Some of my trades, forecasts

[guptabhk]

Re: Weekly S&R's for Gold

Hi paul
thanks for weeklies and it seems gold start looks towards YR1 so we need to watch out for 1256 $. is the next target if it breaks 1228 $

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Weekly S&R's for Gold

Hari, you're right. As you know, we will get some sputtering around the YR1, but eventually, it gets taken out, as we head to higher heights. Unless there is something we don't know about, the bounce will not be anything close to the one we just endured.
I'm expecting 1228 to be broken. It is just a level to watch out for, depended on your risk toleance, previous entry, etc.
You're welcome. I try to get them to you before we get too deep into the week. I never know them until Sunday at 2300 GMT. I don't do the calucualtions for them, as my software on my charts does it for me automatically.

Hi paul
thanks for weeklies and it seems gold start looks towards YR1 so we need to watch out for 1256 $. is the next target if it breaks 1228 $

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/aud

DEC, thank-you very much!
BTW, I posted a few repsonses on the TRM thread where you were at.
I am thinking about resubscribing to their service. During the interim, feel free if you want to post other charts on here.
I also wanted to make a point concerning the EUR/AUD. I mentioned before this was posted about the wide range the pair has been trading in. That also can be seen by looking at the cirvilinear envelope. Also, notice how it is rubbing along the bottom of the envelope and showing the trend about to change. It would be even more ideal for us to get a continued drop to the -2 sigma, but it is still a big flag that says, "Be ready to go long!"

Paul, here you have the charts

 

[JahDave]

Well Paul, you know by now that I do tend to get in early on things and thanks to your advice I did get out of my long EUR_AUD went back short yesterday. Now I just closed that short and flipped back to long.

 

[4xpipcounter]

DAve, the level it is at now looks like solid support. Breaking through that solid support area is also likelihood. 1.4140 should be containment if it does get through there.
That also matches nicely with the cirvilinear envelope that DEC posted. It still has the appearance of more wide-range consolidative movement. We could use a weekly close above 1.4691. We'd be on our way by then....I think--lol.
Regardless, it looks like you have a winning trade with what's up now.

Well Paul, you know by now that I do tend to get in early on things and thanks to your advice I did get out of my long EUR_AUD went back short yesterday. Now I just closed that short and flipped back to long.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/cad review

It peaked at 1.3422, and it has been DOWN since.

There is some TK conjestion on the daily and weekly charts at 1.3417--55. That area seems ideal for a short for the next leg on the DOWN to the weekly tenken at 1.3103.
NZD/JPY, of late, has been a project for me. This pair could easily become my next one. It appears that a correction is on the menu to start the week, and then the bears could take over the rest of the week.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Usd/cad review

That peak at 1.0437 was broken, but last week's at 1.0493 was not. Peak was actually 1.0463, and the lowest dip so far is 1.0307

A possible temporary top has been formed at 1.0437 (top of the hourly cloud--1.0443). A challenge of that top is now in session. I'm looking to short this pair provided the top is not broken. 1.0279, the MP would be a minimum target.
The outlook for this pair also adds credence to the view for the EUR/CAD as well as the rest of the crosses with the majors. As of now, it appears the USD will only be the 3rd strongest currency next week, as the JPY and the CAD will lead the way.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/jpy review

My MS2 was missed as the dip was 109.07.
I would now look for a break through a very thin daily cloud, and cluster R to be hit at 111.50, which includes the daily tenken and the top of the cloud.

Notice how the candle is now perched comfortably under the hourly cloud with the tenken pointing south right over its head, after a crossover of the kijun. This does not mean we could not get a spike above all this, but a further move south is impending. Look for my MS2 at 108.59 to be hit.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/chf review

The MS1 was hit. We got a strong bounce, but not conventional. The point is a little worn. It was hit on the way DOWN which means it is losing some elasticity.
As I write, price is encamped under the daily cloud. It looks likely price will move back in the cloud, but is hard to predict.

