S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

[Snowsword]

Atila, sorry for the confusion. The points for 'high' and 'low' are calculated the same as what you have been doing with 'close'. The one who gets the gold medal earns 3 points, silver 2, and bronze 1, plus 1 point if the direction is right. In my example, I mean if someone's prediction for 'high' earn him a gold medal (he would earn 3 points for it), his prediction for low ranks the 5th position (he would earn no medal and 0 points), his prediction for close ranks the 3rd position (he would earn a bronze medal and 1 point), and most likely his direction is also correct and earns 1 more point. Thus, the total score is 3+0+1+1=5.

If adding too much work, then forget it. The current competition format is already good enough to promote thinking and analysis. Thank you👍

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Atila, sorry for the confusion. The points for 'high' and 'low' are calculated the same as what you have been doing with 'close'. The one who gets the gold medal earns 3 points, silver 2, and bronze 1, plus 1 point if the direction is right. In my example, I mean if someone's prediction for 'high' earn him a gold medal (he would earn 3 points for it), his prediction for low ranks the 5th position (he would earn no medal and 0 points), his prediction for close ranks the 3rd position (he would earn a bronze medal and 1 point), and most likely his direction is also correct and earns 1 more point. Thus, the total score is 3+0+1+1=5.

If adding too much work, then forget it. The current competition format is already good enough to promote thinking and analysis. Thank you👍

I think this ideas is really interesting, but I'm missing the forecast for the direction of the weekly high's and lows.
Currently all results of the challenge depends only on the weekly closing price,

So I would suggest a change to your idea for discussion:
Higher and lower highs and lower and higher lows lows could also be calculated for the results in the same way as the closing price is evaluated now:
1 point for the right direction, -1 point for the wrong direction, ranks for gold medal earns 3 points, silver 2, and bronze 1 point.
So for the forecast of the moves of the weekly high against last week's high there is a maximum of 4 points to earn and a maximum of 1 point to lose.
The same is for the weekly low: a maximum of 4 points to earn and a maximum of 1 point to lose.
To give the close price forecast more value, I would add 1 point to the direction and 1 point to the medal ranks, so it would be
2 points for the right direction, -2 points for the wrong direction of the closing price, ranks for gold medal earns 4 points, silver 3, and bronze 2 point.

So a maximum of 7 points could be earned with the correct forecast of the closing price, and a maximum of 4 points for each of the weekly high and low forecast. The maximum is 15 points per week if someone has all 1st ranks, and -4 points if all forecasts were wrong.

So, extending your example with this change, I could calculate the following results under the simplifying assumption that the ranks for predicting the lows and highs are the same as for predicting the closing price, and assuming that the direction of the highs and lows was correctly predicted:

weekly close: direction correct, 3rd rank: 2+2=4
weekly high: direction correct, 1st rank: 1+3=4
weekly low: direction correct, 5th rank: 1+0=1
total: 9 points.

If the directions were wrong for the weekly high and low as a second example, but the close direction and rank stay unchanged, there would be no ranks for the weekly high and low and the penalty for the wrong direction to regard.
Calculation:
weekly close: direction correct, 3rd rank: 2+2=4
weekly high: direction not correct, no rank: -1+0=-1
weekly low: direction not correct, no rank: -1+0=-1
total: 2 points.

If it's too complicated, you can leave it as it is now. This is made for discussion. 🙂

 

[Atilla]

I think this ideas is really interesting, but I'm missing the forecast for the direction of the weekly high's and lows.
Currently all results of the challenge depends only on the weekly closing price,

So I would suggest a change to your idea for discussion:
Higher and lower highs and lower and higher lows lows could also be calculated for the results in the same way as the closing price is evaluated now:
1 point for the right direction, -1 point for the wrong direction, ranks for gold medal earns 3 points, silver 2, and bronze 1 point.
So for the forecast of the moves of the weekly high against last week's high there is a maximum of 4 points to earn and a maximum of 1 point to lose.
The same is for the weekly low: a maximum of 4 points to earn and a maximum of 1 point to lose.
To give the close price forecast more value, I would add 1 point to the direction and 1 point to the medal ranks, so it would be
2 points for the right direction, -2 points for the wrong direction of the closing price, ranks for gold medal earns 4 points, silver 3, and bronze 2 point.

