Some of my trades, forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

AUD/USD trade

I have an etry order set at .8876, which is the 4-hour kijun. There is still room for one more strong leg DOWN before it's time for the correction to begin.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Cad/jpy

An entry order for a short has been set at 80.53

 

[4xpipcounter]

USD/CHF trade

Entry to go short at 1.0358.
Now ,it's time for bed. I'll wake up in the morning and see how things are going.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Euro and cable

This should be the move for cable that sends the correction back to 1.5720. Once completed, then we are back in the DOWN to 1.5278.
Euro needs to break through the top of the cloud at 1.2743 and the tenken at 1.2755. Once comfortably beyomd that, then it is on our way to 1.296

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: AUD/USD trade

I had to take this one out at .8875 for +1. I just don't like what I see. I'll buy the grnadkids a big mac with the money off this trade.
The other 2 entries I took out. It still looks good for .8682 before the retracement, but we'll see how it goes.

I have an etry order set at .8876, which is the 4-hour kijun. There is still room for one more strong leg DOWN before it's time for the correction to begin.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: A common S&R trait

This was forecasted. Now, in hindsight, let's see what happened.
It struggled at the DS1, and then broke away on the other side of it and continued, as forecasted, to the DR2 at 1.3101. The other thing it did, and it's worth noting, because of its personality, is that is spiked hard on the other side to 1.3142, but notice where the candle closed--at 1.3100, one point under the DR2, and you see what happened after that.
I guess it is also important to know what will happen as we peer into the future. The DS1 at 1.3001 should be hit before the day is out. Afterwards, the WS2 at 1.2972 could be retested. A base could be formed at that point, as it gets ready for its launch. OTOH, there is the slightest of possibilities it cold happen at the DS1. It is very seldom a major reversal has happened at a daily.
The flip side to all that is there is still room for a further move south. Having said that, it is hard to conceive just how much lower this pair can go.

Now that 1.3060 has been hit, it is decision time. It struggled around that mark a little, and then it continued to the DR1 1.3069, where it got stopped in its tracks. With this type of price action, most likely what is to follow will be a bounce off the DR1, and then a pattern of continuation that will lead us to the DR2 at 1.3101. At that point, we could see a another pullback as the pair builds a base for what is going to be a huge move UP.
I'm not saying that will be exactly the way action will unfold, but I still expect another pullback in order to form a base and solid launching pad.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/chf

This is what I call stopping in mid-air. This does not happen very often, so I'm glad to point it out. If the candle breaks resistance, which is the kijun and th, my WS1, and the bottom of the cloud, then the DOWN did as I already mentioned. It stopped with no reference point. Notice on the charts that just about every trend and correction bounces off a reference point.
I do not think it will happen and price will return to the DOWN. That is strong R in that area. That is what we mean when we say confluence. Also a virtual straight line from the tenken or kijun is a more solid R or S than a fluctuating one.
This whole scenario is just something to watch with regards to the ichiomku / S&R combination.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Oil

This is nothing I trade, but I do track it just because commodity oil prices or directly correlated to gas pump prices. (At least that is the way it is in the US. I assume there is also a correlation in the UK and other countries.)
Oil prices are headed to the kijun at 76.81 (Pardon these charts. They are very sketchy for oil.) I know here in the US we have had a dip of (in my area of 33 cents per gallon). What we will see in the near future is a 20-cent increase in prices at the pump. If this helps save you some money at the pump, then go fill up, now, because we have bottomed out at the pump for awhile.
BTW, all you need are your oil charts to determine gas prices. This does away with all the politicists and personal interest groups idle, good-for-nothing rhetoric on what they have to say about gas prices.
It is also a game we like to play. Fill up when prices are low, and put off when prices are high. It's kind of the same thing in trading forex. We make pips, and then translate it into its monetary equivalent when we buy low and sell high.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Oil

Forgot the chart.

This is nothing I trade, but I do track it just because commodity oil prices or directly correlated to gas pump prices. (At least that is the way it is in the US. I assume there is also a correlation in the UK and other countries.)
Oil prices are headed to the kijun at 76.81 (Pardon these charts. They are very sketchy for oil.) I know here in the US we have had a dip of (in my area of 33 cents per gallon). What we will see in the near future is a 20-cent increase in prices at the pump. If this helps save you some money at the pump, then go fill up, now, because we have bottomed out at the pump for awhile.
BTW, all you need are your oil charts to determine gas prices. This does away with all the politicists and personal interest groups idle, good-for-nothing rhetoric on what they have to say about gas prices.
It is also a game we like to play. Fill up when prices are low, and put off when prices are high. It's kind of the same thing in trading forex. We make pips, and then translate it into its monetary equivalent when we buy low and sell high.

