Seeking consistency

[Leia]

Re: AUD USD long

Order entry at 1.05 30 with a stop at 1.04 90 (risk -40 pips) and a target of the next daily resistance around 1.06 30 (reward +100 pips) R=2.5

Price has (just) seen 1.05 70 (+40) which was my risk value and so in line with my strategy I have moved my stop to break even @ 1.05 30

 

[Leia]

Re: AUD CAD long

Order opened, price has moved to 1.05 50 (+30pips) and in line with plan stops are at break even.

Stop hit. Trade closed for NIL

 

[Leia]

Re: AUD USD short (counter trend)

Order has opened and is moving strongly up (with the trend, against my position) expect to be closed out for -60 pips imminently

Stop reached. Trade closed for -60

 

[Leia]

Re: AUD NZD & EUR CHF and GBPJPY

Orders placed at 50% re-tracement of the 4H 'trigger' candles
Long AUD CHF 1.02 28 stop 1.02 00 (risk 28) target 1.05 00 (reward 272) R=10
Long NZD CHF 79.22, stop 79.00 (risk 22) target 81.00 (reward 177) R= 8
Short EUR AUD 1.17 43, stop 1.17 75 (risk 33), target 1.16 00 (reward 142) R=4
Short EUR NZD 1.51 63, stop 1.52 05 (risk 43), target 1.49 75 (reward 187) R=4
Short GBP JPY 122 .93, stop 123.20 (risk 23), target 120.00 (reward 292) R=11

NZD CHF trade opened and stop hit for -22 pips (50% position)
EUR NZD trade opened and stop hit for -43 pips (50% position)
GBP JPY trade opened and stop hit for -23 pips (50% position)
total loss -88 pips @ 50% position = -44pips
AUD CHF trade opened and stop moved to break even
(price has seen 1.04 60 = +230pips, just 40pips from an R10 target)
EUR AUD trade opened and stop moved to break even
(price has seen 1.16 10 = +130pips, just 10pips from an R4 target)

 

[Leia]

AUD CAD long

The daily time frame trend is long, Fridays candle indicated rejection of lower prices at this time, coinciding with the 50 - 61.8% re-tracement zone of the previous daily up move and daily resistance for the start of July (potential resistance becomes support)

However the 4H chart is trending lower, so I am watching for a blatant rejection of lower prices to act as a trigger for me to enter contrary to the shorter term trend (so it may not happen for a few days), unless Fridays low is breached, in which case the daily candle trigger is invalidated

 

[Leia]

Gbp (cad & chf)

Both charts have the same direction on the daily and 4H indicators and have retraced into 50 / 61.8% of their last 4 hourly 'with the trend' swing and printed reasonable 4hourly trigger candle formations

I am aware of GBP news in the next hour, which may stop my trades out, but that is accepted in my risk

I have placed orders
sell GBP CHF at 1.55 75, with a stop at 1.56 05 (-30pips risk) and initial profit target at 1.54 60 ( reward +115pips) R just short of 4
buy GBP CAD at 1.52 75, stop 1.52 15 (-70 pips risk) initial target at 1.54 75 (reward +200 pips) R just short of 3

 

[Leia]

Re: AUD NZD & EUR CHF and GBPJPY

NZD CHF trade opened and stop hit for -22 pips (50% position)
EUR NZD trade opened and stop hit for -43 pips (50% position)
GBP JPY trade opened and stop hit for -23 pips (50% position)
total loss -88 pips @ 50% position = -44pips
AUD CHF trade opened and stop moved to break even
(price has seen 1.04 60 = +230pips, just 40pips from an R10 target)
EUR AUD trade opened and stop moved to break even
(price has seen 1.16 10 = +130pips, just 10pips from an R4 target)

AUD CHF trade opened and stop moved to break even
(price has seen 1.04 60 = +230pips, just 40pips from an R10 target)
trade stopped out for NIL
EUR AUD trade opened and stop moved to break even
(price has seen 1.16 10 = +130pips, just 10pips from an R4 target)
trade stopped out for NIL

