Solid ECN – The Australian dollar has crossed below the 0.648 resistance level against the U.S. Dollar. The pair bounced from the 78.6% Fibonacci support level and is trading at approximately 0.648 at the time of writing. Upon examining the AUDUSD 4-hour chart, we notice that the price is declining within the bearish channel. The technical indicators support the primary trend, with the RSI hovering below 50, and the Awesome Oscillator bars are red and below the signal line.
Currently, the pair is experiencing a pullback from the aforementioned Fibonacci level, which may extend to the 61.8% resistance level, followed by the upper band of the flag.
From a technical standpoint, the AUDUSD is in a bear market, and the downtrend will likely continue. The next target could be 0.6442, the lower low of February.
Conversely, the bear market should be considered invalid if the AUDUSD price rises above 0.6524, above the 50% Fibonacci resistance level.
Solid ECN – The U.S. oil price hovers around $78 in today's trading session. The black gold experienced a dip on March 1st after climbing as high as $80 per barrel. The Ichimoku cloud and the ascending trendline have prevented further declines, yet the bear market has not pushed the price down to as low as $77.7.
Technical indicators match the recent price decrease. The RSI indicator and the Awesome Oscillator have dipped below the signal line. From a technical standpoint, the bearish pressure may increase if the price falls below the ascending trendline, depicted in blue.
Conversely, given the primary bullish trend, if the ascending trendline holds steady, the oil price could see a new bullish wave aiming for March's highs, followed by the $82 mark.
Solid ECN – The USDJPY pair is consolidating in a narrow area between the 149.5 support and 150.8 resistance. The RSI indicator shows divergence, which could be interpreted as a possible trend reversal. However, the decline halted, and the bears could not close below the 149.5 support. Consequently, the price stepped back into the range area.
From a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish as long as the pair trades inside the bullish flag and above the 23.6% Fibonacci support. For the uptrend to continue, the price should stabilize itself above 150.8. In this scenario, the pair will likely target the upper band of the flag.
Going short on USDJPY is not recommended, considering the robust bullish bias on the trend direction. Therefore, waiting for a buying opportunity is less risky than going short.
EURUSD Bulls Eyeing 1.0865 Resistance for Continued Uptrend
The EURUSD currency pair is stabilizing itself outside the previously broken bearish channel. Currently, the pair trades slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level, around 1.086. For the uptrend to continue, the bulls must overcome the 1.0865 barrier. This resistance level has been holding the Euro from further growth against the U.S. Dollar since February 22.
Conversely, if the EURUSD price falls below the 50 EMA, the decline would likely target the 1.0796 support level, the 23.6% Fibonacci mark. If this scenario plays out, the sellers will find themselves in the bearish flag again, and the push will likely go deeper, aiming for the February low.
Solid ECN – The GBPUSD currency pair has climbed above 1.2709, exceeding the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. RSI and Awesome Oscillator support this rise, which suggests continuing the trend. The RSI has room to reach the 70 level, which can be interpreted as the market not being overbought yet. This indicates that the pound sterling will likely target the bullish channel's upper band against the U.S. dollar.
Please note that the bull market will remain valid if the pair trades above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
AUDUSD Momentum: Indicators Point Towards Continued Uptrend
The Awesome Oscillator shows optimistic signs of a trend reversal, having flipped above the signal line. Additionally, the RSI hovers above 50, another cue for continuing the uptick momentum from 0.6476. This minor area supports the bullish momentum. It is worth noting that the price needs to stay above this level for further growth. The bull market will likely aim for the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level in this scenario.
Conversely, the bullish outlook should be invalidated if the AUDUSD price dips below 0.6511.
Euro Hits New High Amid ECB Meeting Anticipation and Inflation Data Insights
Solid ECN – The euro rose sharply to $1.085, reaching its highest point since February 1. This spike was due to investors focusing on the European Central Bank's (ECB) next meeting about monetary policy later this week. They are looking for new information on the ECB's plans. Although the bank is expected to keep interest rates high, market participants are eager to hear any updates to economic forecasts and hints from ECB President Christine Lagarde about when borrowing costs might start to decrease.
