Re: USD JPY short
doesn't even look like the same chart today (pleased I didn't take the short)
doesn't even look like the same chart today (pleased I didn't take the short)
Re: Gbp (cad & chf)
GBP CHF long stop hit for NIL
trade set up and management were as plan, but price only just broke R1 (+60 pips - see fib drawn from 'trigger' candle) before retracing and stopping out. As my indicators are still long, I am watching for a 4H 'double bottom' to enter long again for this pair
GBP CHF long stop hit for NIL
trade set up and management were as plan, but price only just broke R1 (+60 pips - see fib drawn from 'trigger' candle) before retracing and stopping out. As my indicators are still long, I am watching for a 4H 'double bottom' to enter long again for this pair
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GBP USD long
both my time-frames are indicating long
price is retracing on the 4H chart into the 50 / 61.8% zone of the last 4H up swing
watching for a 4H trigger candle long
there is very significant daily and weekly resistance just above, so it is unlikely (but not impossible) that there will be sufficient risk / reward to enter the market long at these levels, even if a 4H 'trigger' should form some time today
both my time-frames are indicating long
price is retracing on the 4H chart into the 50 / 61.8% zone of the last 4H up swing
watching for a 4H trigger candle long
there is very significant daily and weekly resistance just above, so it is unlikely (but not impossible) that there will be sufficient risk / reward to enter the market long at these levels, even if a 4H 'trigger' should form some time today
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AUD and NZD JPY pairs long
both antipodean pairs indicators are long on the daily & 4 hour charts
I am watching for a retrace of the previous 4 hour (this weeks) up move for a trigger candle to join this Yen weakness against either or both of AUD & NZD
both antipodean pairs indicators are long on the daily & 4 hour charts
I am watching for a retrace of the previous 4 hour (this weeks) up move for a trigger candle to join this Yen weakness against either or both of AUD & NZD
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Re: GBP USD long
Order at 50% of last 4 hour 'trigger' candle at 1.57 00 with a stop at 1.56 80 (-20pips) and an initial target of 1.57 70 (reward +70) R-3
Order at 50% of last 4 hour 'trigger' candle at 1.57 00 with a stop at 1.56 80 (-20pips) and an initial target of 1.57 70 (reward +70) R-3
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Re: AUD and NZD JPY pairs long
Order at 50% of last 4 hour 'trigger' (not as perfect as gbp usd) candle at 82.90 with a stop at 82.70 (-20pips risk) and initial target is 84.50 (reward 160 pips) R=8
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13 on my watch list for week commencing Aug 20th
I have been quite prolific with posting over the last week, but not quite so with trading.
I traded GBP CAD and GBP CHF which both saw gains of more than the amount of risk, before turning and hitting my stop at Break Even
My EUR USD order was not opened (it made the move in the desired direction without me), but ironically had I been in it I would also have achieved only Break Even
On Friday I placed orders on GBP USD, which was a loser and AUD JPY, which is still open, but in draw down and will most likely be taken out for a second loss on the opening volatility over night (the Asian session)
So, looking ahead, the following crosses are (at present) aligned in direction per my strategy and therefore candidates for 'trigger candles' on the daily or 4 hourly charts at some point next week:
long silver (but this is at the top of the present daily sideways range)
short EUR GBP (.78 80 / .80 00)
short EUR CAD (1.22 200) (but this is presently coming up off the all time low)
long GBP CHF (1.52 50) (almost duplicate of last week)
short GBP CAD (1.55 65) (as GPB CHF above)
long CAD JPY (79.65)
long AUD JPY (82.80)
long NZD JPY (63.80)
short NZD CAD (.80 20)
long CAD CHF (.98 20)
short EUR USD (1.23 50)
short USD CAD (.99 10)
long USD GBP (1.56 80) (as posted this week, into strong weekly resistance)
Fundamentally, AUD interest rates were cut last week, which could mean any long AUD trade is doomed to failure. Also, the political situation in the Euro zone has gone quiet, meaning any poor data out of the USA could negate any sound technical EUR short trades. The operative words being 'could' as I don't concern myself with any fundamental data when calculating trade orders (but perhaps I should, hence the post)
I have been quite prolific with posting over the last week, but not quite so with trading.
