 15:30 and thought that this was the end and start of the next rise, so put a small long in place.
Had to go into a meeting so just set a small profit limit but forgot to shorten my stop. I came back to my desk to find an ugly cascading candle set-up...Must admit I then panicked and just closed it (Which was lucky).
But I was wondering, did anyone else not see it ( Will make me feel better) and for those who did see it, could you explain what you saw to continue or set a short.
Thanks all, and a great thread.
Rob
downbytheriver7
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Elefteros said:
Well call me silly but I buying this dip and infact increased my Gold short and NDX long, both are in the red currently. But maybe today was required before a next leg up. The FTSE got off lightly [trading at 6040 from a recent high of 6140 ]and the DOW did also [trading at 11517 of a recent high of 11674]. So really its not that bad. Now the NDX is a little different and is really stinking up the joint, back at 1658 is atleast 5-nil to the bears. I am going to stick with my brave bet of a NDX relief rally and Gold drop. Worst case I give back a months gains. With the NDX I see resistance at previous support of 1680 and maybe I am mad but I think there is a gap to fill on Gold to 660 or 640 and that would be put in the green quite nicely. I really must stop wearing my contarian hat....and seeing as this is a FTSE board I am standing aside for now possibly will go long if the other indices bounce from here.
The FTSE, Friday 12th May 2006
Thursday's results:
Close: 6042, down 41pts [0.68%].
Range: 6114 - 6039.
Last 5 TD: up 0.11%.
OTM: up 0.36%.
Position: slipped from Neutral to low.
If not for the miners the FTSE would have dropped 60-80pts, as it is, we have to be thankful. The question now is, will it slide further back? The crucial position still remains at 5990, but I don't believe we'll see it tomorrow as the miners will continue to prop up / slow down any slide within the market until the price of copper reverses.
Personal comment: the sad tale about it all is, I chucked all I had on a short with the DOW after the FOMC decision, and as we know the market went up. I've lost all this years profit and then some. Is there a lesson to be learned here? Perhaps. Some may say foolish! Even, bad money management! All I know is, if my data and homework says a market is going down, and down with a bloody thump, would I do it again? You're damn right I would! I'm a marketeer and bloody proud of it! I'll lick my financial wounds and move on...
Note: must work more on my timing. Must work more on my timing...
Thursday's DOW:
11500, down 141pts [1.22%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.56%.
OTM: 1.19%
Position: moved down from over weight to neutral.
Monday's S&P 500
1305.92 down 16.93 [1.28%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.47%.
OTM: -0.34%.
Position: moved down from moderate high to moderate low.
News items of note:
Worth a read, 'Housing market boom stuns estate agents:'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/05/11/ucwide11.xml
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays were distorted due to the FOMC. Fridays, again, are distorted.
The PoM System: +4.0, interpretation: favours the rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
None.
Economic Data:
None.
Areas to watch: Oil and copper / miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: have the bears finished dancing? expect the FTSE to open up down 6-12pts; the FTSE is down but not overly so, and the American markets may dip further; charts are unclear but the PoM predicts a reversal of today - [chant] cum on you PoM! No company or ED, which historically favours a minor rise.
Early gut feeling: neutral/bull
Will I bet? So far this year the PoM has been correct 18 times out of 20 predictions when the factor has been 4 or more. Worth a small Long, but watch the American markets.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Thursday's results:
Close: 6042, down 41pts [0.68%].
Range: 6114 - 6039.
Last 5 TD: up 0.11%.
OTM: up 0.36%.
Position: slipped from Neutral to low.
If not for the miners the FTSE would have dropped 60-80pts, as it is, we have to be thankful. The question now is, will it slide further back? The crucial position still remains at 5990, but I don't believe we'll see it tomorrow as the miners will continue to prop up / slow down any slide within the market until the price of copper reverses.
Personal comment: the sad tale about it all is, I chucked all I had on a short with the DOW after the FOMC decision, and as we know the market went up. I've lost all this years profit and then some. Is there a lesson to be learned here? Perhaps. Some may say foolish! Even, bad money management! All I know is, if my data and homework says a market is going down, and down with a bloody thump, would I do it again? You're damn right I would! I'm a marketeer and bloody proud of it! I'll lick my financial wounds and move on...
Note: must work more on my timing. Must work more on my timing...
Thursday's DOW:
11500, down 141pts [1.22%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.56%.
OTM: 1.19%
Position: moved down from over weight to neutral.
Monday's S&P 500
1305.92 down 16.93 [1.28%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.47%.
OTM: -0.34%.
Position: moved down from moderate high to moderate low.
News items of note:
Worth a read, 'Housing market boom stuns estate agents:'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/05/11/ucwide11.xml
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays were distorted due to the FOMC. Fridays, again, are distorted.
The PoM System: +4.0, interpretation: favours the rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
None.
Economic Data:
None.
Areas to watch: Oil and copper / miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: have the bears finished dancing? expect the FTSE to open up down 6-12pts; the FTSE is down but not overly so, and the American markets may dip further; charts are unclear but the PoM predicts a reversal of today - [chant] cum on you PoM! No company or ED, which historically favours a minor rise.
Early gut feeling: neutral/bull
Will I bet? So far this year the PoM has been correct 18 times out of 20 predictions when the factor has been 4 or more. Worth a small Long, but watch the American markets.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
downbytheriver7
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More ouch...the FTSE did not get off lightly today. The commodity graphs look outrageous. Will wait to see how the markets close out the week. A sharp bounce will be on the cards when the markets final tick up, even if it is temporary, shorts will cover and those looking to sell into some strength will no doubt sell, then we will see if this dip was seen as a buying opportunity or not.
downbytheriver7 said:
Agree.
Note the copper price has dragged the miners even further south.
Came back on line after walking the dog only to find that the FTSE had fallen past the crucial 5990 mark. Damn, missed it!
We seem to be bumping along on 5950. Lets see what happens when the American markets open up. Although down as I write, I just don't know.
UK
downbytheriver7
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off long FTSE @ 5920
downbytheriver7
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downbytheriver7 said:
luckily got distracted at work and did not get chance to place the trade - and have not now...
On the 6th, 7th and 10th May 2004, the FTSE dropped a total of 3.35% - with the 10th [as a Monday] as the largest solo drop for the year @ 2.29%.
The following day [11th], the market finished up @ 1.35%.
Historically the month of May is prone to such heavy drops, and in most instances in groups of three. We've had our three for a total of 3.19%. Time to consider a Long.
UK
The following day [11th], the market finished up @ 1.35%.
Historically the month of May is prone to such heavy drops, and in most instances in groups of three. We've had our three for a total of 3.19%. Time to consider a Long.
UK
