downbytheriver7
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Steve_40 said:
Ouuch - hangin on for now but this weeks gains have been eroded. 6020 looks next support and then 6000.
downbytheriver7
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downbytheriver7 said:
Umm we have support at the 30 day moving average (about here) and then the 50 day moving average a bit lower. If these go it will all look a bit poor. Still expecting this to be just a pullback/dip and think we get one more move up before the summer. Although the NDX is looking a bit dodgy here. Today and tomorrow pivotal for the indices.
downbytheriver7
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"News is hitting that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke says that Fed may pause even if risks to the economy aren't balanced. We are rallying big on that news after the ugly open. Like a lot of other folks I'm scrambling. I've been making a lot of semiconductor-related buys like CYMI MU BTUI BRCM. I'm also looking for a bounce in bios. I think we may finally see that money coming out of commodities and oil and looking for a new home. "
downbytheriver7
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Closed my FTSE long @ 6077 and NDX @ 1709 - back to even and more 
Will re-enter the NDX but doubtful on the FTSE. Good trading all.
Will re-enter the NDX but doubtful on the FTSE. Good trading all.
downbytheriver7
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downbytheriver7 said:Closed my FTSE long @ 6077 and NDX @ 1709 - back to even and more
Will re-enter the NDX but doubtful on the FTSE. Good trading all.
Did re-enter my NDX long at 1700 and out at 1715 - its been a good day! Flat for now, but the FTSE looks a bit hung over - rotation into tech it seems. Looking for more of a dip on the FTSE to go long again 6000-6020.
The FTSE, Friday 28th April 2006
Thursdays:
Close: 6060, down 44pts [0.73%].
Range: 6104 - 6026.
Last 5 TD: down 0.34%.
OTM: up 1.61%.
Thursday's DOW:
11382, up 28pts [0.25%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.35%.
OTM: 2.46%
Thursday's S&P 500
1309.72, up 4.31pts [0.33%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.13%.
OTM: 1.17%.
News items of note:
Worth a read: Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/04/27/uchina27.xml
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday said for the first time the central bank could at some point pause its 22-month interest-rate raising campaign to allow time to divine the economy's path.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's stated a drop. Fridays have no clear indication but do edge towards a further drop.
The PoM System: +1.5, interpretation: favours a moderate rise.
[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]
Companies reporting:
BG
Frends Provident
Royal Bank of Scotland
Economic Data:
10:30 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence.
Busy day for the US, JPN, FRA and GER.
Areas to watch: Oil and miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the miners ripped the FTSE apart when we should have seen a healthy rise, but charts indicate a strong possibilty of a miners rally tomorrow; American markets had a see-saw day finishing on a high, but this did little to inspire the FTSE, charts and data predict a dip tomorrow; FTSE charts are not clear but the PoM predicts a decent rise; company results should be positive and economic data is tame.
Early gut feeling: Neutral.
Will I bet? After yesterdays dire result I should pack my bags and live out the rest of my life as a benidictine monk. Will be watching the miners for a clue before commiting. Still believe the FTSE is under-par. If driven south tomorrow will be looking for a 40+ rise May 2nd.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Thursdays:
Close: 6060, down 44pts [0.73%].
Range: 6104 - 6026.
Last 5 TD: down 0.34%.
OTM: up 1.61%.
Thursday's DOW:
11382, up 28pts [0.25%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.35%.
OTM: 2.46%
Thursday's S&P 500
1309.72, up 4.31pts [0.33%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.13%.
OTM: 1.17%.
News items of note:
Worth a read: Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/04/27/uchina27.xml
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday said for the first time the central bank could at some point pause its 22-month interest-rate raising campaign to allow time to divine the economy's path.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's stated a drop. Fridays have no clear indication but do edge towards a further drop.
The PoM System: +1.5, interpretation: favours a moderate rise.
[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]
Companies reporting:
BG
Frends Provident
Royal Bank of Scotland
Economic Data:
10:30 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence.
Busy day for the US, JPN, FRA and GER.
Areas to watch: Oil and miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the miners ripped the FTSE apart when we should have seen a healthy rise, but charts indicate a strong possibilty of a miners rally tomorrow; American markets had a see-saw day finishing on a high, but this did little to inspire the FTSE, charts and data predict a dip tomorrow; FTSE charts are not clear but the PoM predicts a decent rise; company results should be positive and economic data is tame.
