S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

[Pat494]

Fri Sep 7

12:30am AUD AIG Construction Index 32.2 32.6
2:30am AUD Trade Balance -0.56B -0.30B -0.23B
6:00am JPY Leading Indicators 91.8% 91.7% 93.2%
6:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
7:00am EUR German Trade Balance 16.1B 15.5B 16.3B
7:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -85.5B -56.7B
7:45am EUR French Trade Balance -4.3B -5.7B -6.1B
8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 418.4B 408.6B
9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 2.1% -2.9%
9:30am GBP PPI Input m/m 1.6% 1.3%
9:30am GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.7%
9:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m 1.6% -2.5%
9:30am GBP PPI Output m/m 0.2% 0.0%
11:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.9%
1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m -1.5% -2.5%
1:30pm CAD Employment Change 9.9K -30.4K
1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.3% 7.3%
1:30pm CAD Labor Productivity q/q 0.0% 0.1%
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 123K 163K
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.3%
1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.1%
3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 61.2 62.8
3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate -0.2%
4:40pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks

 

[DionysusToast]

September 7th
8:30 – Tone of news, including NFP
Europe up, Asia well up

NFP will obviously set the tone.

Then we have to think about more vertical development or back into the range. We are above value of the old range but we may well be moving up to start a new one.

Will be looking at the prior high @ 1424.75 as a line in the sand as well as 1430, yesterdays VPOC. There’s no real pullback yesterday but 1425-1426 looks a good spot for a test today.

So – longs will be 1430, 1424.75-1426
Shorts – if it does down through 1424.75 I’ll be looking for a pullback to that level for a short.

Mechanical levels
YH – 1432.25, YL 1403.25, YC – 1430.75
Overnight levels I am sure will change @ 8:30

 

[robster970]

Sell-off I reckon.

 

[DionysusToast]

Fade Rob!

I favour sideways today....

 

[DionysusToast]

Nothing here - my phones been ringing all through.

I missed the bounce of YH just after the open, putting in a bid@ 1432.75 when we were bid 1433 - it never came back and didn't fill me. Should have just got in @ market.

Then a few calls and I really don't like what I see with this range. I'm done. No trades.

 

[kimo'sabby]

1435.00 has done over 100k contracts, doesn't happen alot. fives and zeros are rarely traded, it's always just above or just below in the main, with 2.5s and 7.5s in second place.

Very constrained the ES.

 

[kimo'sabby]

how much writing do you lot do? i have trade forms, account forms and stats forms and a journal, all filled out by hand. I do print off acc. statements, but i like to write everything down.

 

[robster970]

DT wins. Today's trades. +8 ticks after commissions. Fade the high, cover, thought this was just a pullback, went short, covered and reversed, closed.

14:48 CME S 1R 143600 ES Sep12
14:55 CME B 1R 143400 ES Sep12
15:01 CME S 1R 143325 ES Sep12
15:04 CME B 2R 143425 ES Sep12
15:06 CME S 1R 143525 ES Sep12

@Kimo - I have a big spreadsheet I fill in after every trade. I also take a screenshot, annotate the screenshot and link to it in the spreadsheet. The spreadsheet has lots of things in it to analyse trades and I classify trades to allow me to look at individual set-up/exit behaviour. I do this for both real and sim. I get an automated daily statement from the brokerage and I get a monthly reconcilliation report. There are lots of stats I can get at on the brokerage customer portal which are useful. My accountant does my accounts.

Basically, a lot.

 

[kimo'sabby]

Fade Rob!

I favour sideways today....

Flat Friday, especially after yesterdays move, didn't expect much.

 

[robster970]

Flat Friday, especially after yesterdays move, didn't expect much.

Me neither really but I thought we'd get a bit more noise off the number - I didn't expect it to sit in the overnight range.

 

[kimo'sabby]

Me neither really but I thought we'd get a bit more noise off the number - I didn't expect it to sit in the overnight range.

I think everyones just relieved it's actually made a decision (yesterday). Let's go at it again next week.

 

[robster970]

I think everyones just relieved it's actually made a decision (yesterday). Let's go at it again next week.

Cue profit taking on Monday after a failed attempt to push higher......

 

[kimo'sabby]

Cue profit taking on Monday after a failed attempt to push higher......

Maybe a little pullback? I'll worry if it breaks 1430.00, in this type of situation it normally pushes slightly higher through the week.

 

[DionysusToast]

10th September, 2012.

Asia flat, Europe flat.



A new range forming?

Ok - a thumbnail today - you should be able to click & open it.

This is a market profile - but seperating the day and overnight sessions. I like this view today because it shows how we broke out and where the 'lines in the sand are'

The new high - 1438.75
Fridays low - 1430.50
Naked VPOC just below Fridays low - 1430
Single Print @ 1426, just above the prior high of 1425.25 - Single prints are areas we didn't spend much time, the highest on Thursday is the point before we started to see some price acceptance.

The point we broke out from on Friday 1413.25 (not counting those few single prints above).

We are set to open below Fridays close, so the close price of 1438 is also relevant. We are still within Fridays range though and not much movement overseas, so expecting a rotational day.

Shorts - 1438.75. 1438
Longs - 1430-1430.50, 1425.25-1426, 1413.25

 

[Pat494]

Mon Sep 10

12:50am JPY Current Account 0.34T 0.39T 0.77T
12:50am JPY Final GDP q/q 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
12:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 0.9% 0.7%
12:50am JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y -0.9% -1.1% -1.1%
2:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -1.0% 0.1% 1.0%
2:35am NZD REINZ HPI m/m 1.3% -0.7%
4:03am CNY Trade Balance 26.7B 18.9B 25.1B
6:00am JPY Household Confidence 40.5 39.6 39.7
7:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 43.6 43.6 44.2
7:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.2% -0.5% 0.0%
9:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -23.2 -30.4 -30.3
8:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 9.1B 6.5B

Not much in the diary today.

 

[DionysusToast]

First I was afraid, I was petrified...

Took a long trade @ 1434.25, when it failed to get to the ONH. I then talked my way out of it and got out @ b/e

And I grew strong, and I learned how to get along (well, a short)

Still holding - ended up taking 4 off @ 1436.50 because of the low volatility - will leave one to see if we get the range and get out @ b/e if we don't.

Trades like that first one make me thing I'd be better of scaling in, not out.

 

[robster970]

Trades like that first one make me thing I'd be better of scaling in, not out.

So I chose not to take the long too - I was looking for 34.25 shortly after 14:45 as well but I felt it was too ambiguous and decided not to participate.

 

[Pat494]

This could happen soon - 5 min chart

 

[Pat494]

This could happen soon - 5 min chart

Sitting tight to see if it breaks support line

 

[Pat494]

It's into a mini bounce but because the fall is steep I am not convinced this is it's low.