The U.S. Dollar has recovered from 146.4 and tested the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at the 148.1 mark. The EMA 50 and the Ichimoku cloud reinforce this resistance level, making it more robust.
The RSI and the AO indicators signal a bull market; however, the ADX indicates a slowdown in market momentum, which could be interpreted as a halt in the recent uptick bias.
From a technical standpoint, we are in a bear market, and the current bullish wave could be a consolidation phase. Therefore, the market will likely decline if the price remains below the EMA 50. A break below the ascending trendline, depicted in red, can trigger selling pressures.
Conversely, if the USDJPY bulls can cross the EMA 50 and stabilize the price above it, the bear market should be invalidated, and traders should reevaluate the market.
Solid ECN – As expected, the Euro rose in the last day's trading session against the U.S. Dollar. The EMA 50 and the Ichimoku cloud maintained the bull market. However, we noticed a long wick candlestick pattern formed in today's trading session, which could be construed as the beginning of a consolidation phase since it is a higher low.
From a technical standpoint, the market is bullish, but it is best to wait for the consolidation phase to be over. Please note that the EURUSD price should exceed the trendline in black for the uptrend to resume. In this scenario, the bullish market will be triggered and will likely aim for the 1.1 mark.
The lower band of the channel plays a pivotal role between the bull and bear markets. For the uptrend to be invalidated, the price must dip below the 38.2% Fibonacci support.
GBPUSD's Next Move: A Crucial Phase Beyond Fibonacci Resistance
Solid ECN – As anticipated, the pound sterling is on an upward trajectory against the U.S. Dollar, and this uptrend persists. The RSI indicator remains above 50, while the ADX signal, hovering around the 20 level, does not indicate significant volatility. Apparently, the market awaits for the price to surpass 50% Fibonacci resistance before adding new bets on the current trend.
From a technical perspective, the bulls have already disregarded the previous day's high, and momentum is likely to continue rising after a minor struggle with the aforementioned Fibonacci level. If this scenario comes into play, the 78.6% level would be the next target.
Please note, dear traders, the bull market is robust, and for it to be invalidated, the price must dip below the Ichimoku cloud.
Australian Dollar Outlook: Bullish Trends and EMA 50 Support
Solid ECN – The Australian dollar has stabilized above the 38.2% Fibonacci support level and the previously broken descending channel. Interestingly, the ADX indicator is making a return above the 25 level, interpreted as a sign that a new trend is on the horizon. This signal from the ADX aligns with the RSI, where it hovers above the 50 level.
From a technical standpoint, the EMA 50 supports the bullish bias on the currency pair. If the price stays above it, the next target for buyers would be the upper band of the bullish channel, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.
Conversely, the EMA 50 acts as the critical pivot between the bull and bear markets. The uptrend should be considered invalidated if the U.S. Dollar pushes the Australian dollar below the mentioned moving average.
Analyzing NZDUSD: The Battle within the Bearish Channel
In this evening's trading session, the U.S. Dollar is pushing the price in its favor against New Zealand's currency. The technical indicators give mixed signals; therefore, we rely on the price action and the support and resistance areas.
From a technical standpoint, the pair trades within a narrow, bearish channel, which can be interpreted as a sideways market. The level at 0.613 acts as support; if this level is breached, the NZDUSD will likely dip to the next support, which is located at about 0.6111.
Conversely, the price must surpass 0.6182 for the uptrend to continue. In this case, March's higher high would be retested.
Analyzing the Potential Reversal in EURUSD Trends
The U.S. Dollar has returned from the 1.096 resistance level against the European currency. This ceiling is supported by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the pair failed to surpass it on March 8.
As of writing, the EURUSD pair trades at about 1.088, close to the 1.086 support and slightly below the lower band of the bullish channel. Interestingly, this price is below the Ichimoku cloud and the EMA 50, which could be interpreted as a potential trend reversal.
From a technical standpoint, the bullish trend is invalidated since the price dipped below the cloud. However, the bears are required to close below the 38.2% Fibonacci level to trigger the main selling pressure. Failure to push the price below this level will likely lead to the price returning above the EMA 50, indicating that the uptrend may continue.
Conclusion:
For the bearish trend to resume, the price must close below the 1.086 level. Going short in the current market situation is risky because the bearish breakout lacks valid confirmation.
Indicators Point to a New Bearish Trend in GBPUSD
Solid ECN – The Pound sterling lost ground against the U.S. Dollar in yesterday's trading session. As depicted in the GBPUSD 4-hour chart, the pair dipped below the EMA 50 and is currently testing it as a resistance level. Interestingly, technical indicators signal a bearish outlook, with the RSI hovering below 50 and the Awesome Oscillator showing red bars. Notably, the ADX currently hovers above the 25 level, which can be interpreted as the beginning of a new trend.
