wackypete2
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1939.5 
Peter
Peter
Pat494
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By Nigel Stephenson
LONDON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - European stocks rose on Friday, on track for the year's biggest weekly gains, while German Bund yields held near record lows as recent weak data increased expectations of further central bank action to revive the economy.
The euro, which fell against the dollar on Thursday after data showed Europe's powerhouse economy Germany unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, regained lost ground on Friday but remained near nine-month lows.
The relatively unusual phenomenon of stocks and highly rated bond prices, which move inversely to yields, rising at the same time follows a reassessment of the euro zone's growth outlook and the likelihood of the European Central Bank further easing monetary policy via a bond-buying quantitative easing programme.
U.S. shares also looked set for gains, as indicated by stock index futures.
"Fixed income is behaving like it's a risk-off market. Equities, on the other hand, are being supported by the fact that bad news is good news," said Vanessa Pham, senior analyst at private wealth firm Stanhope Capital.
"You've got all the central banks saying they are ready to step in. It's more of a leap of faith in Europe...that (ECB President Mario) Draghi will come in and do outright QE as aggressively as the U.S.. As long as people believe what he is saying they will support the market."
On Friday, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.8 percent in early trade, rising for the fourth day in five, helped by the world's biggest miner, BHP Billiton (NYSE: BBL - news) , saying it could spin off assets.
The index is up 2.5 percent for the week, a performance not matched since the week ending Dec. 20.
Asian shares rose, with MSCI (NYSE: MSCI - news) 's main index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.2 percent. Tokyo's Nikkei index ended flat but with a 3.7 percent gain for the week, its biggest since mid-April.
Investors also kept a wary eye on the progress of a Russian aid convoy halted on the border with Ukraine.
Comments perceived as conciliatory from President Vladimir Putin helped lift Wall Street on Thursday, along with weak jobs data suggesting the Fed would not raise interest rates soon.
However, the presence of dozens of Russian military vehicles near the border with Ukraine kept tension high.
Sub-par economic data, which also showed the entire euro zone stagnated in the three months to end-June and inflation was just 0.4 percent in July, has helped drive German 10-year bond yields to record lows below 1 percent this week and led investors to raise their bets on the ECB launching QE.
Ten-year German yields, which have also been pushed lower by investors concerned about conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East seeking a safe assets, were all but flat on Friday at 1.013 percent, having briefly dipped below 1 percent the previous day, according to traders.
Yields have fallen for six weeks in succession.
The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.3382 but still close to last week's nine-month low of $1.3333 and on track to end lower for the week. Some analysts saw the euro pausing at these levels.
"With plenty of bad news from the euro zone behind us and investors adjusting their expectations lower, it may be more difficult for euro/dollar to fall from here, based on bad news from the euro zone only," said Petr Krpata, analyst at ING.
JACKSON HOLE
He said investors would look to the annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers at the end of next week for more clues to future U.S. monetary policy.
The dollar was up at 102.56 yen and sterling, which fell earlier this week after the Bank of England made it clear it was in no hurry to raise interest rates, edged up to $1.6693, having hit a four-month low of $1.6657 on Thursday.
U.S. Treasury yields remained close to recent lows. The 10-year note yielded 2.394 percent, unchanged from the New York close.
Worries about economic weakness and potential demand for oil weighed on Brent crude. The price added 40 cents to $102.50 a barrel due to weakness in the dollar but held close to 13-month lows.
Gold rose 0.1 percent towards $1,314 an ounce and was set for a second consecutive week of gains.
LONDON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - European stocks rose on Friday, on track for the year's biggest weekly gains, while German Bund yields held near record lows as recent weak data increased expectations of further central bank action to revive the economy.
The euro, which fell against the dollar on Thursday after data showed Europe's powerhouse economy Germany unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, regained lost ground on Friday but remained near nine-month lows.
The relatively unusual phenomenon of stocks and highly rated bond prices, which move inversely to yields, rising at the same time follows a reassessment of the euro zone's growth outlook and the likelihood of the European Central Bank further easing monetary policy via a bond-buying quantitative easing programme.
U.S. shares also looked set for gains, as indicated by stock index futures.
"Fixed income is behaving like it's a risk-off market. Equities, on the other hand, are being supported by the fact that bad news is good news," said Vanessa Pham, senior analyst at private wealth firm Stanhope Capital.
"You've got all the central banks saying they are ready to step in. It's more of a leap of faith in Europe...that (ECB President Mario) Draghi will come in and do outright QE as aggressively as the U.S.. As long as people believe what he is saying they will support the market."
On Friday, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.8 percent in early trade, rising for the fourth day in five, helped by the world's biggest miner, BHP Billiton (NYSE: BBL - news) , saying it could spin off assets.
The index is up 2.5 percent for the week, a performance not matched since the week ending Dec. 20.