Very annoying (that's trading) both of these trades have been taken out for NIL, having narrowly failed to make their profit targets

I don't believe (apart from with the benefit of hindsight, with a tighter trailing stop) that I could have traded these two any better and so will not be making any change to my trading plan

 

[Leia]

Re: Gbp (cad & chf)

orders
sell GBP CHF at 1.55 75, with a stop at 1.56 05 (-30pips risk) and initial profit target at 1.54 60 ( reward +115pips) R just short of 4
buy GBP CAD at 1.52 75, stop 1.52 15 (-70 pips risk) initial target at 1.54 75 (reward +200 pips) R just short of 3

My 'sell' and 'buy' statements are obviously incorrect in this original post put the levels are all correct :-
GBP CHF trade opened
GBP CAD trade opened, price has since touched 1.52 45 (+30pips) which being the equivalent of my original risk, so I have moved my stop to breakeven

 

[Leia]

Re: Gbp (cad & chf)

GBP CAD trade opened, price has since touched 1.52 45 (+30pips) which being the equivalent of my original risk, so I have moved my stop to breakeven

GBPCAD stop hit for NIL

 

[MrBurns1]

Re: Gbp (cad & chf)

GBPCAD stop hit for NIL

Just on the back of this, do you not ever coonsider scaling out of your positions aswel as moving your stop to breakeven? So at least paying yourself some green pips but still having your open poistion?

I only ask this as I have myself had times where i have moved stops to breakeven and been stopped out for nil points and have thought to myself "I wish id have scaled out and at least made some money!"

maybe something to think about and incorporate into your trading plan at times.

Great thread anyway.

Sam

 

[Leia]

Re: Scaling out?

Just on the back of this, do you not ever coonsider scaling out of your positions aswel as moving your stop to breakeven? So at least paying yourself some green pips but still having your open poistion?

I only ask this as I have myself had times where i have moved stops to breakeven and been stopped out for nil points and have thought to myself "I wish id have scaled out and at least made some money!"

maybe something to think about and incorporate into your trading plan at times.

Great thread anyway.

Sam

Hello Sam

Thank you very much for your post

I have considered taking some profit in addition to moving my stop, but have decided against it as (given the trade has already moved in the expected / desired direction) I would be reducing the potential gain if price continues to move favorably to my target. Thus for a loser I would lose my full risk, for a winner I would gain two partial wins (which netted out would be a smaller over all win than planned) and would reduce my 'R' (risk to reward ratio).

I consider 'R' to be the most important aspect of my trading strategy, since I expect to have at least as many, if not more losing trades than winning ones. Therefore, in order to be profitable in the long term I must achieve an actual 'R' of considerably better than 2.

Ideally I should leave a trade to the market in totality, taking either the full loss or profit. However I find taking the losses too painful and would rather take a lot of breakeven positions (even that would have gone on to be winners) than have more losers and winners. Moving my stop to break even if it has moved an equal distance from the trade opening level as my original stop was is how I do this, it is very arbitrary but I am comfortable with it.

With the benefit of hindsight on this particular trade it was a very poor decision / interference with the trade, since it rallied back up to exactly the opening (and now exit too) level and then moved back away to the 'R+1' level

Unfortunately I do find trading in hindsight much easier than when all I have to the right of my set up is white space!

 

[Leia]

EUR USD short Daily & 4hour set ups

the daily trend indicators are short the 4hourly are flat (directionless)
price has retraced 50 / 61.58% of the last 4 hourly down swing and printed a daily candle formation indicating rejection of higher prices at this point in time

The level is below the obvious resistance on the daily chart, which held last week, at the 50 / 61.8% re-tracement of the previous large daily down swing

I have placed an order at the 50% re-tracement of yesterdays daily bar, which aligns very closely to the four hour trigger bar