From a technical standpoint, the bears have broken below the bullish channel in red and are currently stabilizing the price at about 1.276. Therefore, as long as the price trades below the cloud, the secondary trend would be bearish, with the bears aiming for the 1.270 resistance, followed by 1.266.
The bearish technical analysis should be invalidated if the Pound sterling rises higher than the March 14 high, the 1.282 mark.
Gold Price Stability Amid Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculation
Solid ECN – On Friday, the price of gold remained stable, hovering around $2,160 per ounce. This marks its first decrease after three weeks of gains. The change comes amid uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. This uncertainty is due to unexpectedly high Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, coupled with a decrease in initial jobless claims.
These factors made investors rethink their previous expectations for more accessible monetary policies. Consequently, the likelihood of the Fed reducing rates in June has fallen to about 60% from the 74% estimated just last week. This shift has made gold, which does not yield interest, less attractive to investors.
However, gold's price is still near record highs, as it serves as a protective investment against inflation and increasing geopolitical tensions, especially after Russia decides to position its tactical nuclear weapons closer to NATO territories.
Solid ECN – Pound Sterling demonstrated its resilience at the start of the Monday trading session. It opened with a slight gap against the U.S. Dollar but quickly recovered. It is currently holding strong at around 1.273.
The pair trades above the bullish trend line, as indicated in blue on the GBPUSD chart. Therefore, the primary trend remains bullish. However, the price has fallen from the 1.289 high and is now experiencing a downtrend within the bearish channel, marked in red.
The data from the chart suggests that the current downward momentum may represent a consolidation phase, setting the stage for a potential bullish comeback. The EMA 50, aligning with the trend line and the resistance level supported by the Ichimoku cloud, could provide a solid support for buyers to initiate this optimistic turn of events.
Please note that the price must break out of the bearish channel for the uptrend to resume. In this scenario, the rise could continue and target the high from February as its first significant milestone.
Oil Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Indicators
Solid ECN – WTI crude futures increased to over $81 per barrel on Monday, building on the previous week's growth as ongoing geopolitical tensions fuel worries about oil supply. In the past week, Ukraine intensified its drone attacks on Russian oil facilities, causing a shutdown of approximately 7% of Russia's refining capabilities in the first quarter, as per a Reuters report.
Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced intentions to expand into the Gaza Strip's Rafah region, diminishing the likelihood of reaching a peace deal. Additionally, this week, investors are keenly observing the decisions on monetary policy by leading central banks for signs that might indicate when interest rate reductions will occur. Last week saw a near 4% rise in oil prices following an optimistic demand forecast by the International Energy Agency, which also anticipates a minor shortfall in supply for the year.
AUDUSD's Resilience: A Test Against Ichimoku Cloud Resistance
Solid ECN – The Australian dollar rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci support level against the U.S. dollar in today's trading session. The pair is now testing the Ichimoku cloud as resistance, close to the EMA 50. The Awesome Oscillator bars are green, while the RSI remains below 50, giving mixed signals. Meanwhile, the ADX indicator has dropped to level 20, which can be interpreted as a slowdown in the trend.
From a technical standpoint, the bounce could extend to the upper band of the bearish flag depicted in red. However, as long as the AUDUSD price remains within the flag, the 23.6% Fibonacci level will likely be the next target.
The bear market should be invalidated if the price stabilizes itself above the cloud.
USDJPY at the Crossroads of Overbought Conditions
Solid ECN – The Japanese currency has again become bearish against the U.S. Dollar. As shown on the USDJPY 4-hour chart, the American currency has risen above the Ichimoku cloud and is trading at about 149.1 as of this writing.
Currently, the pair is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci support while the RSI indicator is about to enter the overbought area. Therefore, it is not recommended to go long on the U.S. currency in a saturated market; it is better to wait for the pair to form new higher lows and lower highs.
That said, with the Awesome Oscillator's red bars, there is a high chance for the market to drop to the ascending trendline in red. This level of support can provide a decent entry point to join the bull market.
Conversely, the bull market should be invalidated if the price falls below the 148.8 mark.
Rising Russian Crude Oil Prices and Global Impacts
Solid ECN – Russian Urals crude oil prices have recently climbed above $77 a barrel, approaching the high levels seen in October, and are following the general upward trend of global oil prices. Meanwhile, China is on track to bring in a historically high volume of Russian oil this month, although the quantity heading to India has fallen, as reported by Bloomberg.
Despite being targeted by recent attacks, Russia aims to increase its oil exports via western ports, thanks to extra shipments from companies like Rosneft and Tatneft. In December 2022, a price limit of $60 per barrel was set on Russian oil by the European Union, the G7 nations, and Australia. This measure aims to cut down the funding Russia receives for military operations in Ukraine.