Early gut feeling: Neutral.
Will I bet? After yesterdays dire result I should pack my bags and live out the rest of my life as a benidictine monk. Will be watching the miners for a clue before commiting. Still believe the FTSE is under-par. If driven south tomorrow will be looking for a 40+ rise May 2nd.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
downbytheriver7
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Umm 6030 has been attacked 3 times on the downside in the last 2 days - I think we see 6000 shortly. I am standing aside for now.
downbytheriver7
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some light but interesting reading....
Heres an article/column/snippet from one of my favourite sites today....
"Tapping into the same vein, I have a thousand market topics in my head, but none of them deserves more than a minute of your valuable time. So without further delay, here are my quick takes on everything market-related on this fine April day.
Apple Computer: Its quarterly earnings and outlook were mediocre, but the stock opened four points higher anyway. Honestly, I suspect that Wall Street cheerleaders would find a way to spin the positive on iPod and Mac even if the feds dragged CEO Steve Jobs out in handcuffs.
Crude Oil: It's going to $100 per barrel in the next 12 to 18 months. The real surprise will be when it doesn't stop there, and starts heading for $200 dollars. Unfortunately, it's not a bubble, so put away your history books.
Inflation: Read or watch Jimmy Rogers. He notes that commodity bull markets, once they start, can last for decades. The screaming rally in all types of basic materials began just two years ago and might continue until 2020, and beyond. In the meantime, don't expect cheap interest rates again, ever.
Fed Governors: What they have to say in public rarely counts when they sit down in private and rule the world. So why are the financial media covering every Fed governor speech live these days? We're already suffering from major information overload. It's just bad television.
Tech Rotation: You've got to be kidding, right? There is no great or impending move into tech stocks in 2006. Stop believing in fairy tales.
Market Volatility Index (VIX): Ditch the index. I mean, just rip it out and stop using it entirely. It's obsolete. The markets are more, not less, volatile than they were just a few years ago, but the VIX indicator can't read that because it doesn't understand electronic trading.
Google: The long-term chart looks just fine, after the early-year selloff turned out to be a simple correction. This stock should test the rally high at $475 by the summer and then break out into the stratosphere again before year's end.
China: They're going to rule the world of capitalism some day, and there's absolutely nothing we can do about it. Perhaps if we didn't waste all our resources chasing shadows overseas we would have enough money left to make our system more competitive with the rest of the world. It's game over U.S.A.
Short Selling: Short sales are strictly a stockpicker's market these days, with the vast majority of short positions getting squeezed into oblivion. Of course, they're a lot easier if you're breaking the law and driving down companies using naked shorts. Boy, oh boy, I can't wait until the SEC rips the guts out of this practice.
The Dow Industrials: I still think it's topping out here, despite the continuous flirtation with multiyear highs. The big numbers it struck early in this decade are still holding up as major resistance.
Home Sales: The housing bubble is burst, unless you live where I do, in Phoenix. In that case, it's just begun.
Sentiment Surveys: These closely followed polls are a complete waste of time. It works like this: Private investors get bullish after the market goes up and bearish after the market goes down. Newsletter writers stay bullish forever because they need to sell product, and depressed subscribers cancel subscriptions.
The Consumer: Yes, we care about oil prices, inflation, the war and everything else we're told has already been priced into the market. We're also dumb as dirt when it comes to borrowing money and do extremely stupid things, like buying interest-only mortgages.
General Motors: The stock is holding the lows so far in 2006, and that's very good news. But there's still no valid reason to buy this blue-chip dog, or its weak catalog of motor vehicles.
Iran: The nuclear standoff is real scary and a potential market-mover. But I'm not worried about what the U.S. will do or not do. Instead, we need to pay a lot closer attention to Israel's reaction.
Alternative Energy and Ethanol Stocks: They're overbought because the public loves them, but they're still a major buy and a wave of the future. My favorite picks in the group are Archer Daniels Midland, Evergreen Solar and Pacific Ethanol.
Canslim: I put together a list of the IBD-100 about a year ago, and then forgot about it. Pulling up the list last weekend, I discovered that 80% of the stocks were considerably higher now than at the time they were placed in the list. That's scary-good performance in this confused market.
