Swingin' the ftse 2010

[ibetyou]

Hi Tomorton.keep up the good work,i look farward to reading your forcast up here in somerset as we seem to think on the same lines.
Have a good weekend ,looking farward to next weeks direction.
If i get time i will put my thoughts on show over the weekend for you to mull over,be intresting if were still going in the same direction.
Thankyou for taking the time and trouble in keeping the thread going.

 

[tomorton]

Cheers mate.
I wouldn't be surprised if next week's action shows a little bounce, but stays well within this week's range, maybe closing a tad higher by next Friday, most likely printing something like a bear flag pattern. After that, the head-and-shoulders pattern suggests a fall to appr. 4100: now that would be nice.

 

[barjon]

Tomo

After a weakish start on Friday FTSE traded strong against DOW all day so it's beginning to look as if its keen to make up a bit of lost ground. With big brother half asleep on Monday it might look to follow through a bit.

 

[kingfisher3210]

From where spread betting companies gets its quote on FTSE 100, DJ 30 and Nikkei 225, 24 hours a day?

http://www.igmarkets.co.uk/- Here these indices and many other indices trade 24 hours a day.So, my question is on which exchange these indices trade 24 hours a day?

 

[ibetyou]

Morning guys.Just done my self assessment and it looks as if were all thinking in the same direction which i'm finding comforting.
I think i will wait untill tuesdays finish to see how much lost ground it can claim back.
I'm hoping it can get back to 5000 would like to see a high of 4900 on monday and 5039 on tuesday,if that happens i will join Mr Tomorton.
Or am i being to optimistic do you think,
I am tempted to do a small day trade on monday while i'm waiting,seems a shame not to.
i will see what the figures look like monday morning and what position sizing i would be looking at.
Well thats about it from me,see you all in the south next week guys.

 

[tomorton]

We've reached the half-way mark - how are people doing so far?

I am not happy.

Factor No.1 - Have found that some swing patterns I am able to recognise and trade have not been as reliable as usual this year, despite reasonable backtest histories: so, too many false starts.

Factor No.2 - Daytrading. I am cr@p at it and am definitely giving it up here and now and today.

Factor No.3 - Too timid re my own 2C14X strategy that I was banging on about in January. If I had traded this, taking all signals, including weak, contrary and compounding signals, the system would have gained me 364pts, plus a still running position (from 24/06) currently worth another 262. This poor system on its own would have been worth 10% based on the FTSE 31/12.

 

[barjon]

From where spread betting companies gets its quote on FTSE 100, DJ 30 and Nikkei 225, 24 hours a day?

http://www.igmarkets.co.uk/- Here these indices and many other indices trade 24 hours a day.So, my question is on which exchange these indices trade 24 hours a day?

They aren't any. The sb companies make up their own prices out of hours using a fairly complex algorithm drawing on the various futures and what's happening in markets that are open.

 

[wallstreet1928]

FTSE 100 - Weekly chart ..........Head & Shoulders activated , if FTSE remains below 5500 then bear pattern remains active !! Target 4200

a follow up to chart i posted a few weeks back

bear pattern still active

i expect a retrace to the neckline in the following week and then the bears come out to play

 

[Mr Flibble]

We've reached the half-way mark - how are people doing so far?

I am not happy.

Factor No.1 - Have found that some swing patterns I am able to recognise and trade have not been as reliable as usual this year, despite reasonable backtest histories: so, too many false starts.

Factor No.2 - Daytrading. I am cr@p at it and am definitely giving it up here and now and today.

Factor No.3 - Too timid re my own 2C14X strategy that I was banging on about in January. If I had traded this, taking all signals, including weak, contrary and compounding signals, the system would have gained me 364pts, plus a still running position (from 24/06) currently worth another 262. This poor system on its own would have been worth 10% based on the FTSE 31/12.

Its funny Tom but I'd love to get good at longer term trading but I'm very poor at it. Short term trades are ok for me. Perhaps we could help each other?

 

[Mr Flibble]

I've been looking for an opp to hold a long term long position in the FTSE. I keep seeing signs but the bears always seem to win. I did notice last Thursday however that the market responded to poor unemployment figures in the US. The DOW went down but regained quite admirably. I'm looking to the FTSE to show us the way out of this downward spiral as historically it tends to make its mind up before the DOW (sometimes days and even a week in advance).

I'd like to know what signs you chaps are waiting for to confirm an upward leg?

Just to add a close above 4900 would do it for me. But as mentioned I'm no long term trader.

 

[Splitlink]

Its funny Tom but I'd love to get good at longer term trading but I'm very poor at it. Short term trades are ok for me. Perhaps we could help each other?

I'm trying to go longer term, too. At my age I don't think that too much short term trading is good for the pump! .

What do you think of this chart? My problem is that I am used to close stops and I find the stops on 4 hour charts daunting.

 

[tomorton]

Hi Mr Flibble - I might be accused of having some kind of blind spot here but I can only see successful short-term trading as being harder than long-term. It certainly doesn't suit me in that it encourages over-trading, entries before signals have confirmed and vague stops that I then proceed to slip.