WTI Crude Oil Prices Soar Amid Global Supply and Demand Dynamics
Solid ECN – WTI crude oil prices remained above $82 per barrel on Tuesday, close to their peak since the start of November, boosted by concerns about supply. The reasons include Ukraine's recent drone attacks on three of Russia's oil refineries, which represent over 10% of Russia's oil refining capability. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Iraq has said it will cut back its oil exports to 3.3 million barrels per day in the upcoming months to make up for going over its OPEC+ limit since January.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia's oil exports dropped for the second month in a row, reaching 6.297 million barrels per day in January, down slightly from December. On the other side, demand appears strong, with China, a major oil buyer, showing solid growth in industrial output and retail sales. The overall global demand for oil is also expected to remain robust this year.
The U.S. Dollar broke out from the wedge pattern in today's trading session against the Swiss franc and is testing the 0.889 barrier as of writing.
The Awesome Oscillator signals divergence, which could be interpreted as a sign that a consolidation phase is likely on the way. Therefore, the price might dip to 0.885 before a new bullish wave begins. Interestingly, the RSI indicator is nearing the overbought zone, signaling the same as the AO.
From a technical standpoint, the ascending trendline in red supports the bull market. As long as the pair trades above this level, the primary trend will remain an uptrend. In this scenario, the market will likely surpass the 0.889 resistance and aim for the next target, the 0.895 mark.
P.S. For the uptrend to resume, the market must pass and stabilize the price above the 0.889 mark.
BTCUSD Hits April Low: What's Next for Bitcoin Prices?
Solid ECN – Bitcoin flipped below the Ichimoku cloud in last week's trading session. The decline continued this week, and today BTCUSD hit a new low for April, trading below the $64,400 mark. Interestingly, the RSI and the Awesome Oscillator also point to a bear market. In addition to RSI and Ao, the ADX climbs to 40, signifying that the downtrend is strengthening.
From a technical standpoint, the EMA 50 and the upper band of the bearish channel, marked in red, act as resistance levels. If Bitcoin's price remains below $67,000, the next target is likely the $60,000 mark.
Conversely, for the uptrend to resume, the price must cross above the EMA 50 and maintain its position above it.
Noteworthy
It's important to note that the primary market is bullish, and the current downward momentum is considered a consolidation phase. During this phase, major players collect profits by sweeping the floor from retail traders.
Euro Drops as ECB Considers June Rate Cut Amid Slow Growth
Solid ECN – The euro fell toward the $1.08 mark, its lowest since March 1st, as investors processed reports of slower wage increases and cautious remarks from some European Central Bank (ECB) officials. They also looked forward to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated on Tuesday that the bank might consider lowering interest rates in June, highlighting the need for more information before changing policies.
ECB President Christine Lagarde mentioned possibly lowering rates earlier in the month due to falling inflation. The ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, suggested a rate cut could come in the second quarter. Significantly, central bank leaders from Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Greece, and Slovakia, among the ECB's 26 Governing Council members, supported a decision in June.
EURUSD Hits New Low: Analyzing the Latest Bearish Wave
Solid ECN – In today's trading session, the European currency dipped toward the 1.08 mark, its lowest since March 1st, against the U.S. Dollar. The drop was expected from a technical perspective because the bears formed an inverted hammer clinging to the EMA 50 yesterday. The failed attempt to cross above the moving average has led the EURUSD price to experience a new bearish wave.
As of this writing, the pair is testing the lower band of the bearish flag. The RSI indicator hovers in the oversold area; therefore, the market might make corrections below the EMA 50 before a new wave emerges.
From a technical standpoint, the primary market is dominated by bears if the price is kept below the cloud. Due to the RSI being in the oversold zone, we suggest waiting for the price to show some correction before joining the bear market. With the price below the mentioned resistance areas, the 23.6% Fibonacci support could be the next target.
The price must flip and stabilize itself above the cloud for the bear market to be deemed invalid.
Solid ECN – The New Zealand dollar fell below $0.605, reaching close to its four-month low following the Australian dollar's downturn. This happened after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided not to change interest rates, a decision many anticipated. They also removed their previous caution against ruling out future rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Kiwi dollar faced additional pressure due to the upcoming policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve. There's the worry that persistently high inflation in the US might postpone any cuts in Fed rates.
Furthermore, within New Zealand, the expectation is growing that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may reduce its policy rates starting in August as the rise in prices begins to slow down. As investors wait, they are particularly interested in the upcoming report on the country's economic growth, hoping it will offer more clarity.
Euro Rises as Central Banks Discuss Future Rate Cuts
On Wednesday, the euro climbed to $1.09, bouncing back from its lowest point in two weeks after the Federal Reserve decided not to change its plans for interest rate reductions in 2024. The Fed did not alter interest rates in March, meeting expectations, and hinted at three possible decreases later in the year. Also, the ECB's President Lagarde emphasized in an earlier meeting that they would look at reducing rates in June.
She added a note of caution, stating that the European Central Bank wouldn't lock itself into a set number of cuts, as future decisions will be based on the latest data. Central bank leaders from five countries—Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Greece, and Slovakia—have expressed their support for action in June.
