Seeking consistency

[Leia]

CAD CHF short (counter trend)

The daily and 4hour trends are long

However, as identified in my weekly look ahead this pair is at an interesting level (previous weekly Swing high) which has the potential to cause a significant re-tracement of the 4hourly and a smaller re-tracement on the daily time-frames

The last two days candle bars are of a 'shooting star' type indicating rejection of higher prices at this point in time and potentially a move lower for this pair

They also provide 'triggers' upon which my order open and stop loss levels may reasonably be defined

I have placed an order to short this pair at about 50% of yesterdays range @ 0.96 50
with a stop just above the high @ 0.97 10 (risk -60pips)
I have established a target at the confluence of the 61.8% re-tracement of the preceding daily up swing which is also a previous daily swing high that acted as resistance and may now become a support level @ 0.94 50 (reward +200pips)
R=3.

As always, should my order be opened and price move in my favour by my risk (ie to 0.95 90 I will move my stop to breakeven and thereafter trail at 'sensible' 4hourly resistance levels

 

[Leia]

EUR CAD long (counter trend)

Very similar to the CHF the EUR CAD pair has printed daily rejection candles (hammer type) of lower prices at a significant weekly swing low, providing trigger for order entry and stop placement for a counter trend trade

I have placed a long order @ 1.24 00, stop 1.23 60 (risk -40pips) and target at 1.27 00 (reward +300 pips)
R=5

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR CAD long (counter trend)

I have placed a long order @ 1.24 00, stop 1.23 60 (risk -40pips) and target at 1.27 00 (reward +300 pips)
R=5

Price has seen 1.24 40 (+40pips), which being the same as my original risk for this trade dictates that I move my stop to a breakeven position

 

[Leia]

Re: EUR CAD long (counter trend)

Price has seen 1.24 40 (+40pips), which being the same as my original risk for this trade dictates that I move my stop to a breakeven position

Stop hit for NIL on this trade

 

[Leia]

GBP JPY short trigger

My daily trend is down
My 4hour is long, but the 20ema has turned down

Price appears to have rejected higher prices at this time on the daily time-frame, at 50% re-tracement of the previous daily down swing and the 20ems 'dynamic' resistance

The 4h chart has just printed a candle with a shooting star formation (albeit not with a wick considerably higher than previous prices) and possibly rejection the 4h 20ema as potential dynamic support now become resistance

I have placed an order short at the round 123.00, with a stop just above the 4h candle high at 123.30 (-30pips risk) with an initial target of recent daily lows at 122.05 (+95 pips) R=3 and a second target of the lows at 120.00 (300 pips) r=10

as always, should my trade be opened and achieve a reward of +1 (30 pips) @ 122.70 I will move to breakeven

 

[Leia]

Re: GBP JPY short trigger

I have placed an order short at the round 123.00, with a stop just above the 4h candle high at 123.30 (-30pips risk) with an initial target of recent daily lows at 122.05 (+95 pips) R=3 and a second target of the lows at 120.00 (300 pips) r=10

Trade opened and closed @ stop for -30 pips

 

[Leia]

Re: CAD CHF short (counter trend)

I have placed an order to short this pair at about 50% of yesterdays range @ 0.96 50
with a stop just above the high @ 0.97 10 (risk -60pips)
I have established a target at the confluence of the 61.8% re-tracement of the preceding daily up swing which is also a previous daily swing high that acted as resistance and may now become a support level @ 0.94 50 (reward +200pips)
R=3.

Trade opened and stop taken out for -60pips

 

[Leia]

Re: watch list for week commencing July 16th '12

dir pair level of interest
short EUR USD 1.22 60
short GBP USD
long USD CHF 0.98 00
long GOLD EURO 1,288.0
short EUR GBP
short EUR NZD
short EUR AUD
short EUR JPY 97.50
short GBP CAD 1.58 15
short GBP NZD 1.96 00 (already traded this week of a R1 win)
short GPB JPY 123.30
short CHF JPY 80.84 or 81.25,watch price action
long NZD CHF
long AUD CHF

I also noticed two potential counter trend set ups on the daily time frame
long EUR CAD price is at support from 2010
short CAD CHF price is at a weekly swing high

I have just undertaken the same exercise for this week and also reviewed last weeks 'watch list'

In summary, whilst 5 of my 14 directions were right, none of them produced any obvious triggers (even with the benefit of hind-sight) and 2 of them were ignored because the lower time-frame trend (ma cross) changed during the week, to get into the trades. My two 'counter trend' trades were wrong, however I took them because I had acceptable triggers at previous significant support / resistance levels