Gilead Sciences: I made a bad call on the stock in Monday's column. But have you looked at Amylin Pharmaceuticals or Genentech, which were also mentioned? Both are dropping like rocks, just as expected. You win some, you lose some. That's the way it works.
Thanks for tuning in. Good night, and good luck."
Heres an article/column/snippet from one of my favourite sites today....
"Tapping into the same vein, I have a thousand market topics in my head, but none of them deserves more than a minute of your valuable time. So without further delay, here are my quick takes on everything market-related on this fine April day.
Apple Computer: Its quarterly earnings and outlook were mediocre, but the stock opened four points higher anyway. Honestly, I suspect that Wall Street cheerleaders would find a way to spin the positive on iPod and Mac even if the feds dragged CEO Steve Jobs out in handcuffs.
Crude Oil: It's going to $100 per barrel in the next 12 to 18 months. The real surprise will be when it doesn't stop there, and starts heading for $200 dollars. Unfortunately, it's not a bubble, so put away your history books.
Inflation: Read or watch Jimmy Rogers. He notes that commodity bull markets, once they start, can last for decades. The screaming rally in all types of basic materials began just two years ago and might continue until 2020, and beyond. In the meantime, don't expect cheap interest rates again, ever.
Fed Governors: What they have to say in public rarely counts when they sit down in private and rule the world. So why are the financial media covering every Fed governor speech live these days? We're already suffering from major information overload. It's just bad television.
Tech Rotation: You've got to be kidding, right? There is no great or impending move into tech stocks in 2006. Stop believing in fairy tales.
Market Volatility Index (VIX): Ditch the index. I mean, just rip it out and stop using it entirely. It's obsolete. The markets are more, not less, volatile than they were just a few years ago, but the VIX indicator can't read that because it doesn't understand electronic trading.
Google: The long-term chart looks just fine, after the early-year selloff turned out to be a simple correction. This stock should test the rally high at $475 by the summer and then break out into the stratosphere again before year's end.
China: They're going to rule the world of capitalism some day, and there's absolutely nothing we can do about it. Perhaps if we didn't waste all our resources chasing shadows overseas we would have enough money left to make our system more competitive with the rest of the world. It's game over U.S.A.
Short Selling: Short sales are strictly a stockpicker's market these days, with the vast majority of short positions getting squeezed into oblivion. Of course, they're a lot easier if you're breaking the law and driving down companies using naked shorts. Boy, oh boy, I can't wait until the SEC rips the guts out of this practice.
The Dow Industrials: I still think it's topping out here, despite the continuous flirtation with multiyear highs. The big numbers it struck early in this decade are still holding up as major resistance.
Home Sales: The housing bubble is burst, unless you live where I do, in Phoenix. In that case, it's just begun.
Sentiment Surveys: These closely followed polls are a complete waste of time. It works like this: Private investors get bullish after the market goes up and bearish after the market goes down. Newsletter writers stay bullish forever because they need to sell product, and depressed subscribers cancel subscriptions.
The Consumer: Yes, we care about oil prices, inflation, the war and everything else we're told has already been priced into the market. We're also dumb as dirt when it comes to borrowing money and do extremely stupid things, like buying interest-only mortgages.
General Motors: The stock is holding the lows so far in 2006, and that's very good news. But there's still no valid reason to buy this blue-chip dog, or its weak catalog of motor vehicles.
Iran: The nuclear standoff is real scary and a potential market-mover. But I'm not worried about what the U.S. will do or not do. Instead, we need to pay a lot closer attention to Israel's reaction.
Alternative Energy and Ethanol Stocks: They're overbought because the public loves them, but they're still a major buy and a wave of the future. My favorite picks in the group are Archer Daniels Midland, Evergreen Solar and Pacific Ethanol.
Canslim: I put together a list of the IBD-100 about a year ago, and then forgot about it. Pulling up the list last weekend, I discovered that 80% of the stocks were considerably higher now than at the time they were placed in the list. That's scary-good performance in this confused market.
Gilead Sciences: I made a bad call on the stock in Monday's column. But have you looked at Amylin Pharmaceuticals or Genentech, which were also mentioned? Both are dropping like rocks, just as expected. You win some, you lose some. That's the way it works.
