S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

Fri
Oct 12 12:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.4% 0.5% -0.7%
12:50am JPY CGPI y/y -1.4% -1.4% -1.9%
12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
Day 1 ALL IMF Meetings
6:45am GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks
8:30am CNY New Loans 623B 665B 704B
10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 0.6% -0.4% 0.6%
10:00am GBP CB Leading Index m/m 0.2% 0.1%
1:30pm USD PPI m/m 0.8% 1.7%
1:30pm USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%

2:30pm JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
2:55pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 78.1 78.3
2:55pm USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.3%

5:35pm USD FOMC Member Lacker Speaks
7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance 59.0B -190.5B
 
Mon Oct 15

12:01am GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 3.5% -0.6%
1:30am AUD Home Loans m/m 1.8% 1.4% -0.7%
1:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 4.7% 4.3%
2:30am CNY CPI y/y 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
2:30am CNY PPI y/y -3.6% -3.4% -3.5%
5:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m -1.6% -1.3% -1.3%
8:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
1:00pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.8%
1:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.9%
1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index -4.5 -10.4
3:00pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.8%

3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
5:45pm USD FOMC Member Lacker Speaks
8:20pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
10:45pm NZD CPI q/q 0.5% 0.3%
 
..


LONDON, Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) 15 (Reuters) - * U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street on Monday, mirroring gains in Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) . Futures for the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC - news) , the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI - news) and the Nasdaq 100 (Nasdaq: ^NDX - news) were up 0.3 to 0.7 percent.

* European shares rose 0.5 percent in early trade, reversing the previous session's dip, as hopes Spain will request a bailout eclipsed investors' worries about the corporate earnings season.

* Spain could ask for financial aid from the euro zone next month and if it does the request would likely be dealt with alongside a revised loan programme for Greece and a bailout for Cyprus in one big package, euro zone officials said.

* The U.S. Commerce Department releases retail sales figures for September at 1230 GMT. Economists expect a 0.8 percent rise, compared with a 0.9 percent increase in August.

* Amazon.com Inc, the world's largest Internet retailer, is in advanced talks to buy the mobile chip business of Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN - news) , Israeli financial newspaper Calcalist reported on Monday.

* New York Federal Reserve releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October at 1230 GMT. Economists expect a reading of -4.55, compared with -10.41 in September.

* Citigroup Inc (NYSEArca: BUW - news) announces results on Monday after earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase (NYSEArca: BJG - news) & Co and Wells Fargo & Co sparked concern about shrinking profit margins for big lenders despite both reporting stronger-than-expected profits. That led U.S. stocks to wrap up their worst week in four months on Friday.

* The Commerce Department issues Business Inventories figures for August at 1400 GMT. Economists expect a rise of 0.5 percent, versus a 0.8 percent gain in the prior month.

* Shares in Italy's Fiat Industrial fell 0.7 percent on Monday after its U.S. unit CNH said it rejected the terms of a proposed merger between the two companies.

* Sales growth in the global luxury market will slow this year to 5 percent from 13 percent in 2011 at constant exchange rates as Chinese customers rein in their spending and concerns about the global economy take their toll, a study by Bain & Co together with Italian luxury goods trade body Altagamma said.

* Benign inflation in September showed China has scope to ease policy even as evidence mounts that earlier pro-growth measures are gaining traction, reducing the pressure on policymakers to act as a once-a-decade leadership transition approaches.

* The Dow Jones industrial average edged up 2.46 points, or 0.02 percent, to 13,328.85 at the close. But the S&P 500 fell 4.25 points, or 0.30 percent, to finish at 1,428.59. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 5.30 points, or 0.17 percent, to 3,044.11.
..
 
In a bit of a rush today - will come back to this time permitting...

15th October, 2012

Europe Up, Asia Up

10-15-20128-22-21AM.png


We have a line in the sand there @ 1414.50. If we break that then I think the downside looks good. We had a peek down to 1416.50 today and we are up 13 points from there, so we may well now be headed back to the top end of our range. I’m still long biased overall right now.

