Swingin' the ftse 2010

[barjon]

mmm, dow down a couple of hundred after ftse close - hope no brave soul is holding long over the week-end.

ftse closed at 5534 on Friday 8th Jan when dow was standing at 10580. At todays close of 5303 dow was standing at 10375. So, in two weeks ftse is down 231 against dow's 205 - that's horribly weak and ftse should be about 130 higher given its normal 1 point for 2 against the dow.

With dow closing at 10173 ( -202 from ftse close) that sure doesn't bode well for Monday. Watch for some ftse strength though, if it opens and holds less than 100 down (assuming no change in proxy dow level) then it might be anxious to rise if there's a bounce.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

Technically, the swingtrend has changed to down, although the weekly trend line remains intact (just).

The bold will be looking for shorts if they are not already short on the break. The more cautious will be awaiting more convincing evidence of a true break before they change focus to short.

good trading

jon

 

[tomorton]

Thanks Jon. I have 2 lingering longs on stocks, looking to close these asap. Waiting for clarification before new positions.

 

[tomorton]

Recent lack of attention - I should have noted that the Dow and S&P both turned to downward swingtrends together on 22/01: its more than bold to be long on the FTSE or its members when the US is turning negative.

 

[datav]

seems like a good place to go long here. I'd expect to see the FTSE make around 5288 today. May take a bit of back 'n forth around yesterday's high though. You can draw a trend line under this action and above to show the channel. This is the kind of chart you see in all the text books, and always think, I bet they had to search for a while to find that one!

 

[fleetwood]

Personally I think it will bounce back up again maybe forming a double top. Then maybe we shall see a fall

 

[tomorton]

I'm opening shorts tomorrow if FTSE makes today a swing high. Recent price action does not show classic three-day move with higher bars from 28/01 but I am regarding that as swing low. Longer-term trend remains up of course so this pattern may not complete, in which case I shall re-set my short targets for Friday.

 

[tomorton]

Not a classic swing pattern as the high of the swing low 28/01 was only exceeded twice, but went short nevertheless on this on several FTSE350 stocks before the close. US closed even weaker so possibility this downturn will dominate for the next week or so.

 

[tomorton]

Good grief. No sooner am I sure I am right being short than the US makes the most massive Hammer. I expect to be stopped out of everything short in the first 10 minutes on Monday. After that I will be looking for a resumption of the down move by breach of 5033.

Change of trend to 'Up' is always possible - if Monday is an 'Up' swing day, making Friday a two-day swing low, a swing high above 5306 and new swing low above 5034.

 

[barjon]

Bit late in the day, tomo? Should've been short from around 5230 on Thursday?

DOW slipped back below 10000 after hours but there should be follow through on Monday after such a strong move. FTSE should open around 20+ higher. It's (FTSE) continued being dreadfully weak versus DOW so I guess it'll trade pretty strong if there is follow through in the DOW.

good trading

jon

 

[Mr. G]

For me, the short would have been under Wednesday's low. Unfortunately, I was traveling and didn't have an order in as I was uming and ahing about leaving an order under Tuesday's low before i left the office. I didn't in the end; obviously if I had I would have been in a trade albeit at a less favorable level than entering a day later.
Still, lesson learned and note to self: If you're going to use a mechanical system, then use it - that's what stops are for.
So, looking for the next entry point. A 3 day rally up to about 5300 with another break down on the 4th day would suit me.

 

[tomorton]

Oh I was in short on Thursday, good timing, all according to plan set out earlier in week - its just that that US hammer really looks savagely bullish to me.

 

[Mr. G]

We had my 3rd up day today, although we aren't near 5300 as yet. I have an ambitious order to opena short under today's low. Small size as stop loss is hideous.

 

[tomorton]

Me too Mr. G, will likely keep repeating this order as we rise, until we break 5306.
Also still have most of last week's equity shorts running. Breach of 5306 would have taken these out too.

 

[Mr. G]

Tom - 5306 being the change of trend point?

Seems a shame you are still in your shorts from last week. Based on your new exit strategy where you would exit at the second consecutive higher close, if the first was above the previous day's high it seems like you are still in trades as your rule has been missed by a few points on the 9th and 10th. That said, not sure it's obvious how to tweak the rule.

 

[tomorton]

Yes 5306 is swing high of 03/02. Only two days after 28/01 breached its high (5276.5) so not a classic pattern but good enough.

On exits on second higher close, only applying that to 14EMA/price cross-over trades, these were routine Rivalland-style swings. Anyway, 2 closed for profit, remainder all back in the money now.

 

[tomorton]

Moved my short order up a tad as we made a slightly higher low Friday.

Today made an inside day (typical when the FTSE100 trades without the US I think) so short not activated.

Nice how often the IDs on the FTSE come in what turns out to be the highest or lowest part of a move that reverses sharply. Sharescope swing charts print these very clearly, e.g. 29/01, 16/01, 30/11, 25/11. Maybe 15/02?

 

[Mr. G]

I moved mine up a bit too.....let's see what unfolds tomorrow.

 

[tomorton]

Moved my order up to just below today's low - playing the inside day break-out.

 

[tomorton]

Moved sell order up again, to just below today's early morning SB low. Today's pattern looks likely to establish as another inside day, with range within putative swing high 12/02 range, or a new putative swing high breaching 5208.