Mr Flibble
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If you bring up a daily chart you can see we just approached a key retracement today 5110 is a 61% retrace of the recent bull run that started on the 10th June. If we break through that point later on today I'd have to say it doesn't look good. I'm going long now but with stops at 5098.
Clarification, I didn't see a long during today's session but as we had a strong 80-20 pattern today, tomorrow is a different matter. Could see a worthwhile long if we trade below today's range then bounce: this is strictly speaking a daytrade for holding to the close only unless you're brave.
wallstreet1928
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In cash again, looking to short again on breach of week's low 5031. Breach of previous swing low4984 would be more bearish.
Long opportunities are less likely but could be dramatic if they arise -
80-20 daytrade Monday on trade below but recovery through 5031
short-term swing trade long on breach of 5131 if 5031 holds
long-term swing trade long on breach of 5330 if 5031 holds
Long opportunities are less likely but could be dramatic if they arise -
80-20 daytrade Monday on trade below but recovery through 5031
short-term swing trade long on breach of 5131 if 5031 holds
long-term swing trade long on breach of 5330 if 5031 holds
spyros - A good subject for a paper but incredibly difficult to calculate the FTSE100 manually.
See Wikipedia at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTSE_100_Index
The formula is -
Index level = Σ(Price of stock* Number of shares)*Free float factor/ Index Divisor
The Free float Adjustment factor represents the proportion of shares that is floated as a percentage of issued shares and then its rounded up to the nearest multiple of 5% for calculation purposes. To find the free-float capitalization of a company, first find its market cap (number of outstanding shares x share price) then multiply its free-float factor. The free-float method, therefore, does not include restricted stocks, such as those held by company insiders.
The Index Divisor is the key number, as although the number of constituents can only be 100, some of the companies listed can change every 3 months and the constituent comanies' shares on the market, and these shares as a percentage of their total shares, change all the time.
The divisor therefore changes continuously according to cioorporate actions. Originally, it was a somewhat arbitrary number - in the case of the FTSE100, it was calculated so that the divisor gave a value to the FTSE100 of exactly 1,000pts on its first day of operation.
Note that other indices are not always compiled and calculated in the same way. e.g the Dow Jones Industrial Average ('the Dow').
See Wikipedia at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTSE_100_Index
The formula is -
Index level = Σ(Price of stock* Number of shares)*Free float factor/ Index Divisor
The Free float Adjustment factor represents the proportion of shares that is floated as a percentage of issued shares and then its rounded up to the nearest multiple of 5% for calculation purposes. To find the free-float capitalization of a company, first find its market cap (number of outstanding shares x share price) then multiply its free-float factor. The free-float method, therefore, does not include restricted stocks, such as those held by company insiders.
The Index Divisor is the key number, as although the number of constituents can only be 100, some of the companies listed can change every 3 months and the constituent comanies' shares on the market, and these shares as a percentage of their total shares, change all the time.
The divisor therefore changes continuously according to cioorporate actions. Originally, it was a somewhat arbitrary number - in the case of the FTSE100, it was calculated so that the divisor gave a value to the FTSE100 of exactly 1,000pts on its first day of operation.
Note that other indices are not always compiled and calculated in the same way. e.g the Dow Jones Industrial Average ('the Dow').
I know that you guys go for the longer haul and I am a simple morning trader but, the way that I see it, if you get into a high/low point in a trending market, then any opinions that I have may be of use, in the same way that yours are to me so, if you had done what I said that I was going to do and shorted into strength, what would you be doing now?
I had a few moments of doubt because I shorted at 1002 ,5074 and the previous high was tested shortly after. If you had done the same, then you would have had another test in the afternoon. However, you'd be trading overnight, now, with a profit buffer. I took 19.5 points.
It could make a good start to longer term trading tomorrow and, if wrong, you should be able to close without damage.
Lets see how it opens relative to my 5074 tomorrow. I repeat, I'm not in this trade, now.
I was happy with a down trendline on Friday. I'm not so sure for tomorrow, though. I'll wait and see.
I had a few moments of doubt because I shorted at 1002 ,5074 and the previous high was tested shortly after. If you had done the same, then you would have had another test in the afternoon. However, you'd be trading overnight, now, with a profit buffer. I took 19.5 points.
It could make a good start to longer term trading tomorrow and, if wrong, you should be able to close without damage.
Lets see how it opens relative to my 5074 tomorrow. I repeat, I'm not in this trade, now.
I was happy with a down trendline on Friday. I'm not so sure for tomorrow, though. I'll wait and see.
Well, all you big swingin' dicks! I hope that you entered short on Monday. I couldn't get a good entry this morning so I went somewhere else.
It looks as if I am going to have to start trading overnight, the 19 points I took yesterday looks small fry, now!
It looks as if I am going to have to start trading overnight, the 19 points I took yesterday looks small fry, now!
Hi Split - Yes, I was short from an order placed Sunday night, and this turned out well enough.
Hi Mr. G - We did indeed breach the swing low 08/06 but today's low only matched 4898.5 from 25/05. The respect for this level over the last two sessions is striking and, combined with the inverted hammer signal makes me suspect we will see a bounce tomorrow. I will be ready to go long at today's high if the low is respected, as a normal swing trade. This would also allow me another entry to short again, I don't wish to chase price down through the 4984 low.
Meanwhile the US is falling off a cliff.
Hi Mr. G - We did indeed breach the swing low 08/06 but today's low only matched 4898.5 from 25/05. The respect for this level over the last two sessions is striking and, combined with the inverted hammer signal makes me suspect we will see a bounce tomorrow. I will be ready to go long at today's high if the low is respected, as a normal swing trade. This would also allow me another entry to short again, I don't wish to chase price down through the 4984 low.
Meanwhile the US is falling off a cliff.
arabianights
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Hi Barjon!
Poor chart to FTSE yesterday but hammer pattern from US markets and rising FTSE quotes overnight increase possibility we will have a bounce this morning, seemingly making Thursday a swing low. However, it is lower than the previous lows and beware of US employment data due at 1:30pm our time - its hard to believe this will be a positive influence on the market. It could be advisable if taking a long this am to get out before lunch, then re-assess after the US figures.
Shorted into strength myself today, though no nice neat pattern. Now we've made an inside day spinning top and the US is buying into the holiday weekend, as they do, so the bears could be squeezed a bit for a few days. Indicators show oversold so we were due for a bounce but still see this as a bear market and I'm clinging to that short and looking for weakness next week to short some more.
