swingin' the ftse

[2468steve]

Hi guys,
yesterdays fall if on light volume is not necessarily good news for the bulls.....just means that when increasing volume does come in the bears will smash that level....much better to see large volume into lows and then a retest of those lows and a close back inside the range,on lighter volume...as per Feb...the close back inside the range is crucial to confirm a successful retest

If you have a low with large volume and the following days close is just 1 point below on lighter volume that suggests a failed retest and you can still go lower even though you may have significantly less volume....

the same applies to highs,which is why we see these big dumps down.....since Feb all the significant volume has been accompanied by down days....we've been going up on lighter volume,which is sucking in new money....but ultimately the force is down...

anyone who bought since March has watched 5 months profits wiped out in as many days

 

[2468steve]

blimey that was quick .......whilst writing previous post FTSE broken lower........shows the problem with light volume at lows....6200 is major uptrend...for confirmation you would now want to see a close today above yesterdays low on lighter volume

 

[tune]

Volume afficionados will have noted the very low volume yesterday

Is that last volume bar right? Tiny considering the move. Amazing if so.

tune

 

[brutusdog]

Hi guys,
yesterdays fall if on light volume is not necessarily good news for the bulls.....just means that when increasing volume does come in the bears will smash that level....much better to see large volume into lows and then a retest of those lows and a close back inside the range,on lighter volume...as per Feb...the close back inside the range is crucial to confirm a successful retest

If you have a low with large volume and the following days close is just 1 point below on lighter volume that suggests a failed retest and you can still go lower even though you may have significantly less volume....

the same applies to highs,which is why we see these big dumps down.....since Feb all the significant volume has been accompanied by down days....we've been going up on lighter volume,which is sucking in new money....but ultimately the force is down...

anyone who bought since March has watched 5 months profits wiped out in as many days

blimey that was quick .......whilst writing previous post FTSE broken lower........shows the problem with light volume at lows....6200 is major uptrend...for confirmation you would now want to see a close today above yesterdays low on lighter volume

great explanation steve,

feel the force....as you put in another of the threads the other day where volume go's the market will follow...

 

[barjon]

steve

thanks, i knew the lifeboat would arrive :cheesy:

tune

dunno - sharescope lists 860m against 50 day average of 1.85b, but i haven't checked it elsewhere.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

Is that last volume bar right? Tiny considering the move. Amazing if so.

tune

tune

looks like you were right, tune, tonights update corrected it to 2.58b.

good job i don't use volume

cheers

jon

 

[timsk]

The P&F Chart has Something to Say . . .

Yet again, the P&F chart is hinting at interesting times ahead. It gave a clear signal of the impending breach of key support at 6575 (horizontal thick red line). True to say that the scale of the subsequent fall came as quite a shock. That said, any longs heeding the P&F signals would have been out near the top and any shorts would have been laughing all the way to the bank.

So, what does the chart hint at now? Well, since the waterfall ending on 30/07/07 there have been 3 bull rallies. The first one was reasonably gutsy, but it was neuralised by the subsequent response from the bears (the column of red 'O's starting with number 8). The pressure was back on the bears to breach the previous low at 6200. They failed. This offered some signs of encouragement to the bulls. However, their response was not good, failing to match - let alone breach - their earlier rally high at 6350. At this point, the downward slide looked set to resume. Whilst the bears did manage to breach the triple bottom at 6200 (horizontal thick pink line), the subsequent sell signal proved to be a false one. False sell signals can often prelude strong bull moves (but not always :cheesy: ). The bulls have matched their earlier effort to create a double top at 6300 (horizontal thick pale bloo line) which is a good start. Importantly, they have also managed to breach the high of the previous column of red 'O's at 6275. The chart is now officially bullish. That's worth repeating - the overall trend may be down, but the current state of the chart is bullish!

The next column of red 'O's will - probably - be the one to determine the course of the index throughout the rest of August and into September. If the low at 6175 holds along with the newly created bullish support line and there's a 3 box reversal in favour of the bulls, then this would be an opportunity for the aggressive swing trader to go long. The obvious flip side to this coin is that if the bulls can't improve on the 3 rally highs printed to date and the 6175 low is breached, the chart will become very bearish in a confirmed downtrend. And that's the sort of combo guaranteed to see a lot of bulls lose a lot of sleep.
Tim.

 

[barjon]

Interesting perspective, Tim.

I haven't added anything as yet since with all the vigorous up (ding), down (dong) going on we haven't got near a 3 bar correction since the low(s).

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

Ah, the bold and fearless got burned this time whilst the doubters pat themselves on their backs for their good sense.

Today's action has seen a breach of the last substantive swinglow (6496) which signals a potential trend change to down. The aggressive will already be short - they don't want to miss a precipitate fall - but the more cautious will be awaiting some confirmation of the break and the first three bar reaction.

good trading

jon

Thought I'd better update

You will see from the white circled action that no clear three bar reaction occured although the end result is that 6406 must be regarded as a swing high. The more cautious are still on the sidelines in the absence of a three bar reaction .