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/AUD trade

We had a nice bounce with this pair near my WR2 at 1.4444. The upper part of the channel, as per my WR, has not been fulfilled yet, and it is near the bottom of it, so I entered long at 1.4309 for what should be a position I'll keep open over the next 24 hours. I'd like to see a more explosive move to 1.45 area to close the week.
In lieu of the cross, aussie should have another strong leg DOWN, while the euro remains consolidative, so it also supports my view of the EUR/AUD.
Now, we'll wait and see.

 

[Metals trader]

Re: Oil

This is nothing I trade, but I do track it just because commodity oil prices or directly correlated to gas pump prices. (At least that is the way it is in the US. I assume there is also a correlation in the UK and other countries.)
Oil prices are headed to the kijun at 76.81 (Pardon these charts. They are very sketchy for oil.) I know here in the US we have had a dip of (in my area of 33 cents per gallon). What we will see in the near future is a 20-cent increase in prices at the pump. If this helps save you some money at the pump, then go fill up, now, because we have bottomed out at the pump for awhile.
BTW, all you need are your oil charts to determine gas prices. This does away with all the politicists and personal interest groups idle, good-for-nothing rhetoric on what they have to say about gas prices.
It is also a game we like to play. Fill up when prices are low, and put off when prices are high. It's kind of the same thing in trading forex. We make pips, and then translate it into its monetary equivalent when we buy low and sell high.

That was one of my trades from y/day 4x. entry just under 71, however i jumped out early today though, bit too early, agree 76 is a good target. here is my chart.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Oil

Excellent MT. I guess it's just the timing of it all.
Dave has a thread at EUR/USD Elliot Wave. His numbers and mine are very close too, yet out methodologies are so different. That's why I have always said that you might have complete different methods of trading, but if you are doing an analysis for entry, it will yield about the same results.

That was one of my trades from y/day 4x. entry just under 71, however i jumped out early today though, bit too early, agree 76 is a good target. here is my chart.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/cad

This is the 4-hour chart. The red line is the kijun at 1.6356. This is a time we do not pay attention to the blue line below the kijun as it is the DS1, and it will change in 2 1/2 hours. The yellow line is the MR1 at 1.6343. That will be a tough area to get around, but if we get a close below 1.6343, then we are in the DOWN. The volume between now and London will not be enough to push it, so look for 0600 EST / 1100GMT. If we are under the latter at that time, we should be on our way.
I've said it before, but the DOWN for this pair is going to be huge. It will have teeth and strong legs. 1.5650 is the objective. 1.5371 is where it should be.

 

[JahDave]

Re: USD/CHF trade

Entry to go short at 1.0358.
Now ,it's time for bed. I'll wake up in the morning and see how things are going.

It looks to me that a high probability reversal level is 1.0178. Does that match up to any of your S&Rs ?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: USD/CHF trade

You probably would never guess this, but I was getting ready to psot this chart, as well as make a point of it in my Weekly Report. The yellow lines are my monthlies, which is where price is headed to, and it is 1.0180. I saw the cirvilinear envelope, as my friend, Daniel sent to me, and rock bottom on the CE before it moves UP is 1.0168.
The next position concerning the Swissy I'm looking for is that entry at the MS2. If it makes some obscene retacement beofer it gets there, then I may consider s short, but it would have to be an ideal entry like I was shooting for today that I never got.
That makes for another point. Sometimes in looking ofr an entry, I may not look for the ideal place for it to pull back to, but for an ideal place with respect to an entry for a trade. That is a big difference. When we start getting close like we are now, it is the only way to do it, when you know the reversal is impending.
Another thing about reversals is that you don't know (At least I don't know.) The exact personality it will take on. Some of the things at this point I know is that there will be lots of R's it will meet with. 1.0930 is still minimum expectations. It's the pattern of the initial move that is ahrd to tell.
I got to laugh, Dave, that we are that close again.