I traded GBP CAD and GBP CHF which both saw gains of more than the amount of risk, before turning and hitting my stop at Break Even
My EUR USD order was not opened (it made the move in the desired direction without me), but ironically had I been in it I would also have achieved only Break Even
On Friday I placed orders on GBP USD, which was a loser and AUD JPY, which is still open, but in draw down and will most likely be taken out for a second loss on the opening volatility over night (the Asian session)
So, looking ahead, the following crosses are (at present) aligned in direction per my strategy and therefore candidates for 'trigger candles' on the daily or 4 hourly charts at some point next week:
long silver (but this is at the top of the present daily sideways range)
short EUR GBP (.78 80 / .80 00)
short EUR CAD (1.22 200) (but this is presently coming up off the all time low)
long GBP CHF (1.52 50) (almost duplicate of last week)
short GBP CAD (1.55 65) (as GPB CHF above)
long CAD JPY (79.65)
long AUD JPY (82.80)
long NZD JPY (63.80)
short NZD CAD (.80 20)
long CAD CHF (.98 20)
short EUR USD (1.23 50)
short USD CAD (.99 10)
long USD GBP (1.56 80) (as posted this week, into strong weekly resistance)
Fundamentally, AUD interest rates were cut last week, which could mean any long AUD trade is doomed to failure. Also, the political situation in the Euro zone has gone quiet, meaning any poor data out of the USA could negate any sound technical EUR short trades. The operative words being 'could' as I don't concern myself with any fundamental data when calculating trade orders (but perhaps I should, hence the post)
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Re: AUD and NZD JPY pairs long
Price has touched 83.10 overnight, so I have now moved my stop up to break even at 82.90 from 82.70, in line with my rules. Will the London open stop me out for NIL?
Price has touched 83.10 overnight, so I have now moved my stop up to break even at 82.90 from 82.70, in line with my rules. Will the London open stop me out for NIL?
Re: AUD and NZD JPY pairs long
No, the London session got up to 83.28 (over 2X risk) but the New York open push back down to take the trade out for NIL
No, the London session got up to 83.28 (over 2X risk) but the New York open push back down to take the trade out for NIL
Re: 13 on my watch list for week commencing Aug 20th
Conversely the indicies have not been able to close at their daily highs, having posted shooting star counter trade short signals
A lot of my watch list above have been negated today as the 4 hourly trend indicators have crossed over to be contrary to the daily indicators
Silver has continued higher today (without giving me trigger candle to enter a trade order) also gold and oil as well as the euro have printed bullish daily candles breaking the top of their summer ranges and holding above this previous resistance for the New York close
Conversely the indicies have not been able to close at their daily highs, having posted shooting star counter trade short signals
A lot of my watch list above have been negated today as the 4 hourly trend indicators have crossed over to be contrary to the daily indicators
GBP USD long (4h trigger)
Daily and 4 hour trends are long
Price has printed a 4H 'trigger candle' at previous 4H resistance, perhaps now support
The candle has also closed above the 4H 20ema (red), which may be acting as dynamic support
It is not a very substantial re-tracement of the past up wave, but that may be due to the sudden very substantial change in risk sentiment during the past few days)
It is also the end of the week (going into a long weekend for the UK)
Daily and 4 hour trends are long
Price has printed a 4H 'trigger candle' at previous 4H resistance, perhaps now support
The candle has also closed above the 4H 20ema (red), which may be acting as dynamic support
It is not a very substantial re-tracement of the past up wave, but that may be due to the sudden very substantial change in risk sentiment during the past few days)
It is also the end of the week (going into a long weekend for the UK)
10 trending markets for week commencing August 27th
I have reviewed my daily and 4 hourly charts and the following are aligned in trend direction (20ema and 50sma both going in the same direction and arranged in the same way on both time-frames)
I am therefore putting them into my 'watch list' for re-tracements against the dominant trend direction and printing of 'set up candles' which offer entry back into the main trend (close to the levels stated below), assuming a reasonable risk / reward ratio is available
short USD CHF 0.97 00
long EUR USD 1.24 50
long NZD USD 0.81 00
long GBP USD 1.57 50
short USD JPY 79.00
short AUD CAD 1.04 00
long GBP JPY 123.25
long EUR GOLD 1,314
long GOLD 1,630
long SILVER 29.90
I have reviewed my daily and 4 hourly charts and the following are aligned in trend direction (20ema and 50sma both going in the same direction and arranged in the same way on both time-frames)
I am therefore putting them into my 'watch list' for re-tracements against the dominant trend direction and printing of 'set up candles' which offer entry back into the main trend (close to the levels stated below), assuming a reasonable risk / reward ratio is available
short USD CHF 0.97 00
long EUR USD 1.24 50
long NZD USD 0.81 00
long GBP USD 1.57 50
short USD JPY 79.00
short AUD CAD 1.04 00
long GBP JPY 123.25
long EUR GOLD 1,314
long GOLD 1,630
long SILVER 29.90
Silver counter trend signal
As posted I am watching for long triggers on the Silver market, as both my time-frame indicators are long
The silver chart has printed daily and a couple of 4 hour rejection of higher price candles (shooting star shaped)
This offers a risk/reward ratio of 3, which is acceptable, should price fall to around the level I would be interested in buying (going long)
I have placed a counter trend trade to enter the silver market short at 30.90 with a stop above yesterdays high at 31.25 (risk - 35pips) and a target of the previous weekly resistance at 29.90 (reward +100pips) R=3
As posted I am watching for long triggers on the Silver market, as both my time-frame indicators are long
The silver chart has printed daily and a couple of 4 hour rejection of higher price candles (shooting star shaped)
This offers a risk/reward ratio of 3, which is acceptable, should price fall to around the level I would be interested in buying (going long)
I have placed a counter trend trade to enter the silver market short at 30.90 with a stop above yesterdays high at 31.25 (risk - 35pips) and a target of the previous weekly resistance at 29.90 (reward +100pips) R=3
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EUR USD 4H trigger long
Both daily and 4 hour time-frame indicators are long
Price has retraced slightly into the previous 4H up swing and printed a trigger candle indicating rejection of lower prices at this time
I was looking for a pull back (to around 1.24 50), so this set up reasonably aligns with my weekly 'watch list'
Order placed at 1 .24 90 with a stop at the candle low of 1. 24 60 (risk -30pips) with an initial (half trade) target of the previous daily swing high at 1.25 80 (+ 90 pips) R = 3.
