Re: Tues Feb 1th '11
and of course, post the news, the pair went on to give in excess of +100 !
Re: cable news day - potential levels
Smashed through both of them, so no entry offered, next is 1.60 00 / 1.60 20 zone (ascending 1H TL and start of last 1H up move)
Smashed through both of them, so no entry offered, next is 1.60 00 / 1.60 20 zone (ascending 1H TL and start of last 1H up move)
Thurs Feb 17th
My 'multi trend' filter has only returned 5 pairs to watch this morning, but I have ruled out 2 on the basis that they have made their moves and if anything will be counter trend trades
cable Long 1.61 15 area
swissie Short 95 70 area
cad Short already made its move, may be a counter trend move (ie Long)
gbp jpy Long 1.34 65 area (like cable)
aud jpy Long already made its move, may be counter trend move (ie Short)
My 'multi trend' filter has only returned 5 pairs to watch this morning, but I have ruled out 2 on the basis that they have made their moves and if anything will be counter trend trades
cable Long 1.61 15 area
swissie Short 95 70 area
cad Short already made its move, may be a counter trend move (ie Long)
gbp jpy Long 1.34 65 area (like cable)
aud jpy Long already made its move, may be counter trend move (ie Short)
Re: Thurs Feb 17th
5min 'hammer' type candle indicating support of price on ascending trendline, break above previous resistance triggered trade
5min 'hammer' type candle indicating support of price on ascending trendline, break above previous resistance triggered trade
Attachments
Re: eur gbp short trigger
Stop moved to break even, as 'hammer' shaped 4H candle just printed, indicating rejection of lower prices and that the ascending 4H line may hold as support
Stop moved to break even, as 'hammer' shaped 4H candle just printed, indicating rejection of lower prices and that the ascending 4H line may hold as support
Re: Thurs Feb 17th
Rubbish trading by me, price hovered just below my entry for a while and then dived almost 40 pips.
Fortunately I was saved by my broker because the minimum stop distance for this pair is 40 pips, so I wasn't stopped out (should have taken a 20 - 25 pip loss really)
Amazingly lucky price then reversed and I took half of the position off at +20 pips
I then closed out the trade as it moved back towards (within 5 pips) the break even level at lunch time
So a +10 profit net, for a -40 draw down, very very lucky for me
Rubbish trading by me, price hovered just below my entry for a while and then dived almost 40 pips.
Fortunately I was saved by my broker because the minimum stop distance for this pair is 40 pips, so I wasn't stopped out (should have taken a 20 - 25 pip loss really)
Amazingly lucky price then reversed and I took half of the position off at +20 pips
I then closed out the trade as it moved back towards (within 5 pips) the break even level at lunch time
So a +10 profit net, for a -40 draw down, very very lucky for me
Fri 18th Feb
My filter hasn't returned any pairs for this morning, although it is implying usd weakness with cable, euro and aussie all set up to break to the long side on the 4H and 1H charts
Cad printed a daily hammer like candle yesterday and is at a good (low) level for a counter trend trade (long)
Cable and Ozzie have trended sideways through the asian session with clearly defined boundaries, so it may be possible to play these, either for a continuation of range or a break out, depending upon short term (5m) sentiment at 1.61 60 1.61 80 and 1.00 05 1.00 30 respectively, at least until the UK news at 9:30am
My filter hasn't returned any pairs for this morning, although it is implying usd weakness with cable, euro and aussie all set up to break to the long side on the 4H and 1H charts
Cad printed a daily hammer like candle yesterday and is at a good (low) level for a counter trend trade (long)
Cable and Ozzie have trended sideways through the asian session with clearly defined boundaries, so it may be possible to play these, either for a continuation of range or a break out, depending upon short term (5m) sentiment at 1.61 60 1.61 80 and 1.00 05 1.00 30 respectively, at least until the UK news at 9:30am
Mon 21st Feb
My filter has returned 5 pairs to watch this morning.
Essentially the usd and jpy have been weaker that the higher risk currencies over the asian session, continuing the trend from Friday. The 1H 20ema appears to be an ascending support line, so pull backs to these levels and indications of rejections of further corrections lower may provide profitable entires
cable Long 1.62 25 / 00
eur jpy Long 113.65 / 50
gbp jpy Long 134.90 / 75
nzd usd Long 76.20 / 00
aud jpy Long 84.15 / 00
My filter has returned 5 pairs to watch this morning.
Essentially the usd and jpy have been weaker that the higher risk currencies over the asian session, continuing the trend from Friday. The 1H 20ema appears to be an ascending support line, so pull backs to these levels and indications of rejections of further corrections lower may provide profitable entires
cable Long 1.62 25 / 00
eur jpy Long 113.65 / 50
gbp jpy Long 134.90 / 75
nzd usd Long 76.20 / 00
aud jpy Long 84.15 / 00
OK
I just received a 'we're missing you' eMail from T2W !
Made me realise that all my good intentions for this year of keeping a journal have not materialised. that probably explains why my account hasn't grown exponentially to its first £1m !
I do know how important it is to keep a record of trades, so that you can be confident in 'your' strategy and 'your' trading plan, so I have no one to blame but myself
As I fortunately do still have a pound or two in my trading account. I will now post pre and post trade messages and maintain a formal log of financial performance along side
I haven't yet mastered uploading snapshots from excel (metatrader charts I can do), which would be really helpful, so that is what I shall search the great T2W site for now
I just received a 'we're missing you' eMail from T2W !
