Bitcoin's March 2024 Rebound: Analyzing the Latest Price Movements
Solid ECN – Bitcoin bounced from its March 2024 low, the $60,700 mark, in yesterday's trading session, Tuesday.
As of this writing, the BTCUSD pair trades at about $67,700, slightly below the Ichimoku Cloud. The 4-hour chart shows that digital gold is trying to stabilize the price above the EMA 50, while the Awesome Oscillator and the RSI have flipped above their signal lines. Therefore, the technical indicators are bullish, but the Bitcoin bulls face the $68,900 barrier to overcome if they wish the price to surge higher.
From a technical standpoint, the downtrend will likely extend if the price stabilizes itself below the EMA 50. This attempt hasn't been achieved so far in today's trading session. Therefore, watch the EMA 50 on the BTCUSD 4-hour chart.
Conversely, the uptrend would continue if bullish traders break the aforementioned barrier. In this scenario, the March higher high, $73,700, would be the initial target for the bull market.
Solid ECN – In today’s trading session, the NZDUSD currency pair has risen from the 0.602 resistance area and is currently testing the 50-day EMA at the 0.609 mark.
The Awesome Oscillator has predicted the uptick in the momentum of the New Zealand dollar, as evidenced by the divergence shown in the 4-hour chart. At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar drives the price towards the 0.606 resistance, which aligns with the lower high of March 4 and the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance.
From a technical perspective, the primary trend remains bearish as long as the pair continues to trade below the descending red trendline. In this scenario, the bear market is likely to persist, and a break below the 23.6% Fibonacci support could accelerate the downtrend.
However, if the NZDUSD stabilizes above the 50% Fibonacci resistance, it would invalidate the bear market.
GBPJPY: Potential Entry Points Amid AO Divergence
Solid ECN – In the current trading session, the GBP has reached a new high of 193.5 against the Japanese Yen. This peak aligns with the upper band of the bullish flag. Notably, the RSI indicator is nearing the overbought zone and is declining below 70 as of writing. Alongside the RSI, the Awesome Oscillator signals a divergence, suggesting a new consolidation phase may be imminent.
Consequently, the GBPJPY price could drop to 191.3, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci support level, before initiating a new bullish wave.
These two levels offer a suitable entry point for participating in the bull market. Please be aware that the bull market will only be invalidated if the price stabilizes below the 50-day EMA.
British Pound Falls Amid Economic Challenges in the UK
Solid ECN – The British pound dropped to about $1.26, marking its lowest point since February 19th. This happened because people in the UK stopped spending more in February, and the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, suggested there might be cuts in interest rates later this year. The Office for National Statistics reported that shopping numbers in the UK didn't change last month.
This was a significant change from January's 3.6% increase and was different from what people thought would happen; they expected a 0.3% drop. At the same time, Bailey did say there were signs that prices were going up less quickly, but he also said it's essential to be sure before making decisions about how to handle the situation.
The Bank of England decided to keep the cost of borrowing money very high, at 5.25%, the highest it's been in 16 years. They made this decision with almost everyone agreeing, even though two people changed their minds about wanting to increase it. This choice was made after seeing that prices weren't rising as fast as before, which hasn't happened in over two years, but prices are still higher than the bank wants.
EURUSD: Navigating the Bear Market and Identifying Entry Points
Solid ECN – The European currency experienced a significant decline against the U.S. Dollar after failing to maintain its position above the Ichimoku cloud on March 21. The pair is currently trading around 1.081 and is nearing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with the 1.079 support level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has room to enter the oversold territory, suggesting that the decline may continue, potentially dipping below the 30 level as the market approaches the Fibonacci level.
From a technical standpoint, we are currently in a bear market. However, the 23.6% Fibonacci support level may provide a good entry point for bullish traders looking to capitalize on a potential pullback. The rebound is anticipated to start around the 1.079 level and extend to 1.083.
We recommend closely monitoring the EURUSD price action, examining candlestick patterns near the Fibonacci level mentioned above, and adjusting trading strategies accordingly.
USDJPY: November 2023 Highs Revisited, Consolidation Ahead?
Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar has reached the November 2023 high against the Japanese Yen, hitting the 151.9 mark for the second time this week. However, this time, a long wick candlestick pattern has emerged on the USDJPY 4-hour chart.
Additionally, the Awesome Oscillator shows a divergence in its bars, which could signal an imminent consolidation phase. This could drive the price down to the 150.2 mark, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, which the 50 EMA supports. These levels provide favorable entry points for retail traders looking to join the primary upward trend.