So a maximum of 7 points could be earned with the correct forecast of the closing price, and a maximum of 4 points for each of the weekly high and low forecast. The maximum is 15 points per week if someone has all 1st ranks, and -4 points if all forecasts were wrong.

So, extending your example with this change, I could calculate the following results under the simplifying assumption that the ranks for predicting the lows and highs are the same as for predicting the closing price, and assuming that the direction of the highs and lows was correctly predicted:

weekly close: direction correct, 3rd rank: 2+2=4
weekly high: direction correct, 1st rank: 1+3=4
weekly low: direction correct, 5th rank: 1+0=1
total: 9 points.

If the directions were wrong for the weekly high and low as a second example, but the close direction and rank stay unchanged, there would be no ranks for the weekly high and low and the penalty for the wrong direction to regard.
Calculation:
weekly close: direction correct, 3rd rank: 2+2=4
weekly high: direction not correct, no rank: -1+0=-1
weekly low: direction not correct, no rank: -1+0=-1
total: 2 points.

If it's too complicated, you can leave it as it is now. This is made for discussion. 🙂

I do think it is overcomplicating scoring.

ie In the CandleStick (CS) type formation High/Low/Close can be all forecasted incorrectly. ie Lower High or Higher Low can take place along with HH and LL etc. Each reward should have a negative attached to it if wrong.

As before what I'd be interested in exploring the objective of the new scoring. If we were calculating pips made in trading, then forecasting target and stop loss might be of benefit but I tried to work the potential pips from the forecasts before and it was complicated and time-consuming. Even more so to keep track of it all over the year.

Hope that's ok Snowsword...

Open to suggestions and new ideas though so thank you very much for raising the suggestion. 👍

 

[Atilla]

3601 for me in this week number 25 in 2022. We are almost half way through the year. 🙂

Can't see what can change market fundamentals, which is looking quite bad.

With the benefit of hindsight, Central Banks, must be asking them selves, how did we let inflation get this bad?

So much for 2% inflationary target held by CBs as some kind of golden rule. Data led Fed hikes looks like loadsa nonsense now. Lot of waffle with no action behind words. Empty words indeed.

Wishing you all the best... 👍

 

[counter_violent]

3601 for me in this week number 25 in 2022. We are almost half way through the year. 🙂

Can't see what can change market fundamentals, which is looking quite bad.

With the benefit of hindsight, Central Banks, must be asking them selves, how did we let inflation get this bad?

So much for 2% inflationary target held by CBs as some kind of golden rule. Data led Fed hikes looks like loadsa nonsense now. Lot of waffle with no action behind words. Just empty words.

Wishing you all the best... 👍

Ha, don't be fooled by the 2% theft target nonsense. If that unachievable level of theft wasn't bad enough, the Fed must be thinking all their birthdays have come at once with 10% inflation virtually overnight.

There's a reason why unemployment is at record lows....they can't afford to pick and choose or have a lifestyle....they MUST go to work just to service their debts.

 

[Atilla]

Ha, don't be fooled by the 2% theft target nonsense. If that unachievable level of theft wasn't bad enough, the Fed must be thinking all their birthdays have come at once with 10% inflation virtually overnight.

There's a reason why unemployment is at record lows....they can't afford to pick and choose or have a lifestyle....they MUST go to work just to service their debts.

Agree, it is the only way they can repay back debt. 💯%

 

[1nvest]

3629 for me please

 

[Oscar Reed]

3790 please

 

[Snowsword]

no idea for this week, I'll guess 3530

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

⬆️ 3942

 

[counter_violent]

3737.3 ta

 

[Velo]

3720 thanks.

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PS. Not keen on suggestions that result in an increased workload for Atilla.

