Trending pairs to watch week commencing 10th Sept
I have just reviewed my charts and found that 20 of them have their trends on the Daily and 4 hour time-frames in alignment (per my trend definition based on moving average indicators). Thus they are my 'watch list' (some actually have orders pending from Friday and I have an AUD CAD short position open) for next week. Many (especially EUR related) are a long time from being trade-able as they need to post a swing high and re-trace on the 4 hour time frame first. If they keep moving from their present levels I have missed my entrys (which is annoying on both cable and EUR as I was well positioned earlier last week, but just missed order trigger entry on cable and was stopped out for break even on EUR. That however, is trading with the benefit of hindsight. I would rather be out of these markets wishing that I was in them, than in them wishing I was out
)
long EUR USD
long GBP USD
short USD CAD
short USD CHF
long EUR GOLD
long GOLD
long SILVER
long EUR GBP
long EUR NZD
long EUR AUD
long EUR JPY
long GBP AUD
long GBP NZD high risk as weekly close below weekly S/R potential reversal point
long CAD JPY
long GBP JPY
long CHF JPY
short NZD CHF
short AUD CAD
short AUD CHF
short AUD NZD
I have just reviewed my charts and found that 20 of them have their trends on the Daily and 4 hour time-frames in alignment (per my trend definition based on moving average indicators). Thus they are my 'watch list' (some actually have orders pending from Friday and I have an AUD CAD short position open) for next week. Many (especially EUR related) are a long time from being trade-able as they need to post a swing high and re-trace on the 4 hour time frame first. If they keep moving from their present levels I have missed my entrys (which is annoying on both cable and EUR as I was well positioned earlier last week, but just missed order trigger entry on cable and was stopped out for break even on EUR. That however, is trading with the benefit of hindsight. I would rather be out of these markets wishing that I was in them, than in them wishing I was out
)long EUR USD
long GBP USD
short USD CAD
short USD CHF
long EUR GOLD
long GOLD
long SILVER
long EUR GBP
long EUR NZD
long EUR AUD
long EUR JPY
long GBP AUD
long GBP NZD high risk as weekly close below weekly S/R potential reversal point
long CAD JPY
long GBP JPY
long CHF JPY
short NZD CHF
short AUD CAD
short AUD CHF
short AUD NZD
Re: aud cad short
part 1 closed, others have stop moved to Break Even, having seen price @ R1 (+20 pips) @ 1.01 40
part 1 closed, others have stop moved to Break Even, having seen price @ R1 (+20 pips) @ 1.01 40
Attachments
Re: aud nzd short trigger
I have removed orders as price has seen 1.27 44 (almost at target 2)
Re: aud cad short
trailing stop moved to 4 hour swing high (minor, blue arrow) at 1.01 30 on parts 2 & 3
Attachments
Re: aud cad short
part 1 = +20
part 2 = +30
part 3 = +30
total = +80 / 3 parts = 26 pips R = 1.3
stop hit
part 1 = +20
part 2 = +30
part 3 = +30
total = +80 / 3 parts = 26 pips R = 1.3
EUR CAD long
Daily and 4 hour trends are indicating long
price has retraced 50/61.8% of the previous 4 hour up swing and the last 4 hour candle is a 'trigger' (hammer) type, indicating rejection of lower prices at this point in time
Order to enter long @ 1.24 50, stop 1.24 15 (risk = -35pips)
part 1 = 1.25 40
part 2 = 1.27 40
part 3 = trailing stop
Daily and 4 hour trends are indicating long
price has retraced 50/61.8% of the previous 4 hour up swing and the last 4 hour candle is a 'trigger' (hammer) type, indicating rejection of lower prices at this point in time
Order to enter long @ 1.24 50, stop 1.24 15 (risk = -35pips)
part 1 = 1.25 40
part 2 = 1.27 40
part 3 = trailing stop
Attachments
Re: EUR CAD long
orders removed (price has moved too far away (over R1) from entry already
orders removed (price has moved too far away (over R1) from entry already
Attachments
Attachments
