S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[Pat494]

That's my baby

 

[Pat494]

Yup it has broken through support

 

[Pat494]

Tue Sep 11

12:01am GBP RICS House Price Balance -19% -22% -23%
12:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 2.5 -6.1 -5.7
12:50am JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.4% 2.3% 2.2%
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence -2 3
3:00am CNY New Loans 704B 605B 540B
6:30am EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
7:00am EUR German WPI m/m 1.1% 0.3% 0.3%
7:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -2.6% -6.7%
9:30am GBP Trade Balance -8.9B -10.1B
1:15pm CAD Housing Starts 203K 209K
1:30pm CAD Trade Balance -1.4B -1.8B
1:30pm USD Trade Balance -44.2B -42.9B
3:00pm USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 47.3 45.6
6:15pm GBP MPC Member Miles Speaks

 

[DionysusToast]

So I chose not to take the long too - I was looking for 34.25 shortly after 14:45 as well but I felt it was too ambiguous and decided not to participate.

I hear you there.

 

[DionysusToast]

11th September

Wondering if we'll mark out a new balance area here or go back down. You can see the balance areas have become more compressed. All down to the FED I guess.

Yesterday’s VPOC was – 1435.75. So – even though we moved down value didn’t. For us to continue up, we need to get back up to that level and continue building value there.
Will also be looking to see if we hold yesterday’s low

Longs : 1426.25 (YC), 1425.75 (YL), 1421.50 (ONL) 1419.50, 1414.25
Shorts : 1438.75 (year high), 1438 (YH), 1435.75 – yesterday’s VPOC, 1432.50 – point from which we broke down yesterday

 

[Pat494]

Wed Sep 12

12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 4.6% 1.7% 5.6%
12:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -0.8% -0.4% 0.2%
12:50am JPY CGPI y/y -1.8% -1.9% -2.2%
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 1.6% -2.5%
2:30am AUD Housing Starts q/q 4.6% 2.7% -7.8%
6:30am EUR French CPI m/m 0.7% 0.5% -0.4%
7:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
9:00am EUR German Constitutional Court Ruling
9:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.2% -0.5% -1.3%
All Day EUR Dutch Parliamentary Election
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 0.1K -5.9K
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 8.0% 8.0%
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 1.5% 1.6%
10:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 0.0% -0.6%
10:00am GBP CB Leading Index m/m -0.3%
12:00pm GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
1:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 1.4% -0.6%
3:00pm USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.3% -0.2%
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M -7.4M
6:00pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 1.68|2.5
10:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50%
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 49.4

 

[Pat494]

Here is a 2 hour chart for today - looks like an up day to me.

2.10 pm sorry forgot the chart.

 

[robster970]

I've been doing some trade analysis over the last couple of days and some things struck me, some of it about myself, some of it about trade selection:

a) The best reversals on ES take about 4-5mins to make the turn

b) If the move has not materially gained ground in 3-4mins from entry, you should be using a bit of tradecraft to get out of it to cover costs/scratch the trade. This is possible because there is usually some consolidation going on if ground is not gained but your stop has not been hit in that period.

c) If you stopped out within 4-5 mins, then you just got it wrong. If this is the case, take a look to see if any volume spike preceded the turn that convinced you take the entry.

d) I am way too hasty in my entries - it accounts for the bulk of my losers.

e) I can see why DT scales out some of his position at 1pt.

 

[Pat494]

I've been doing some trade analysis over the last couple of days and some things struck me, some of it about myself, some of it about trade selection:

a) The best reversals on ES take about 4-5mins to make the turn

b) If the move has not materially gained ground in 3-4mins from entry, you should be using a bit of tradecraft to get out of it to cover costs/scratch the trade. This is possible because there is usually some consolidation going on if ground is not gained but your stop has not been hit in that period.

c) If you stopped out within 4-5 mins, then you just got it wrong. If this is the case, take a look to see if any volume spike preceded the turn that convinced you take the entry.

d) I am way too hasty in my entries - it accounts for the bulk of my losers.

e) I can see why DT scales out some of his position at 1pt.

Know thyself :smart:

 

[Pat494]

The NEW Apple phone is due out today.

Will it produce icecream ?

