S&P500 - Weekly Forecasting Competition for 2022

[Atilla]

Dear Atilla, I am not a Russian competitor either
I guessed the correct direction two times out of three, my score should not be -1. I can withstand the disappointment of not getting any medals, but your magnifying glass used on July 9 made me upset

Hi Snowsword,

Very sorry and I do see on 9th July you did get 8th July call direction correct and should have been awarded 1 point instead of a -1 deduction.

I've now corrected the scoreboard.

Thank you very much for letting me know and I can assure you it is not because of your sword-wielding or possibly Russian origins or anything else come to that.

If you can all continue double-checking scoring for your selves, it'll help me keep my footing on the straight and narrow path.


Quarter 3 - Leaderboard.

2022 - Overall Leaderboard

 

[counter_violent]

3929.3 ta

 

[1nvest]

3958 for me please

 

[Snowsword]

3690. The same number as last week

 

[Atilla]

3842 for me.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

3992.3 ⬆️

 

[Velo]

Argggh!
Missed the boat - again!

Got caught elsewhere before I realised it was then well past the entry deadline.

 

[Atilla]

Argggh!
Missed the boat - again!

Got caught elsewhere before I realised it was then well past the entry deadline.

Hi Velo,

I'm sure the field wd allow your forecast if its couple of hours late once in a while. Has been known to happen.

Also guys I will not be able to do the write up until Sunday this week. I find my self in alien territory.

 

[Velo]

Thanks, Atilla. I'll bear that in mind.

- But only if I'm a little bit late and not as badly far gone, as I was this week.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Everyone, please find week 29, forecasts and results in one table below.

1nvest takes the gold medal. I-Cats Paw-I the silver and CV the bronze. Good call for the only three bulls rewarded with valuable points. 👏👏👏

​

6 bears get zilch this week.

Back to normal next week.
Do keep those forecasts coming.

Leader board for Quarter-3

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Hi Everyone, please find week 29, forecasts and results in one table below.

1nvest takes the gold medal and CV the silver - the only two bulls.

View attachment 320323

​

6 bears get zilch this week.

View attachment 320321

Back to normal next week.
Do keep those forecasts coming.

Leader board for Quarter-3
View attachment 320324

Looks like you forgot me US market opened at 3:30 p.m. AFAIK (or 4:30 p.m. GMT?)

 

[Atilla]

Looks like you forgot me US market opened at 3:30 p.m. AFAIK (or 4:30 p.m. GMT?)
View attachment 320325

Very sorry Cat's Paw. Probably because I rushed it.

I've now updated the tables above.

US markets open 14:30 GMT time. You were a little late but unless the results are very close and influence prizes most will not mind if I include it in the competition. If there are objections then we put it to a vote.

 

[2_bits]

Congrats to last week's bull forecasters! Let's see if we can get some follow through on the bull side next week.

Next week ==> 4050 ⬆️

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

4196 ⬆️

 

[Atilla]

3895 for me.

A busy week of news this week. Can't imagine it's all going to be spiffing good!

 

[Snowsword]

my guess is 3860

 

[Velo]

Looking like I could miss the deadline again if not careful, so uncharacteristically, slapping in my entry right now, of -

4020

==============

I too, would have been a bull last week, if I'd made the deadline in time
( It was 3920 a repeat of the prior week)

(Fed meeting this week (26 & 27th)

 

[counter_violent]

3838.3 Ta

 

[1nvest]

4046 please

 

[Atilla]

Hello all you fab forecasters, trying to catchup on the old routine and here are week 30, numbers.

We have 6 bulls and 4 bears. Cat's Paw is mighty bullish with 234 ticks in the North direction versus Weighted Average, 169 ticks due South. That's a whopping 403 point variance so big difference of opinions.

As it happens the market is just up 45 points from last weeks close. Isn't that marvellous. Big difference in views and markets says nope. Ain't moving. 0.75 basis point Fed rise really well factored in.

Wishing you all good fortunes.