SuddenDeath
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good morning everyone
dr.blix
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hi tom/jon,
just some thoughts about where we might go, knowing the markets probably something completely random will occur instead.
i'm wondering if the decrease in osc div gives weight to the rectangle theory?
daily seems to be pointing to the 5th or the 8th as a deciding day?
just some thoughts about where we might go, knowing the markets probably something completely random will occur instead.
i'm wondering if the decrease in osc div gives weight to the rectangle theory?
daily seems to be pointing to the 5th or the 8th as a deciding day?
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Hi dr.blix - Rectangle? Or more of a bull pennant? Flattening oscillator - yes, it certainly seems like MAs and indicators of various descriptions are calming down and converging to point eastwards. Of course, with price being constricted into a range for 3 weeks now, this is an inevitable side-effect, so I am not that keen on indicators -they're not often telling us something we didn't already know (like when the stochastic in an uptrend moves above 70 and just stays there). They're all derivatives of price, and that is the key to action for me.
As for 4350 - yes, very possibly a base for upwards movement: it tallies pretty well with the 4410-4445 gap that could be support as it was a week ago and 2 weeks ago.
As for 4350 - yes, very possibly a base for upwards movement: it tallies pretty well with the 4410-4445 gap that could be support as it was a week ago and 2 weeks ago.
FTSE100 Candlestick TA 03/06 – Inside range day, closing just above previous close and not far from today’s open. Pattern resembles doji, with close just above one-third point of day’s range. Despite weak performance, pattern suggests selling has found a base.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA 03/06 – Inside day fails to extend downleg from swing high 01/06. Breach of 4294 would affirm downtrend. Breach of 4521 would re-confirm uptrend.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA 03/06 – 03/06 remains putative swing low, higher than previous, 26/05. Breach of 4521 would re-confirm uptrend.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just below mid-point of range. Gaps 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) and 4194-4218 may offer support. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral. Line chart study still suggests bull flag or pennant formation with three successive higher highs and three higher lows. Breach of 4521 on or after Friday 05/06, would mark 20d high.
Dow – Strong counter-attack day, finishing near day’s high and above previous day’s range.
FTSE was indecisive: some charts show very tight open-close range, near perect doji. Either way, tight body and long shadows suggest market not happy to continue the trend (downwards). US closed strongly up and looks like it has legs to carry on. All makes me more satisfied to have closed the short last night. As for long signals tomorrow, I would like to see one or more of these -
gap down then strong recovery - whiplash
trade below low then above high - key reversal
breach of 4458, not breaching 4359 - 2d swing
The 200EMA is overhead at 4443 and could be resistance, but I would still like to be long. Those folk who trade on line charts will be seeing an increasingly bullish flag pointing to a break-out and a chance to get to the north side of the 200, where the bulls live.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA 03/06 – Inside day fails to extend downleg from swing high 01/06. Breach of 4294 would affirm downtrend. Breach of 4521 would re-confirm uptrend.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA 03/06 – 03/06 remains putative swing low, higher than previous, 26/05. Breach of 4521 would re-confirm uptrend.
General TA Notes
Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just below mid-point of range. Gaps 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) and 4194-4218 may offer support. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral. Line chart study still suggests bull flag or pennant formation with three successive higher highs and three higher lows. Breach of 4521 on or after Friday 05/06, would mark 20d high.
Dow – Strong counter-attack day, finishing near day’s high and above previous day’s range.
FTSE was indecisive: some charts show very tight open-close range, near perect doji. Either way, tight body and long shadows suggest market not happy to continue the trend (downwards). US closed strongly up and looks like it has legs to carry on. All makes me more satisfied to have closed the short last night. As for long signals tomorrow, I would like to see one or more of these -
gap down then strong recovery - whiplash
trade below low then above high - key reversal
breach of 4458, not breaching 4359 - 2d swing
The 200EMA is overhead at 4443 and could be resistance, but I would still like to be long. Those folk who trade on line charts will be seeing an increasingly bullish flag pointing to a break-out and a chance to get to the north side of the 200, where the bulls live.
A lucky experience - and this is absolutely true.
I just went into my back-up spreadbetting account to have a look at their new trading platform. It opened up showing me in an open position, long on the FTSE100. I was astonished to find I had gone long on the FTSE on 27/04 and am now 305pts up! I had totally forgotten this but this could be my best spreadbet ever!
I just went into my back-up spreadbetting account to have a look at their new trading platform. It opened up showing me in an open position, long on the FTSE100. I was astonished to find I had gone long on the FTSE on 27/04 and am now 305pts up! I had totally forgotten this but this could be my best spreadbet ever!
barjon
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ah! That's the way to do it, tommo. Stick it on and forget it, so no getting screwed up in front of the screen all day. Did you have a stop on?
good trading
jon
Jon - There was a stop, its the one that Caps Spread opens automatically when you open a position so it was probably I don't know 200pts lower than the entry. Turned out fine in the end, I closed this morning at +348pts. Still can't understand how I missed this position for so long. Never mind, I knew I was naturally lucky anyway.
barjon
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:cheesy: - nah, pure talent!!