Recent data showed that inflation in the Eurozone dropped again last month, making it the second month of decline, with a rate of 2.6% in February—a bit higher than the predicted 2.5%. The fundamental inflation rate also fell to 3.1%, which was also above the expected 2.9%. This information suggests that the ECB is careful before deciding to reduce monetary policy measures.
EURUSD Strategy: Bullish Channel and Fibonacci Support Insights
Solid ECN—The EURUSD currency pair started the week slightly below Friday's closing price. At the time of writing, it is trading at about 1.094.
While the technical indicators provide mixed signals, the pair remains within the bullish channel and tested the 50% Fibonacci support on Friday. The primary trend is bullish, supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci level. As the trend suggests a bullish market, we recommend going long. If the price consolidates near the EMA 50, this could provide an excellent opportunity to join the bull market.
Conversely, the bullish outlook should be invalidated if the EURUSD price drops below 38.2%.
Australian Dollar Hits 7-Week High as Rate Cut Expectations Grow
Solid ECN – The value of the Australian dollar has risen above $0.66, marking its highest level in more than seven weeks. This increase is primarily due to the belief that the US Federal Reserve might lower interest rates before other leading global banks. During his US Senate testimony, Fed Chair Powell hinted that the Fed might ease its tight monetary policy sooner if inflation decreases. On the home front, recent figures revealed that Australia's economic growth in the last quarter was less than anticipated.
This has led to increased speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might begin to cut rates this year. Market predictions suggest an almost 90% likelihood of the RBA reducing its cash rate by August, with expectations of a total ease of 45 basis points throughout the year. Following the disappointing GDP figures, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia has maintained its prediction of 75 basis points in rate cuts for the year.
Solid ECN — The AUDUSD formed a long-wick candlestick pattern during Friday's trading session. As of this writing, the price tested the 38.2% Fibonacci support and is trading at about 0.661. Interestingly, the Awesome Oscillator has flipped above the signal line on the daily chart, which can be interpreted as a sign that the bull market may resume.
From a technical standpoint, the 0.6594 level supports the bull market. As long as the price remains above it, the next bullish target could be the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at the 0.6703 mark.
Conversely, if the price dips below the 38.2% level, the decline could extend to the EMA 50, followed by the 23.6% level.
Solid ECN – The NZDUSD currency pair formed a long-wick candlestick pattern in Friday's trading session, which suggests a possible trend reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. The technical indicators still signal a bull market; as we know, all technical indicators are inherently lagging.
From a technical standpoint, if the price stabilizes below the 38.2% Fibonacci support following Friday's wick, it could extend to 23.6%. Otherwise, the bull market will continue, and the next target could be the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
Navigating the USDJPY Oversold Market: Strategy for Professional Trader
Solid ECN – The RSI has been deep in the oversold area since March 8th. Despite the bulls resisting the extreme selling pressure, the uptick momentum seems weak, even with the RSI's position below 30.
Professional traders typically avoid short positions in an oversold market; therefore, waiting for the market to consolidate and stabilize itself is recommended. If the consolidation phase reaches the upper band of the bearish flag, this level, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, can offer a better price for joining the bear market.
Fortunately, the Awesome Oscillator bars have turned green, which could be interpreted as the start of the consolidation phase. At the moment, wise traders are waiting for USDJPY to form new higher lows and are adjusting their next moves accordingly.
EURUSD's Next Move: Navigating Above 1.091 Key Support
Solid ECN – The EURUSD formed a hammer candlestick pattern on the 4-hour chart, clinging to the 50% Fibonacci support level at the 1.0914 mark. As of writing, the pair is trading at about 1.093, slightly above the resistance. While the European currency gains ground against the U.S. dollar within the bullish channel, the technical indicators do not offer significant insights.
From a technical standpoint, the next target would be 1.1 if the price maintains its position above 50%.
Conversely, if the price dips below the 50% level, it will likely decline to the 38.2% level, coinciding with the lower band of the channel.
Solid ECN – The pound sterling has pulled back from a significant level, the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance against the U.S. Dollar, resulting in the pair trading below 1.2827. Concurrently, the RSI indicator has retreated from the overbought area and is heading toward the 50 level.
This downshift could extend to the EMA 50, which aligns with the rising trendline.
Traders should pay close attention to the 61.8% Fibonacci support, which could present buying opportunities. If this level holds, the GBPUSD price will likely rise and retest the 1.2893 resistance.
