S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

[Atilla]

Hello all you fab forecasters, trying to catchup on the old routine and here are week 30, numbers.

We have 6 bulls and 4 bears. Cat's Paw is mighty bullish with 234 ticks in the North direction versus Weighted Average, 169 ticks due South. That's a whopping 403 point variance so big difference of opinions.

As it happens the market is just up 45 points from last weeks close. Isn't that marvellous. Big difference in views and markets says nope. Ain't moving. 0.75 basis point Fed rise really well factored in.

Wishing you all good fortunes.

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[Atilla]

Well done to I-Cat's Paw-I who takes the gold medal in Week 30. What an amazing week with another Fed 0.75% rate rise. Super call well done. 👏👏

2-Bits takes the silver and 1nvest the bronze bucket. Good calls to all the bulls.

Quarter-3 Table

Quarter-3 Leaderboard.

Cat's Paw is leading on gold medal difference.

 

[2_bits]

Great call Cat's Paw! Your forecast really stood apart from everyone elses. At first I thought you made a typo when you forecast 4,196 and thought you only meant 4,096. Way to go!

I'm looking for more bullish follow through next week. I think the bear is over and traders will be chasing price higher for a while.

Next Week: 4,240 👆

 

[1nvest]

4124 for me please

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

⬇️ 4121.2

 

[Atilla]

4090 for me

Let see how long the SPX500 can walk on air.

 

[Snowsword]

4180 please

 

[counter_violent]

4141.4 ta

 

[Velo]

4175 thanks.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Everyone,

Here we go with Week-31 forecasts. We have 7 bulls v 3 bears. Of all the hiccups in the global park, a little old lady flying off to Taiwan for a bit of oriental cuisine seems to have taken the shine off the SPX500. Who could have guessed?

The BB trend following system seems to be most bullish this week. On the other side, I am the most bearish with my forecast. How absurd is that? I am having a ding-dong with my own metric, that I created thinking what a clever clogg I was hahaha.

Now I understand Shakespears quote on how fools think. So was I a wise man when I created BB_Tfs or am I wise now to think I was a fool back then and BB_Tfs is not much good??? I'm either going to gloat or eat humble pie on Friday.

 

[Atilla]

Well well well. Collectively, Weighted Average takes the gold spot this week. Well done to all.

CV takes the silver medal and Average comes in third for the bronze.

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Leader Board

CV now leads both the Quarter-3 and the annual running total table as well.

Yours trully with my BB_Tfs I'm below the water line so markets liking inflation and rising interest rates. I guess there is still hot money to be made in industry and trade. Does it really feel like we are walking into a recession? This week has demonstrated to me I still don't know much at all. I know notink!


Wishing you all a sunny BBQs and good fun.

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[Mactheriverrat]

4210

 

[Atilla]

4105 for me.

The SPX has Nike's Air-Max Ultra runners on. Very flash

 

[1nvest]

4196

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

4235.7

 

[Snowsword]

4030 please

 

[counter_violent]

4181.4 ta

 

[Velo]

4191 thanks

 

[Atilla]

Hi guys, here goes week 32, half way through Quarter-3 in 2022. Where does the time fly?

This week we have 8 bulls and 2 bears. Markets is possessed I tell you. Inflation is certainly good for business. Everyone is upping prices.

Cat's Paw is most bullish versus Snowsword who is bearish. 205 points in forecast variance. Estimated ATR is falling along with actual ATR so market and forecasters coming to the conclusion market is indeces are where they should be.

Wishing you all good fortunes and best of most thingymijigs. What ever your desires are!

Have fun, eat well and laugh a lot.

 

[Atilla]

Wow the bulls take SPX500 up another 135 points to 4280 and I-Cats Paw-I the most bullish of all forecasters wins his 6th gold medal and 2nd spot in Quarter-3 league table. Great call I-Cats Paw-I. 👏👏

Our new comer Mactheriverrat (and my apologies for not mentioning and welcoming you sooner ) takes the silver medal earning 3 points. 1nvest get's the bronze bucket picking up an extra point. Good call guys. Well done. 👏👏

Three podium winning cool cats are...

Week 32 Results - League Table

Quarter-3 Leader Board

Wishing you all a super cool weekend of all the good stuff and no sticky things.