 

[Velo]

Got a funny feeling US markets are closed/ on holiday today
(2nd Independence Day) or end of slavery or something, in the US.

Can get futures only for the S&P500 but all my live charts for the S&P500 are dead.

So Googled.

- And that's what it says.

Some on holiday some are not, but nothing coming through live for US stockmarkets being open today.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Got a funny feeling US markets are closed/ on holiday today
(2nd Independence Day) or end of slavery or something, in the US.

Can get futures only for the S&P500 but all my live charts for the S&P500 are dead.

So Googled.

- And that's what it says.

Some on holiday some are not, but nothing coming through live for US stockmarkets being open today.

US stock markets are closed

Juneteenth closings: Are banks and the post office open on June 20?

The Juneteenth federal holiday falls on a Sunday this year, and it will be observed in many places on Monday, June 20.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[2_bits]

3300

 

[Atilla]

Hi Everyone,

Here are the last forecasts for Quarter-2 competition.

Bit of a mixed bag this week with 6 bulls and 5 bears. Our new forecaster 2-bit is a very pessimistic bear and an outlier. The forcast range is 643. I-Cat's Paw-I is leading the bulls and is considerably more bullish than the rest of the pack.

Fed Chair Powell Testimoney should give some direction to the index over Wed/Thursday. Probably go up in hot air most probably. What could he possibly say about inflation, recession and stagflation that he hasn't said already? Personally, I think word counts more meaningful then the actual waffle. Numbers better to look at than listening to words imo.

Wishing you all a prosperous good trading week.

 

[Atilla]

Wheheyyy well done to I-Cat's Paw-I who takes his 4th gold medal and earns valuable 4 points, removing him out of negative points. 👏👏👍👍🙂

Oscar Reed and CV also find their mojo's in the last week of Quarter two picking up just enough to avoid coming last. Our previous champs have sunk considerably with the SPX index. Good call to you two as well. 👏👏

​

Quarter-2 - League Table - Scoreboard

Well the average score for this quarter was 7.1 after 13 weeks of forecasts. That is about 50/50. I wonder if there is any significance in that number???

Keep those forecasts coming folks. We will be starting Quarter 3 next week. So sharpen those forecasts.

End of Quarter-2 winner write up coming soon. 🙂

 

[Atilla]

The winner of Quarter 2 - SPX 500 Cash Call Competition is...

ATILLA

👏 👏 👏 Well done Atilla 👏👏👏


$50 in Amazon Vouchers will be awarded to you at the end of the year.

​

 

[Atilla]

Here are some numbers from the competition table folks.

League Table sorted in order of Running Total for the year.

Quick reminder, there is a $50 Amazon Voucher price money for the winner of each quarter.

Also, $100 for the final end of year podium winners, to be split in $50:$30:$20 ratios for 1st, 2nd and 3rd position in points.

Where there is a draw then the difference in gold medals will decide the winning positions.

We decided to pay all winnings at the end of the year. The annual $300 prize money is awarded by T2W.

👍🙂👍


This competition is to improve consistency in getting the trend right and forecasting trading ranges and market closing prices. Forecasting, recording and looking at these numbers over a good many years, I can sincerely state it has changed my view helping me trade better too.

I look ahead to what news announcements are in the pipeline and in particular observe trends and I favour Pivot Points a lot, picking closing levels based on PPs. PPs are also great S/R levels for turning points.

Sometimes I wonder why we don't have more bloggers forecasting?

Perhaps the answer is that it requires discipline and consistency. To be motivated enough to put the effort in. There is public humiliation too as CV and I know too well. It's all in the best possible taste, so ignore the tit-for-tats as CV is great most of the time. 😁

Anyhow, this competition is not about the money but more about learning to get trends and consistency right. Hence, the little prize money is only for those who can stay the course.

 

[Velo]

Congrats 👋 and well done Atilla on winning Q2! ✌️

Your running totals to date, would have suggested to even the most uninterested of casual observers that you were a bet most likely to score well/win this quarter.

Keep up the good work!