S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[robster970]

Failed to get filled at 11.25 on ES. Should have whacked in a market order.

 

[DionysusToast]

In Singapore right now. Hotel is right next to a casino.

Chances of trading < 0.

 

[Shakone]

In Singapore right now. Hotel is right next to a casino.

Chances of trading < 0.

You can't have a less than 0 probability buddy. You could have a 0 probability, but then trading would be possible.

I don't know how you can play in the casino. I can't take gambles where the odds are against me any more.

 

[robster970]

I don't know how you can play in the casino. I can't take gambles where the odds are against me any more.

Are you married with children?

 

[Shakone]

Are you married with children?

Not yet Rob, although that's not too far off. Well the first part anyway 🙂

 

[robster970]

Not yet Rob, although that's not too far off. Well the first part anyway 🙂

Congratulations :clap:

It is probably the only worthwhile irrational gamble worth taking btw. 😀

 

[DionysusToast]

You can't have a less than 0 probability buddy. You could have a 0 probability, but then trading would be possible.

I don't know how you can play in the casino. I can't take gambles where the odds are against me any more.

Well - I sure don't go to supplement my income.

 

[robster970]

7:53GMT and 207k contracts traded overnight in ES Asian session alone.

For those that don't know, this is about 3-4 times the normal amount for this time of day.

 

[Pat494]

Wed
Nov 7

12:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 1.5% 1.0%
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 424.4B 429.5B
8:15am CHF CPI m/m 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 0.1%
11:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.4% -0.5%
Tentative EUR Greek Gov Debt Crisis Vote
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.8M -2.0M
6:00pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 1.70|3.3
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 10.1B 18.1B
9:45pm NZD Employment Change q/q 0.3% -0.1%
9:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 6.7% 6.8%
11:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -1.9% -3.3%
11:50pm JPY Current Account 0.21T 0.72T
11:50pm JPY Bank Lending y/y 1.0%

UK winter time

 

[robster970]

There has been a lot of Open-Drive/Open-Test-Drive starts to the day recently and if you know how to spot them then you should have made a few bob recently...

 

[Pat494]

There has been a lot of Open-Drive/Open-Test-Drive starts to the day recently and if you know how to spot them then you should have made a few bob recently...

Come on then - explain all

 

[robster970]

Come on then - explain all

You need volume on your chart Pat but it often boils down to rejection of established trading ranges and if you can see volume build up at the extremity of the range then it is likely that on the open, those rejecting the range are already positioned and drive price away from the range.

You can see it on a price chart but it confirms nicely with volume. This gives confidence to enter with those already positioned and ride it out with them.

 

[robster970]

Annotated image for you Pat - might make more sense.

 

[robster970]

I did warn that today was not normal

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/ind...dexes-intraday-plus-chat-381.html#post2008640

 

[robster970]

Finally a link for those who trade ES during Asian and European sessions with regards to change in times for the trading day.

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/faq-eq-hours-and-limits.pdf

 

[Pat494]

Fri Nov 9

12:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
1:29am CNY CPI y/y 1.7% 1.9% 1.9%
1:29am CNY PPI y/y -2.8% -2.7% -3.6%
5:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 39.7 39.7 40.1
5:30am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 20.7% 20.6% 20.5%
5:30am CNY Industrial Production y/y 9.6% 9.5% 9.2%
5:30am CNY Retail Sales y/y 14.5% 14.4% 14.2%
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m -2.7% -0.9% 1.9%
7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -85.0B -97.7B
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -1.5% -1.4% 1.7%
9:30am GBP Trade Balance -8.4B -9.1B -10.0B
10:00am GBP CB Leading Index m/m 0.2% 0.2%
1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 0.0% 1.1%
2:55pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 82.6 82.6
2:55pm USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
3:00pm USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.5%
6:05pm USD President Obama Speaks

GMT

 

[robster970]

Already traded today. Finished for the week now.

 

[Pat494]

Thanks for explaining.
In return I will put forward an idea of mine.
Using my weighted average method, I have my 4 best indicators for daily forecasts set to make a single best daily forecast. It's not perfect but better than just single indicators.

 

[robster970]

Thanks for explaining.
In return I will put forward an idea of mine.
Using my weighted average method, I have my 4 best indicators for daily forecasts set to make a single best daily forecast. It's not perfect but better than just single indicators.

What does your forecast say for today out of curiosity?

Although I'm not going to trade it, I would expect a re-test of yesterday's RTH low around 1370-1372 before continuing down to about 1348 area on ES.

 

[Pat494]

What does your forecast say for today out of curiosity?

Although I'm not going to trade it, I would expect a re-test of yesterday's RTH low around 1370-1372 before continuing down to about 1348 area on ES.

It says durrah - 1384.3