price & stops

[counter_violent]

What timeframe do you think the chart below is? And if you went long at the green dot or short at the red dot (for example), how tight could your stop be if you would place it below or above the last swing?

This is very telling

Using a tick chart as the basis of your trading...no wonder all your time is spent staring at screens until your eyes bleed...additionally...this type of trading is a very crude way of top or bottom fishing....with I might add...a lot of stop outs along the way...small stop out yes...but lots of them.

I have better things to do with my trading screen time.

 

[Grey1]

To help my fellow traders and lead the board may I kindly ask you guys to read this text .. This is a NO NONE SENSE research and vital IMHO in your LONG term performance,,

Papers such as this are life changing ,,,
This paper supports my argument about volatilty stoploss and avoidence of tight stoploss.

WIDEN YOUR STOP REDUCE POS SIZE AND LET PROFIT RUN .. ( donot just widen your stop you must also reduce pos size lol )

Grey1

 

[firewalker99]

This is very telling

Using a tick chart as the basis of your trading...no wonder all your time is spent staring at screens until your eyes bleed...additionally...this type of trading is a very crude way of top or bottom fishing....with I might add...a lot of stop outs along the way...small stop out yes...but lots of them.

I have better things to do with my trading screen time.

I think you are completely missing the point. This has nothing to do with top or bottom fishing. I enter high probability trades at important S/R levels. My hard stop gets hit seldom, and if the trade doesn't move in my favour I prefer to stop myself out without a loss, then take -40 or -50 just because there happens to be "a bit of volatility".

What would you rather have:

This:
0 / 0 / +80 / -10 / 0 / +100 / 0 / -10 / +450 / -10

Or this:
-40 / -40 / +80 / -10 / -40 / +100 / -40 / -10 / +450 / -10

 

[arabianights]

Grey problem is they've modeled that with three random walks all variants of brownian motion, missing out the outliers in their theoretical research... but it's those outliers where the stop becomes most important. They try to dismiss this in appendix C and D (about distribution being important) but not through a logical/statistical argument so much as hand waving... And no consideration is given to distribution changing over time.

Although I only glanced at the paper.

 

[firewalker99]

Grey problem is they've modeled that with three random walks all variants of brownian motion, missing out the outliers in their theoretical research... but it's those outliers where the stop becomes most important. They try to dismiss this in appendix C and D (about distribution being important) but not through a logical/statistical argument so much as hand waving... And no consideration is given to distribution changing over time.

Although I only glanced at the paper.

I don't know why Grey keeps bringing up all these papers. Does he need research from others to back him up? I sure don't, I just put up a chart and tell it. Very simple and straightforward. Saves both space and time. No complex intricate methods necessary. I guess it helps if one wants to "look like a pro". He should take some advice from c_v:

A
I'm a firm believer in the saying..."less is more"...as a result of this I tend to use One liners to get the message across....

 

[firewalker99]

I have better things to do with my trading screen time.

I wouldn't worry about my screentime. It took me 7 minutes to make exactly 317 points on this short a week ago.
The stop was 20 points and moved to breakeven 15 seconds after the entry. If anyone has a better way of managing risk, volatility and targets, I'm all ears

Oh and fwiw, the short was made real time on another site and occurred about 1 minute after the open. After 8 minutes I was done. Not bad for a Friday. The third chart shows how it looked on a 5 minute chart. No wonder you need 50 point stops

 

[Grey1]

Grey problem is they've modeled that with three random walks all variants of brownian motion, missing out the outliers in their theoretical research... but it's those outliers where the stop becomes most important. They try to dismiss this in appendix C and D (about distribution being important) but not through a logical/statistical argument so much as hand waving... And no consideration is given to distribution changing over time.

Although I only glanced at the paper.

This is the because it is the simplest form of continutity in the stochastic process. if you were to assign more than 1 variable to the time series then the research would bias toward some kind of stop loss which I have pointed out myself in my earlier post last night .

grey1

Grey1

 

[Grey1]

I don't know why Grey keeps bringing up all these papers. Does he need research from others to back him up? I sure don't, I just put up a chart and tell it. Very simple and straightforward. Saves both space and time. No complex intricate methods necessary. I guess it helps if one wants to "look like a pro". He should take some advice from c_v:

you obvioulsy donot understand defending from theoretical concepts needs references,, Well at least this is what UK universities require in all their research dept.. Unless you like ur mate WASP think we should close all our universities and listen to you . DUHhhhh
God help us all lol

Grey1

 

[firewalker99]

you obvioulsy donot understand defending from theoretical concepts needs references,, Well at least this is what UK universities require in all their research dept.. Unless you like ur mate WASP think we should close all ur universities and listen to you . DUHhhhh
God help us all lol

Grey1

What you should do is go around and ask how many of the academic world are successful traders. I'm sure that would make a very interesting paper.

As for wasp, I wouldn't dare to argue with the most highly ranked individual of this website!

 

[Paul71]

This is very telling

Using a tick chart as the basis of your trading...no wonder all your time is spent staring at screens until your eyes bleed...additionally...this type of trading is a very crude way of top or bottom fishing....with I might add...a lot of stop outs along the way...small stop out yes...but lots of them.

I have better things to do with my trading screen time.

CV, look at all the charts posted on this site, bud. Look at all the lovely horizontal lines drawn, the obligatory hand written comments, arrows, pointers etc.