Conversely, the 151.8 hard resistance level must be breached for the uptrend to continue.
Gold Prices Near Record Highs Amid Rate Cut Expectations
Solid ECN – On Monday, the price of gold remained steady around $2,175, nearing its record high of $2,185 set on March 20th. This stability comes amid increasing bets on the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates. Recently, the Fed kept its forecast, expecting to lower rates three times in 2024, making gold more attractive. Moreover, investors now believe there's over a 70% likelihood that the Fed will cut rates in June, a jump from the 55% probability anticipated before their latest meeting.
This week, all eyes are on important U.S. inflation data and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further indications of future monetary policies. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in Russia and the Middle East support gold's status as a reliable safe-haven asset.
Solid ECN – On Tuesday, the price of gold climbed to a new peak, approximately $2,190 per ounce. This increase was mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar. Investors are anticipating rate cuts, especially with the upcoming US PCE price index report expected this Friday. Following last week's announcement by the Federal Reserve, which kept its prediction of three interest rate cuts for the year, gold became more attractive.
However, February saw better-than-expected US durable goods orders, and various Federal Reserve officials have voiced concerns regarding persistent inflation and a strong economy. Currently, there's a roughly 70% expectation among markets that the Federal Reserve will begin to lower rates in June, a notable increase from the 55% likelihood anticipated before their last meeting.
Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, underscored by the UN Security Council's call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, bolster gold's status as a secure asset.
Silver Prices Hold Steady as Investors Eye Fed Moves
Solid ECN—Silver prices have stabilized above $24.5 per ounce after hitting almost a one-year high on March 20th. This happens while investors wait for speeches from the Federal Reserve's officials and the key PCE inflation data this week. These events will help them predict if the U.S. will start easing its monetary policy soon. Before this, the U.S.'s main financial authority decided not to change its plan for three interest rate decreases in 2024.
This decision made silver and similar assets without yield more attractive. Since their last meeting, the likelihood of reducing interest rates in June has increased to about 70% from the previous 55%. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank was among the first big banks to begin reducing its policies in Europe. Silver continues to be supported as a safeguard against global political tensions, mainly due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Recently, Russia has significantly attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
Solid ECN – By the end of March, the euro held steady at about $1.08 but was on track to lose almost 2% over the quarter compared to the US dollar. This change came after the European Central Bank (ECB) took a more cautious approach. ECB member Piero Cipollone mentioned that the bank is now more hopeful that inflation will drop to its goal of 2% by mid-2025, thanks to slowing wage increases.
This supports the case for reducing interest rates. People are now expecting the ECB to lower rates in June, but there's debate over whether there will be two or three more cuts by the end of the year. On the other hand, the dollar kept up its recent strength. This is because investors are less sure the Federal Reserve will make big cuts to interest rates. Their doubts come from strong economic signs in the US and careful comments from its central bankers.
Solid ECN – In late March, the British pound fell to just above $1.26, its weakest since February 19, and was on track to lose almost 1% over the quarter compared to the US dollar. This happened as investors paid careful attention to cautious words from bank officials. Fed Governor Waller mentioned that the latest inflation figures back the idea that the US Federal Reserve might not soon lower its short-term interest rate goal, though he didn't rule out cuts later in the year.
In Britain, Bank of England's Haskel stated that it's too soon to consider rate cuts, and his colleague Mann warned against expecting too many rate reductions this year. She suggested it's unlikely the UK would reduce rates before the US.
During its March session, the Bank of England kept its interest rates the same. Two members, who had earlier supported increasing rates, now preferred to wait, leading to a softer approach than many had predicted.
AUDUSD's Technical Outlook: Pullback Opportunities in Sight
In today's market, the Australian dollar is losing value compared to the U.S. Dollar. The exchange rate fell below the 0.6503 support level, and it’s currently trading around 0.6493 after a slight recovery from 0.6475.
Despite the bearish trend, the Awesome Oscillator indicates a divergence, suggesting we might soon enter a consolidation phase. This means the AUD/USD pair could temporarily rise, possibly retesting the 0.6503 level and then the 50 EMA, before continuing its downward trajectory.
Technically speaking, the AUD/USD is experiencing a bear market, but there's a chance for a short-term pullback because the Awesome Oscillator is showing divergence. The levels around 0.6503 and 0.6504 could offer good opportunities for those looking to enter the market with this bearish trend in mind.
