TA does/doesn't work thread with a difference.

[scose-no-doubt]

Thanks for the input BB.
Not sure why people have to get so quasi-religious when it comes to differing opinions on how to approach the market tbh.

Do you find your hit rate is higher or lower on the time frames > 1 week?

 

[bbmac]

Do you find your hit rate is higher or lower on the time frames > 1 week?

I have no idea as never traded them, I work on the 1/5/30min combo with market entries being effected almost exclusively on 15min and below (1min - 75%, 5min - 20%, 15min - 5%)

G/L

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Oh ok misread your earlier post.

Any idea how long you hold your average trade?

 

[bbmac]

Oh ok misread your earlier post.

Any idea how long you hold your average trade?

I don't have any empirical stats on that. I do have an exit/trade target and management methodology. The higher the t/f used for entry generally the longer the hold. but this is a very general comment. as a 1min set-up could be supported by a 5min and 30min set-up that have not yet been validated by a pa trigger and if 5min then 30min candles close validating the supporting set-ups on their own t/f's it gives a chance to add in and/or move stop on the 1min entry etc....

G/L

 

[scose-no-doubt]

But it's all intra-day?

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

Literally just read this on the FT Alphaville Market Live blog, made me smile as I'd just come from reading this thread:

TT outlaw..i was always taken by New York Fed study which said technical analysis does not really work except in forex markets - and that was because no-one else had a clue what moved currencies, so everyone basically relied on the candlesticks etc



(TT is one of the FT journos).

 

[bbmac]

But it's all intra-day?

Yes, it is very rare that I hold overnight but if I do it is because stop is well at b/e or better and there is a good opa trend extending on 1hr/4hr etc....but it is rare...I prefer to be able to sleep well.

G/L

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Does anyone use TA for trades over a longer TF?

 

[coopster]

doese support and resistance count as TA?

What are we actually defining as TA?

I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that candle patterns are very hit and miss. Eg. The infamous pin bar. Looking back at a 1 or 3 minute chart of any trading vehicle will show countless failures and successes of the same pattern. All other conditions being comparable.

 

[shadowninja]

Maybe then we could discuss how and why we think it didny

I am not sure what you hope to get out of this but I'll try to answer, anyway. I only use TLs on daily charts. As I understand things, TLs generally fail when the fundamentals (news, data, announcements) are counter to the current trend and the price will just smash through. So what I prefer to do is to see how the price reacts with a TL rather than just blindly putting orders at the TL.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I'm just wanting to discuss approach is all. Not trying to prove or disprove anything.

 

[Black Swan]

Does anyone use TA for trades over a longer TF?

Yep, although I have two very different stats;

when swing and or position trading FX (2hr-daily TFs) I use a 'pavlov's dog' indicator based TA system exclusively, alert sounds I do something...what else is there if you're gonna swing several pairs? And to make swinging FX work (as a wage) you have to trade several pairs imho.

Lower than that, typically if 'playing off' half hour - 1hr TFs (for greed and boredom purposes) I mainly use S&P, daily pivot, MAs (50 and 200ema), big round numbers, daily highs/lows with HA..

 

[shadowninja]

I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that candle patterns are very hit and miss. Eg. The infamous pin bar. Looking back at a 1 or 3 minute chart of any trading vehicle will show countless failures and successes of the same pattern. All other conditions being comparable.

You've arrived at the wrong conclusion. Your conclusion should be that candlestick patterns are no good for shorter timeframes and fail very quickly. That's why I stick to daily charts. I know some people who trade patterns on the hourlies and M15 but that's too much like hard work for me.

 

[shadowninja]

I'm just wanting to discuss approach is all. Not trying to prove or disprove anything.

Well, then I've answered.

This is all I do: Take a daily chart. Draw one TL. Watch it. The likes of bbmac and wallstreet1928 clearly use more complicated means and it works for them... scares the ****e out of me, though. Same goes for the posters on the eurusd thread on ff.com. Some keep it simple, many have crazy spiderwebs going on.

I quite like this guy's videos:

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Yep, although I have two very different stats;

when swing and or position trading FX (2hr-daily TFs) I use a 'pavlov's dog' indicator based TA system exclusively, alert sounds I do something...what else is there if you're gonna swing several pairs? And to make swinging FX work (as a wage) you have to trade several pairs imho.

Lower than that, typically if 'playing off' half hour - 1hr TFs (for greed and boredom purposes) I mainly use S&P, daily pivot, MAs (50 and 200ema), big round numbers, daily highs/lows with HA..

You ever tried dailies outside of forex?

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Well, then I've answered.

This is all I do: Take a daily chart. Draw one TL. Watch it. The likes of bbmac and wallstreet1928 clearly use more complicated means and it works for them... scares the ****e out of me, though. Same goes for the posters on the eurusd thread on ff.com. Some keep it simple, many have crazy spiderwebs going on.

You forex only too?

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Effin hell I haven't seen him since Potential set ups. Forgot all about him.

 

[shadowninja]

You forex only too?

EURUSD, AUDUSD and Gold. Am looking at wheat and natural gas. I need to keep studying them to get a feel for its movements. Each have their own characteristics.

 

[DashRiprock]

Well, then I've answered.

This is all I do: Take a daily chart. Draw one TL. Watch it. The likes of bbmac and wallstreet1928 clearly use more complicated means and it works for them... scares the ****e out of me, though. Same goes for the posters on the eurusd thread on ff.com. Some keep it simple, many have crazy spiderwebs going on.

i think candlesticks are only good for timeframes when the close means something structural in the market. so like stocks for example where there is a daily session from 9:30 till 4:00, use daily candles. intra day opens and closes dont mean much imo.

 

[shadowninja]

Effin hell I haven't seen him since Potential set ups. Forgot all about him.

Referring to Oscar? He's the only guy I pay attention to. The others, well, I might watch them if I get insomnia...