The pair seems poised for an even further drop. I'm looking for a move to at least the MS1 at 1.3369. We will get at least the conventional bounce off that point.
From there, we need an extremely strong move back north in order to invalidate the move we just got out of the daily cloud, if it is going to be chalked up as a mere headfake. 1.3466 is the bottom of the cloud, so we need a move well beyond that point in order to bring a halt to the bears' control.
The likely scenario is a bounce off the aformentioned MS1, and then a another leg DOWN that will result in a move towards the MS2 at 1.3164. That circa area should be containment, because the low at 1.3074 should hold, because of what is implied on the monthly stochastic crossover in OS territory.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/gbp review

I was ready to go long on this one, but the lowest dip was .8171. .8367 will probably be containment on this run UP.

The chart is very clear what the next stop is--.8145, which is the YS2. It will be somewhere between that point and .8075 that we will have another volatile move headed back north. Minimum expectations at .8283 for this DOWN was met, as noted before. Now, we are approaching the volatile reversal area.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Chf/jpy review

82.65 was the peak. Current price action suggests it could be a bumpy ride to 79.27. This does not look a good pair to jump on. Nothing smooth here. A proepr metaphor would be a jeep ride in the Mojave.

82.72 appears to be high end containment. A move back to the YS2 at 79.27 is on the radar.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Nzd/jpy

This week's ride is why I love touting my S&R's. The MS2 was hit perfectly, and then the bounce ensued. Secretly, I was counting on the correction to end up at cluster R at 61.24, but instead the peak, up to this point, has been 61.13.

This is one of the pairs I currently have up on my platform in a short.
The pair is headed to my MS2 at 59.83. We will get a bounce, and most likely, a full monthly recovery. After it is finished should be a deciding point for the pair. I favor the MS2 to eventually get taken out, adn a further move to the YS1 at 45.60. Neither side of the yearlies has been hit so far, and momentum still favors the downside, so as far as the yearlies are concerned, that is the most probable scenario.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Cad/jpy

Sounds like some bad English. TOH, I've had other typos. Just thought I'd let you know I am familiar with the English language. I do get in a hurry and overlook some things
Nuf sed--lol. Peak up to this point is 83.04, so we'll just sit and see what happens.

83.77 is a cluster R event. That could containment any correction. If it does not, then the bottom of the cloud needs to at 84.98. As long as that is the case, then we are headed to the YS1 at 81.13. Momentum favors the downside, so that is favorable. If 84.98 is broken, then it's time to take another look.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Aud/nzd review

Get ready! The pair is currently camped around the YR1. The fun should begin.

This pair is getting really interesting. The pair is currently camped under the weekly kijun and the monthly tenken, and just snuck over the daily 200 MA. What this should add up to is rock solid R and a huge reversal. The pair is within 60 points of the YR1 at 1.2710.
Having said all that, this is the preferred scenario. Price should spike on the other side of tihs massive cluster R, and hit my YR1. That being the case the pair could be in for a monster reversal. The YS1 could be on the radar at 1.2024.
If the preferred sceanrio prevails, then watch the AUD/USD. Considering the NZD/USD still has a ways to go in the DOWN, The aussie will take the jet south.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/nzd review

The pair fell a little short at 2.2242. This could add up to some sideways action before takeoff. In other words, the MR2 still needs to be hit, and the correction from it still needs to be made.

My MR2 is on the radar at 2.2289. We, most likely will get the conventional monthly correction at that point. Afterwards, it will be preapred to put on its track shoes and be ready to test the bottom of the weekly cloud at 2.2527. Because of monthly chart implications, 2.5229 is on the LT radar.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/usd

The bears got halted at 1.2773. MS1 is 1.2779. WR1 could be containment at 1.2919. Other points to look for is 1.2963, which is 38.2% of YS2-YS1, and the MP at 1.3030.

The bears could be temporarily halted at 1.2671, which is the top of the daily cloud. Additionally, YS2 is 1.2640.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/aud review

Wow! I was wrong, or at least I had no idea of the tremendous move south it took today. 1.7050 has to hold, or it is time to reevaluate, when the move UP will begin.