Something similar happened to me some years ago when the world was paper based. Held several tranches of Nat West shares and sold the lot and the spent the next six months bemoaning the fact that they had continued to rise. Then got a dividend cheque and found that I still had some, but by that time they'd come back down to near where I thought I'd sold them.......Lend me your lucky socks!!
good trading
jon
timsk
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Nice one Tom - well done! Am I right in thinking you trade £100 a point?
:cheesy:
FTSE100 Candlestick TA - Last day - Higher range day, closing above previous close and today’s open. Price fell back significantly from high but recovered to close above open, confirming buying demand: pattern resembles bullish inverted hammer, though it is out of place well above recent bearish sessions.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA - Last day - Higher range day fails to extend downleg from swing high 01/06 but fails to breach previous swing high 4518.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA - Last day – Confirmed 03/06 as swing low, higher than previous, 26/05.
General TA Notes - Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just above mid-point of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to cap gains. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral. Line chart study still suggests increasingly bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 3 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high.
Dow – Near doji pattern suggests close match between buyers and sellers, though high range continued upswing from 15/05 and made new high, closing near high of the week.
I have to note two things this morning - the US close wasn't as bullish as things looked when I went long at the London close. Secondly, the ADVFN FTSE chart I was then working over suggested more FTSE resilience than the Sharescope data I see now. Frustrating as I would have scaled back the position, though I would still be long today. We are bumping against the low 4500's resistance from recent highs but I think this range is approaching maturity and bullish pressure suggests better odds for a break-out than a rejection. Nevertheless, strictly speaking I am in too early and too deep.
FTSE100 3d Swing TA - Last day - Higher range day fails to extend downleg from swing high 01/06 but fails to breach previous swing high 4518.
FTSE100 2d Swing TA - Last day – Confirmed 03/06 as swing low, higher than previous, 26/05.
General TA Notes - Medium-term trend continues sideways, with price just above mid-point of range. Resistance in the 4485-4521 range continues to cap gains. Gap 4294-4317 (matching Jan and Feb highs) should offer support. P&F chart still shows small-scale triple top but no entry signal. 20RSI showing neutral. Line chart study still suggests increasingly bullish flag formation with 3 successive higher highs and 3 higher lows. Breach of 4521 would mark 20d high.
Dow – Near doji pattern suggests close match between buyers and sellers, though high range continued upswing from 15/05 and made new high, closing near high of the week.
I have to note two things this morning - the US close wasn't as bullish as things looked when I went long at the London close. Secondly, the ADVFN FTSE chart I was then working over suggested more FTSE resilience than the Sharescope data I see now. Frustrating as I would have scaled back the position, though I would still be long today. We are bumping against the low 4500's resistance from recent highs but I think this range is approaching maturity and bullish pressure suggests better odds for a break-out than a rejection. Nevertheless, strictly speaking I am in too early and too deep.
HaloTrader
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I use Finspreads for my main SB account, Capital Spreads for back-up (though it actually has more capital in it right now). I use TD Waterhouse as a broker: I mention it as on some occasions I will go long on the FTSE100 by buying the iShares rather than taking a long SB. I also use it for occasional share deals (another nice windfall last week when I found a credit for £200 from the dividend on some Ladbrokes shares I must have held (but don't remember) at some point last year - I never hold shares long and never buy for the dividend. All three accounts work well. I probably have an old (vacant) Halifax Sharexpress account but have not used it for 5 years.
Caps have just refurbished ther trading platform and it looks like it should be more practical to use.
Caps have just refurbished ther trading platform and it looks like it should be more practical to use.
Looking back along this thread, it looks like none of us mentioned the extreme 20RSI we reached on 08/05. Although such events on indicator charts should never be taken as simple entry/exit signals, the index was clearly going to struggle to make more points quickly. In fact, in the 19 succeeding sessions we have dropped back 24pts.
From which I would say, a) its obviously we weren't going up, and b) Wow! We have only dropped 24pts from an extreme indicator value we only touch once every three years!
From which I would say, a) its obviously we weren't going up, and b) Wow! We have only dropped 24pts from an extreme indicator value we only touch once every three years!
Was looking at the interpretation of RSI for the FTSE, and I have just found this analysis site is still operating from Norway - Investtech.com
I think they use a programme that generates pretty decent TA commentary. I thought they had been chased off UK stuff by the FSA but obviously not, though they say their TA is not aimed at UK consumers.
Interesting stuff, though visitors cannot navigate to commentaries like this from the website, you will need to register and subscribe or use another method: I am not a subscriber.
I think they use a programme that generates pretty decent TA commentary. I thought they had been chased off UK stuff by the FSA but obviously not, though they say their TA is not aimed at UK consumers.
Interesting stuff, though visitors cannot navigate to commentaries like this from the website, you will need to register and subscribe or use another method: I am not a subscriber.
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