Thanks for tuning in. Good night, and good luck."
downbytheriver7
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Trying a bank holiday w/e long @ 6030 (smaller position than normal) - also picked at a NDX long - everyone else quiet?
When I scalp I tend to max out the margin, otherwise not really worth doing for what's just a few points here and there. Friday was just the ideal scalping day, yo-yo'ing along as it did.
I did read Downbytheriver's post about SAR a few weeks ago. It sounded very interesting but I couldn't get my head around it without a chart to look at. Do you know of a site where you can test out the software for free?
I use mainly Fibs on each swing and take breaks of 50% or 61.8% as my cue as to whether it'll keep going or it's time to reverse. That works pretty well. I also have a few MACDs in play just to get a feel for where the price action is relative to those.
Another good way in a really volatile market is to use the low/high 5 or 6 bars back (on a 1 min chart) as your trailing stop. But that works better on the US indices because they swing wider than the FTSE.
I did read Downbytheriver's post about SAR a few weeks ago. It sounded very interesting but I couldn't get my head around it without a chart to look at. Do you know of a site where you can test out the software for free?
I use mainly Fibs on each swing and take breaks of 50% or 61.8% as my cue as to whether it'll keep going or it's time to reverse. That works pretty well. I also have a few MACDs in play just to get a feel for where the price action is relative to those.
Another good way in a really volatile market is to use the low/high 5 or 6 bars back (on a 1 min chart) as your trailing stop. But that works better on the US indices because they swing wider than the FTSE.
Racer
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You wouldn't get the UK gov doing this to improve living standards and for the public good would you!
Saudi slashes petrol prices by more than 30 pct
AFX
RIYADH (AFX) - Saudi King Abdullah ordered petrol prices in the oil-rich kingdom slashed by more than 30 pct, according to a copy of the decree carried by the official SPA news agency.
'In order to improve the living standards of citizens and for the public good, we have ordered that the price of one litre of petrol for the consumer be changed to 0.60 riyals (17 cents) instead of 0.90 riyals (24 cents) until 10/12/1427,' the decree said, referring to the last month of the Muslim lunar calendar which would coincide with next January.
The move came as Western consumers of the world's leading oil producer and exporter were facing sharply increased prices at the pumps amid record high crude prices.
Saudi slashes petrol prices by more than 30 pct
AFX
RIYADH (AFX) - Saudi King Abdullah ordered petrol prices in the oil-rich kingdom slashed by more than 30 pct, according to a copy of the decree carried by the official SPA news agency.
'In order to improve the living standards of citizens and for the public good, we have ordered that the price of one litre of petrol for the consumer be changed to 0.60 riyals (17 cents) instead of 0.90 riyals (24 cents) until 10/12/1427,' the decree said, referring to the last month of the Muslim lunar calendar which would coincide with next January.
The move came as Western consumers of the world's leading oil producer and exporter were facing sharply increased prices at the pumps amid record high crude prices.
Hi Kewbridge,
If you're scalping and your not using parabolic Sar [PS] as one of your tools I strongly recommend that you do. As to sites, try ADVFN, Digital Look and the SB company Capital Spreads for charts.
Of course, PS is not solely for scalping, as it's function in regards to the market is its ability to indicate when best to enter or leave.
Good luck.
UK
If you're scalping and your not using parabolic Sar [PS] as one of your tools I strongly recommend that you do. As to sites, try ADVFN, Digital Look and the SB company Capital Spreads for charts.
Of course, PS is not solely for scalping, as it's function in regards to the market is its ability to indicate when best to enter or leave.
Good luck.
UK
Thanx Hero, that's brill. Will try it out tomorrow and see how it works. Looks good for trending markets, less so for sideways ones when taking the US 4 pt spread into account. Better on FTSE with only 2 pts I guess. Definitely looks worth having a go with!
The FTSE, Tuesday 2nd May 2006
Friday's results:
Close: 6023, down 36pts [0.61%].
Range: 6060 - 6023.
Last 5 TD: down 1.79%.
OTM: up 1.00%.
Three warning signals here, 3 and 5 day average, and weekly. Should the FTSE fall tomorrow and hit 5990 expect a decline back to 5940. If it rises, we will most likely see a see-saw week.