A look at the daily chart shows this pair has gone sideways for the last 21 days. This is about to end. On my LT radar is 2.1654. Now, I have some good news for those that are holding long. The previous peaks at 1.7713 and 1.8139 both get taken out, as we head to the next cluster event at 1.8227. That area should contain the UP for awhile. Eventually, it gets taken out, and then we progress to higher round. There is little doubt that the recent dip at 1.7050 won't be seen for a long time.
Similar to the AUD/NZD, the AUD/USD is taking the jet south by comparison to cable's move the rest of the way.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/aud

Sorry Dave. I didn't mean to show you up. BTW, glad you got out in time.
So far, the dip has taken us to 1.4178. We are getting close to the reversal.
BTW, there is a new thread on this site about Forex TRM. It's already 4 pages long. Me and Tucker stole the show on page 4. There were a lot of posts we saw fit to comment on. This is thanks in large part to DEC, as I followed his posts over to that thread,

Unlike my friend, Dave, at his thread EUR/USD Elliot Wave, I'm having trouble getting around this pair. First of all, my LT projection remains on the radar at 1.7525. For now, it seems a further dip is in store to the 50% mark of YS1--YS2 at 1.4131.
Considering my own methodology is not giving me a clear reversal signal, I'm going to cheat a little to get a conceptual idea of what to expect. I do not subscribe to Forex TRM, but am considering re-subscribing. This is very rough, but as have it figured out, -2 sigma is in the approimate area of the latter mentioned point. -3 sigma is in the approximate area of my 61.8% mark of YS1--YS2 at 1.3986. Either level represents a strong reversal point, and the lower, the better. The amth on that is rough, but in the ballpark. Maybe if someone subscribes to Forex TRM, you can confirm that for me, one way or the other.
To give you an idea of what happens when a 2 or 3 point is hit on the sigma bands. Take a look at the EUR/USD. +3 was hit on it. The GBP/USD just touched +2. EUR/GBP hit +3 and blew up. AUD/USD hit +2, and look what happened last week. The EUR/AUD hit +3 when it peaked at 1.4968, and look where it is now.
Sorry, got to take some more timeout for sigma education, adn the strong coincidental parallel it has with my S&R's. Sigma bands measure the depth or the trend's range within its own decomposition. As far as my S&R's go and the EUR/AUD, we look for a 1,223-pip one-way trip. If that is exceeded, then we begin to look for a blowout, such as what is happening with many of the USD pairs right now. Sigma bands measure the same relativity, but in terms of a deviance from the median point, which for the EUR/AUD is currently circa 1.4468. The farther away from the median it pulls from the median, the more of a gravitational pull there is to get back to the median. Depending on the velocity of the move and the flow of the trend is depended on how dynamic the bands will be. When I refer to that, there is only a small relative deviance in the band movement. Right now, the EUR/AUD's bands are about level, because it has been trapped in a gigantic channel, so it becomes quite dependable as far as the reversal points are concerned, and then where the pair is headed. Unlike my S&R's which measures the yearly trend as 1,223-pip one-way trip, when we measure extremities on the sigma bands (that is from +2 to -2) we have a 1,328-pip one-way trip.
It is up to you to consider all that rhetoric to be enlightening or hogwash, but believe me, it is all relative to what we see will be going on with the pair.
I don't make a dime off of Forex TRM, but it is also another reason it is the only paid software program I highly endorse.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/usd

Did you notice I said "could"? Does that get me off the hook--lol? The move UP today, and then the quick reversal could mean some momentum to get us to 1.5447.

The pair could be at 1.5447 before the day is out. There is not much support on the larger TF's. The only obstacle is a cluster event at 1.5468 on the 4-hour.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/jpy

I would expect this correction to top off at the top of the 4-hour cloud at 85.80, and then reverse to the MS2 at 84.65. From that point, we could see a sharp move UP to the weekly tenken at 88.09.