 

[DionysusToast]

September 12th
10:00 – wholesale IV
1:00 – Bond Auction

Europe & Asia both up.
Tuesday’s day session held Mondays low and value seems to be holding. Pretty much the same situation as yesterday.

My guess is we’ll see 1450 before we head back down to establish a range.Buy stops above.

Longs 1430.50 (YC)1428.50-75 (ONH), 1427, 1425.75, 1421.50, 1419.50, 1414.25
Shorts 1450, 1440,1437.50 (YH

 

[robster970]

I always find it really irritating when you sit there for 85mins of a session and the only good set-up you have, you fail to get on the bus for...

 

[Pat494]

I always find it really irritating when you sit there for 85mins of a session and the only good set-up you have, you fail to get on the bus for...

Know what you mean
Gotta analyse why though
and rectify

 

[robster970]

Know what you mean
Gotta analyse why though
and rectify

Saw 33.75 get sticky. Figure I should jump in.

Bid 34.00. 34.50 goes offer. Pulled order.
Bid 34.25. 34.75 goes offer. Pulled order.

Should have gone bid 33.75 - waited another 1min and missed the boat. Either too early or too late

 

[Pat494]

Talking about sitting in front of the computer - I let my mind wander in the slack periods and occasionally come up with a neat idea or two.

For instance you might say ?

Well only today I was thinking of cars and traffic jams etc. Why not says I, have not another flying car but a flying motor cycle. Ah you might say what about attaching wings ?
Yes not an easy subject unless you discard wings and have a parachute. Very stable. For power there is the motorcycle engine driving a rear propellor.

To steer it one only needs a pointed cover over the front wheel.

Up/down a simple small wing projecting either side which can be tilted.

All I need is a competent team of engineers and hey presto we fly for Britain.

What do you think ?

 

[counter_violent]

Talking about sitting in front of the computer - I let my mind wander in the slack periods and occasionally come up with a neat idea or two.

For instance you might say ?

Well only today I was thinking of cars and traffic jams etc. Why not says I, have not another flying car but a flying motor cycle. Ah you might say what about attaching wings ?
Yes not an easy subject unless you discard wings and have a parachute. Very stable. For power there is the motorcycle engine driving a rear propellor.

To steer it one only needs a pointed cover over the front wheel.

Up/down a simple small wing projecting either side which can be tilted.

All I need is a competent team of engineers and hey presto we fly for Britain.

What do you think ?

Keep taking the tablets.

 

[robster970]

So this is a good example of the type of reversal I was on about in the other post. The numbers below correspond to the numbers on the chart.

(1) Nice sustained trend, went on for a good 20mins or so with wave after wave of sell-off. Sellers definitely got the upper hand

(2) Note the volume of contracts traded at 15:47 - about 10k in 1min but look how price has not materially moved that much - first indication that buyers may be coming in and sell order flow is drying up - start the clock

3) By 15:52, we have a nice, U-turn in price with clear indication that buyers have got the upper hand because there are no more sellers coming in - look at the volume.

4) Momentum traders jump in - this was my mistake, waiting until then when the rest of the crowd jump in and with me trading limit orders, never getting filled.

5) Look how it takes off with hardly any offside from entry, maybe a tick for 10 ticks before it starts to look tired.

 

[Pat494]

Keep taking the tablets.

Tsk tsk untether your imagination and fly

any engineers out there ?

 

[Pat494]

So this is a good example of the type of reversal I was on about in the other post. The numbers below correspond to the numbers on the chart.

(1) Nice sustained trend, went on for a good 20mins or so with wave after wave of sell-off. Sellers definitely got the upper hand

(2) Note the volume of contracts traded at 15:47 - about 10k in 1min but look how price has not materially moved that much - first indication that buyers may be coming in - start the clock

3) By 15:52, we have a nice, U-turn in price with clear indication that buyers have got the upper hand because there are no more sellers coming in - look at the volume.

4) Momentum traders jump in - this was my mistake, waiting until then when the rest of the crowd jump in and with me trading limit orders, never getting filled.

5) Look how it takes off with hardly any offside from entry, maybe a tick for 10 ticks before it starts to look tired.

Yes if only

 

[robster970]

Hello Leonard

When are you coming out of self-imposed exile?

@Pat - what time this morning did you start on the Brandy?