However, if the rising trendline breaks, it's a clear sign that the bullish scenario should be invalidated. In this case, the consolidation phase will likely extend to the 1.2599 mark, the 50% Fibonacci support.
Therefore, we suggest observing the market's behavior around the EMA 50.
Solid ECN – The seller of the AUDUSD pair formed a long wick candlestick pattern on the 4-hour chart, close to the 50% Fibonacci resistance at the 0.666 mark. Consequently, the pair dipped below 38.2% and is testing the EMA 50 as of writing.
The technical indicators signal a bear market, with the RSI closing below 50 and the Awesome Oscillator bars being red and declining.
From a technical standpoint, the AUDUSD pair has created a new higher high since the beginning of the year, and this is the first time the value went as high as 0.666. Therefore, the Australian currency is bullish against the U.S. dollar. That said, if the EMA 50 can withstand today's selling pressure, the market will likely aim for the upper band of the rising flag, which is close to the 61.8% resistance level.
Conversely, if the AUDUSD dips below the EMA 50, the next support level is 23.6%. Traders should watch the EMA 50 closely and adjust their strategy accordingly.
NZDUSD's Critical Levels: EMA 50 as the Decisive Barrier
Solid ECN – The NZDUSD currency pair failed to stabilize the price above the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, and consequently, it dipped below the descending trendline depicted in blue. The EMA 50 is currently preventing the price from dipping further. If this price breaches the 50-exponential moving average, the next target will likely be 0.6068, followed by the February low.
The 0.6215 mark is the pivotal point between a bull and bear market. If the New Zealand dollar breaks this resistance against the U.S. Dollar, the previously mentioned forecast should be invalidated, and traders must reevaluate the market accordingly.
Canadian Dollar Dynamics: Economic Insights and Monetary Policy Updates
Solid ECN – The Canadian dollar is currently valued at around 1.35 per USD, returning from a one-month peak of 1.345 USD recorded on March 7. This drop is primarily due to the stability and strength of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming March 19-20 meeting, with predictions leaning towards a rate cut in June. This decision comes after the consumer price index indicated a slight increase beyond expectations. Specifically, the overall inflation rate went up to 3.2%, surpassing forecasts, while the core inflation rate decreased slightly to 3.8% from 3.9%, still over the expected 3.7%.
In February, the unemployment rate in Canada increased to 5.8%, aligning with analysts' predictions. The country also witnessed an addition of 42,000 jobs, exceeding the anticipated numbers and showcasing a solid job market. Consequently, this strength allows the Bank of Canada to keep its monetary policy tight, helping curb further drops in the value of the Canadian dollar, also known as the loonie.
Significant Silver Price Dip from Three-Year High
Solid ECN – Silver's price fell to approximately $24 per ounce, a slight decrease from the three-year peak of $24.4 per ounce in the prior session. This change occurred as investors closely monitored the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates following the latest U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) figures.
These figures, which showed that the annual and core consumer inflation rates were slightly higher than expected, have significantly influenced the market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by June. Earlier, officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hinted at potential rate decreases in 2024, which further increased the attractiveness of safe-haven assets like silver.
EURUSD's Bullish Momentum: Indicators and Support Levels
The EURUSD currency pair consolidates its recent gains above the 50% Fibonacci support level, the 1.091 mark, where it formed a hammer candlestick pattern.
As of writing, the Euro trades at about 1.092, with the RSI indicator hovering above 50, which can be interpreted as a signal for the continuation of the uptrend. The EMA 50 and the lower band of the bullish channel support the current uptick momentum. That said, the bull market is likely to extend and test 1.098 as its first barrier.
Conversely, the 38.2% level divides the bull market from the bear market. Therefore, if the price dips below this level, the bull market should be invalidated.
Solid ECN – The pound sterling is coming back from the 50 EMA, and as of writing, it is trading at about 1.279. The ascending trendline depicted in red provides support alongside the EMA 50. Interestingly, The RSI indicator has returned above the signal line, indicating that the uptrend will likely resume.
From a technical standpoint, as long as GBPUSD trades above the 1.2745 mark, the bull market will remain valid and will likely aim for the 50% Fibonacci resistance, followed by the 61.8%.
Conversely, a dip below the EMA 50 would invalidate the bullish market.
