The FTSE 2006

For a bit of fun I track up days/down days. Last Monday was down,giving a count of 9up 7down so far this year(2 Bank holidays). Until last Tuesday the count for Tuesdays, was- 15 down and 2up-those two being the days after a holiday,so in effect a proxy for Monday. Last Tuesday I should have bet the farm after telling the world it would be an up day. For Wed Thurs and Fri we have to date -11up and 7 down days for each. Annually we have a bias of 53% up days,and on a cumulative count we have 4 more up days than down. We have about 15 up days 'in the bank' so at some point expect a run of 10 or more consecutive up days. This is just for fun,but I like using it as a trading aid.
 
The FTSE, Monday 15th May 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 5912, down 129pts [2.15%].
Range: 6042 - 5912.

Last 5 TD: down 2.95%.
OTM: -1.79%.

Position: down from low to well under par.

Friday's DOW:
11381, down 119pts [1.04%].

Last 5 TD: down 1.70%.
OTM: 0.15%

Position: moved down neutral to low.

Friday's S&P 500
1291.24 down 14.68 [1.12%].

Last 5 TD: down 2.62%.
OTM: -1.46%.

Position: under par.

News items of note:

Worth a read: Banks face vast losses in copper mayhem
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/05/13/cncopp13.xml

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays were too distorted. Monday's favour a further drop.

The PoM System: +1.65, interpretation: favours the rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
None.
Busy week ahead for both the UK and American markets.

Economic Data:
09:30 UK ODPM House Prices.

Areas to watch: Oil, copper and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the bears dominated the market right up to the closing bell on Friday, and there's still a possibility that we'll have an additional slide Monday if the copper prices drop; charts predicts a drop, but the PoM favours the rise; no company results and ED, although expected to be positive, is tame.

Early gut feeling: still a strong possibility of a further fall.

Will I bet? Too early to tell.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
the FTSE doing well this morning three days trading to erase 10 weeks of gains
 
downbytheriver7 said:
glad i didnt put my long on now - but i am now - losing on the NDX long but GOLD down big also so not tooooo bad.
Click to expand...

I too came in too early on the FTSE, but covered my loss with a bineray.

I'm not overy confident with the Americans markets minor reversal today and will be looking for additional signs before adding to my small long.

I believe copper prices will drop further, and thus, the miners will continue to pull the FTSE south. lets see.

UK
 
The FTSE, Tuesday 16th May 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 5839, down 72pts [1.23%]
Range: 5912 - 5755.

From a slump of over 150pts it did well to rebound.

Last 5 TD: down 3.78%.
OTM: -3.02%.

Position: well under par.

Friday's DOW:
11428, up 47pts [0.42%].

Last 5 TD: down 1.34%.
OTM: 0.57%

Position: moved from low to neutral.

Friday's S&P 500
1294.5 up 3.26 [0.25%].

Last 5 TD: down 2.29%.
OTM: -1.21%.

Position: moved from under par to low.

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's favoured a further drop. Tuesday's a rise.

The PoM System: 4.25 interpretation: favours the rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
BAA
Compass
Enterprise Inns
Royal Dutch Shell

Economic Data:
UK RICS Housing market survey
UK CPI

Areas to watch: Oil, copper and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: have the bears finished yet? To a degree, I believe so. The American markets switched from falling to rising, but not convincingly; the FTSE is still quite jittery towards the miners which remain a tad top heavy; charts and PoM predict a rise; companies reporting should be positive and ED is moderate. Expect the FTSE to open up 5-10pts.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? Will be looking for positive signs of a reversal.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
The FTSE, Wednesday 17th May 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 5853, up 12pts [0.21%]
Range: 5883 - 5853.

Last 5 TD: down 4.21%.
OTM: -2.81%.

Position: well under par.

Tuesday's DOW:
11419, down 8pts [0.08%].

Last 5 TD: down 1.89%.
OTM: 0.49%

Position: neutral.

Tuesday's S&P 500
1292.07 down 2.43 [0.19%].

Last 5 TD: down 2.51%.
OTM: -1.40%.

Position: low.

News items of note:

None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's stated a rise. Wednesday's are not clear, but still favour a minor rise.

The PoM System: 0.75, interpretation: favours a weak rise.

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Glaxosmithkline
J Sainsbury
Next [the one to watch]

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Bank of England minutes
09:30 UK Unemployment Apr
09:30 UK Average Earnings
Areas to watch: Oil, copper and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the rise in copper prices failed to lift the miners today which in turn held the FTSE in check, and whether this will change tomorrow is difficult to determine as the miners are still top heavy, so, without the miners support, don't expect giant leaps tomorrow; the American markets are hesitant and as such can drop a touch further; expect the FTSE to open up at evens; charts are not clear but like the PoM they favour a weak rise; company results and the ED will most likely determine the FTSE's early morning direction.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? The market wants to rise but a number of sectors are holding it back. Will be considering a binary after the early morning results.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Morris said:
Are we setting up for the mother of all short squeezes ?
Click to expand...

I think so.. I am buying longs across the NDX, FTSE and DOW. Looks like capitulation day is here- 5/6 days down in row most of about 5% plus....way over negative and bearish...
 
downbytheriver7 said:
I think so.. I am buying longs across the NDX, FTSE and DOW. Looks like capitulation day is here- 5/6 days down in row most of about 5% plus....way over negative and bearish...
Click to expand...

Also interestingly enough the NDX is outperfom the DOW...so far...
 
Ill buy the Dow at 255 and sit on my hands till then

the FTSE ive already bought again
 
currently 75 points down but should get an exit before end of play Friday
 
managed 10point profit on footsie long this morning. thought it would go up this pm. luckily i was out of market due to commitments. gone long at 5675 . 20 point stop loss.
 
The FTSE, Thursday 18th May 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 5675, down 170pts [2.92%]
Range: 5871 - 5675.

Last 5 TD: down 6.89%.
OTM: -5.85%.

Way under par for the time period. However, put your charts on the shelf and close down your systems, the market is abnormaly nervous, and nervous markets behave abnormaly.

Friday's DOW:
11205, down 214pts [1.88%].

Last 5 TD: down 3.79%.
OTM: -1.39%

Friday's S&P 500
1270.31 down 21.76 [1.68%].

Last 5 TD: down 4.02%.
OTM: -3.08%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's were not clear, but favoured a minor rise. Thursday's indicate a further early morning drop.

The PoM System: 0.00, interpretation: the 4th zero count this year, and as such, recommends a 'No bet.'

The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.

Companies reporting:
Boots
BT
Cadbury Schwepps
Legal & General
National Grid
Prudential
Rentokil Initial
Sabmiller
William Hill

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Retail Sales

Areas to watch: copper and miners.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the miners opened up positive early Wednesday, copper prices opened down strong, and it all went south thereafter when the America markets continued their southern dash. And I believe its not all over yet. Charts favour a futher drop and the PoM has no strong indication eitherway; company results and ED won't play an important role tomorrow unless negitive; the FTSE will continue to be dominated by the American markets until stability has been restored.

Early gut feeling: early morning dip and then...

Will I bet? Put your billionaires hat on and ask yourself the question, 'if the FTSE was a company would I buy it tomorrow?' My answer is simple, in todays uncertainty, no! Will be sitting on the fence tomorrow.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
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