I have also a secondary target for the other half of the position at 1. 26 80 (+190pips)
(should both positions reach their targets, the reward equivalent is +140pips R=4.6)
As always, if this trade should be triggered open and move into profit by 30pips (the initial risk) to 1.25 20 I will move both stops to breakeven
If this market is truly in a string up-trend and hit my initial target, I will look for opportunities to add a further part position if price action provides suitable opportunity
Both daily and 4 hour time-frame indicators are long
Price has retraced slightly into the previous 4H up swing and printed a trigger candle indicating rejection of lower prices at this time
I was looking for a pull back (to around 1.24 50), so this set up reasonably aligns with my weekly 'watch list'
Order placed at 1 .24 90 with a stop at the candle low of 1. 24 60 (risk -30pips) with an initial (half trade) target of the previous daily swing high at 1.25 80 (+ 90 pips) R = 3.
I have also a secondary target for the other half of the position at 1. 26 80 (+190pips)
(should both positions reach their targets, the reward equivalent is +140pips R=4.6)
As always, if this trade should be triggered open and move into profit by 30pips (the initial risk) to 1.25 20 I will move both stops to breakeven
If this market is truly in a string up-trend and hit my initial target, I will look for opportunities to add a further part position if price action provides suitable opportunity
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Re: EUR USD 4H trigger long
Trade opened and seen 1.25 20 (+30pips) so both stops to break-even
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Re: Silver counter trend signal
Order has been triggered open and price has subsequently seen 30.54 (+36 pips) and so I have mover my stop to a breakeven position
Order has been triggered open and price has subsequently seen 30.54 (+36 pips) and so I have mover my stop to a breakeven position
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Re: EUR USD 4H trigger long
Price just failed (6pips) to make target 1. I am moving my stop up to what appears to be support on the 4 hour time-frame, just below yesterdays low at 1.25 10 (+20 pips on both positions)
Price just failed (6pips) to make target 1. I am moving my stop up to what appears to be support on the 4 hour time-frame, just below yesterdays low at 1.25 10 (+20 pips on both positions)
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Re: EUR USD 4H trigger long
...and yes the stop has been hit, closing both parts for +20. The 'good' news is that had I not moved my stop up, I would have been taken out for NIL @ breakeven
I notice that I have an ascending trend-line (16-20 Aug, where 4hour trend 'crossed' to the up side) which co-insides with a 50% retrace of the whole of last weeks up swing around 1.24 40 (yellow box on chart attached), which may provide another support level for a potential long entry. Although I suspect if price does reach that level I will not be trading it because my 4 hour trend (moving averages) will be indicating lower prices (short trades)
...and yes the stop has been hit, closing both parts for +20. The 'good' news is that had I not moved my stop up, I would have been taken out for NIL @ breakeven
I notice that I have an ascending trend-line (16-20 Aug, where 4hour trend 'crossed' to the up side) which co-insides with a 50% retrace of the whole of last weeks up swing around 1.24 40 (yellow box on chart attached), which may provide another support level for a potential long entry. Although I suspect if price does reach that level I will not be trading it because my 4 hour trend (moving averages) will be indicating lower prices (short trades)
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GBP NZD short (counter trend)
My daily and 4 hour indicators are long
Price has reached a significant (weekly) resistance level and has the potential to retrace over 100 pips without breaking the current uptrend
I suspect I have missed the opportunity now, but I have placed an order to sell at .98 00 with a stop above the last high of .98 40 (risk = 40) I have set 3 take profit levels, the first at R=1 (ie 40 pips) at .97 60, the second at the previous daily resistance (which may now act as support) which is also the 61.8% retrace level of the last 4H and daily up swing and the other has no take profit, as if price should move even lower, I will trail my stop behind the movement (and possibly add further positions to it)
My daily and 4 hour indicators are long
Price has reached a significant (weekly) resistance level and has the potential to retrace over 100 pips without breaking the current uptrend
I suspect I have missed the opportunity now, but I have placed an order to sell at .98 00 with a stop above the last high of .98 40 (risk = 40) I have set 3 take profit levels, the first at R=1 (ie 40 pips) at .97 60, the second at the previous daily resistance (which may now act as support) which is also the 61.8% retrace level of the last 4H and daily up swing and the other has no take profit, as if price should move even lower, I will trail my stop behind the movement (and possibly add further positions to it)