Monday's DOW:
11343, down 23pts [0.21%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.07%.
OTM: -0.21%
Monday's S&P 500
1305.19, down 5.42pts [0.41%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.22%.
OTM: -0.41%.
News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. stocks fell on Monday, hurt by worries that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates longer than expected, weighing on financial shares like Dow component American Express Co.
Stocks, which had been higher for much of the day, reversed course sharply just before the end of the trading session as a report on CNBC television revived rate worries.
The business news channel said that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said over the weekend that economic data will dictate the Fed's future action on interest rates.' - I was surprised that the market took so long to react. And I still believe it will drift a tad lower. The question now is, 'how much will it effect the FTSE.'
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays had no clear indication but did edge towards a further drop. Tuesday's have no clear indication.
The PoM System: +4.75, interpretation: favours a rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
None.
Busy week ahead and therefore we may see an early rise Tuesday followed by a drop Wednesday / Thursday. Lets see.
Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI manufacturing
11:00 UK CBI districutive trades report
Areas to watch: Oil. Iran is back in the news.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the American markets turned tail in the last hour of trading and the question on every FTSE traders lips is, how much will it effect the UK markets as its believed that there's more to come; charts have no indication; the PoM result predicts a rise; no company or results and economic data is tame, which will leave the FTSE susceptible to market sentiment and at the moment it favours the bull. In all, it is a difficult day to predict.
Early gut feeling: none.
Will I bet? Favour the Long.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Friday's results:
Close: 6023, down 36pts [0.61%].
Range: 6060 - 6023.
Last 5 TD: down 1.79%.
OTM: up 1.00%.
Three warning signals here, 3 and 5 day average, and weekly. Should the FTSE fall tomorrow and hit 5990 expect a decline back to 5940. If it rises, we will most likely see a see-saw week.
Monday's DOW:
11343, down 23pts [0.21%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.07%.
OTM: -0.21%
Monday's S&P 500
1305.19, down 5.42pts [0.41%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.22%.
OTM: -0.41%.
News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. stocks fell on Monday, hurt by worries that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates longer than expected, weighing on financial shares like Dow component American Express Co.
Stocks, which had been higher for much of the day, reversed course sharply just before the end of the trading session as a report on CNBC television revived rate worries.
The business news channel said that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said over the weekend that economic data will dictate the Fed's future action on interest rates.' - I was surprised that the market took so long to react. And I still believe it will drift a tad lower. The question now is, 'how much will it effect the FTSE.'
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays had no clear indication but did edge towards a further drop. Tuesday's have no clear indication.
The PoM System: +4.75, interpretation: favours a rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
None.
Busy week ahead and therefore we may see an early rise Tuesday followed by a drop Wednesday / Thursday. Lets see.
Economic Data:
09:30 UK PMI manufacturing
11:00 UK CBI districutive trades report
Areas to watch: Oil. Iran is back in the news.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the American markets turned tail in the last hour of trading and the question on every FTSE traders lips is, how much will it effect the UK markets as its believed that there's more to come; charts have no indication; the PoM result predicts a rise; no company or results and economic data is tame, which will leave the FTSE susceptible to market sentiment and at the moment it favours the bull. In all, it is a difficult day to predict.
Early gut feeling: none.
Will I bet? Favour the Long.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Vaco
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nice thread, just discovered it hoping on board for the ride.
my 2 cents
If the ftse doesnt climb back up above its 20ma this week i'm betting on a primary trend reversal,
If you look at the ftse on a longer term basis the primary trend looks like it runs for 3 yearsbefore changing direction and were due a change in direction.
my 2 cents
If the ftse doesnt climb back up above its 20ma this week i'm betting on a primary trend reversal,
If you look at the ftse on a longer term basis the primary trend looks like it runs for 3 yearsbefore changing direction and were due a change in direction.
Windlesham1
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I think it's worth allowing 1% 'wiggle room' against MAs- if you check out ftse it has dropped through the 20 several times but always by less than 1%. Personally I think we'll see a new high in the next 2 weeks as we have yet to take out 6150 and complete a row of 20 Xs 0n stockcharts P&F of ftse.
counter_violent
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Racer said:
Like most things .....it's a double edged sword....one persons better standard of living is another persons pollution.
c v