Business inventories @ 10am
Volume above average
Mechanical Levels –
YH – 1434.50, YL – 1420, YC – 1421.75, ONL 1416.50, ONH – 1430.25 (so far)

Longs 1426.50, 1425, 1421.75, 1420, 1417.25, 1416.50, 1412.50
Shorts – 1446.75, 1439.50, 1434.50
 
Tue Oct 16

1:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
1:30am USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
9:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.60B 2.57B 4.51B
9:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.2% 2.2% 2.5%
9:30am GBP PPI Input m/m -0.2% 0.0% 1.9%
9:30am GBP RPI y/y 2.6% 2.6% 2.9%
9:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
9:30am GBP HPI y/y 1.8% 1.9% 2.0%
9:30am GBP PPI Output m/m 0.5% 0.3% 0.5%
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -11.5 -14.6 -18.2
10:00am EUR CPI y/y 2.6% 2.7% 2.7%
10:00am EUR Core CPI y/y 1.5% 1.6% 1.5%
10:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -1.4 -1.1 -3.8
10:00am EUR Trade Balance 9.9B 8.4B 7.2B
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 8.72B 6.67B
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 0.3% -1.5%
1:30pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
1:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.4% 0.6%
2:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 45.3B 67.0B
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.4% 78.2%
2:15pm USD Industrial Production m/m 0.2% -1.2%
3:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 41 40
 
October 16th

8:30 - Core CPI/CPO
9:00 - TIC Long Term
9:15 - Capacity Utilization, Ind Production,
10:00 - NAHB Housing

10-16-20127-56-53AM.png


Still expecting it to carry on up to 1460.... Looks like we'll open above yesterdays range.

Mechanical Levels

YL - 1416.50, YH - 1436.50, YC - 1436.25, ONL - 1424.50, ONH - too early to tell....

Longs - 1436.50, 1434.50/25, 1422.50, 1420, 1416.50, 1417.25
Shorts - 1457.25, 1447.50, 1446.75, ONH

Not looking to short tbh - unless something develops intraday
 
You back now? Be nice to see you around here again...

I am.

2 trades, 1 tick down for the day. Both shorts.

That was quite interesting. Felt a bit rusty. First trade was at 14:54 filled at 1444.50 with an exit filled at 1444.75 at 14:56 when it was telling me I was wrong

Second was interesting though - filled at 1445.00 at 14:57 as it was starting to roll over. Made it as far as 44.50, seemed like it was base building and it was 21k contracts thrown in at 15:25 which where absorbed that made me think that whoever was holding this up was serious and perhaps I shouldn't be trying to trade against them. So with a bit of tradecraft, scratched.
 
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I'm long right now - waiting for it to work out...

10-16-20129-44-25AM.png


I got long and panicked out 'cause I hit it twice & ended up with double my normal size.

I then got long again after slapping myself. Keeps the broker happy anyway...

10-16-201210-32-52AM.png


Got 1 last bit on & looking for 1449, although there's a bit of a tussle here @ 1447...
 
I can't see anything materialising for me for the rest of day now. I wasn't sure when it was paused around 44/45 whether it was base building or rolling over. As it opened out of range to upside and it seemed to not have a lot of momentum out of the open I was looking to fade the move. In hindsight both trades were a bit on the trigger happy side.
 
Wed Oct 17

12:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.5% 0.3%
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -4.0K -0.2K -14.2K
9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9 0-0-9
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 7.9% 8.1% 8.1%
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 1.7% 1.6% 1.6%
10:00am CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -28.9 -34.9
10:15am GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks
1:30pm USD Building Permits 0.81M 0.80M
1:30pm USD Housing Starts 0.77M 0.75M
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M 1.7M
 
17th October

10-17-20127-55-38AM.png


Whilst I don't expect this range to last forever, I still favour us topping out & heading back to low 1400's.

LVN @ 1460.75 - but I'd expect we'd at least test 1468 again rather than bouncing off the LVN, perhaps even a pop thru 1468 to see if there's buyers up there.

Mechanical Levels

YH 1451.50, YL 1434.50, YC 1449.50, ONL 1446.25, ONH ???

Shorts - 1457, 1460.75, 1468, ONH
Longs - 1451.50, 1449.50, 1441
 
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Here's my first trade of the day.

My "support" level in this case was yesterdays close - the 1449.50 level from my prior post.

Market actually moved to 1448.50. Entry was a bit late but I was 'chicken' and got in 1-2 ticks worst than I could have.

10-17-20129-36-41AM.png


Target 1 already done by the time I posted this - need to get thru 1451.50 and then I think I'm good.
 
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