Then along comes Split's chart and seems to confirm my parallel belief that the TA for both is virtually identical - instead of 4hr bars, substitute 1-day bars or 1-week bars and you could operate a trend-following system equally well. So why can't I do it?

I guess the short-termness of intra-day trading is just not for me but I continue to collect strategies and techniques and would be very interested to see your charts as well. I will not be pulling the trigger but one fine day I will get into it. Meantime, I continue to trade on EOD or even EOW TA.

 

[Splitlink]

Hi Mr Flibble - I might be accused of having some kind of blind spot here but I can only see successful short-term trading as being harder than long-term. It certainly doesn't suit me in that it encourages over-trading, entries before signals have confirmed and vague stops that I then proceed to slip.

Then along comes Split's chart and seems to confirm my parallel belief that the TA for both is virtually identical - instead of 4hr bars, substitute 1-day bars or 1-week bars and you could operate a trend-following system equally well. So why can't I do it?

I guess the short-termness of intra-day trading is just not for me but I continue to collect strategies and techniques and would be very interested to see your charts as well. I will not be pulling the trigger but one fine day I will get into it. Meantime, I continue to trade on EOD or even EOW TA.

Tom, I haven't got to EOD, yet. Maybe, I will.

I have, mostly, always traded mornings which, in its turn, relates to low TF trading. I have recently been interesting myself with hourly charts. Having found that it is, for me, a matter of risk acceptance, with the stops getting further away I am looking at 4 hours and liking the picture and the averages on that TF so, if it successful, the next step may be EOD.

The contra against this is the risk.

The pro is that, possibly, I can leave entry orders while I am not around. With the short term trading that I am using at present I very rarely leave open trades, or orders, on the computer when I am not there.

It's all so different.

 

[barjon]

I think Split's chart is an SB quote one which doesn't match the real thing exactly and is a bit of a hybrid since their price is drawn from the dow and futures out of hours. That doesn't matter a lot, I suppose, except that it's a bit dodgy to be too precise about limit/stop levels from a TA perspective.

You also need to bear in mind that a strong dow move after ftse close will move their ftse quote by a similar degree. It's mostly the case that real FTSE will not open at that extreme level the next day which causes a sharp contrary move in the SB quote just after the open.

 

[Splitlink]

I think Split's chart is an SB quote one which doesn't match the real thing exactly and is a bit of a hybrid since their price is drawn from the dow and futures out of hours. That doesn't matter a lot, I suppose, except that it's a bit dodgy to be too precise about limit/stop levels from a TA perspective.

You also need to bear in mind that a strong dow move after ftse close will move their ftse quote by a similar degree. It's mostly the case that real FTSE will not open at that extreme level the next day which causes a sharp contrary move in the SB quote just after the open.

True, but using 4 hour charts, with a trend following mentality, the overnight volatility doesn't seem to matter to me so much. That raises a thought. Maybe my stop loss is too far away and they should be closer!

It is fairly new to me and I'll have to see how I go.

 

[ibetyou]

Morning all,just been reading the board and i think we all suffer from the same thing,trusting in are analysis toolpak,
I'm still looking at doing a day trade on monday trouble is i have to work and don't like not being around when i have a day trade on,its tempting but i would have to leave an order to get in and get out,
To be sure of getting in and out i would have to play where i think the middle of the movement is going to be which would not leave much profit to risk ratio.
no i think i will stay out and play the bigger picture on wednesday.

Day trading is ok if you like watching paint dry and bet smaller amounts often,where as weekly trading or longer is more fullfilling less stressfull and you can still find the time to do other thinks you find intresting.
Having said that i still injoy a day trade if i don't have to work and would love to be home monday.

 

[barjon]

.............Day trading is ok if you like watching paint dry............

phew, some paint !


ftse regularly has 100+ daily range to play with

good trading

jon

 

[ibetyou]

i was referring to oil base paint,i.e longer drying.

 

[tomorton]

Been looking back over 2009 and backtesting 5 favourite swing trading patterns. Applying no filters for entry with/against trend, and where apporpriate accepting new trades couonter to existing positions, results were 1) 2C14X, 2) Outside weeks break-outs, 3) Whiplash, 4) Hikkake and 5) Three-day swings.

Outside weeks breakouts only generated 5 trades, one of which was a hikkake, so was vastly more efficient per trade than daily trading. Three-day swings generated most trades and lowest points return, but not far behind Hikkakes.

I also did (or have done previously) backtests previously for Inside day breakouts and Key reversals and found neither profitable.

Think I need to give preference in TA and position sizing to 2C14X, Whiplash and Outside weeks.

 

[kingfisher3210]

They aren't any. The sb companies make up their own prices out of hours using a fairly complex algorithm drawing on the various futures and what's happening in markets that are open

Thanks Boss. It is an interesting global trading going on.

I have seen FTSE 100 opens at the price almost similar to what SB are quoting at 8 a.m BST. This is useful feature of SB- atleast they are helping the traders in price discovery process.