S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[DionysusToast]

Still OK - got the overnight high to get over. Leaving final target at 1456 as that's into the area I'd be considering a short.

I'm more than happy to let this come all the way back - rightly or wrongly...

 

[DionysusToast]

Got up to 1456, 1005 traded and I was one of them.... It did go through again later - but it's always nice to get a fill first time there.

MAE on the trade was 1 tick but I did go in at market so I got the offer of 1449.25 and at the time the bid was 1449 - so it did trade some more at the bid but it didn't actually tick down to a lower bid after the entry.

Target 1 - 4 ticks
Target 2 - 13 ticks
Target 3 - 27 ticks

 

[robster970]

Target 1 - 4 ticks
Target 2 - 13 ticks
Target 3 - 27 ticks

You're on fire :clap:

 

[robster970]

BTW Pedro, I've been reading an interesting thread over at TradersLab written by a guy called steve46 - probably worth a look.

 

[DionysusToast]

Thanks for the tip Rob - I'll have a shuftee over there & have a read.

In terms of the results, it has been an exceptional few days and I am hoping it's down to the shift to just playing levels and not jumping on opportunities on the way to a level, which cuts off the move.

Probably blind luck to be honest.

Wizzard - I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday - YouTube

 

[robster970]

Thanks for the tip Rob - I'll have a shuftee over there & have a read.

In terms of the results, it has been an exceptional few days and I am hoping it's down to the shift to just playing levels and not jumping on opportunities on the way to a level, which cuts off the move.

Probably blind luck to be honest.

Wizzard - I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday - YouTube

The thread is in the E-mini section of the web site. Most notably about his method (well at least for me):

a) He derives where the mean value area is which changes daily. This makes contextualising mean reversion based upon short and long term participants interesting

b) He has formalised and structured how you and I trade off the known levels not just for ES but on NQ too but formed around this mean and the behaviours of the short and long term participants.

Incidentally it hasn't gone unnoticed (by me at least) that your results have got better since you traded around known areas. How do you get on with fighting the temptation to just take a shot?

 

[Pat494]

Thu Oct 18

1:30am AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -2 -3
3:00am CNY GDP q/y 7.4% 7.4% 7.6%
3:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 20.5% 20.2% 20.2%
3:00am CNY Industrial Production y/y 9.2% 9.0% 8.9%
3:00am CNY NBS Press Conference
3:00am CNY Retail Sales y/y 14.2% 13.2% 13.2%
7:00am CHF Trade Balance 2.01B 2.42B 1.61B
Day 1 EUR EU Economic Summit
9:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.4% -0.1%
9:47am EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 5.46|1.9 5.67|2.8
1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.2% -0.6%
1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 367K 339K
3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 1.3 -1.9
3:00pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.1% -0.1%
3:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 46B 72B
10:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 5.4%

 

[DionysusToast]

Incidentally it hasn't gone unnoticed (by me at least) that your results have got better since you traded around known areas. How do you get on with fighting the temptation to just take a shot?

It took a while to do. I got through most of September NOT implementing the change I said I'd make @ the start of September.

So - I did what I said I'd do - it just took many days of not doing it & looking back a the day and "seeing what you could have won"...

Anyway - I'm off to Phuket for 9 days. Mothers here, so no trading for me for a week and a bit....

Madonna - Holiday [Official Music Video] - YouTube

 

[Pat494]

Framework for banking union by end of 2012

European Union leaders, according reports from Reuters, have agreed on a legal roadmap to establish a single bank supervisor for the union. A text of draft conclusions on the first day of talks in the ongoing EU summit in Brussels said leaders struck a deal on "the objective of completing the legal framework by the end of the year" with implementation "in the course of 2013", Reuters said. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn commented, cited by Reuters, that reaching such deal is key "to break the vicious circle between sovereigns and banks". Framework for banking union by end of 2012, completion by early 2014, and is to cover 6,000 banks, according to a French official.

They added that potential for direct bank recapitalization from bailout funds in 2013. However, the German counterparts have denied that bank recapitalization can take place in early 2013. From German government source cited by Reuters: "Direct recapitalization of banks in first qtr of 2013 is ‘very unlikely’. Can only begin once an effective single banking supervisor is in place. ECB will be responsible for systemically important banks, but will oversee other banks if necessary. There will be a mix of supervision between ECB and national supervisors." Frictions between Germany and France on how to go about the banking supervisor authority had been a troubling sticking point, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanding stronger authority to veto national budgets that breach EU rules, while French President Francois Hollande had been more supportive of moving towards a European banking union.

 

[Pat494]

Another day at the coal face

 

[Pat494]

Fri Oct 19

3:00am CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y -3.8% -3.4%
3:09am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 1.5% 1.9%
5:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.1% 0.2% -0.6%
7:00am EUR German PPI m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
7:35am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
9:00am EUR Current Account 8.8B 11.3B 8.1B
Day 2 EUR EU Economic Summit
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 10.7B 11.9B 10.8B
1:30pm CAD Core CPI m/m 0.3% 0.3%
1:30pm CAD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 4.73M 4.82M

 

[robster970]

Another day at the coal face

Fade Pat!

 

[robster970]

It took a while to do. I got through most of September NOT implementing the change I said I'd make @ the start of September.

I still fall into pot shots from time to time and then regret it...

 

[VielGeld]

A quick Q for the resident experts regarding yesterday's move...

So basically, sharp sell-off as Google mis-announces its earnings. Did anyone see it coming?

I was thinking it would go down today, but certainly not in such a dramatic fashion. More like yesterday was simply an up day and it didn't seem to hold, so it might sell off for a bit. That's how I saw it...

I really pity anyone caught unaware.

 

[DionysusToast]

A quick Q for the resident experts regarding yesterday's move...

So basically, sharp sell-off as Google mis-announces its earnings. Did anyone see it coming?

I was thinking it would go down today, but certainly not in such a dramatic fashion. More like yesterday was simply an up day and it didn't seem to hold, so it might sell off for a bit. That's how I saw it...

I really pity anyone caught unaware.

Everything is known in advance...

17th October

Now:

 

[GrandSupercycle]

EURUSD & SPX leg down strengthens after latest bounce.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/156446-market-analysis-5.html

 

[Pat494]

Worth watching

 

[Pat494]

Worth watching

That was a quickie in and out.
I hope noone lingered !
I try to sit and watch when I am in the market, to jump when necessary.

 

[Pat494]

MonOct 22

12:50am JPY Trade Balance -0.98T -0.74T -0.46T
1:30am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
4:50am AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
6:30pm USD FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks

 

[Splitlink]

That was a quickie in and out.
I hope noone lingered !
I try to sit and watch when I am in the market, to jump when necessary.

In and out like a dose of salts! I've been in and out with 3 trades, this afternoon---5 points in total!