Despite a bad week results wise, I haven't learned anything from last weeks price action that indicates to me that I need to make any changes to my trading plan

 

[Leia]

watch list for week commencing July 23rd '12

dir pair level (as last week)
long OIL (no)
long EUR GOLD (yes)
short EUR GBP
short EUR NZD
short EUR AUD
short EUR JPY
long GBP CHF
short GBP AUD 1.51 60
long AUD JPY 81.25
short CHF JPY
long CAD CHF
long AUD CHF
long AUD NZD 1.29 00
long USD CHF
short EUR USD
short USD CAD 1.01 30
long NZD USD
short USD JPY
long AUD USD

The EUR has been very weak for July against everything and since June against the AUD & NZD, possibly increasing the chance of a corrective pull back, so I will not be taking all of the eur 'short' positions that I have identified above unless they happen to appear in such a way that the first has achieved at least breakeven before the second presents itself

 

[Leia]

EUR NZD short 4H trigger

dir pair level (as last week)
short EUR NZD

The EUR has been very weak for July against everything and since June against the AUD & NZD, possibly increasing the chance of a corrective pull back, so I will not be taking all of the eur 'short' positions that I have identified above unless they happen to appear in such a way that the first has achieved at least breakeven before the second presents itself

The daily and 4H trends remain short
the 4H chart has pulled back between 50 and 61.8% of last weeks down swing move and to the approximate level of a previous minor support level which may become resistance
a 4H 'trigger' candle has printed indicating rejection of higher prices at this time, not quite making the preceding (this weeks) high

I have placed and order short @ 1.18 10 with a stop just above this weeks high at 1.18 50 (-40pips risk) with an initial target of the recent all time lows at 1.17 00 (+110 pips risk). R almost 3

My order was opened and stopped out (by 5 pips @ 1.18 55) before turning and moving through the ascending 4H trend-line to 1.17 35. So I took a 40pip loss, despite the trade set up being proved 'right'!

That is frustrating, but even with the benefit of hindsight, I do not see a 'better' way I could have traded this set up and so do not see any reason to make a change to my trading strategy. In-fact it demonstrates that even 'perfect' trade set ups, when you have patiently waited all week for them to appear, can lose

 

[Leia]

watch list for week commencing July 30th

dir pair level (as last week)
long EUR GOLD 1310 (YY)
long GOLD 1560
short EUR NZD (YY)
short EUR AUD (YY)
short GBP AUD 1.50 75 (Y)
short GBP NZD 1.96 10
long AUD JPY (Y)
long NZD JPY
long NZD CAD
long AUD CAD 1.04 70
long NZD CHF 0.78 40
long AUD CHF
short USD CAD (Y)
long NZD USD 0.79 60 (Y)
long GBP USD 1.56 00
short USD JPY 78.70 (Y)
long AUD USD 1.03 20 (Y)

I also noticed that despite the 4H chart trend changing to long, the EUR USD pair has retraced 50% of its previous daily time-frame down swing. A strong daily trigger short would be an attractive trade at these levels, despite the mis-alignment of the 4hourly trend indicators

 

[Leia]

USD JPY short order

daily and 4hour trends are short
4h has retraced 61.8% of last down swing leg (week before last) and has met resistance there, at former support around 78.70
Although the price action trigger is not as obvious as I would wish, I have placed a sell order at 78.50 with a 20 pip stop at last weeks swing high with a target 1 of the recent daily low at 77.70 (reward +50) R=2.5, should the order open
I have placed half of the position size at the same entry and stop levels with a more ambitious target of the lows at 77.00 (reward +110 pips) R=5.5

 

[Leia]

Re: USD JPY short order

daily and 4hour trends are short
4h has retraced 61.8% of last down swing leg (week before last) and has met resistance there, at former support around 78.70
Although the price action trigger is not as obvious as I would wish, I have placed a sell order at 78.50 with a 20 pip stop at last weeks swing high with a target 1 of the recent daily low at 77.70 (reward +50) R=2.5, should the order open
I have placed half of the position size at the same entry and stop levels with a more ambitious target of the lows at 77.00 (reward +110 pips) R=5.5

Price has been to 78.10, 40 pips away from my entry level, which is twice the distance from my entry level to my stop) I have therefore removed my order, as it has not been opened

 

[Leia]

eur GOLD and usd GOLD long

both are long on my daily and 4H time frames and have retraced to around 50 / 61.8% of their previous 4hour up swings

usd has a better trigger candle, but both can be read as rejecting lower prices at this point in time (inside bar & 'hammer') on the 4H charts