It looks to me that a high probability reversal level is 1.0178. Does that match up to any of your S&Rs ?

 

[JahDave]

Re: USD/CHF trade

You probably would never guess this, but I was getting ready to psot this chart, as well as make a point of it in my Weekly Report. The yellow lines are my monthlies, which is where price is headed to, and it is 1.0180. I saw the cirvilinear envelope, as my friend, Daniel sent to me, and rock bottom on the CE before it moves UP is 1.0168.
The next position concerning the Swissy I'm looking for is that entry at the MS2. If it makes some obscene retacement beofer it gets there, then I may consider s short, but it would have to be an ideal entry like I was shooting for today that I never got.
That makes for another point. Sometimes in looking ofr an entry, I may not look for the ideal place for it to pull back to, but for an ideal place with respect to an entry for a trade. That is a big difference. When we start getting close like we are now, it is the only way to do it, when you know the reversal is impending.
Another thing about reversals is that you don't know (At least I don't know.) The exact personality it will take on. Some of the things at this point I know is that there will be lots of R's it will meet with. 1.0930 is still minimum expectations. It's the pattern of the initial move that is ahrd to tell.
I got to laugh, Dave, that we are that close again.

There are some clues on the personality of a reversal based on previous waves. Since all of the previous waves have been steep then I will venture to say that this next wave up will be steep as well. I am also beginning to see a pattern here between your S&R's and Fibo levels. I don't know how you came up with your formula but your long term S&Rs seem to anticipate Fibo S&Rs on the shorter term. Also I haven't tried this yet, but it will be interesting to see how the longer term fibo levels match up to your longer term S&Rs. I will try to run some in the next several weeks and post them on your thread so that you can compare them.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: USD/CHF trade

Dave, I'll be completely honest here. My S&R's have nothing to do with Fibos. That's why it is rather mind blowing of our results. I had no idea your support point on the reversal was a Fibo point. Check this one out with your Fibos. 1.0930 is the top of the weekly cloud, but 1.0946 is the 76.4% mark of YP--YR1. It will also represent from the low that will be established a complete yearly cycle of a trend. That is naother thing my S&R's do is measure the complete range of a cycle within that period of time.

There are some clues on the personality of a reversal based on previous waves. Since all of the previous waves have been steep then I will venture to say that this next wave up will be steep as well. I am also beginning to see a pattern here between your S&R's and Fibo levels. I don't know how you came up with your formula but your long term S&Rs seem to anticipate Fibo S&Rs on the shorter term. Also I haven't tried this yet, but it will be interesting to see how the longer term fibo levels match up to your longer term S&Rs. I will try to run some in the next several weeks and post them on your thread so that you can compare them.

 

[JahDave]

I'll tell you what I'm doing with very good success. When a pair is getting close to a good reversal spot then I take the trade with a 1/4 size normal lot. It usually goes negative for a little while and if it actually makes it to the exact reversal spot then I double up for a half size normal lot. If it continues to go down then I pick a place to stop based on fibo and EW patterns and take a loss. If it goes in my favor then based on wave structure and new highs then I double or quadruple up and ride that until fibs and waves tell me to get out.

 

[JahDave]

Re: USD/CHF trade

Dave, I'll be completely honest here. My S&R's have nothing to do with Fibos. That's why it is rather mind blowing of our results. I had no idea your support point on the reversal was a Fibo point. Check this one out with your Fibos. 1.0930 is the top of the weekly cloud, but 1.0946 is the 76.4% mark of YP--YR1. It will also represent from the low that will be established a complete yearly cycle of a trend. That is naother thing my S&R's do is measure the complete range of a cycle within that period of time.

It is quite amazing because the levels keep lining up within just a few pips.

 

[4xpipcounter]

That's a good way to do it. My margining is too rigid. It is 10% margining every trade. % of gains is also easy to figure. After all every 100 pips is 10%<>.

I'll tell you what I'm doing with very good success. When a pair is getting close to a good reversal spot then I take the trade with a 1/4 size normal lot. It usually goes negative for a little while and if it actually makes it to the exact reversal spot then I double up for a half size normal lot. If it continues to go down then I pick a place to stop based on fibo and EW patterns and take a loss. If it goes in my favor then based on wave structure and new highs then I double or quadruple up and ride that until fibs and waves tell me to get out.