S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

[counter_violent]

Should add no call for a few weeks/months leaving the Gold Coast after 22 years and moving to Hervey Bay.
Hopefully they have the internet.
Will be spending 6 months there and moving around, other parts of AUS, Bali & maybe the UK.

Hervey Bay - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Can access T2W from a mobile, so no problem . Keep those calls coming !

 

[counter_violent]

3888.3 ta

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

⬆️ 3891

 

[2_bits]

3900

 

[Atilla]

Hi Everyone,

Here are the forecasts for week 27. We have even split this week with 5 bulls and 5 bears. Snowsword is the most bullish about as much as I am bearish. We have 370 point variation in forecasts. Crazy market can go either way, with swings of 2%.

Wishing you all good luck and prosperous trading...

 

[counter_violent]

Was that a 2_bit perfect score !
Looks like it to me.

 

[Atilla]

2-bits takes his first gold medal and second place on the Quarter-3 leaderboard. Well done 2-bits. 👏👏

Moreover, 2-bits was just 0.62 of a point away from getting market close on Friday. That's really really good. However, looking at our records sheet we have had better. See clip below on records...

I-Cat's Paw-I takes the silver and CV bronze medals this week. Good calls from them two approx 10 points away.

Past Records on Numbers

Quarter-3 League Table

Leader board...

 

[2_bits]

Last week maybe have just been beginner's luck. I'll need to log three week's in a row if I want to pursue my lifelong dream of starting my own 2_bit forecasting service.

Next week's 2-bit forecast => 3,800

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

⬆️ 3992

 

[Atilla]

3837

 

[Snowsword]

bearish this week, 3690

 

[Velo]

Trouble and strife last week so I was a no-show.
Desktop computer busted too as I departed for the other end of the country
- And yet to return home.

The week has started bearish but shoving my hand in the furnace to go the opposite direction by close of:

3920

 

[counter_violent]

3737.3 ta

 

[Atilla]

Hi Guys,

Sorry for the late write up this week, the weather has caused delays with my seating plans.

We have 3 bulls and 6 bears. Oscar did mention WiFi might be a little suspect at Hervey Bey down under so his probably still finding his air-waves to surf his forecasts across to us.

1nvest is probably spending his pips too on his summer hols somewhere or other.

So Cat's Paw is the most bullish with Snowsword bearish. After just seeing the CPI figures from the US, I can only suspect rate rises will spook the pooh out of these fragile markets. Strap your selves in as they say in the movies. Might be a bumby ride.

Wishing you all prosperous and sunny days. Yay

 

[Atilla]

Well done to all of us this week as mean Average takes the gold medal. 👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏

Atilla takes the silver and 2-bits the bronze medals earning some valuable points.

2-bits has now stormed into 2nd place trailing CV at the top of the leader board.

This weeks results.

Quarter 3 - Leader board

Over-all leaderboard and medals for the year.

Keep those forecasts coming folks.

 

[Velo]

Hi Atilla,

Well done for your consistently high scores.

Point of order that I don't get:

Pretty sure I was 3rd closest (bronze) to the final close by a couple of points, yet the bronze medal has been awarded to someone actually further away from the close than my entry. Is it a case of mistaken identity?
I can assure you I am not a Russian competitor.

Is it an error?
Or is it something to do with my entry being in the wrong (-1) direction?

 

[Atilla]

Hi Atilla,

Well done for your consistently high scores.

Point of order that I don't get:

Pretty sure I was 3rd closest (bronze) to the final close by a couple of points, yet the bronze medal has been awarded to someone actually further away from the close than my entry. Is it a case of mistaken identity?
I can assure you I am not a Russian competitor.

Is it an error?
Or is it something to do with my entry being in the wrong (-1) direction?

Thank you for your kind words dear Velo...

Before getting any points for proximity to the weekly closing index, one has to first get the direction correct. Forecasters lose a point for getting direction wrong and do not get any for being close to the closing index.

We did discuss this point some years ago and collectively we agreed to get the direction correct is the difference between making money or losing it.

I do appreciate in some cases one person may be 100 points away and another 10 but if in the wrong direction then it really doesn't matter as one party makes money and another loses if call on direction is not right. Hence, our scoring strategy.

The proximity question evens it self out over the course of the year too as forecasters can equally find themselves in reverse scenarios.

Getting direction is key. No one has ever got over 30 points if I recall. So if one were to get direction correct every week, they'd be looking at 52 points. Trend is your best mate and all that.

Hope that explains it.

 

[2_bits]

I think next week down again to 3,700.

Anyone have a longer-term, fearless forecast they care to share? I know several of you are really experienced full time traders so would love to hear your thoughts about how low/long you think this bear will go. Here's my thoughts as of right now.

As shown in attached weekly S&P 500 chart, sometime over the next month, I'm looking for a double bottom to form with some kind of bullish reversal weekly candlestick to mark the end to this bear market. On the daily timeframe I'd like to see the second bottom of the double bottom show slowing momentum and divergence with the first bottom from mid-June.

When viewing the monthly candlestick charts, this bear market appears to be just a nice orderly pullback that is about over. I'm expecting resumption of the bull market before end of this summer and another all-time high on the S&P 500 within the next year or so before any extended bear market.

I put 50% of my long-term in semiconductors (SMH) last week in anticipation of market bottom with a fairly wide stop and will add remaining 50% with a tight stop when I see confirmation. My uncle point on first 50% is if downside momentum picks up or we start trading below about 3,500 on S&P.

 

[Snowsword]

Hi Atilla,

Well done for your consistently high scores.

Point of order that I don't get:

Pretty sure I was 3rd closest (bronze) to the final close by a couple of points, yet the bronze medal has been awarded to someone actually further away from the close than my entry. Is it a case of mistaken identity?
I can assure you I am not a Russian competitor.

Is it an error?
Or is it something to do with my entry being in the wrong (-1) direction?

Dear Atilla, I am not a Russian competitor either
I guessed the correct direction two times out of three, my score should not be -1. I can withstand the disappointment of not getting any medals, but your magnifying glass used on July 9 made me upset

 

[Snowsword]

I think next week down again to 3,700.

Anyone have a longer-term, fearless forecast they care to share? I know several of you are really experienced full time traders so would love to hear your thoughts about how low/long you think this bear will go. Here's my thoughts as of right now.

As shown in attached weekly S&P 500 chart, sometime over the next month, I'm looking for a double bottom to form with some kind of bullish reversal weekly candlestick to mark the end to this bear market. On the daily timeframe I'd like to see the second bottom of the double bottom show slowing momentum and divergence with the first bottom from mid-June.

When viewing the monthly candlestick charts, this bear market appears to be just a nice orderly pullback that is about over. I'm expecting resumption of the bull market before end of this summer and another all-time high on the S&P 500 within the next year or so before any extended bear market.

I put 50% of my long-term in semiconductors (SMH) last week in anticipation of market bottom with a fairly wide stop and will add remaining 50% with a tight stop when I see confirmation. My uncle point on first 50% is if downside momentum picks up or we start trading below about 3,500 on S&P.

Hi 2-bits, I am currently bearish about the market, my short-term guess is that SP will first touch 3480 before having any meaningful rebound.