Preview of the week--082210
What's a Weekly Report without a preview, so here it is. The bold font did not come up as copy-n-pasted it. The original forecast is the 1st paragraph, and how we actually did for the week is the final paragraph. If someone wants the preview, which features the bold print, let me know. WR should be in tommorow:
EUR/USD: The bounce has begin off the top of the daily cloud at 1.2682, and the pump is primed for a move back to 1.2962.
We are higher than we started, but we still need a close above the tenken at 1.2755 to officially begin the journey.
USD/JPY: The pair is headed further DOWN, but is moving too slow to produce a viable trading position. What would be nice is to see a move UP to 87.37. At that point, get ready to pull the short trigger. We will get some action at that point.
We did get the move further DOWN to start the week to the dip at 83.59. We had the radical reversal today.
GBP/USD: This pair can't be trusted. It finally had a comfortable finish under the 1.5584 mark, which means it should be headed to 1.5447. There is still a lot of pressure on the downside, even though I'm still looking for the corrective move to circa 1.5700.
The difference in the views of the euro and cable is the reason euro and its crosses looks like a more sure thing this week than cable.
It finally hit the 1.5447 mark on Tuesday. The low for the week was also established at 1.5373.
USD/CHF: Look for 1.0440 to present a shorting opportunity. The pair is on a slippery slope. 1.0358 should be taken out convincingly this week. After the hopeful correction takes place, we will see a return to 1.0294 this week, and then 1.0231, and a possible shot at 1.0169.
We did get the move to 1.0440 as the peak was 1.0450. 1.0358 was taken out, as we saw the move to 1.0294 on Tuesday, and 1.0231 on Thursday.
EUR/CHF: This pair has me licking my chops. It is also showing that recent Swissy strength is about to be delegated. This pair is off the charts (figure of speech). Current level is 1.3156. Find a place to enter long. 1.3380 is minimum expectation. 1.3792 is the high end. 1.3586 is the center of gravity. Make the center your target, and you should be safe.
I missed on this one. We got the move to start the week, but then it was DOWN since then, but ended the week on a positive note.
AUD/USD: This one is still hot! Current level to .8974 is containment. The pair has its eyes on .8682, and even .8581. There is also a possibility for a move to .8465, but watch out for those lower levels. A strong reversal is impending.
The week start with a move to .8982, and it was DOWN until today. The only problem was .8770 was the established low this week. It turned the corner on the predicted retracement a little quicker than expected.
USD/CAD: I'm expecting a range on this pair between 1.0433—1.0724. If 1.0724, or close to it is hit, then a strong reversal ensues. The exception to said range would happen only at the beginning of the week. We just had a clean bounce off my MR2 at 1.0512, which could lead the pair to MR1 at 1.0395.
We stayed within the range. The dip went to 1.0443 to start the week, and end with the peak at 1.0666.
NZD/USD: .7090 is the MS1. That area should be containment. The pair is ready for its leg DOWN before a strong recovery. In essence, it will make a great short to .6917--.6833, but do not become too infatuated by it.
A sharp spike started the week to .7122, and then the strong reversal carried the pair to .6946. As is evidenced by it not hitting my range on the low, like its cousin the Aussie, it turned the corner quicker than expected, but then I say, “do not become too infatuated by it. “
EUR/GBP:We need either a strong reversal, or this pair is headed to never-never land. Due to the outlook of some of the euro and cable crosses, I would favor a strong reversal. It is hard to see much of a further drop for this pair, provided the scenario is right. Look for move UP to .8297--.8351.
Peak was .8235 for the pair. Things are getting tight for the pair.
EUR/JPY: This leg of the DOWN is exhausted. 108.59 is the MS2, which should be containment. Current level and 112.92 is the broad range channel it should be trapped in this week.
The dip was 105.42. Needless to say, I was wrong. As of this writing price is 108.59—right at MS2.
GBP/JPY: There is no resemblance to its cousin, the EUR/JPY, but the DOWN is coming to an end . The recovery should take us to the MS1 at 133.67, and then back in the DOWN for the possible last leg to 132.52, and then 131.68. There is a possibility for the pair to hit 130.00. If it does, then look out! The UP will turn maniacal. Once the DOWN is finish, R's on the reversal are 132.52, 133.36, 134.20, and 135.04. The 2 in the middle will be the favored targets.
The dip was 128.76, but the reversal was strong. As of this writing the reversal's peak was made at 132.53. The 1st target was hit, but the 2 in the middle would have if the dip didn't go so far.
CHF/JPY: The pair ended the week running into cluster R around the 83.00 level. We should see a move further DOWN, but overall, there are no likely favorable trading scenarios.
The pair stayed under cluster R as the peak was 82.87. The pair was too unpredictable as was implied, and it was a highly volatile week.
GBP/CHF:1.6142 is the 4-hour tenken, which should make for a good short opportunity, for what should be the last leg of this DOWN towards 1.5963. The reversal, as of now, should take us to 1.6159—1.6553, with 1.6356 being a more ideal target.
We got a spike to start the week just on the other side of the tenken at 1.6162. 1.5963 was taken out, as the low was 1.5828. We'll have to wait for the WR to see how far the reversal will take us next week.
EUR/AUD: The pullback at the end of Friday was perfect for this pair. 1.4211 is the MS1. I would look for that to be containment, possibly for the entire week. Look for a place to get in, as this pair is headed to 1.4590—1.5187 on the next leg UP.
The precedent was established at the beginning of the week as the dip was 1.4139, therefore the reversal ended just short of the targeted range at 1.4439.