Asian shares rose, with MSCI (NYSE: MSCI - news) 's main index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.2 percent. Tokyo's Nikkei index ended flat but with a 3.7 percent gain for the week, its biggest since mid-April.
Investors also kept a wary eye on the progress of a Russian aid convoy halted on the border with Ukraine.
Comments perceived as conciliatory from President Vladimir Putin helped lift Wall Street on Thursday, along with weak jobs data suggesting the Fed would not raise interest rates soon.
However, the presence of dozens of Russian military vehicles near the border with Ukraine kept tension high.
Sub-par economic data, which also showed the entire euro zone stagnated in the three months to end-June and inflation was just 0.4 percent in July, has helped drive German 10-year bond yields to record lows below 1 percent this week and led investors to raise their bets on the ECB launching QE.
Ten-year German yields, which have also been pushed lower by investors concerned about conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East seeking a safe assets, were all but flat on Friday at 1.013 percent, having briefly dipped below 1 percent the previous day, according to traders.
Yields have fallen for six weeks in succession.
The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.3382 but still close to last week's nine-month low of $1.3333 and on track to end lower for the week. Some analysts saw the euro pausing at these levels.
"With plenty of bad news from the euro zone behind us and investors adjusting their expectations lower, it may be more difficult for euro/dollar to fall from here, based on bad news from the euro zone only," said Petr Krpata, analyst at ING.
JACKSON HOLE
He said investors would look to the annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers at the end of next week for more clues to future U.S. monetary policy.
The dollar was up at 102.56 yen and sterling, which fell earlier this week after the Bank of England made it clear it was in no hurry to raise interest rates, edged up to $1.6693, having hit a four-month low of $1.6657 on Thursday.
U.S. Treasury yields remained close to recent lows. The 10-year note yielded 2.394 percent, unchanged from the New York close.
Worries about economic weakness and potential demand for oil weighed on Brent crude. The price added 40 cents to $102.50 a barrel due to weakness in the dollar but held close to 13-month lows.
Gold rose 0.1 percent towards $1,314 an ounce and was set for a second consecutive week of gains.
Atilla
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I'm expecting a failed attempt - Lower High and further downside before another serious attempt @ 2000 before the end of the year.
I don't see any risks to the global economy but more saturation, lack of demand and excess supply. Ukraine is much ado about nothing as Iraq is. ISIS is a simple tool for the long term plan to implement the axis-of-evil to take the oil out of Iraq and Iran by destabilising the three countries including Syria. ISIS is also supported by Turkey and US of A so I'm really gob-smacked to hear all the BS news about them. Maliki has already stepped down and an inclusive government (meaning a devided one to share oil money and power with the Kurds and Sunni's) is on track. Devided Ukraine is pretty much what is likely to be the outcome too. I have no idea why people don't simply sit round a table and discuss. A litle like cutting up a pizza into slices and distribute round the table.
The ME is the same as ever. Gaza is about significant as the house of Sauidis thinks it to be. If there is a risk it's in the South China seas with Japan. Price of oil and gold reflects this scenario...
"Fixed income is behaving like it's a risk-off market. Equities, on the other hand, are being supported by the fact that bad news is good news," said Vanessa Pham, senior analyst at private wealth firm Stanhope Capital.
With government debt at astro-levels it only makes sense to keep interest rates down. FI low yields is a no brainer. As for equities, there is no bad news just the absence of any significant news. The news that's fed out to the average lay man is a bag of shyte. imho.
We need a new killer invention or discovery. Creative Destruction effectively.
Otherwise we'll continue with people who have it all and confused about what else they should want versus people who have nothing and increasingly confused about what they want and / or need.
Same ol tripe that keeps us on the wheel of fortune
Whilst I'm on form with my rant - 1932 - In Great Britain the Archbishop of Canterbury forbids Anglican church remarriage of divorced persons (WTF was that about - forbid??? :-0 )
I don't see any risks to the global economy but more saturation, lack of demand and excess supply. Ukraine is much ado about nothing as Iraq is. ISIS is a simple tool for the long term plan to implement the axis-of-evil to take the oil out of Iraq and Iran by destabilising the three countries including Syria. ISIS is also supported by Turkey and US of A so I'm really gob-smacked to hear all the BS news about them. Maliki has already stepped down and an inclusive government (meaning a devided one to share oil money and power with the Kurds and Sunni's) is on track. Devided Ukraine is pretty much what is likely to be the outcome too. I have no idea why people don't simply sit round a table and discuss. A litle like cutting up a pizza into slices and distribute round the table.
The ME is the same as ever. Gaza is about significant as the house of Sauidis thinks it to be. If there is a risk it's in the South China seas with Japan. Price of oil and gold reflects this scenario...
"Fixed income is behaving like it's a risk-off market. Equities, on the other hand, are being supported by the fact that bad news is good news," said Vanessa Pham, senior analyst at private wealth firm Stanhope Capital.
