swingin' the ftse: 2008

[kev1n1983]

Hi Everyone

New to the forum, but not trading... i spreadbet the FTSE intra day, does anyone else? i do want to swing trade but only when capital is better.

I read a few of the posts, and i hopefully can give you some useful info.....

All the Spreadbetting platforms work on the futures price as far as i know. If you look at the chart just now, 7pm double bottom and a strong rally the futures are now going flat, this is giving ppl a chance to get use to the price ( it is also at 38% fib as resistance) so i believe that it will either fall during the night or have a sell off in the morning. However looking at the daily we have apossible head n shoulders, RSI getting better. 1hr chart is over extended maybe pull back to the 4000 level....

What do you (swing traders) think will happen over the next week?

Thanks everyone

Kev

 

[tomorton]

Helo Kev - What will the FTSE do over the next week? - In a sense we don't even need to know until it does it, because until it does it, we're not going to react. So, more practically, I would suggest -

The prevailing main downtrend will probably continue, especially given the failure of the swing high 21/10. So, any short position signalled 22/10 may be kept open with a trailing stop, may be enlarged even, but the signal for entry has passed. If we breach the swing low of 16/10, that would give a continuation signal for a further short.

On the other hand, if we form a new swing low, you might wish to take a counter-trend long position when its high is breached upwards. This would be more significant if the new swing low were higher than the last swing low 16/10.

The counter-trend move might not reverse the underlying main trend, in which case there should be an opportunity to go short at its failure.

But all this is banal. I have absolutely no idea from any TA or FA evidence I can see whether the FTSE will be higher or lower in 7 days, 7 months or 7 years. I am pretty sure it will have been higher at some point within the 7 year timespan, but the rest is guesswork, which I don't do.

 

[tomorton]

Unusual out of hours TA last night.

I take it as read that the SB quotes after 1630 simply track the futures. But last night was a demonstration as to how hard it can be to make money at SB in this game. From 1700 to 1930 we had a 257pt drop. From 1930 to 2200 we had a 221pt rise. From 2200 to 0800 today we had a 197pt fall. The total range for 23/10 during FTSE market hours was only 181pts

The first drop should have triggered all stops on longs and triggered many short orders. If you put in a stop on your shorts when triggered, these were very possibly hit in the following rise, leaving you flat, but this might also have trgiggered a few longs placed after the close. The subsequent drop would have stopped out any longs with stops, and by that time there were probably very few short orders placed after 2200, so the SB is probably pretty much flat and so are most players.

UNLESS you went in short at the close last night without a stop. And if you went long without a stop, the market has opened 185pts down, less than the two overnight falls. What lessons can we learn from fluctuations like these?

 

[kev1n1983]

All I can say is WOW!! cant believe it recovered 100%!!

Thanks Tomorton, for the reply. i see the failure swing high on the 21st - But what time frame to you trade? IS there any websites or books that you would recommend for swing? do you trade intra day?

Do you know any sb software that give you volume on intraday?

To continue about after hours trading... personally i would never hold a trade over night, unless swing. but i would continue to look at it until 9pm. When i spoke to a pro institute trader, i ask him about the futures and their behaviour he basically said if there is a rally at the end of the night 9pm the should be a retracement especially if there has been a couple of days up or down. But as the FTSE follows the DOW i wouldnt try it at 16:30 unless you get a signal to buy.


Thanks

Kev

 

[tomorton]

Hi Kev -

Recommended books on technique are Marc Rivalland on Swing Trading and Streeet Smarts by Raschke & Connors.

I never set out to trade intra-day, always have the objective of 2-10 days, but the volatility recently has pushed me out of positions by market close more often than usually.

I often treat the FTSE and US markets as a single session and waiting for confirmation from the Dow or more likely the S&P. It would be silly to go long on the FTSE on a bullish signal when the Dow falls all evening: New York hasn't even reached lunchtime when we close.

 

[kev1n1983]

Thanks for the books, is there anyway to calculate the swings? it would be nice to know for intra day....

Ta

 

[tomorton]

Hi kev -

"calculate the swings"? If you mean 'predict', no, I don't think so. Some people will point to support and resistance levels, and these can certainly make a swing more likely at a certain price. But very few techniques work if they require you to trade on a S/R level in advance of price action.

Swing trading does allow you to anticipate market moves somewhat though - if we have a session ranging from 5000 to 5050, and this is the third session with higher low and higher high, but the main trend is still down, you can place a sell order after the close, below the low. If price falls through the order level, you have succsessfully anticipatred the move and got in short. If it isn't triggered and price goes up again, maybe the next session will be the swing high and you can do the same again, just move your order level up to the appropriate level next day.