The aggressive shorts (who were in around 6495) may still have something left on the table, although near 300 points in three days would have been a tempting profit to bank.

6000 is a key support level and will confirm a change in the long term trend if it goes.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

Everything comes to he who waits we've now got our first potential three bar correction. Assuming no new newer high in this correction we've got a potential short to look for if 6115 goes.

Picking up from my last post: 6000 did go very briefly and we'll have to wait and see if this was enough to turn confirm the long term trend change to down.

I would think most of the aggressive shorts (who were in around 6495) covered the remainder of their positions after or during the bounce back through 6000. For fib afficionados we are now at around a 62% retracement from the last (messy) swing high (dotted red line) and around 38% from the July highs, mmm.

good trading

jon

 

[firewalker99]

Everything comes to he who waits we've now got our first potential three bar correction. Assuming no new newer high in this correction we've got a potential short to look for if 6115 goes.

Picking up from my last post: 6000 did go very briefly and we'll have to wait and see if this was enough to turn confirm the long term trend change to down.

I would think most of the aggressive shorts (who were in around 6495) covered the remainder of their positions after or during the bounce back through 6000. For fib afficionados we are now at around a 62% retracement from the last (messy) swing high (dotted red line) and around 38% from the July highs, mmm.

good trading

jon

not a swingtrader myself, but actually one of signals from yesterday (see the other thread Day Trade the FTSE http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=21088) would've been a very nice trade if one managed to hold on to it until today's close for example

As per your review, I think there might be some more upside but I'm looking for a reversal intraday to head back into shorts. I probably wouldn't wait to see 6115 go, but then again not everybody is as agressive

 

[barjon]

fire

yes, it'd be nice to get a bit more upside (which we're getting today) and a potential swing high with a narrower range (a shooting star on high volume would be attractive ), but if the upside goes beyond 6406 shorts are off the menu.


good trading

jon

 

[Hoggums]

not a swingtrader myself, but actually one of signals from yesterday (see the other thread Day Trade the FTSE http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=21088) would've been a very nice trade if one managed to hold on to it until today's close for example

As per your review, I think there might be some more upside but I'm looking for a reversal intraday to head back into shorts. I probably wouldn't wait to see 6115 go, but then again not everybody is as agressive

I think today is the last high we'll see this week - eithersideways movement tomorrow - or down - let's see what the U.s. does. However I'm scaling in short positions. It will be interesting to see if the new low is a higher low or a lower low.

Personally I think we may test the previous lows but there will be a lot of resistance there - building up a good base for further upward moves.

 

[barjon]

new potential swing high today and straight into a short tomorrow if 6194 goes - might be advisable to watch the action a bit before diving in.

good trading

jon

 

[Splitlink]

I was thinking of holding overnight and becoming a swing trader, but lost my nerve! Who knows what will happen in the morning?

However, I took note of yesterday's posts on this thread and shorted today-

There's something in this "Swing" business, isn't there, apart from Benny Goodman?

Split

 

[firewalker99]

fire

yes, it'd be nice to get a bit more upside (which we're getting today) and a potential swing high with a narrower range (a shooting star on high volume would be attractive ), but if the upside goes beyond 6406 shorts are off the menu.


good trading

jon

actually that "shooting star on high volume" was exactly what I had in mind
you must have been reading my thoughts

 

[firewalker99]

IB raising margins (again)

The margin requirement for FTSE (Z) has gone up from 1313 to 3750!! That's almost three times as much... but apart from a handful of wide range days we haven't seen anything out of the ordinary. Last Friday the daily range was only 50 points, surely nothing spectacular!

So why would they raise margins to even higher levels (even higher than the 4% rule established August 6)?

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/marginRequirements/margin_amer.php?ib_entity=uk
__________________

 

[barjon]

Well, as before, the agressive are short with the cautious still awaiting a close below 6194.

Some of the aggressives will not have entered or will have covered before the close if they are uncomfortable trading before a long holiday weekend and holding over it (would that explain the margin requirement, firewalker?).

I'm off piste for a few days as well, so you'll have to follow the story for yourselves next week.

good trading

jon

 

[laptop1]

I was thinking of holding overnight and becoming a swing trader, but lost my nerve! Who knows what will happen in the morning?

However, I took note of yesterday's posts on this thread and shorted today-

There's something in this "Swing" business, isn't there, apart from Benny Goodman?

Split

If you plan to swing trade,on daily bars and holding overnight, don't buy strength or sell weakness....This is the wrong approach to swing trading in my opinion, I have a separate account for this and do well trading the Dow. I like to buy on down days or sell on up days. its not as straight forward as that, but you get the drift.

 

[Splitlink]

If you plan to swing trade,on daily bars and holding overnight, don't buy strength or sell weakness....This is the wrong approach to swing trading in my opinion, I have a separate account for this and do well trading the Dow. I like to buy on down days or sell on up days. its not as straight forward as that, but you get the drift.

I'm not sure whether I plan to swing trade, or not but, I understand what you mean---I think. I think that swingtraders are very trusting to leave a position on overnight. That does not mean that the swing signal cannot be used to advantage by intraday traders, though.