Seeking consistency

[Leia]

watch list for week commencing October 1st

Only 9 of the FX pairs I look at are aligned in the same direction on the daily and 4 hour time frames at the present time
I have therefore enhanced the format of this forecast post to include the level at which I am watching for price action to print a 'trigger candle', the level at which I would doubt the direction 'indicated' by my two time frame moving averages and the three potential target areas I would split any trade entry into
If that is a bit confusing, hopefully the list below will clarify:

short AUD USD 1.04 20 (1.05 20) 1.03 30, 1.01 70, 1.00 70
long NZD USD 82 60 ( 81 75) 83 50, 84 75, 85 70
long GOLD 1750 ( 1735) 1784, 1790, 2000
long GBP CAD 1.58 70 (1.58 40) 1.59 80, 1.60 60, 1.62 00
long GBP AUD 1.55 50 (1.54 60) 1.56 30, 1.57 20, 1.59 00
short AUD JPY 81.10 ( 81.50) 80.25, 79.50, 78.50
long NZD CAD 81 00 ( 80 20) 82 10, 82 70, 84 00
short CAD CHF 97 75 ( 96 20) 94 70, 93 70, 92 20
short AUD NZD need to wait for a swing low to form on the 4 hour chart, before being able to draw a fib re-tracement to set a 50/61.8% pull back and former support level that may act as resistance on the 4 hour time frame to be able to calculate a potential 'area of interest'

 

[Leia]

Re: GBP USD counter trend (short )

I am not prepared to let a trade which has moved +93pips in my direction close out as a loser, but am OK if I get stopped out for NIL over the weekend

Unbelievable luck, price touched 1.61 08 overnight in the Asian session thus closing out part 1 of this trade and validating my move of all of the positions stops to breakeven, in anticipation of price achieving R1

 

[Leia]

nzd usd long

daily & 4 hour long
price retraced into last weeks 4H up move & found 'dynamic' support from 4H 20ema

recent highs tested many times and printed daily rejection of higher prices candles, looking for at least another test, to achieve part 1 profit and potential break through this time

stop to breakeven at .83 05 (should order be triggered)

order long @ .82 85 stop @ 82 65 (risk -20pips), three targets
target 1 .83 50
target 2 .84 75
target 3 .85 70

as R1 is .83 05, before all targets, I will trail stop behind any 4 h swing lows until stops are taken out or targets achieved

 

[Leia]

Re: nzd usd long

order long @ .82 85 stop @ 82 65 (risk -20pips), three targets
target 1 .83 50
target 2 .84 75
target 3 .85 70

as R1 is .83 05, before all targets, I will trail stop behind any 4 h swing lows until stops are taken out or targets achieved

trade opened but I missed opportunity to move stops when price reached .83 20 (+35) and all 3 positions were closed out for -20

 

[Leia]

Re: GBP USD counter trend (short )

Unbelievable luck, price touched 1.61 08 overnight in the Asian session thus closing out part 1 of this trade and validating my move of all of the positions stops to breakeven, in anticipation of price achieving R1

stop hit (for NIL) on second two positions

 

[Leia]

Re: watch list for week commencing October 1st

:

short AUD USD 1.04 20 (1.05 20) 1.03 30, 1.01 70, 1.00 70
trigger at 1.04 00 stop 1.03 50, price saw 1.01 75:clap:
long NZD USD 82 60 ( 81 75) 83 50, 84 75, 85 70
trigger at .82 85 stop .82 65 saw .83 35
long GOLD 1750 ( 1735) 1784, 1790, 2000
trigger at 1770, stop 1760 saw 1795
long GBP CAD 1.58 70 (1.58 40) 1.59 80, 1.60 60, 1.62 00
trigger 1.58 75 stop 1.58 25 price didn't make R1, so loser
long GBP AUD 1.55 50 (1.54 60) 1.56 30, 1.57 20, 1.59 00
trigger 1.55 75 atop 1. 55 30, price didn't make R1, so loser
short AUD JPY 81.10 ( 81.50) 80.25, 79.50, 78.50
trigger 81 25 stop 81.70, saw 79.80
long NZD CAD 81 00 ( 80 20) 82 10, 82 70, 84 00
trigger .80 95, stop 80 75, saw 81 04
short CAD CHF 97 75 ( 96 20) 94 70, 93 70, 92 20
no trigger
short AUD NZD need to wait for a swing low
no decent retrace to look for trigger'

As I compiled this weeks 'watch list' I reviewed this posting, as I didn't enter any orders through the week.
With the benefit of hindsight, there were a lot of valid trade signals, many of which (if traded) would have been at least R1 and a few would have been losers.
I have added into the original text (hope this works) the outcome, had I have taken the triggers

 

[Leia]

EUR JPY long

my strategy full set up requirement:
daily & four hourly trend indicators in alignment (long)
price has retraced to the 50 / 61.8 fib level of the previous (weeks) up swing
the last candle printed was a 'hammer' formation, providing a 'trigger'