 

[kev1n1983]

Have you ever look at fib fans? this might work to see roughly where a swing maybe ( might be talking rubbish though, i have not really looked into fibs fans that much) but your spot on u cant predict what the market will do, just have an educated guess...haha

I am going to have a look at swing trades a lot more, so keep me informed.

Thanks again tomorton

 

[kev1n1983]

Hi all daytraders and swingtraders

I have been thinking "tick tock, tick tock"....... of starting a forum for "hints tips and trading strategies" i dont know if there is one already so if there is please can you tell me.

If not, i would like to see all the things we do to make money on it, as well as previous trades, experiences, tips on indicators, possible entries and exits etc etc..... BASICALLY a one stop shop for all people that are serious about taking money out of this unlimited cash machine called the stock market.

It would also be nice if we could do conference calls, ie on skype....

Tell me what you think, i hope you all agree that if done correctly we can make even more money together....

Thanks

Kev

 

[tomorton]

Kev - Haven't looked at Fib fans but of course these MAY indicate where significant S/R MAY occur. Whether this actually occurs is only defined by price action at the time (volume helps you decide in the heat of real-time). I personally rate Fibonacci ratios as about as important as significant numbers, such as X00, X000, whereas historic S/R, even if occurring at a very insignificant numeral value and nowhere near a Fib ratio is mucu more significant. Nevertheless, I can never intiate an order or plan an entry using any of these.

 

[tomorton]

A further thought on SB spikes.

We've all had these - if you have a short position, a spike up triggers your stop and leaves you flat: the market falls. Or, you have a buy order, the spike triggers it and leaves you long: the market falls.

I appreciate the SB quotes out of market hours track the futures, but none of this rules out manipulation. Is anyone using these patterns to predict market direction? It seems to me that an up-spike suits the big players very well if they believe the market is going to fall. My question is, can we use the spike against them? Can we see a market fall as more likely if we are being up-spiked by the out of hours quotes?

 

[Shaun12uk]

To be honest I have notices these spikes on SB quotes and this is where most people bottle it and let their emotions take over or there stops are hit.
There are spikes I agree and have noticed them more in a uptrend before a decent fall of say 100 points on the FTSE especially am.

I do believe personally it is the big players or SB institutions squeezing out the stops at rounded levels before the price resumes its big move.

Cheers
Shaun

 

[trigger]

Hi tom
Well from 16.30 till 21.00 we still have volume to substantiate any spikes or not as the case may be, though if your meaning after 21.00 till 08.00 as with SB platforms its a bit of a lost cause, though i will look into it further now:idea:

Be Well
steve:

 

[fantastic]

To be honest I have notices these spikes on SB quotes and this is where most people bottle it and let their emotions take over or there stops are hit.
There are spikes I agree and have noticed them more in a uptrend before a decent fall of say 100 points on the FTSE especially am.

I do believe personally it is the big players or SB institutions squeezing out the stops at rounded levels before the price resumes its big move.

Cheers
Shaun

Someone recommended to have 2 or 3 quotes from unrelated companies when trading.
From my limited observations the spikes appeared on the different companies, but their sizes seem different ( may be due to the different horizontal /vertical scales on the charts).

 

[wallstreet1928]

can you please tell me which trading software you utilise in order to get access to the amount of volume on the Indices and individual Stocks?

I am currently using MarketMaker with CMC markets and i cant get access to it?

 

[fantastic]

Please, remember that SB offer "limited" features.
for something that sounds like SB charts, I would say:
- few examples: tradestation, cqg, e-signal, e-trade, metatrader, ninjatradr charting for instance
- talk to chart software sales people
- discuss the open source software out there and you'll hear about what you
are asking
- remember there are other brokers : talk to them about their specific software and what other alternative sofware would sound good to them.
- I heard that the software section here does discuss software features

How does this sound?

 

[wallstreet1928]

which software package would you recommend I utilise, or in other words which software package do you use?

 

[fantastic]

which software package would you recommend I utilise, or in other words which software package do you use?

Man, you have to make your own choices and find what WORKS FOR YOU.

 

[tomorton]

Choppy day but confirmed 27/10 as swing low, for nice bullish move up this evening tracking the US, allowing me to take the profits and get flat again - in such volatile times, taking a profit when I see it.

 

[kev1n1983]

Do any of you think that this could now be a trend reversal?

Some great patterns and signals for it to go up... i think the dow may pull back to around 8500-8700 and the rally again...