I have split the profit targets in two, initially looking for the recent low of 1.22 40 (+110 pips, R almost 3) and there after this years low at 1. 20 50 (+300 pips, R over 7). However with two halves the true maximum reward is 55+150 = 205, which is still a very acceptable R=5

Order is at 1.23 50, with a stop at 1.23 90 (risk of -40pips)

 

[Leia]

AUD USD long

daily trend indicators are long
price has retraced to 38% of its last (large) up move and reached a previous resistance (potential support) level

my 4 hour chart indicators are short
the last 4 hour candle is a 'hammer' formation indicating rejection of lower prices at this time

I am not going to trade this set up, because my indicators are not in alignment, but watch with interest to see if this is the turning point for this pair to continue its major trend direction

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR USD short Daily & 4hour set ups

Order is at 1.23 50, with a stop at 1.23 90 (risk of -40pips)

I have removed my order(s) as price has moved to +40 (at 1.23 10), but without triggering my order first! (missed by approximately 8 pips)

 

[Pat494]

Hi Leia
well done going for so long. I admit I haven't read the whole thread but your today's post is much in line with your first post.

How have you got on generally ?
Looking at your profit and loss account should tell you if you are improving. Trading can be a lonely business.

 

[Leia]

Re: Gbp (cad & chf)

My 'sell' and 'buy' statements are obviously incorrect in this original post put the levels are all correct :-
GBP CHF trade opened
GBP CAD trade opened, price has since touched 1.52 45 (+30pips) which being the equivalent of my original risk, so I have moved my stop to breakeven

GBP CAD stop hit for NIL
GBP CHF stop moved to breakeven as price has seen +60pips (1.53 25)

 

[Leia]

Hi Leia
well done going for so long. I admit I haven't read the whole thread but your today's post is much in line with your first post.

How have you got on generally ?
Looking at your profit and loss account should tell you if you are improving. Trading can be a lonely business.

Hi Pat494

Thank you for your post

I must admit that the thread title is still very relevant, I have a good spell and then fall back in to bad old habits of over ruling my trading plan because I have had a few losing trades or no set ups at all, so a 'boredom' trade gets opened

Having admitted that, I have recently changed my plan to include for losses, which I had not done before. My reason being that if I have written down that in order to be successful I have to have so many losing trades (all with a set value) and so many winning trades (all of a minimum value) that I will be able to cope with the losing streaks better and 'keep the faith' with my strategy

The last few weeks I have tried to type up what pairs I am looking for setups on and at the end of the week assessing if the levels I wanted to see were reached and if a trigger appeared or not and then if I traded it or not. Its just another approach to getting more discipline and therefore consistency

Its going quite well at the moment, I have had a lot of losing trades (all to exactly my risk value) and a few break evens. Financially I am down, but I am happy that I have stuck to my plan and I don't need to have too many winners to totally negate all the losers (because the losers are small and the winners, when they come will be at least twice, if not 3,4, or 5 times as great)

 

[Leia]

USD JPY short

the daily trend indicators are short and price has retraced 50% of its immediate down swing in the daily and 38% of the larger down move )see two fib extensions on daily chart)

The four hourly trend is long, but a large 4 hourly bearish engulfing candle has printed at a level of potential long term resistance which may provide a trigger for a short entry (at a 50% retrace up into it)

I am not trading it (as, like the AUD USD my four hour and daily trends are out of alignment, but it is interesting to watch)

 

[Leia]

Re: AUD USD long

the last 4 hour candle is a 'hammer' formation indicating rejection of lower prices at this time

I am not going to trade this set up,
see if this is the turning point for this pair to continue its major trend direction

Any one that traded the 4H 'trigger' it has worked (to my rules) as if I was in it I would be moving my stop to break even having achieved R=1 (traditional use of 'hammer' candle for order entry and stop level definition).

Demonstrated as stop to entry = 50% of fib added to this chart and 50% to 100% is risk and reward equal - that is the only reason there is a fib added!

 

[Leia]

Re: Gbp (cad & chf)

GBPCAD stop hit for NIL

you just got to love trading...