Order placed long @ 101.50 with a stop at 101.10 (risk -40pips), split equally into three parts
part 1 target = R1 +40 pips = 101.90
part 2 target = previous swing high @ 102.80 (+130pips R3)
part 3 trailing stop (behind fur hourly swing highs)

as always, if the trade should open and achieve target 1 I will move my stops on the other twoparts to break even

 

[Leia]

EUR CAD long

set up similar to EUR JPY above, indicators are long, price has retraced and printed a trigger candle on the 4 hour time frame

entry 1.27 00 stop1.26 60 (risk -40pips)
target 1 = 40 pips @ 1.27 40
target 2 previous swing high at 1.28 00
target 3 trailing stop

 

[Leia]

EUR USD long

and another EUR pair showing the same trade order criteria

long at 1.29 75, stop at 1.29 35 (risk -40 pips)
target 1 = R1 = 40pips at 1.30 15
target 2 = recent swing high at 1.30 70 (+95 pips R2)
target 3 = trailing stop

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR CAD long

set up similar to EUR JPY above, indicators are long, price has retraced and printed a trigger candle on the 4 hour time frame

entry 1.27 00 stop1.26 60 (risk -40pips)
target 1 = 40 pips @ 1.27 40
target 2 previous swing high at 1.28 00
target 3 trailing stop

trigger candle invalidated (support broken) order removed

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR JPY long

Order placed long @ 101.50 with a stop at 101.10 (risk -40pips), split equally into three parts
part 1 target = R1 +40 pips = 101.90
part 2 target = previous swing high @ 102.80 (+130pips R3)
part 3 trailing stop (behind fur hourly swing highs)

only achieve +15 pips. before strong reversal and break out of the overnight (Asian) range to hit stops for -40 pips

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR USD long

and another EUR pair showing the same trade order criteria

long at 1.29 75, stop at 1.29 35 (risk -40 pips)
target 1 = R1 = 40pips at 1.30 15
target 2 = recent swing high at 1.30 70 (+95 pips R2)
target 3 = trailing stop

saw +33 pips (7 away from target 1) before sharp reversal taking all three positions out

 

[Leia]

USD CAD short

Both my daily and 4 hour indicators are short
Price has retraced 50/61.8% of the previous (weeks) 4 hourly down swing
The last 4 hourly candle of the Asian / overnight session is bearish and a trigger candle (bearish engulfing type formation)

Entry 0.98 05, stop @ 0.98 35 (risk -30pips) three targets
target 1 = R1 =30 pips = .97 75
target 2 recent swing low .97 35 (+70pips)
target 3 next swing low .96 35 (+170pips)

Should my order be opened, move in my favour and hit target 1, the stop on the other two positions will be moved to break even and trailed at 4 hour swing highs until stopped out or target levels achieved

 

[Leia]

aud cad short

both time frames are short
daily trigger candle at 50% retrace of last 4H swing (confusing I know, the level is acceptable based on the 4 hourly fib re-tracement, the trigger candle is on the daily time-frame)

Order placed (and now opened, this post is a little late) @ 1.00 50 with a stop at the high of the trigger candle @ 1.01 00 (risk -50pips)
part 1 target R1 +5 pips at 1.00 00
part 2 @ swing low 0.99 30 (+120pips, R2)
part 3 @ weekly low 0.96 50
as always, should price touch target 1 the stops on parts 2 & 3 will be moved to a break even level and then trailed behind 4hourly swing highs until taken out or respective targets achieved
Should this be the start of a longer term move downward, I will of course look to re-enter, even if part3 is still open

 

[Leia]

watch list for week commencing October 15th

Only 8 pairs are presently aligned on the 4 hour and daily time-frames using my indicators
short USD CHF 93.20 (94.40) 93.00, 92.70, 90.50
short USD CAD 98.20 (98.40) 98.00, 97.35, 96.30
long EUR GBP 80.20 (80.00) 80.40, 81.00, 82.20
long EUR NZD 1.57 00 (1.56 50) 1.57 50, 1.59 70, 1.63 50
long GBP NZD 1.95 70 (1.95 25) 1.96 00, 1.97 90, 2.00 00
long CAD JPY 79.90 (79.35) 80.35, 81.40, 83.00
short AUD CAD (see previous post)
short NZD CHF 76.90 (77.00) 76.70, 75.80, 71.00

 

[Leia]

watch list for week commencing October 8th

I didn't post this last week end (I had written it out) there were 18 pairs to watch, most of which didn't offer any triggers at the target levels, or produced triggers which were invalidated prior to order opening, or did open and failed

A brief summary of some of the pairs I had down to watch:
EUR USD, EUR CAD & EUR JPY trades were posted
NZD and AUD vs CHF did post valid triggers, but I failed to take them (and the trades subsequently failed)