Re: eur usd long targets
or perhaps 1.33 00 to 1.35 00 (no triggers to trade short, just a relentless devaluation of the USD)
or perhaps 1.33 00 to 1.35 00 (no triggers to trade short, just a relentless devaluation of the USD)
Attachments
Trending pairs to watch week commencing 17th Sept
Summer is over
I notice that significantly more of my charts have aligned indicator direction this week, perhaps due to the end of the summer holidays for the market, or perhaps because of the fundamentals (devaluation of the USD until unemployment there holds below 8%)
What ever the reason(s) I am interested in the technical analysis and my daily and 4 hour moving average indicators are presently aligned on 20 pairs:
long EUR USD 1.29 40 as last week (no decent pull back to enter last week)
long GBP USD 1 61 10 same as EUR
short USD CAD 0.98 00 same as EUR
short USD CHF 0.94 00 same as EUR
long NZD USD @ weekly resistance, potential counter trend short to 82 30 or 81 00
long EUR GOLD
short USD JPY
long GOLD as last week, there was no trigger long last week
long SILVER as last week, I failed to take the trigger @ 33.40, watch 33.60 now
long EUR GBP as EUR, watch for 0.80 30
long EUR AUD above 1.22 25
long EUR JPY watch for 101.00
long EUR CAD
short GBP CHF
long CAD JPY as last week, I didn't take the deeper than 61.8% trigger watch 80.15
long NZD JPY watch for 64.10
long GBP JPY as CAD JPY
long CHF JPY as last week, I failed to take trigger last week. careful now as @ weekly resistance level
short CAD CHF
short AUD NZD as last week EUR, watch for 1.27 35 - care as at weekly support
attached are the two triggers which I failed to take (silver would now be at break even or better if I had chosen to enter at 50% of the trigger as its so big compared to those around it and CHF JPY is at about R3, probably having closed parts 1 and 2, with a trailing stop for part 3). I am not doing this because I 'would have, should have, could have' taken these trades as, with the benefit of hindsight, they would both have been winners, but because they demonstrate that my strategy (trading plan) is valid - providing I trade with it!
Summer is over
I notice that significantly more of my charts have aligned indicator direction this week, perhaps due to the end of the summer holidays for the market, or perhaps because of the fundamentals (devaluation of the USD until unemployment there holds below 8%)
What ever the reason(s) I am interested in the technical analysis and my daily and 4 hour moving average indicators are presently aligned on 20 pairs:
long EUR USD 1.29 40 as last week (no decent pull back to enter last week)
long GBP USD 1 61 10 same as EUR
short USD CAD 0.98 00 same as EUR
short USD CHF 0.94 00 same as EUR
long NZD USD @ weekly resistance, potential counter trend short to 82 30 or 81 00
long EUR GOLD
short USD JPY
long GOLD as last week, there was no trigger long last week
long SILVER as last week, I failed to take the trigger @ 33.40, watch 33.60 now
long EUR GBP as EUR, watch for 0.80 30
long EUR AUD above 1.22 25
long EUR JPY watch for 101.00
long EUR CAD
short GBP CHF
long CAD JPY as last week, I didn't take the deeper than 61.8% trigger watch 80.15
long NZD JPY watch for 64.10
long GBP JPY as CAD JPY
long CHF JPY as last week, I failed to take trigger last week. careful now as @ weekly resistance level
short CAD CHF
short AUD NZD as last week EUR, watch for 1.27 35 - care as at weekly support
attached are the two triggers which I failed to take (silver would now be at break even or better if I had chosen to enter at 50% of the trigger as its so big compared to those around it and CHF JPY is at about R3, probably having closed parts 1 and 2, with a trailing stop for part 3). I am not doing this because I 'would have, should have, could have' taken these trades as, with the benefit of hindsight, they would both have been winners, but because they demonstrate that my strategy (trading plan) is valid - providing I trade with it!
