S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2014 with PRIZES!

2023.85 :clover:

Cheers guys I had fun on my first try at the competition!

Thanks Atilla for organising this.
 

Hmmm 2008 to 2011 changed from a down move to an up move, a little tactical play maybe?
As long as Lexy goes the same way as me, mathematically he cant lose!
Shame on you Lexy :p
 
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1977.05 Final answer.
Who wants to be a millionaire anyway, err well I do actually. :D
 
Hi Guys,

I can see there is some tactical forecasting going on and we've had this before and will have it again I'm sure as competition is close at the top.

For future games I think we'll need to implement some new steps. I was thinking the following...

Forecasts should be mailed to me or Pat or to any body of your choice so it is hidden until after markets open. Effectively, having secret forecasts so they can't be changed.

How does that sound. Let me know what you think? Open to suggestions too.


Good luck (y)
 
Hi Guys,

I can see there is some tactical forecasting going on and we've had this before and will have it again I'm sure as competition is close at the top.

For future games I think we'll need to implement some new steps. I was thinking the following...

Forecasts should be mailed to me or Pat or to any body of your choice so it is hidden until after markets open. Effectively, having secret forecasts so they can't be changed.

How does that sound. Let me know what you think?

Good luck (y)

I am quite happy with the present system or as you suggest if it is a tight race between say 2 players, like now. I would like to make 1 suggestion, if I may ?
That the winner let's the rest of us in on his method a bit. We may learn something useful. Not all play but a more serious objective too. By pm or email if he doesn't want it broadcast to the world.
 
Used to have similar issues towards the end of the old FX comps.
Postman changes his guess to make sure he's on the different side to Lexcorp
Lexcorp changes his guess to try to make sure he's on the same side as Postman! :)
They're Both playing the same game. Playing 'each other' rather than their actual 'guess' ;)
Lexcorp could have changed his back down again after Postman changes his with a few seconds to spare if he'd wanted too lol

I think that maybe for the last few weeks of each quarter when it's potentially close between payers, they have to be 'secret' guesses, maybe?
 

Used to have similar issues towards the end of the old FX comps.
Postman changes his guess to make sure he's on the different side to Lexcorp
Lexcorp changes his guess to try to make sure he's on the same side as Postman! :)
They're Both playing the same game. Playing 'each other' rather than their actual 'guess' ;)
Lexcorp could have changed his back down again after Postman changes his with a few seconds to spare if he'd wanted too lol

I think that maybe for the last few weeks of each quarter when it's potentially close between payers, they have to be 'secret' guesses, maybe?

I was just reminded at the last minute Mercury was in retrograde on 4th Oct and I hadn't factored that in to my calculations. :whistling

http://www.almanac.com/content/mercury-retrograde
 
I am quite happy with the present system or as you suggest if it is a tight race between say 2 players, like now. I would like to make 1 suggestion, if I may ?
That the winner let's the rest of us in on his method a bit. We may learn something useful. Not all play but a more serious objective too. By pm or email if he doesn't want it broadcast to the world.

I dont have the best charting package in the world and this is a rough screen shot on the hourly.
The trend line is actually from a one minute chart but wont go back far enough or forward to Friday to show any detail.

Hope this shows people some of the thinking behind it.

More than happy to share other chart guesses especially the 0.03 points away. That wasn't just random.

Its not about the past but looking to the future. ;)
 

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Perhaps even when the podium points are added in it is a dead-heat then the one nearest to the close.
 
Lexcorp could have changed his back down again after Postman changes his with a few seconds to spare if he'd wanted too lol

I thought about it!
I knew he'd change his to down just before the open, lol
All fun and games :)
 
Good to see cut and thrust in the competition and determination for the win. Even better it is conducted in good jovial humour with no grumps (y)

However, I think sort of pm-ed sealed forecasts to two third party's who are out of the running to winning a prize (eg: in this case it could have been Pat & I) has to be the way to bring good practice and order to the game!

Next quarter going forward we can add that to the rules - how does that sound Pat et al?
 
Hi guys,

Final deciding forecast for QTR-3 and wishing you all the best of luck.

League Table here...

I've taken the most recent forecasts so I hope they are what you wanted. Please let me know if I have got any of the numbers wrong.

Bulls to bears as usual. Malaguti is feeling very bullish and yours truly still very much the bear.

I think Thursday may be a swing day with Friday being one of quiet reflection. Either way it is going to be interesting finale to Quarter-3 competition thus far. :clap::clap::clap:
 
Good to see cut and thrust in the competition and determination for the win. Even better it is conducted in good jovial humour with no grumps (y)

However, I think sort of pm-ed sealed forecasts to two third party's who are out of the running to winning a prize (eg: in this case it could have been Pat & I) has to be the way to bring good practice and order to the game!

Next quarter going forward we can add that to the rules - how does that sound Pat et al?

Sounds fair to me
 
Good to see cut and thrust in the competition and determination for the win. Even better it is conducted in good jovial humour with no grumps (y)

However, I think sort of pm-ed sealed forecasts to two third party's who are out of the running to winning a prize (eg: in this case it could have been Pat & I) has to be the way to bring good practice and order to the game!

Next quarter going forward we can add that to the rules - how does that sound Pat et al?

Works for me. As you know I have PM'd you my real numbers in advanced more than once. :smart:
 
Sounds fair to me

Thanks Pat,

We'll do this from next week on-wards then. I also think the end of year finals may get heated as they are also close at the top.

Great stuff. Looking forward to Christmas already :clap:

:)
 
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