The rise took me by surprise.
Though each day is different, things keep repeating themselves.
Hoggums
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Looks like the DJI has bottomed out tonight at an important resistance line.
Will wait till the morning to view the price action overnight but I think a long on the FTSE may be in order. FTSE currently at 4001 at the moment. Expect plenty of whipsaw in the morning and will try to enter around 3900 level with the stop at 3801.
However will wait to view how the Asian markets perform. This could be a slump down to 3500... but the risk/reward means that risking 100 points should be worth a punt.
Will wait till the morning to view the price action overnight but I think a long on the FTSE may be in order. FTSE currently at 4001 at the moment. Expect plenty of whipsaw in the morning and will try to enter around 3900 level with the stop at 3801.
However will wait to view how the Asian markets perform. This could be a slump down to 3500... but the risk/reward means that risking 100 points should be worth a punt.
Hoggums - I tend to agree a FTSE long could be good, though purely on the basis of Wednesday's 80-20 price pattern, suggesting an upward reaction possible. I have entered a buy order just over 1% above the current level to catch the move. (Not a big position as I may be asleep when it triggers and that would leave me without a stop until the alarm goes off.)
_JWG_
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Barjon,
Thank you for your response. Day trading is appealing but working full time throws that form of trading out of the window for me. Plus I've learned that my inexperience is a massive downfall in the world of quick fingered trading... like i said I'm learning. I got to the point where my over analysis caused paralysis. 5min charts multiple MA's the works. My new approach is to simplify and focus on longer term market action, Daily & Weekly charts. This is where I'm really interested in the 3 bar swing approach. I'm back testing charts nightly trying to form my own system. Again thank you for your insight into this trading method and I look forward to your next post.
The FTSE has looked very choppy since October 10th and a swing high may be a while away... thoughts?
Do you trade FX barjon? thoughts?
:smart:
Any attempt to take long positions in this market must only be taken with small stakes. Even my pessimistic view of the markets is beginning to wonder when the trend will cease to be my friend, though. However, the rules are the rules and I am better risking a pullback in a downtrend, than a punt on a possible uptrend.
Split
Split
_JWG_
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... do you mind if I use it as my signature?
Mr. G
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'Marc Rivalland on Swing Trading'
You might skim-read it once and think, this is so simple, it can't work, it must be harder than this, surely trading involves more than this...... Actually, the practice in real-time is harder than the text would suggest but the discipline and planning are excellent exercises for new traders.
My only criticism, you have probably gathered, is that buy and sell signals must be separated by not less than 3 trading days, and even then, you might only take the main trend's signal, ignoring the counter-trend moves. Not enough response to the market's convolutions for my taste so I have been using Barjon's thread as a testing ground for earlier, more frequent signals. He is quite indulgent of my more volatile trading style. So far, the assemblage of strategies is working well and I hope to make back much of what I lost as the tech bubble imploded in 01-02. Grrrr
Great, thanks!
You might skim-read it once and think, this is so simple, it can't work, it must be harder than this, surely trading involves more than this...... Actually, the practice in real-time is harder than the text would suggest but the discipline and planning are excellent exercises for new traders.
My only criticism, you have probably gathered, is that buy and sell signals must be separated by not less than 3 trading days, and even then, you might only take the main trend's signal, ignoring the counter-trend moves. Not enough response to the market's convolutions for my taste so I have been using Barjon's thread as a testing ground for earlier, more frequent signals. He is quite indulgent of my more volatile trading style. So far, the assemblage of strategies is working well and I hope to make back much of what I lost as the tech bubble imploded in 01-02. Grrrr
Great, thanks!
_JWG_
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Hey Tomorton,
Yes I agree with the signal on 29/08. I have a question re the recent swing high you mention. I cant see it on my chart unless you count the 16/10 as the first candle in the 3 bar swing.... i was under the impression the candles had to show higher lows and higher highs in sucession... however the 16/10 has a lower low... thus the 17/10 should have been the first candle counted... thus it was only a 2 candle swing???
I'm using IG charts (FTSE 100 cash)... I realize my charts dont show gap openings but are they lying to me? or should i count the first candle with the lower low 16/10?
see attachment...
