S&P 500 weekly competition for 2012

[robster970]

Just a quick comment for those that have been calling tops for the last 3 weeks - I have noticed that Radio 4 is constantly banging on about the rally in equities across the globe and asking a.n.other economist/expert to comment on why, which has ranged from sensible stuff like outflows from bonds into equities as people look more risk on to more ethereal stuff like people are spending more money on the high st based upon a single data point.

anyway, the rally is now public so it must almost be over as the armchair investor starts eyeing up his cash and thinking of having a punt on something cheap like RBS or Lloyds.

anyway, just another robster tin-foil-hat prediction really.

 

[hwsteele]

Just a quick comment for those that have been calling tops for the last 3 weeks - I have noticed that Radio 4 is constantly banging on about the rally in equities across the globe and asking a.n.other economist/expert to comment on why, which has ranged from sensible stuff like outflows from bonds into equities as people look more risk on to more ethereal stuff like people are spending more money on the high st based upon a single data point.

anyway, the rally is now public so it must almost be over as the armchair investor starts eyeing up his cash and thinking of having a punt on something cheap like RBS or Lloyds.

anyway, just another robster tin-foil-hat prediction really.

Just remember when the shoe shine kid starts to buy it's time to sell!

 

[VielGeld]

Are you changing your original 1365 call now?

Yep. May regret it if we have a top here, but what the hey.

 

[robster970]

Yep. May regret it if we have a top here, but what the hey.

Oooh - you posted after the open but seeing as your original directive was pre-open, I'll amend

unless anybody objects?

 

[robster970]

W/E 24th February

So folks, all the votes are in:

Average: 1357.9
Wt Average: 1367.9

Up: 7
Down: 8

Linky Link to this week's predictions

Good luck folks - think we're in for an interesting week.

isatrader is the one to chase now....

 

[robster970]

W/E 24th February - Results

So the perma-bulls were tempered by the perma-bears this week with a close at 1365.74 - slightly above last week's close which makes this week's podium look like:

1) Weighted Average - 1367.9
2) Donstar - 1376
3) Bodavula - 1378

Well done Donstar and Bodavula for nicely tempered calls and to all this weeks participants with points for getting it almost on the nose with the weighted average.

isatrader still tops the table right now and is pulling away slightly from Donstar in 2nd and myself and the Weighted Average occupying joint 3rd.

Link to full results spreadsheet

 

[hwsteele]

Congrats to the winners. Guess I should have gone with the move up this week.:whistling

 

[VielGeld]

Darn it. If I hadn't made the switch to my Black Swan, I'd have been off by a mere .7 point. Woe is me.

Congrats to the winners! Cooler heads prevailed this week. :smart:

 

[Pat494]

So sucks to neural nets - they just aren't there yet !

 

[robster970]

So chaps, if you take a look at the sheet, you'll see I've done some basic analysis of our performance from the beginning of the year:

a) I have calculated the individual average and sum of the deviations from the EoW target - you can get a sense of whether you under or overshoot your calls

b) On a second sheet called Group Stats you will see that as a group, we underestimate the call by approx 1 Standard Deviation, thus telling me we tend to be a group of perma-bears! The -ve skew also confirms this for me.

e2a - I modeled the distribution of averages, you can see for yourselves that in Q1, people have had a bearish bias pretty much all the way through the quarter as those with +ve averages are certainly on the right of the distribution.

 

[robster970]

One thing that does strike home for me with the above analysis is how trends manage to sustain themselves. Whilst 'money' has been buying since 16th Dec '11, people like us, on aggregate are acting as willing counter-parties on these trades by being constantly bearish and allowing them to trade at increasingly higher prices........

The often quoted maxim that retail traders are often on the wrong side of the market may have some substance here.

 

[hwsteele]

So chaps, if you take a look at the sheet, you'll see I've done some basic analysis of our performance from the beginning of the year:

a) I have calculated the individual average and sum of the deviations from the EoW target - you can get a sense of whether you under or overshoot your calls

b) On a second sheet called Group Stats you will see that as a group, we underestimate the call by approx 1 Standard Deviation, thus telling me we tend to be a group of perma-bears! The -ve skew also confirms this for me.

e2a - I modeled the distribution of averages, you can see for yourselves that in Q1, people have had a bearish bias pretty much all the way through the quarter as those with +ve averages are certainly on the right of the distribution.

I have to say I love a brain that has to play with numbers. The more stats the happier I am.
I know, I KNOW, you don't have to tell me how much of a nerd I am...
My girlfriend points that out to me enough.

 

[hwsteele]

One thing that does strike home for me with the above analysis is how trends manage to sustain themselves. Whilst 'money' has been buying since 16th Dec '11, people like us, on aggregate are acting as willing counter-parties on these trades by being constantly bearish and allowing them to trade at increasingly higher prices........

The often quoted maxim that retail traders are often on the wrong side of the market may have some substance here.

The old story about the banker and the shoe shine boy would be good right about now.
It works in reverse too.

 

[robster970]

So I will cast the first vote this week - 1374 for me. Don't think it's quite ready to come down yet.

 

[Pat494]

Have to agree about the up again - 1372

Oil prices should rocket up tho when the Iranian oil is shut off !

 

[tar]

down week 1348

 

[isatrader]

It's still making higher highs every week, so until that changes I'm staying long.

1378 please

 

[hwsteele]

I do believe the up move has a bit of go left so I will say 1368 for Friday March 2nd.

 

[tar]

for Friday March 2nd.

u didnt have to say that

 

[VielGeld]

1380 for moi, danke.