USD CAD offered a trigger of sorts at a level of interest, which I have taken, but has not yet been opened

GBP NZD printed three triggers, all of which I have failed to act on, although the pair remains on my watch list for the up coming week

 

[Leia]

Re: aud cad short

Order placed (and now opened, this post is a little late) @ 1.00 50 with a stop at the high of the trigger candle @ 1.01 00 (risk -50pips)
part 1 target R1 +5 pips at 1.00 00
part 2 @ swing low 0.99 30 (+120pips, R2)
part 3 @ weekly low 0.96 50

Trade opened and failed for full loss (-50pips) on each third of the position
I am confident that it was a set up fully aligned with my strategy which I correctly executed.
However the result was that it lost
Had I not had my hard stop in place I would now be sitting on a much larger loss as price has moved over 150pips against my set up!

 

[Leia]

Re: USD CAD short

Entry 0.98 05, stop @ 0.98 35 (risk -30pips) three targets
target 1 = R1 =30 pips = .97 75
target 2 recent swing low .97 35 (+70pips)
target 3 next swing low .96 35 (+170pips)
Should my order be opened, move in my favour and hit target 1, the stop on the other two positions will be moved to break even and trailed at 4 hour swing highs until stopped out or target levels achieved

Order opened and target 1 achieved (+30pips, first third)
However price then reversed and took out the second two positions for a full loss (making this trade an over all loser of -30pips (1 X +30)-(2 X -30)) purely down to poor trade management, failing to follow the plan, as stated for this trade in the original post. As I should have moved my stop to breakeven on the second two positions and thus achieved breakeven exits for those parts and a net +30 pips on the first third, making this a small winner (net +10pips)
Appalling elementary trade mis-management allowing a winning trade to become a loser
Never the less, my hard stop did prevent an even worse situation arising, as price has moved 150pips against my opening position

 

[Leia]

Re: watch list for week commencing October 15th

Only 8 pairs are presently aligned on the 4 hour and daily time-frames using my indicators
short USD CHF 93.20 (94.40) 93.00, 92.70, 90.50
worked (potential +100pips), failed to take trigger presented

short USD CAD 98.20 (98.40) 98.00, 97.35, 96.30
traded (see above, re poor trade management resulting in unnecessary loss)

long EUR GBP 80.20 (80.00) 80.40, 81.00, 82.20
worked (potential +70pips), failed to take trigger presented

long EUR NZD 1.57 00 (1.56 50) 1.57 50, 1.59 70, 1.63 50
worked, no trigger presented

long GBP NZD 1.95 70 (1.95 25) 1.96 00, 1.97 90, 2.00 00
failed (not taken)

long CAD JPY 79.90 (79.35) 80.35, 81.40, 83.00
no trigger presented

short AUD CAD (see previous post)
failed (order and trade management per plan)

short NZD CHF 76.90 (77.00) 76.70, 75.80, 71.00
worked (+100pips) failed to take trigger

I have inserted against each original entry the resultant position.
The mix of potential results clearly shows the high expectation rate of my strategy, if I actually traded every set up as it appeared and managed each order according to my rules!

 

[Leia]

watch list for week commencing October 22nd

I have 19 pairs on next weeks watch list (indicators consistent on Daily and 4 hour time frames at the moment)

short USD CHF 93 05 (93 65) 92 15, 90 50, 89 30
long EUR USD 1.29 90 (1.28 90) 1.31 35, 1.32 75, 1.35 00
long GBP USD 1.59 80 (1.59 10) 1.61 70, 1.63 00, 1.66 00
long USD JPY 79.00 (78.60) 79.65, 80.60
long NZD USD 81 50 (81 10) 81 10, 82 20, 83 50
all of the above are indicating US dollar weakness and 'risk' on, which is far from the fundamental sentiment at the present time
long EUR GBP 80 95 (80 40) 81 40, 81 60, 82 20
long EUR NZD 1.59 35 (1.59 00) 1.60 50, 1.63 00, 1.65 00 (at level now, need trigger)
long EUR AUD 1.26 15 (1.25 90) 1.27 30, 1.28 20, 1.30 00
long EUR JPY 1.02 20 (1.02 40) 1.04 10, 1.06 50
long EUR CAD - need a swing high on the 4hour chart
long GBP CHF - need a swing high on the 4hour chart
long GBP CAD 1.58 10 ( 1.57 30) 1.59 45, 1.59 85, 1.60 80
long NZD JPY 64 50 (63 95) 65 20, 69 00
long GBP JPY 1.26 50 ( 1.25 50) 1.28 20, 1.30 00, 1.31 70
long CHF JPY 84.80 (84.20) 86.10, 87.60
long NZD CAD - need a swing high on the 4hour chart
short CAD CHF - need a swing low on the 4hour chart
short NZD CHF 76 00 (76 60) 75 30, 74 70, 73 00
short AUD CHF 96 35 (96 60) 95 00, 94 40, 93 30