With government debt at astro-levels it only makes sense to keep interest rates down. FI low yields is a no brainer. As for equities, there is no bad news just the absence of any significant news. The news that's fed out to the average lay man is a bag of shyte. imho.
We need a new killer invention or discovery. Creative Destruction effectively.
Otherwise we'll continue with people who have it all and confused about what else they should want versus people who have nothing and increasingly confused about what they want and / or need.
Same ol tripe that keeps us on the wheel of fortune
Whilst I'm on form with my rant - 1932 - In Great Britain the Archbishop of Canterbury forbids Anglican church remarriage of divorced persons (WTF was that about - forbid??? :-0 )
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Pat494
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Whilst I'm on form with my rant - 1932 - In Great Britain the Archbishop of Canterbury forbids Anglican church remarriage of divorced persons (WTF was that about - forbid??? :-0 )
Back in those days knights were bold and women were grateful.
P
postman
1957.64 (approximately) for me this week.
samspade79
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1991
P
postman
Tardy boy again. :innocent:
Pat494
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Atilla
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Oy ref - he's late !!
Will he or won't he accept this forecast ?
Only kidding mate
Well because and ONLY because 1991 is symmetrical and well balanced I think it should stand.
Moreover, 1991 is only dividable by 11 and 181 which are also beautifully well balanced numbers.
To top it up, Samspade was only 8 minutes late. Which in it self is a very lucky well balanced number too. It reflects the ying and yang of life.
There is something very magical in these numbers.
Good luck 2 you all
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Atilla
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Hey guys,
League table updated with bulls to bears. Malaguti is most optimistic with me being the most pessimistic in the forecasting crew.
Good to see we have TwinToWin back again and whilst few members sadly missing. Consistency is the name of the game (said with a Brucy accent)...
Wishing you all good luck in these interesting times...
PS... Optimism knows no bounds. Question is can it fly off a cliff? I am biased imo ofcourse. :cheesy:
League table updated with bulls to bears. Malaguti is most optimistic with me being the most pessimistic in the forecasting crew.
Good to see we have TwinToWin back again and whilst few members sadly missing. Consistency is the name of the game (said with a Brucy accent)...
Wishing you all good luck in these interesting times...
PS... Optimism knows no bounds. Question is can it fly off a cliff? I am biased imo ofcourse. :cheesy:
Atilla
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Well done to Samspade who takes gold this week. Snatching victory from Gaffs and Malaguti... :clap::clap:
No complaints from any of the other forecasters for the late call and I'm glad good sportsmenship exists in the pack.
However, we should remind Samspade that being late is naughty behaviour.
................................................................Samspade
............................Gaffs.........................................................................Malaguti
League table here...
5 weeks to go and only 6 points separating top 7 forecasters. Competition is wide open for Qtr3 with Weighted Average still in the lead with 15 points.
:clap:No complaints from any of the other forecasters for the late call and I'm glad good sportsmenship exists in the pack.
However, we should remind Samspade that being late is naughty behaviour.
................................................................Samspade
............................Gaffs.........................................................................Malaguti
League table here...
5 weeks to go and only 6 points separating top 7 forecasters. Competition is wide open for Qtr3 with Weighted Average still in the lead with 15 points.
Last edited:
Pat494
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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday rebuffed pressure from inflation hawks to move faster toward a rate hike, saying the US jobs market still shows slack despite recent gains.
But the European Central Bank's Mario Draghi, also addressing the Fed's central banker symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said the ECB was ready to respond to demands for more stimulus as the eurozone economy stalls.
In her much-awaited speech on the labor market, Yellen said US monetary policy needed to be pragmatic, not defined by models but focused on what a range of data says.
She acknowledged the rising calls for preemptive action to head off inflation, including from a growing minority within the Fed.
And she admitted that interpreting the data on the US labor market since the Great Recession of 2008-2009 has become more complex, difficult to determine which patterns are cyclical and which represent deep structural and societal changes.
"The assessment of labor market slack is rarely simple and has been especially challenging recently," she told the symposium.
Still, she stressed that even if the unemployment rate has fallen more quickly than expected to 6.2 percent, there remains "considerable uncertainty about the level of employment."
Taken together, she said, the data suggests that the jobless rate decline "somewhat overstates" labor market improvements.
"Five years after the end of the recession, the labor market has yet to fully recover," she said.
The Fed's annual central banker convention in the picturesque Wyoming Rockies opened amid expectations that Yellen might cede ground to the inflation hawks, who argue that the rapid fall of the jobless rate is a clear foretoken of inflation.
They want the timeline for raising the benchmark fed funds rate from zero percent, where it has been for nearly six years, accelerated from the second half of 2015 to closer to the beginning of the year.