However, should the pair close above and find stability over the Ichimoku cloud, it would challenge the current bearish outlook and potentially shift the market sentiment.
How to Trade the NZD/USD Pullback: Insights from the Awesome Oscillator
The NZD/USD currency pair is in a bear market, trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. The ADX indicator signifies that the trend is strong on the daily chart as it nears the 40 level. However, the Awesome Oscillator indicates divergence, suggesting that the New Zealand dollar will likely experience a pullback to the 0.602 resistance area.
Technically speaking, the next bearish target could be the 78.2% Fibonacci level, but the decline may continue after a consolidation phase. Therefore, the 0.602 level can provide a decent entry point for joining the sellers in the NZD/USD market.
Navigating the Bear Market: Entry Points for EUR/USD Traders
Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar is stabilizing below the 38.2% Fibonacci level against the European currency today, Monday, April 1st, 2024.
The divergence signaled by the Awesome Oscillator could indicate a potential consolidation phase on the horizon.
From a technical perspective, the primary trend for EUR/USD is bearish. The pair will likely regain some of its losses from last week by rising to the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the EMA 50. This resistance level could provide a suitable entry point for retail traders looking to join the bear market.
Conversely, the bear market should be invalidated if the pair stabilizes above the Ichimoku Cloud.
Solid ECN – On Monday, WTI crude oil prices climbed to about $83.5 a barrel, reaching their highest point in five months. This surge comes as investors eagerly await the upcoming joint ministerial OPEC+ meeting this week. At this meeting, the group plans to examine the current state of the market and how well members are sticking to their production goals.
They are expected to decide to keep their current production levels the same. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned last Friday that Russian oil companies should focus more on reducing their oil production than their exports during the second quarter. This is part of Russia's efforts to align with OPEC+'s production targets.
In addition, the market is also paying close attention to how Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and the peace negotiations in Gaza might affect the oil supply.
On the demand side, there's some positive news: recent data revealed that China's manufacturing sector grew in March for the first time in six months, a development that could mean stronger demand for oil from the world's largest importer of crude oil.
Solid ECN — The GBPUSD traded within a narrow range last week. The ADX indicator, hovering above the 25 level, suggests a new trend is likely on the horizon. Since the U.S. Dollar broke through the 50% Fibonacci resistance level, it appears that the downtrend that began in early March is set to continue.
The next bearish target is expected to be the flag's lower band, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci support level.
Please note that the bear market will be invalidated if the price rises above the Ichimoku Cloud.
Bitcoin Tests the Bullish Trendline for Next Moves
Bitcoin's price dipped to as low as $65,796 in today's trading session against the U.S. dollar. As of this writing, the pair is testing the ascending trendline highlighted in red. The technical indicators are not providing valuable information now, so we focus on price action analysis.
From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish as long as the price stays above the red trendline. However, if bears push and maintain the BTC/USD price below this trendline, the dip could extend further, with the next bearish target potentially being the $68,000 resistance level.
USDCNH Bullish Trend Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar has been in an uptrend since mid-December 2023 against the Chinese Yuan. As of this writing, the USDCNH pair trades at about 7.26, slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci support level and the 7.23 higher low.
The technical indicators are bullish. The RSI hovers above the median line and the Awesome Oscillator bars are green and above the signal line.
From a technical standpoint, the pair is in a bull market, with 7.23 acting as support. Therefore, while the price holds above this level, the next bullish target could be the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.
Conversely, if the USDCNH price dips below the 7.23 support, the decline is likely to extend to the lower band of the bullish flag, which is in conjunction with the Ichimoku Cloud. Please note that the trend remains bullish as long as the pair ranges above the cloud.
The U.S. Dollar trades slightly lower than the 151.9 mark against the Japanese yen in today's trading session. The pair has been ranging below this area for two weeks now, and the trend hasn't developed any significant moves lately.
However, bullish traders are keen to see the pair break above the 151.9 ceiling, which could lead to the U.S. price experiencing another jump against the Japanese currency.
Therefore, from a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish while the pair hovers above the 23.6% Fibonacci support level. The uptrend will continue if the bulls break above the resistance level, the 151.9 mark.
Solid ECN – The Bitcoin price dipped below the $65,796 resistance level below the ascending trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud. Concurrently, the RSI indicator entered the overbought area, and as a result, the BTCUSD pair is testing the previously broken trendline at the time of writing.
From a technical standpoint, the bullish market has paused, and we are entering a consolidation phase likely to extend to the $68,000 resistance area.