I have placed long orders:
EUR GOLD 1306, stop 1295 (-11 pips), target 1340 (+34 pips) R=3
USD GOLD 1600, stop 1590 (-10pips), target 1640 (+40pips) R=4

should my orders be fulfilled and price then move in my favour by the same value as my risk then I'll bring my stop to break even

 

[Leia]

AUD USD short (counter trend)

My daily and 4H trends are long

However the past three daily candles have indicated rejection of higher prices at this time, at a significant weekly time-frame swing high and daily ascending channel high

The four hour chart printed a strong 'shooting star' shaped candle after yesterdays ECB announcement, which I have used to place a sell order 50% back into it at
1.05 20 with a stop above at 1.05 80 (risk -60pips) and an initial target of 1.03 60 (reward 160) R=2.6. I have a secondary target of 1.03 00

I will trade this in my usual way, should the trade trigger and price move down to 1.04 60 (+60pips R1) I will move my stop to break even. I appreciate with NFP being announced this afternoon volatility will pick up and my trade may open and be stopped out in a matter of minutes, but that is always a trading risk, it will just happen more quickly if this particular set up is proven to be invalid!

 

[Leia]

AUD CAD long

both daily and 4H trends are long

Price has retraced 50 of the last 4H up move and printed a trigger candle just above this weeks low (last weeks early resistance, perhaps turning to support)

I have placed and order with the trend (against the bold 4H counter trend trigger candle) just above the previous daily swing high (resistance turns to support, perhaps) at 1.05 20 with a stop just below the lows at 1.04 90 (risk -30 pips) with a target one of 1.06 20 (+100pips) R=3 and a second target of the weekly swing high at 1.07 20 (+200 pips)

comments as for the AUD USD counter trend, but a valid strategy trade never the less

 

[Leia]

Re: AUD CAD long

I have placed and order with the trend (against the bold 4H counter trend trigger candle) just above the previous daily swing high (resistance turns to support, perhaps) at 1.05 20 with a stop just below the lows at 1.04 90 (risk -30 pips) with a target one of 1.06 20 (+100pips) R=3 and a second target of the weekly swing high at 1.07 20 (+200 pips)

Order opened, price has moved to 1.05 50 (+30pips) and in line with plan stops are at break even.

 

[Leia]

Re: AUD USD short (counter trend)

at 1.05 20 with a stop above at 1.05 80 (risk -60pips) and an initial target of 1.03 60 (reward 160) R=2.6. I have a secondary target of 1.03 00

Order has opened and is moving strongly up (with the trend, against my position) expect to be closed out for -60 pips imminently

 

[Leia]

AUD NZD & EUR CHF and GBPJPY

Five charts have printed 4H trigger candles overnight (during the Asian session) with the daily and 4H trends, but against strong weekly candles

The antipodean currencies against the euro (and swissie). The GBPJPY pair has also printed a trigger candle

As there are so many, I am setting orders on them all at 50% my usual stake (since EUR and CHF are often a 'mirror' entering a half position on each usually equates to a full stake on just one). I am also very aware of the weekly candles indicating a reversal in the recent euro weakness, but these all match my trading plan and so I am going to take them

Orders placed at 50% re-tracement of the 4H 'trigger' candles
Long AUD CHF 1.02 28 stop 1.02 00 (risk 28) target 1.05 00 (reward 272) R=10
Long NZD CHF 79.22, stop 79.00 (risk 22) target 81.00 (reward 177) R= 8
Short EUR AUD 1.17 43, stop 1.17 75 (risk 33), target 1.16 00 (reward 142) R=4
Short EUR NZD 1.51 63, stop 1.52 05 (risk 43), target 1.49 75 (reward 187) R=4
Short GBP JPY 122 .93, stop 123.20 (risk 23), target 120.00 (reward 292) R=11

 

[Leia]

AUD USD long

The counter trend trade at the start of the week did not work out despite the daily chart still looking over stretched (along way from its moving averages and ascending trend-line, around previous resistance) I have placed an order with the trend based on the last two four hour bars which are indicating a reluctance of price accepting lower levels at this point in time (hammer type candle shapes) at around the 50 61.8% re-tracement level of this weeks up move on the four hourly chart

Order entry at 1.05 30 with a stop at 1.04 90 (risk -40 pips) and a target of the next daily resistance around 1.06 30 (reward +100 pips) R=2.5