EUR/CAD: Another test of the top of the daily cloud would be nice for this pair, which is 1.3211. The pair need to get around the TK combo at 1.3370 and 1.3418, respectively, and then 1.3674 is in its sights. I would look for a channel to be maintained between the the of the cloud, and 1.3845. If the latter is hit, then it is an explosive reversal.
We didn't get what would have been nice at 1.3211, and we only got a spike on the other side of the kijun to 1.3518, and then Friday;s strong reversal
AUD/CAD: The recent peak at .9458 could be taken out, but .9495 has blow out implications, but not confirmed yet. For now, things look boring for this pair.
.9495 was the peak for the week. This pair may not be boring next week.
AUD/JPY: A slight correction could be in store, but even current level could be ideal for a short. Caution is advised. There could be a sharp reversal on the horizon. A move to 75.33, and even 74.45. but don't trust it beyond the latter.
The low was 73.56, and we did get the sharp reversal.
NZD/JPY: The DOWN is about exhausted. A mild correction could be imminent, but that could lead into a broad range mild channel. 58.10 is a possibility, but not worth trading
58.48 was the dip, as 58.10 was not realized, which is the reason I was skeptical of this pair. The reversal was also nothing but mild.
CAD/JPY: This pair ended the week by bouncing off the MS2 at 81.33. A retracement to the circa area of the daily tenken at 82.26 to start the week is probably forthcoming. A wide range but mild correction is around the corner, but before that happens, this leg of the DOWN looks solid for 80.82—80.03
81.68 was all we got on the initial move UP. The DOWN was solid, even more solid than expected as the low was 78.41.
AUD/NZD: I originally thought this pair had a chance at 1.1980, but now, no chance. For the time being, it will be stuck in a channel that will range from 1.2441—1.2786.
It was a tight channel between 1.2651 and 1.2517.
GBP/AUD:This pair does not have the obviations its cousin, the EUR/AUD has. The circa area of 1.7303 should be containment on the low end. It will be that circa area we get a bounce, and it could go to 1.7944. OTOH, watch for a sudden u-turn. If it hits 1.7944, or even close, don't think about it. It becomes an excellent short. I don't think that scenario will unfold, as there is nothing obvious about this pair, other than the not so obvious move to the latter mentioned point.
The initial low was 1.7323. The reversal was tight for this pair as the peak was 1.7605. Friday's reversal was no joke, though. It was the type of reversal that would have been expected from 1.7944.
GBP/CAD:This pair is waiting to explode downward, but my timing was wrong on the entry for the short. There is potential for a move upwards to 1.6603. To begin the week it could be priming itself for a corrective pullback, which could mean a dip far enough for maybe a small loss on the pair. This pair may scratch and pull its way higher, but there is still too much of a gravitational pull downward to not expect fireworks once its back in the DOWN
The pair dipped to 1.6243 which would have been a small 40-pip loss if I took it. I was stubborn, and let it go. 1.6469 was the peak and Friday began the fireworks downward.
GBP/NZD: Like its cousin, the EUR/NZD, this pair is strange looking, but more definitive. Strong momentum points UP. A strong bear blowout is still impending. Look for a move this week to 2.1688, and possibly 2.1429. It could even move to 2.1170, but don't trust it. The reversal back in the UP could be vicious. I am currently short this pair and will be content to take it out at 2.1688.
As of this writing the pair established the low at 2.1760. I did take my short out at 2.1775. Still, it was an ugly ride for the week.
NZD/CAD: This pair looks boring for this week, but still will provide a trading opportunity. The MP is .7456. That should be a nice entry for a DOWN that should make it to .7301. Other than that, it looks like a channel with the high end at .7510 and the low end at .7263. Trading the high end looks favorable, if it is the stronger of the moves you are looking for. Also, this week may not provide a choice.
The pair was as boring as predicted. The peak was .7500, 10 points under the high end. That would have also made for the entry as it was also a spike on the other side of the MP. The low for the week was only .7390.
NZD/CHF: This pair has entered the consolidation zone. There are better choices to trade. This really looks like a sleeper.
.7135--.7388 for the week zzzz.
AUD/CHF: A move back to the bottom of the daily cloud at .9256 would make for an ideal entry on a short for this pair. It still has a ticket to keep traveling south. .9071 is a solid target before any substantial recovery will take place. As I peer into the future, containment for any retracement is .9500, and the correction should fall far short of that.
We got that ugly spike because of the Aussie to start the week, so the pair peaked at .9322, then we got the move to .8988. So far, the retracement has taken us to .9261.
CAD/CHF: Swissy has been the strong boy, which is why its crosses has had strong trends. This one is no exception. A bounce back to parity would be nice for the next strong move DOWN. I mild correction lies in the future, but not until .9673--.9458 is hit.
Parity would have been nice, but we only got .9917. .9623 was the dip before the reversal.
EUR/NZD: It's too late for me to say this pair has hit a brick wall at 1.8192 (1.8188, actual peak.). Momentum is slightly UP for the pair, but that could quickly. Also, this pair knows how to move. It is fast! I do favor a strong return to the UP this week, but too many “if's” still revolve around this pair to get too excited or an entry.
My EUR/NZD chart will not come up, so I can't give its preview. Just by the way the euro and kiwi behaved this week. I know there was a strong UP for the pair to start the week, and a massive reversal Friday.
Gold: The bulls have relented the LT control of gold. The peak established 7 weeks ago at 1264.96 should stay in place for quite awhile. At least 1176.98 should be containment on the low end.
1209.90 was the low for the week, so it stayed above containment, as well as under the peak.