Attachments
NZD and AUD USD counter trend orders
Both the daily and 4 hour trends are long
However both pairs posted daily trigger (shooting star type) candles on Friday, indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
As noted in my weekly look ahead post, NZD USD is at previous weekly resistance, which may add weight to taking a short position (AUD is at previous daily resistance)
I have entered orders to go short both of these pairs, against the prevailing trends on both of my time-frames, as both are far enough away from their 4 hourly 20ema's (elastic band theory, of re-tracement to the moving average when over extended) to allow me to achieve risk/reward of 1:1 (which is where I take a third of the risk off and move my stop to a breakeven position on the other two thirds). This is also at a higher price than I would be seeking a trigger 'long' to trade with the trend.
Orders are
NZD
entry 0.83 00, stop at 0.83 55 (risk -55pips), split into three parts
target 1 = R1 = 0.82 45
target 2 = recent daily resistance, potential support @ 0.81 50
target 3 trailing stop
AUD
entry 50% back into Fridays daily candle @ 1.05 70, stop 1.06 25 (risk -55 pips)
target 1 = R 1 = 1.05 15
target 2 = 1.04 00
target 3 trailing stop
Both the daily and 4 hour trends are long
However both pairs posted daily trigger (shooting star type) candles on Friday, indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
As noted in my weekly look ahead post, NZD USD is at previous weekly resistance, which may add weight to taking a short position (AUD is at previous daily resistance)
I have entered orders to go short both of these pairs, against the prevailing trends on both of my time-frames, as both are far enough away from their 4 hourly 20ema's (elastic band theory, of re-tracement to the moving average when over extended) to allow me to achieve risk/reward of 1:1 (which is where I take a third of the risk off and move my stop to a breakeven position on the other two thirds). This is also at a higher price than I would be seeking a trigger 'long' to trade with the trend.
Orders are
NZD
entry 0.83 00, stop at 0.83 55 (risk -55pips), split into three parts
target 1 = R1 = 0.82 45
target 2 = recent daily resistance, potential support @ 0.81 50
target 3 trailing stop
AUD
entry 50% back into Fridays daily candle @ 1.05 70, stop 1.06 25 (risk -55 pips)
target 1 = R 1 = 1.05 15
target 2 = 1.04 00
target 3 trailing stop
Attachments
Re: NZD and AUD USD counter trend orders
NZD order opened and t1 achieved
I missed opportunity to move stop to break even on other two positions which are still open
AUD order removed as price moved down very quickly
NZD order opened and t1 achieved
I missed opportunity to move stop to break even on other two positions which are still open
watch list for week commencing September 24th
Pairs aligned between the daily and 4 hourly indicators at the moment are
long EUR USD 1.29 40
long GBP USD 1.62 00, however at weekly swing (2012 high), daily rejection bar printed Friday for counter trend trade
short USD CHF 0.93 40
long USD NZD 0.82 30 (I have counter trend short trades open)
long GOLD 1751, but at weekly resistance daily has printed rejection candle, possible counter trend entry
long SILVER 33.80
long EUR AUD 123.75
long EUR JPY 100.60
long EUR CAD 126.30
long GPB CAD 157.70
long NZD JPY 64.10
long GBP JPY 126.20
long CHF JPY 83.30
short CAD CHF 0.95 76 / 0.96 10
short AUD CHF 0.97 65
short AUD NZD 1.26 50
Pairs aligned between the daily and 4 hourly indicators at the moment are
long EUR USD 1.29 40
long GBP USD 1.62 00, however at weekly swing (2012 high), daily rejection bar printed Friday for counter trend trade
short USD CHF 0.93 40
long USD NZD 0.82 30 (I have counter trend short trades open)
long GOLD 1751, but at weekly resistance daily has printed rejection candle, possible counter trend entry
long SILVER 33.80
long EUR AUD 123.75
long EUR JPY 100.60
long EUR CAD 126.30
long GPB CAD 157.70
long NZD JPY 64.10
long GBP JPY 126.20
long CHF JPY 83.30
short CAD CHF 0.95 76 / 0.96 10
short AUD CHF 0.97 65
short AUD NZD 1.26 50
GBP USD counter trend (short )
Both my daily and 4 hour time frame indicators are long
however price is quite a long way away from the daily moving averages and may retrace toward them (elastic band effect)
The daily candle formation on Friday was a 'shooting star' shape indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