Cheers
JWG
Attachments
Hi JWG -
If I was working with your charts I would have to agree, no recent swing high. However ADVFN and Sharescope show 17th, 20th and 21st with consecutive higher lows and higher highs: your chart does not show 21st with a higher high, not sure why, though some data providers do print varying levels, especially at/near the open. Either way, the breach of the low of 21st by the opening gap on the 22nd was a profitable sell signal.
If I was working with your charts I would have to agree, no recent swing high. However ADVFN and Sharescope show 17th, 20th and 21st with consecutive higher lows and higher highs: your chart does not show 21st with a higher high, not sure why, though some data providers do print varying levels, especially at/near the open. Either way, the breach of the low of 21st by the opening gap on the 22nd was a profitable sell signal.
Hi tom
Hope your keeping well my friend, looks like your long may well trigger tommorrow:clap:
Be Well
Steve
_JWG_
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Hey Tom,
Thanks for the response, Is this something I should be concerned about? Is IG data suspect? :-0 Is it cause for signing up with sharescope or ADVFN? :|
Cheers
JWG
Hi JWG - To be honest, I don't know which data is the most reliable, though I hope its the data I am actually being charged for, i.e. Sharescope. The Open is the trickiest value of the four, O, H, L, C, and it seems clear different providers derive this in different ways.
Anyway, I thought I would have a look at my SB company's market for the FTSE100 so far this month and see how close the H, L and C on the November FTSE market have been to the Sharescope values, counting these within the 0800-1630 trading hours only. I suspected that the SB values would be way off the actual index's H, L and C but to my surprise they are mostly much less than 1% out. Quite commonly, the SB quote is less than 10pts from the market. So bang goes my excuse for losses and triggered stops of excessive volatility by the SBs, at least, not during the underlying market hours anyway, their quotes during 1630 to 0800 are all over the place - apparently, tracking the US markets until 9, then the futures.
Is anyone else as surprised as I am? Does this mean that it is too dangerous to set stops for the overnight period, as they will surely be hit?
Anyway, I thought I would have a look at my SB company's market for the FTSE100 so far this month and see how close the H, L and C on the November FTSE market have been to the Sharescope values, counting these within the 0800-1630 trading hours only. I suspected that the SB values would be way off the actual index's H, L and C but to my surprise they are mostly much less than 1% out. Quite commonly, the SB quote is less than 10pts from the market. So bang goes my excuse for losses and triggered stops of excessive volatility by the SBs, at least, not during the underlying market hours anyway, their quotes during 1630 to 0800 are all over the place - apparently, tracking the US markets until 9, then the futures.
Is anyone else as surprised as I am? Does this mean that it is too dangerous to set stops for the overnight period, as they will surely be hit?
_JWG_
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If you dont mind me asking tom, you say you get your charting from sharescope.... but who do you execute your trading with?
Spreadbetting with Finspreads, just opened secondary account with Capital Spreads (they share same data feed as far as I can make out so far).
The scarey thing is how far (hundreds of points) overnight the SB quotes can go away from the preceding close and the following open. On some inter-market oscillations they would surely hit every stop and order on the board. On 29/09 the SB quote closed at 4870 at 1630, and re-opened at 4717, a significant 153pts lower. But it had touched 4547 overnight, 323pts down on the close! By just after 0900 on 30/09, the index was back to the closing level. I begin to think that overnight stops are a trap: who has a stop that is further than 323pts away from the last value?
The scarey thing is how far (hundreds of points) overnight the SB quotes can go away from the preceding close and the following open. On some inter-market oscillations they would surely hit every stop and order on the board. On 29/09 the SB quote closed at 4870 at 1630, and re-opened at 4717, a significant 153pts lower. But it had touched 4547 overnight, 323pts down on the close! By just after 0900 on 30/09, the index was back to the closing level. I begin to think that overnight stops are a trap: who has a stop that is further than 323pts away from the last value?
Hoggums
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I didn't take the trade today - the market didn't dip down low enough for the stop size to be worth it.
However I really like the look of the volatility on the S&P today - a lot of sideways up n down can mean a change of trend in the offing.
However it's too early to take the trade just yet.
