swingin' the ftse

[Yamin151]

Jon,

Thanks for your patience. I am not taking your word as fact, nor indeed anybodies, but it is nice to be able to pick the brains of someone with much more experience than me. I am trying out many different ways of trading to find the best one for me. Currently reading 'Come into My Trading Room' for example.I am not trading with real money, nor intend to until I feel I have learnt as much as I need, have backtested my methods and am starting to make some money on the fantasy sites. At the moment it is not the money that is important to me, but rather learning a new skill.
Hope you dont mind me using you as a resource,

 

[barjon]

s'ok, yamin - you sound as if you're going about it the right way. Enjoy the journey.

jon

 

[barjon]

ok - looks as though the trend is back to up and the earlier change to down was false. No short signal arrived and those who played it for the bounce or a false signal - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=336585&postcount=34 - are still in and chuckling.

good trading

jon

 

[Yamin151]

Ok, so if I understand right the setup would be perfect now for a swing trade. I have set a buy limit order around 6694 and set my stop at 6643. Reasonable?

 

[timsk]

Ok, so if I understand right the setup would be perfect now for a swing trade. I have set a buy limit order around 6694 and set my stop at 6643. Reasonable?

Hi Yamin,
Very reasonable if your strategy indicates this move, unreasonable if not! Personally, I'm wary of long trades where there's an obvious area of resistance immediately above my entry. The penultimate swing high from early June is at 6686 - just beneath the round number at 6700. Your proposed entry sits slap bang in the middle of this potential zone of resistance. If you're prepared for some possible choppy action at these levels and can weather the storm, you'll be sitting pretty if and when the index moves above 6700 and attracts droves of more conservative traders like me. In the event that you're filled at 6694 but the index fails to move above the RN at 6700, I would want to be out of the trade before my stop is hit at 6643 if I were in your shoes. This is just my view, I'm NOT saying your strategy is wrong or won't work - indeed, I hope it does. Good luck with it!
Tim.

 

[barjon]

yamin

Well there's only 2 lower lows so far (and then only if you count a virtually equal low as two) so need another for the three bar approach. Might get it too after the dow today

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

now we've got three bars and a potential swing low with a prospective long entry if 6632 goes.

gap afficionados will be intrigued that the low today filled the gap and bounce from there.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

mmm, this reaction's got a little deep, but let's stick with simplicity. New potential swing low today and long entry if 6592 goes.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

Well, ftse reached 6593.5 today (very, very briefly) but not many bar the ultra-aggressive will have entered longs with such a minimal break for so short a time. The cautious still await a close above 6592.

Maybe tomorrow will see something more convincing

good trading

jon

 

[shortorlong]

Barjon

some are pretty bearish over on the Dow thread .. but you are looking for a swing up on the FTSE .. but maybe not now?

by the way where do you get your chart with volume info? there is no volume data on ADVFN, and none with CMC or capitalspreads .. this is a bit of a handicap I think

cheers,
shortorlong

 

[barjon]

Sorry not to have been paying attention, but there's some horrible family business that's keeping me away from trading and T2W. Just popped in to update this thread although anyone who is interested will need to take it from here since I won't be around.

Well, it looks like we've got our swing low and those who are happy to enter after a gap opening will be in at around 6560. Others who wait for a close above swinglow high and those who wait for an opportunity after a gap will also be in now at around 6542.

That second group may well have already taken some off the table (50 points or so) and lifted stop to breakeven. Initial stoploss was 6494 but many will already have it at around 6540 now.

good trading

jon

 

[timsk]

Sorry not to have been paying attention, but there's some horrible family business that's keeping me away from trading and T2W.

Sorry to hear this Jon - hope it's getting better.

There are interesting developments this week on the P&F chart - all distinctly bearish. The double top formed from June's high and this month's recent high on Friday 13th is the first sign of a possible shift in market sentiment. So, no higher swing high and a clear point of resistance at 6750. Of immediate concern to the bulls is that the index is a mere 10 points off forming a bearish triple bottom at 6575 - a breach of which would generate a strong P&F sell signal. If this transpires and a new column of red 'O's is created, it will mean that the last column of bloo 'X's comprised the minimum necessary of just 3 'X's. (The chart is a 3 box reversal chart). The number of occasions that this occurs in the context of an uptrend are few and far between. For a new column of red 'O's to form which also comprises the minimum necessary of just 3 on the back of the column of 3 bloo crosses is very rare. Just to clarify, a column of 3 bloo 'X's followed by a column of 3 red 'O's is most unusual. The last time this happened was in May last year. In the event that this scenario plays out, the subsequent P&F buy signal at 6675 would be a very strong one indeed. However, IMO this is unlikely to happen. As it is, my money is on a triple bottom forming at 6575 and subsequent breach of same. This would also take out the rising bloo bullish support line. The next obvious area of support is some 75 points lower at 6500. Next week promises to be interesting and, potentially, very fruitful for the shorts and pretty miserable for the longs.
Tim.

 

[barjon]

Well I'm back (almost) so where have we got to.

The long entry proved profitable, it seems, with over 200 points in it despite the heavy reaction on the way. I guess most will have collected a goodly chunk of that whatever their exit strategies.

It's a worry that the price didn't go to convincing new highs and that will have put many off trading the second swinglow marked (particularly since it took out the earlier steep two bar reaction). The bold and fearless will be in, however, at around 6634 and be resting a little underwater at the moment.

The uptrend in the weekly still looks pretty good.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

Ah, the bold and fearless got burned this time whilst the doubters pat themselves on their backs for their good sense.

Today's action has seen a breach of the last substantive swinglow (6496) which signals a potential trend change to down. The aggressive will already be short - they don't want to miss a precipitate fall - but the more cautious will be awaiting some confirmation of the break and the first three bar reaction.

good trading

jon

 

[Hook Shot]

You cruel cruel man....

 

[brutusdog]

You cruel cruel man....

Hi barjon, just found this thread and been going over the posts, great thread very informative. i have the ftse now sitting right on the weekly trend line will be interesting to see how it reacts from here.

also with a triangle broken down in the daily chart which by my thinking has reached its target so time to wait and see if its a buy opp or the start of a new trend?

cheers

b.d

 

[barjon]

................ The aggressive will already be short - they don't want to miss a precipitate fall - but the more cautious will be awaiting some confirmation of the break and the first three bar reaction...............

good trading

jon

Ooof - and that's what the aggressive were looking for.

Volume afficionados will have noted the very low volume yesterday - not many buyers about despite the mark down.

good trading

jon

 

[Splitlink]

Ooof - and that's what the aggressive were looking for.

Volume afficionados will have noted the very low volume yesterday - not many buyers about despite the mark down.

good trading

jon

Ah! Volume. Still trying to get to the bottom of it and I ain't getting any younger!

Now, your point about yesterday's sell off and low volume so...... No buyers.

What do you think of that sell off on Feb 27th with heavy volume? More selling to come?

Well there were two more days but it seems to me that it's still a guess at the time and only becomes clear when its too late.

Split

 

[barjon]

hi, split

i'm really in the same head scratching volume boat as you - maybe an expert will come along to help us out.

the fall on low volume seems to me negative in that few buyers are willing to put their hats in the ring and sellers are needing offer down markedly to winkle them (the buyers) out.

that seems different to the february scenario (and i have condensed to three days for each candle which makes it clearer) where the high volume indicated plenty of buyers which looked positive IF (a big one as always) the selling was a "panic squall".

good trading

jon

edit: sorry, the volume is not matched up precisely to the candles but it gives the point i hope

 

[barjon]

this is better