Philadelphia Fed chief Charles Plosser, the leading hawk on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), told Bloomberg Radio in Jackson Hole that the Fed needs to get ahead of inflationary pressures.
"I'm very uncomfortable with the notion that we have to keep monetary policy at zero interest rates until the labor market has healed completely," he said.
"The longer we wait, the bigger we risk we'll have to raise interest rates faster when the time comes."
But Yellen, still in her first year as Fed chair, stuck to her guns, while allowing that if the economy starts moving faster than expected, "then increases in the federal funds rate target could come sooner than the committee currently expects."
That means, analysts said, that the Fed is not ready to shift gears.
"Yellen confirmed the majority view of the FOMC: Much more labor recovery is needed before the Fed raises policy rates," said David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors.
- ECB prepared to act -
Draghi meanwhile responded to increasing pressure on the ECB to take more action as the eurozone economy stalls.
He said the ECB's June rate cuts will help growth, but that the bank is poised to take further action.
"I am confident that the package of measures we announced in June will indeed provide the intended boost to demand, and we stand ready to adjust our policy stance further," he said.
He said the ECB is preparing a program of bond purchases, like the Fed's now-expiring quantitative easing program, saying "it should contribute to further credit easing."
But he also urged eurozone leaders to moderate austerity measures, within eurozone rules, to enhance job creation.
"It would be helpful for the overall stance of policy if fiscal policy could play a greater role alongside monetary policy," he said.
"There is leeway to achieve a more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies," while implementing needed structural reforms over the medium term.
But the European Central Bank's Mario Draghi, also addressing the Fed's central banker symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said the ECB was ready to respond to demands for more stimulus as the eurozone economy stalls.
In her much-awaited speech on the labor market, Yellen said US monetary policy needed to be pragmatic, not defined by models but focused on what a range of data says.
She acknowledged the rising calls for preemptive action to head off inflation, including from a growing minority within the Fed.
And she admitted that interpreting the data on the US labor market since the Great Recession of 2008-2009 has become more complex, difficult to determine which patterns are cyclical and which represent deep structural and societal changes.
"The assessment of labor market slack is rarely simple and has been especially challenging recently," she told the symposium.
Still, she stressed that even if the unemployment rate has fallen more quickly than expected to 6.2 percent, there remains "considerable uncertainty about the level of employment."
Taken together, she said, the data suggests that the jobless rate decline "somewhat overstates" labor market improvements.
"Five years after the end of the recession, the labor market has yet to fully recover," she said.
The Fed's annual central banker convention in the picturesque Wyoming Rockies opened amid expectations that Yellen might cede ground to the inflation hawks, who argue that the rapid fall of the jobless rate is a clear foretoken of inflation.
They want the timeline for raising the benchmark fed funds rate from zero percent, where it has been for nearly six years, accelerated from the second half of 2015 to closer to the beginning of the year.
Philadelphia Fed chief Charles Plosser, the leading hawk on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), told Bloomberg Radio in Jackson Hole that the Fed needs to get ahead of inflationary pressures.
"I'm very uncomfortable with the notion that we have to keep monetary policy at zero interest rates until the labor market has healed completely," he said.
"The longer we wait, the bigger we risk we'll have to raise interest rates faster when the time comes."
But Yellen, still in her first year as Fed chair, stuck to her guns, while allowing that if the economy starts moving faster than expected, "then increases in the federal funds rate target could come sooner than the committee currently expects."
That means, analysts said, that the Fed is not ready to shift gears.
"Yellen confirmed the majority view of the FOMC: Much more labor recovery is needed before the Fed raises policy rates," said David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors.
- ECB prepared to act -
Draghi meanwhile responded to increasing pressure on the ECB to take more action as the eurozone economy stalls.
He said the ECB's June rate cuts will help growth, but that the bank is poised to take further action.
"I am confident that the package of measures we announced in June will indeed provide the intended boost to demand, and we stand ready to adjust our policy stance further," he said.
He said the ECB is preparing a program of bond purchases, like the Fed's now-expiring quantitative easing program, saying "it should contribute to further credit easing."
But he also urged eurozone leaders to moderate austerity measures, within eurozone rules, to enhance job creation.
"It would be helpful for the overall stance of policy if fiscal policy could play a greater role alongside monetary policy," he said.
"There is leeway to achieve a more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies," while implementing needed structural reforms over the medium term.
Well done to Samspade who takes gold this week. Snatching victory from Gaffs and Malaguti... :clap:
No complaints from any of the other forecasters for the late call and I'm glad good sportsmenship exists in the pack.
However, we should remind Samspade that being late is naughty behaviour.
................................................................Samspade
............................Gaffs.........................................................................Malaguti
League table here...
5 weeks to go and only 6 points separating top 7 forecasters. Competition is wide open for Qtr3 with Weighted Average still in the lead with 15 points.
Samspade.....grats and Tisk
1964 for me please
