S&P 500 & other indexes - intraday. Plus chat

2nd August

News @10am – Factory orders.

The push up through 1376.50, potentially to new highs, appears to be failing. The high we got to was 1387.50 in the end.

We’ve been moving sideways for a number of days and whilst that kneejerk 30 minutes ago does look very bearish, there’s still a fair chance we will move back into this narrow range & carry on with it.

8-2-20129-01-00AM.png


Also interesting is that so since the push up on Friday, price has been probing down but 'value' hasn't. More volume has been executing above that 1370 value area on Friday than below it.

8-2-20129-04-12AM.png


Bigger picture doesn't look too bearish but we could well be headed down to 1330 before we push up again.

8-2-20129-10-35AM.png


Volume is up overnight 400k above average. Looks bearish but I can't help but feel the market got a bit overextended there off that news.

Short - 1387.50 - top of the range, 1385, 1381, 1370.75, 1367.75
Longs - 1356

Other than that, a play it by ear day but a day to let it settle after the open for sure.
 
Market went down to ONL, 1356 and took off, leaving me for dust.

9:35 Got long on a pullback 1360.25 with a wider than normal (2 point) stop as it is volatile. Not a precise entry but it's really moving about. Needed it to hold the open after entry – open @ 1359.50.

9:39 – seemed to be doing an Ok job with holding the open, went down thru 2 ticks but no real volume hit into the bids

9:40 - T1 – 1361.75 (6 ticks)
9:45 - T2 – 1363.25 (12 ticks)

Now @ b/e will hold into the news
 
btw - today will have my last target BEFORE the point @ which I would be looking for a potential short (yesterdays low)
 
GrandSupercycle said:
Bearish SPX daily & weekly chart reasserts itself and dominates again after Draghi comments.

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@grandsupercycle
Click to expand...

It is dangerous to make that assumption on a daily chart which has not even completed yet.

What if we close near yesterdays close?

Will that still be bearish?

Just interested
 
Out on the news 10:00:45 - 1363.50

T3 - 13 ticks - not much of a move off the news & it was a bit negative, so put out a limit order to exit.
 
Yup - one of those days it looks simple in hindsight. I did nothing after that first trade. Looking back, the push through yesterdays low, then a failure to get a new high combined with a failure to close the gap was a beaut. IN HINDSIGHT!

Rob - do you ever watch the swing sizes when it makes a sustained move? 2nd or 3rd time into a measured move can be quite fruitful, esp if the pullback occurs with little or no shift in the delta.

8-2-201212-22-47PM.png
 
Yes I do but probably not in a scientific way - I am generally watching the size of the rotations and looking for when delta plateaus/turns as an indication of a change of direction.....

I am generally not thinking of getting in once it has moved off from the turning point. My view is that the boat has sailed and I just have to wait for the next boat....
 
Fri Aug 3

12:29am AUD AIG Services Index 46.5 48.8
2:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.6 56.7
8:15am EUR Spanish Services PMI 43.4
8:45am EUR Italian Services PMI 43.5 43.1
9:00am EUR Final Services PMI 47.6 47.6
9:30am GBP Services PMI 51.6 51.3
10:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.1% 0.6%
1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 101K 80K
1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 8.2% 8.2%
1:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.3%
3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.1 52.1
 
robster970 said:
Yes I do but probably not in a scientific way - I am generally watching the size of the rotations and looking for when delta plateaus/turns as an indication of a change of direction.....

I am generally not thinking of getting in once it has moved off from the turning point. My view is that the boat has sailed and I just have to wait for the next boat....
Click to expand...

To me, I see these places as a nice, uncrowded place to enter the market. I don't care about catching the whole move, if it's not clear - let other people participate in the reversal.

I'll take the crumbs...
 
3rd August Asia mixed, Europe up, US up pre market

PMI & 10am - watch out for that.
Overnight volume slightly above average (90k above)
July high fairly close @ 1387.50

Daily
8-3-20128-49-31AM.png


30 Min
8-3-20128-49-55AM.png


It appears that the last 6 trading days have been balancing around 1358-1384.2. We are near the top of short term and long term balance areas, so unless something changes, we should head down again.

Most of yesterdays trading was around 1360, so 'value wise' we are heading south.

If we don't see above average volume/new money coming in, then I think day traders will take it back down.

Shorts 1395.25, 1387.50-1388.00, 1383 (yesterdays high, although it's abt to be taken out), ONH - whatever it turns out to be.,
Longs - pullbacks if we get a push up (jump on the trend), 1364.00, 1362.25, the open price, 1357, 1349
 
Waiting for it to take out the high from earlier in the week and go for a pocket of liquidity around 95 level. Maybe today. Maybe not. Looks like it is base building around 86 before continuing.
 
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