The level rejected is also a significant weekly Swing High from which the 2012 high was made and price subsequently retraced considerably
I have therefore placed a counter trend order (short) 'playing' the daily candle
entry 1.62 10, stop 1.63 10 (risk -100 pips), split into three parts
part 1 target @ R1 = 1.61 10
part 2 target = 1.59 20 (prev. daily resistance, potential support
part 3 target = 1.54 00 (weekly swing Low) but if the order opens and achieves 1.61 10, I will trail the stops for both parts 2 and 3, rather than see the strong uptrend return and take the positions out for breakeven)
Both my daily and 4 hour time frame indicators are long
however price is quite a long way away from the daily moving averages and may retrace toward them (elastic band effect)
The daily candle formation on Friday was a 'shooting star' shape indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
The level rejected is also a significant weekly Swing High from which the 2012 high was made and price subsequently retraced considerably
I have therefore placed a counter trend order (short) 'playing' the daily candle
entry 1.62 10, stop 1.63 10 (risk -100 pips), split into three parts
part 1 target @ R1 = 1.61 10
part 2 target = 1.59 20 (prev. daily resistance, potential support
part 3 target = 1.54 00 (weekly swing Low) but if the order opens and achieves 1.61 10, I will trail the stops for both parts 2 and 3, rather than see the strong uptrend return and take the positions out for breakeven)
Attachments
AUD USD short
my daily trend indicator is short (marginally) but at 50 / 61.8% retracement of the previous up move and printed a daily candle yesterday indicating rejection of LOWER prices at this time
however
my 4 hour time frame is indicating short and the last 4 hour canlde printed is indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
I have therefore placed an order SHORT, which if it achieves yesterday low and makes a 'double bottom' for the next move higher, I will still take part of my position as profit and the rest at break even
The order is short at 1.03 90 with a stop above the candle high at 1.04 25 (risk -35)
I have split the order into three parts
part 1 profit target is 1.03 55 (reward =1, 35 pips)
part 2 at the previous daily swing low of 1.01 90
part 3 will trail behind 4 hour swing highs
As always, should the trade open and move in my favour by 35 pips I will close part 1 and move my stops down to a break even level on the remaining two parts
my daily trend indicator is short (marginally) but at 50 / 61.8% retracement of the previous up move and printed a daily candle yesterday indicating rejection of LOWER prices at this time
however
my 4 hour time frame is indicating short and the last 4 hour canlde printed is indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
I have therefore placed an order SHORT, which if it achieves yesterday low and makes a 'double bottom' for the next move higher, I will still take part of my position as profit and the rest at break even
The order is short at 1.03 90 with a stop above the candle high at 1.04 25 (risk -35)
I have split the order into three parts
part 1 profit target is 1.03 55 (reward =1, 35 pips)
part 2 at the previous daily swing low of 1.01 90
part 3 will trail behind 4 hour swing highs
As always, should the trade open and move in my favour by 35 pips I will close part 1 and move my stops down to a break even level on the remaining two parts
Attachments
Re: NZD and AUD USD counter trend orders
stop hit for at break even on second two parts, best was 0.81 80 (+120pips)
stop hit for at break even on second two parts, best was 0.81 80 (+120pips)
Attachments
Re: GBP USD counter trend (short )
daily trend is still long, 4 hour has crossed short, but price action is unconvincing. I have therefore moved my stop on all three positions to breakeven, despite not achieving R1 (+100 pips), as price did get to 1.61 17 on Friday, which is +93 pips.
I am not prepared to let a trade which has moved +93pips in my direction close out as a loser, but am OK if I get stopped out for NIL over the weekend
daily trend is still long, 4 hour has crossed short, but price action is unconvincing. I have therefore moved my stop on all three positions to breakeven, despite not achieving R1 (+100 pips), as price did get to 1.61 17 on Friday, which is +93 pips.
I am not prepared to let a trade which has moved +93pips in my direction close out as a loser, but am OK if I get stopped out for NIL over the weekend