Made me realise that all my good intentions for this year of keeping a journal have not materialised. that probably explains why my account hasn't grown exponentially to its first £1m !
I do know how important it is to keep a record of trades, so that you can be confident in 'your' strategy and 'your' trading plan, so I have no one to blame but myself
As I fortunately do still have a pound or two in my trading account. I will now post pre and post trade messages and maintain a formal log of financial performance along side
I haven't yet mastered uploading snapshots from excel (metatrader charts I can do), which would be really helpful, so that is what I shall search the great T2W site for now
The charts are a little confused at the moment, as my daily moving averages imply uptrends (cable, euro, aussie, kiwi), yet we broke below support yesterday
I'd therefore looking for short signals on the 1H and 4H timeframe, around the level of the 4H 20ema for a further test of recent resistance levels
Here's what I mean:
I'd therefore looking for short signals on the 1H and 4H timeframe, around the level of the 4H 20ema for a further test of recent resistance levels
Here's what I mean:
Attachments
Still no clear direction, the support is still being tested but not broken and the daily moving averages remain 'long'
Some other pairs that may have arrived in 'reversal zones' are:
potential shorts -
EUR AUD (daily shooting star last Friday, at previous resistance 1.34 70 for 1.29 00)
GBP AUD (daily s/start 11th, @ 61.8% retrace of Octobers down move- against ma's)
AUD NZD (at previous weekly resistance (2010) and support level, against daily ma's)
GBP NZD (as AUD above)
potential longs -
AUD CAD (prev daily support, 50% retrace Octobers up move, close to daily ma's X)
CAD JPY (prev support (Oct) and 61.8% retrace of Octobers up swing move)
quite boring at present
Some other pairs that may have arrived in 'reversal zones' are:
potential shorts -
EUR AUD (daily shooting star last Friday, at previous resistance 1.34 70 for 1.29 00)
GBP AUD (daily s/start 11th, @ 61.8% retrace of Octobers down move- against ma's)
AUD NZD (at previous weekly resistance (2010) and support level, against daily ma's)
GBP NZD (as AUD above)
potential longs -
AUD CAD (prev daily support, 50% retrace Octobers up move, close to daily ma's X)
CAD JPY (prev support (Oct) and 61.8% retrace of Octobers up swing move)
quite boring at present
Attachments
EUR USD short
Fast rally this morning to the 4H ema and this weeks (apparent) resistance level
I have a 15min shooting star which I have used as a trigger (30 pip risk)
If we revisit the weeks lows @ 1.34 20 then I'll have a 90 pip reward (1:3), which is an acceptable r:r profile for me. I'm hoping that we test the early October lows @ around 1.32 00 though. I suppose it will depend upon Greece, Italy & the ECB
Fast rally this morning to the 4H ema and this weeks (apparent) resistance level
I have a 15min shooting star which I have used as a trigger (30 pip risk)
If we revisit the weeks lows @ 1.34 20 then I'll have a 90 pip reward (1:3), which is an acceptable r:r profile for me. I'm hoping that we test the early October lows @ around 1.32 00 though. I suppose it will depend upon Greece, Italy & the ECB
Attachments
Re: EUR USD short
That has now been taken out, so no loss & no gain
still looking for shorting trigger though
Well the beauty of a short timeframe trigger is the small risk. When I had finished typing the post price had broken through a risk reward of 1:1, so I moved my stop to breakeven
That has now been taken out, so no loss & no gain
still looking for shorting trigger though
Re: Eur aud
Still think it was a valid trade in hindsight, just didn't play out
Price hit entry level an stop taken out
Still think it was a valid trade in hindsight, just didn't play out
My thinking for this week is that the majors will be range bound until the release of the NFP result on Friday
Sentiment (for me) is USD strength, this is because all of my Daily moving averages have 'crossed' to the downside (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD) / upside (JPY, CHF, CAD)
My tactics for the first four days of the week are to sell into any rallies at around current highs, or fib retracements between to the 61.8% level. Ideally with the four hour moving averages, although if my theory holds, these will become flatter throughout the week
Here's my overview looking at cable
Sentiment (for me) is USD strength, this is because all of my Daily moving averages have 'crossed' to the downside (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD) / upside (JPY, CHF, CAD)
My tactics for the first four days of the week are to sell into any rallies at around current highs, or fib retracements between to the 61.8% level. Ideally with the four hour moving averages, although if my theory holds, these will become flatter throughout the week
Here's my overview looking at cable
Attachments
Just to add, if price reaches the following levels I will be seeking reversal patterns to get me into what I see as the dominant daily trend:
eur 1.35 60 - 1.36 20
gbp 1.56 50 - 1.57 50
aud 1.00 10 - 1.01 00
nzd 0.76 65 - 0.77 30
jpy 0.77 00
chf 0.91 00 - 0.89 50
cad 1.03 10 - 1.02 00
AUD USD enters 'zone' of interest
Ozzie has powered into the 50% / 61.8% retracement area of the last down leg and might meet resistance at the daily 20ema resistance coupled with previous support turning to resistance level @ 1.00 50
Ozzie has powered into the 50% / 61.8% retracement area of the last down leg and might meet resistance at the daily 20ema resistance coupled with previous support turning to resistance level @ 1.00 50
