TA does/doesn't work thread with a difference.

TheBramble said:
Deserves a fuller response than I initially gave it.

You could trade a system that said: When the price is moving down, go short. Until it isn’t going down any more. When the price is going up, go Long. Until it isn’t going up any more.

That would be technical analysis.

We tend to weave in a bit more than that, all of which is useful one way or another I’m sure, but it’s all based on price and time (and volume where available).

For entries and exits, we generally look for confirmation and something a bit more specific than “when price is moving…” and “until it isn’t..”. Some bods take their need for confirmation, comfort and specificity to extremes. That’s up to them.

But basically, we all need something to push us over the edge into taking that trade. And then, when in it, for getting us out.

I liked the phrase “provide a reason to enter the market”. There has to be one. Even for traders that don’t use TA. Or coins. Or FA. For most (on this site I’m guessing anyway) TA performs that function.

I also like the phrase “illusional boardering on delusional”(sic). It is. It all is. Capturing helpless ticks and imprisoning them in H1 timeframes is about as arbitrary as it gets. It doesn’t ‘mean’ anything. It’s just an abstraction, a convenience. "I’ll trade the 5 min today as I want some action. Tomorrow I’m playing golf so I’ll switch the Hourly”. (I don’t do either of these but by way of example). We encapsulate the market action in abstract packets of time and assign meaning to them. Where did it start that period of time and end? How high and low did it go in that period of time? When in reality, it’s all just a constant stream of ticks. It doesn’t get more illusional or delusional than that.

The key is price action and what you do with it. Everything else is an abstraction, a derivative of that price action. Useful in many cases, but none the less, an abstraction.
Click to expand...

Some excellent points there.
 
I check 5 min candlestick naked chart for cable then i take a position , sometimes with the move sometimes agianst i dont know if this is TA or gut feeling but it works for me , sometimes i look at the price then i take position without checking the charts , sometimes i add to losers sometimes i add to winners but i dont risk that much . period .
 
Last edited:
Pazienza said:
That's exactly right. Decide what you want, and the time frame in which you want it. Then force the market to give it to you.

That's the way that all successful traders do it.
Click to expand...


True mate. Being aggressive around certain price levels is one way of going about the business.
 
Dr. S. Sivaraman, a professor in statistics who does vids over at fxstreet, says he found no statistical significance in any indicator based system [i haven't checked myself] which is why he does not even use charts now but the quote page and a system of money management. Others say there is a marginal significance in some patterns etc.

given how people make big money making music, writing books, setting up websites etc [small stoploss for potential unlimited profit where even one hit can set them up for life] one may even ask why one would do chart betting for marginal significance anyway unless it was in big size where marginal moves can make a big difference?

does ta 'work'? has anyone got a model that predicts price? if not then its a bet on the unknown. and if betting then money management is king? even then there is no guarantee?

if order flow underpins price moves then who has that information? how much would one pay to know, say, that there were massive buy orders at a certain price? without that knowledge its just a guessing game. some are better or luckier at guessing? is there a science to guessing? if there is what is proper to it and what is not?
 
oiltanker said:
given how people make big money making music, writing books, setting up websites etc [small stoploss for potential unlimited profit where even one hit can set them up for life] one may even ask why one would do chart betting for marginal significance anyway unless it was in big size where marginal moves can make a big difference?
Click to expand...

Even the big music stars or website authors started off by using lots of different, basic techniques and from copying other people. Someone probably also told them that their style was useless at the start and had been done before. Most just got lucky.

TA is a good learning tool and useful to visualise the past. Using it to trade 100% with no other information is fatal.

TA has flaws that the rest of the trading system needs to make up for. The biggest killer in trading is a lack of discipline. If a chart with all of its fancy TA lines helps to maintain the discipline then TA does work.
 
Last edited:
shadowninja said:
Well, then I've answered. :D

This is all I do: Take a daily chart. Draw one TL. Watch it. The likes of bbmac and wallstreet1928 clearly use more complicated means and it works for them... scares the ****e out of me, though. Same goes for the posters on the eurusd thread on ff.com. Some keep it simple, many have crazy spiderwebs going on.

I quite like this guy's videos:
Click to expand...

Isnt he a con man?
 
sinimini said:
Isnt he a con man?
Click to expand...
Not sure, but Danny Devito played a conman in the film 'Matilda', and Danny Devito provides the voice for Oscar if you close your eyes and listen.
Oscar simply pretends to talk and moves his lips whilst Danny Devito commentates on the vids from behind the camera...
 
redart said:
Not sure, but Danny Devito played a conman in the film 'Matilda', and Danny Devito provides the voice for Oscar if you close your eyes and listen.
Oscar simply pretends to talk and moves his lips whilst Danny Devito commentates on the vids from behind the camera...
Click to expand...

I really need to get a life... I actually tried that and you're right!

Someone get me some professional help. lol. I'm 1/2 mental and the other half is unstable.

:LOL:
 
temporarilylight said:
What other information would you suggest from a daytrading perpective, out of interest?
Click to expand...

I "try to" use Level 2 and Time and Sales information for trading US stocks as well as TA and price action. Its not a recommendation but a potential approach that many seem to use to varying levels of success.

I am a beginner so cannot judge with any confidence just yet.
 
My experience of "TA does not work" quite often is that it works in hindsight, or, "it would have worked if...."

A lot of disparaging remarks have been made about hindsight but it proves to me that it would have worked if it had not been for me. Therefore, the fault lies with me. Either I am scared of letting a loss get out of hand, or I'm frightened of losing a profit.

TA is the messenger. We should not kill it because of our own mental blocks. We should analyse our own actions in a situation that would have worked if it had not been for our own decisions.
 
Hi Split
This is what I was getting at when I said post charts of when it didn't work and we can discuss why it didn't.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

R
Does System Trading work ?
Replies
10
Views
3K
BSD
BSD
S
TA and Forward contracts?
Replies
2
Views
2K
shadowninja
shadowninja
M
IB traders..
Replies
0
Views
1K
momothebored
M
V
TA Doesnt work!
2
Replies
27
Views
4K
dick_dastardly
D
A
New Trader: What is the point of TA
2
Replies
20
Views
5K
Charlton
C
Top