Either them lines are meaningful, or they don't mean FA.

But to mean something in the very real world of trading, they have to be tradable, and 50pt stops don't add up, which ever way anyone wants to cut it.

Go figure, bud.


Also. A lot of the charts are HTFs with spikes going through the lines all over the show, are you telling me you would hang on to long postion when the 15m has gone sell side and hope it's just a spike on the 4 hourly?

 

[counter_violent]

CV, look at all the charts posted on this site, bud. Look at all the lovely horizontal lines drawn, the obligatory hand written comments, arrows, pointers etc.

Either them lines are meaningful, or they don't mean FA.

But to mean something in the very real world of trading, they have to be tradable, and 50pt stops don't add up, which ever way anyone wants to cut it.

Go figure, bud.


Also. A lot of the charts are HTFs with spikes going through the lines all over the show, are you telling me you would hang on to long postion when the 15m has gone sell side and hope it's just a spike on the 4 hourly?

Hello Paul

50 point stops....alien to me ....did I refer to them.

The majority of charts posted here on T2W are meaningless.

Am I about to enlighten everyone and show them what they ought to be looking at....

nope

 

[Paul71]

Hello Paul

50 point stops....alien to me ....did I refer to them.

The majority of charts posted here on T2W are meaningless.

Am I about to enlighten everyone and show them what they ought to be looking at....

nope

I should have put a smiley on somewhere, it shows less aggression, me being a nit wit, i didn't. My post wasn't aimed at you too personally CV, but to anybody who has actually got a really high boredom threshold.

 

[wasp]

Am I about to enlighten everyone and show them what they ought to be looking at....

nope

Doesn't that defeat the purpose of contributing to a forum for discussing trading then? Along with Grey1's ego's desire to be told he is right, rather than approach this with an open mind.

I am more than intrigued to discuss the virtues and merits of each view with details but anyone who insists they are right from the outset without wealth to combat Buffet is gonna get......

 

[trader_dante]

For someone who (used to?) give out very decent advice and information to newbies, this is disappointing to read. "Whether I blow up in the future does not come down to it." ??? Please... that's exactly the mindset that will get many killed.

Dude, I don't mean whether I (as in me, Tom) blow up...I mean as in the Trader with the 400 point stop...take spanish89...used huge stops...everyone told him he would blow up...unfortunately for them until he does blow up, he is proving himself to be remarkably good at generating cash which is, after all, what most of us are in the game for.

But I'll take you up on an offer of getting a better entry on a lower TF...I'll post my entry and exit on an hourly TF...what TF do you want me to post a blank chart of and what indicators e.g. vol etc do you want me to add...?

 

[trader_dante]

Have you figured out which trader makes more money in my real-life (as opposed to "theoretical mathematical") example?

Yes, the one with the wider stops. But not necessarily for the reasons I have stated.

It goes beyond theory and into the realm of psychology infront of the trading screen.

Sometimes tighter entry means tighter exit.

Too many trees and no wood visible.

I sit with short term traders all day long.

I know how they live and breathe.

Lets prove it.

Whoever uses tight stops and wants to prove their point can have a trade off with me.

Real time calls.

Real money on the line.

 

[trader_dante]

I do not understand the constant reference to gloating or boasting. I am trying to explain what EVERY trader should be aiming for, not just the elitists. Let's say you did use a 400 point stop, are you honestly suggesting that if the market moved against you 399 points you would still accept your entry was good? Seriously?! 399 makes it a good entry and just 1 point, 1 freaking point, a move of 0.25% in the wrong direction makes it a misjudgement...or volatility!??? Are you for real???

This is an inane comment.

If you got in with a 1.25 ES stop using your amazing execution ability and I get in 398.75 ticks later based on the same reason as you, of course the extra 1.25 ticks makes all the difference in the world.

 

[Paul71]

Yes, the one with the wider stops. But not necessarily for the reasons I have stated.

It goes beyond theory and into the realm of psychology infront of the trading screen.

Sometimes tighter entry means tighter exit.

Too many trees and no wood visible.

I sit with short term traders all day long.

I know how they live and breathe.

Lets prove it.

Whoever uses tight stops and wants to prove their point can have a trade off with me.

Real time calls.

Real money on the line.

$625 gets you a 50 tick stop on the ES, Tom. So what will i gain? Nothing more than comments like,.."you can't prove those kinds of trades", "there's no way you got in there", "Mmm, that ones questionable".

I'll give you $625 on the ES, no more.

You make your trade on monday or whatever on a thread, then i'll make mine.

Go study chief, you'll need it.

 

[wasp]

my humble view..........

*my bad.. changed my mind mid annotating.. should read 'risk $100' - plus, trader B can't obviously trade $3.33

 

[Paul71]

Oh and by the way TD, try and make your own decision, i know you are thinking of that ES specialist two seats away from you who has his own screens to give you the all important nod,....but maybe one day you'll progress from telephone orders. Ha ha ha!


Only joking mate.

 

[trader_dante]

I'll give you $625 on the ES, no more.

WTF mate, risk management at my firm won't even let me trade unless I commit at least three times that

I don't trade like everyone else there. I wait until I determine the probability of success in capturing a swing to be at its highest and I personally use the higher TFs to determine that.

If I pay a premium for this knowledge, then that is the way it is. But I don't f*ck around like the other QFA and ES traders. 5 tick stops et al.

I wait and I commit.

One shot for the big move.